Stocks & Crypto

[Ros]

On 3.2.2023. at 16:58, mustang said:

Ne bih da sam dosadna, al ko moze nek uzme Teslu na long run, nece se pokajati. Jos je relativno nisko oko $195 

 

@Ayatollah

ziva bila

za uzvrat: film Last Kingdom izlazi 13. Aprila

[nenad]

10 hours ago, Lezilebovich said:

 

Samo da podsetim na ovo sprdanje sa Mustang, a deluje da je bila u pravu

 

 

istine radi, ja se (ovom prilikom) nisam sprdao sa mustang, vec izneo svoje misljenje o ceni akcije.

 

[Mel]

Cak i da nije bila u pravu, niko nema kristalnu kuglu?

[Venom]

38. minut, poveli 2:1. Sudija sviraj kraj!

 

Uzeo sam da čitam A Random Walk Down Wall Street i autor je prilično ubedljiv u dokazivanju da je kretanje na berzi nemoguće predvideti. Jedan primer je da je portfolio izabran bacanjem pikado strelica bio mislim ili tu negde ili čak bolji od onog koji su birali "profesionalaci". U najboljem slučaju možeš povremeno da se nađeš na pravom mestu u pravo vreme, ali ko se dugo igra s vatrom na kraju pregori. Poslednji primer je Cathie Wood: astronomski uspon i onda isti takav pad. Takođe što kaže izreka "a broken clock is right twice a day" -- u svakom trenutku je neko negde u pravu, ali to je sve fiktivno. Jedina prava mera je kakav ti je rezultat u periodu od 10-20-30 godina. Takvih koji su otišli daleko iznad proseka na duže staze je iznenađujuće malo.

[Zverilla]

9 hours ago, Mel said:

Cak i da nije bila u pravu, niko nema kristalnu kuglu?

Naravno da nema, ali ona često pise toliko samouvereno, kao da je ima. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Zverilla

[Mel]

14 hours ago, Zverilla said:

Naravno da nema, ali ona često pise toliko samouvereno, kao da je ima. 

 

Pa dobro, takva je zena.

[Miki_belavista]

On 14. 2. 2023. at 22:39, Shan Jan said:

Samo da javim da smo bili u Severnom Kipru i da moze sve zivo da se pazari sa bitcoinom. Ko ima druge valute moze u menjacnici da ih menja za lire. Meka za kriptomanijake😁

koji je kurs? jel tipa Binance ili neki njihov?

[Shan Jan]

Nisam pitao iskreno samo sam primetio dok sam bio u poseti.

[Budja]

On 15. 2. 2023. at 4:15, Venom said:

38. minut, poveli 2:1. Sudija sviraj kraj!

 

Uzeo sam da čitam A Random Walk Down Wall Street i autor je prilično ubedljiv u dokazivanju da je kretanje na berzi nemoguće predvideti. Jedan primer je da je portfolio izabran bacanjem pikado strelica bio mislim ili tu negde ili čak bolji od onog koji su birali "profesionalaci". U najboljem slučaju možeš povremeno da se nađeš na pravom mestu u pravo vreme, ali ko se dugo igra s vatrom na kraju pregori. Poslednji primer je Cathie Wood: astronomski uspon i onda isti takav pad. Takođe što kaže izreka "a broken clock is right twice a day" -- u svakom trenutku je neko negde u pravu, ali to je sve fiktivno. Jedina prava mera je kakav ti je rezultat u periodu od 10-20-30 godina. Takvih koji su otišli daleko iznad proseka na duže staze je iznenađujuće malo.

 

Malkiel, 1988, klasik.

 

No, time se bavi citava akademska  zajednica jos od Bachelier-a (ne samo traderi).

https://www.historyofdatascience.com/louis-bachelier-an-underappreciated-revolutionary/

[eumeswil]

Evo vam i knjiga Douga Henwooda kad ste već tu sa literaturom, besplatna za skidanje.

 

Wall Street: How It Works and for Whom

https://hbr.org/2012/08/the-wall-street-book-everyone.html

 

Quote

The book is a definitive overview of the financial markets and their economic and political role.

Quote

This book inhabits a strange world between journalism and scholarship: the first three chapters in particular look at the empirical realities of the financial markets — the instruments traded and the agents doing the trading — and then the fourth and fifth chapters look at some of the things economists have said about finance over the past two centuries. I hope that I’ve managed to bring the two normally separate worlds together in an illuminating way, but of course the risk is that I’ll only succeed at alienating both the popular and the academic audience. It’s worth the risk. Most financial journalism is innocent of any theoretical and historical perspective, and academic work — mainstream and radical — is often indifferent to daily practice.

I must confess that I am not a “trained” economist. For someone not
initiated into the priesthood, several years spent exploring the professional literature can be a traumatic experience. One of the finest glosses on that experience came long ago from, of all people, H.L. Mencken, in his essay “The Dismal Science”: “The amateur of such things must be content to wrestle with the professors, seeking the violet of human interest beneath the avalanche of their graceless parts of speech. A hard business, I dare say, to one not practiced, and to its hardness there is added the disquiet of a doubt.” That doubt, Mencken wrote — after conceding that in things economic he was about as orthodox as they come — was inspired by the fact that the discipline

 

hits the employers of the professors where they live. It deals, not with ideas  that affect those employers only occasionally or only indirectly or only as ideas, but with ideas that have an imminent and continuous influence upon their personal welfare and security, and that affect profoundly the very foundations of that social and economic structure upon which their whole existence is based. It is, in brief, the science of the ways and means whereby they have come to such estate, and maintain themselves in such estate, that they are able to hire and boss professors.

 

Apostates, Mencken argued, were far more unwelcome in the field than in others of less material consequence (like, say, literary studies).

 

There are few subspecialties of economics where this is truer than in

finance. The bulk of the finance literature consists of painfully fine-grained studies designed for the owners and managers of money capital. Important matters, like whether the financial markets serve their advertised purpose of allocating social capital effectively, are studied with an infrequency surprising only to someone unfamiliar with Mencken’s Law.

 

But the violet of interests is no longer hidden behind graceless parts of

speech alone; mathematics is now the preferred disguise. The dismal science now flatters itself with delusions of rigor — an elaborate statistical apparatus built on the weakest of foundations, isolated from the other social sciences, not to mention the broader culture, and totally dead to the asking of any fundamental questions about the goals of either the discipline or the organization of economic life itself.

 

I do ask, and I hope answer, lots of those difficult questions, but I also

want to take on the dismal scientists on their own terms. For many non specialist readers, this may seem like heavy going. I’ve tried, wherever possible, to isolate the heavily technical bits and plaster appropriately cautionary headlines on the dangerous sections. But too much writing these days, and not only on the left, consists of anecdote, narrative, moralizing, and exhortation. Even though both the financial markets and the discipline of economics have penetrated so deeply and broadly into much of social life, these institutions remain largely immune to critical examination. The next 300 pages undertake that examination, and perhaps in more detail than some readers might like, but I don’t ever want to lose sight of this simple fact: behind the abstraction known as “the markets” lurks a set of institutions designed to maximize the wealth and power of the most privileged group of people in the world, the creditor–rentier class of the First World and their junior partners in the Third.

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by eumeswil

[mustang]

On 14. 2. 2023. at 15:03, Ros said:

ziva bila

za uzvrat: film Last Kingdom izlazi 13. Aprila

 

Blagodarim 🤗 

Pojma nisam imala da snimaju i film. Samo da je father Biocca tu 

[mustang]

Za ostale sto seru o mojim predviđanjima, kiss my sexy ass. Kad papci budete zaradjivali sestocifreno godisnje ($,€) , mozemo da pricamo. Do tada, shut a fuck up.  

 

(Zakljucila sam da jedino na ovaj nacin mozete da razumete sta pricam). 

Superiornija sam od vas u svakom pogledu na ovu temu. A htela sam da vam pomognem da i vama bude bolje, da manje radite a vise zaradjujete.... 

 

Nema te knjige niti pravila za berzu. U pravu je skoro onaj iznad. Sve je u informaciji a ni to nista ne znaci ako neko betuje protiv iste. 

 

Sajonara. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by mustang

[Willow]

Interesantan članak, možda nekom bude od koristi:  How much can you REALLY expect to earn investing?

[Ayatollah]

Opet berza u kurcu danima, sve ide dole kao po komandi.

[Venom]

Verovatno jer

 

Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008 (4)

 

Silicon Valley Bank became the biggest US lender to fail in more than a decade after a tumultuous week that saw an unsuccessful attempt to raise capital and a cash exodus from the tech startups that had fueled the lender’s rise.

 

Kako videh kažu da su imali ogroman priliv startup depozita koje nisu imali kuda da investiraju, pa su veliki deo investirali u desetogodišnje obveznice, koje su prsle kad je počelo podizanje kamata.

 

E sad ja sam glup za to i nije mi baš bilo jasno zašto bi to bio problem za banku, jer suštinski gubitak postoji samo ako prodaš investiciju pre vremena. Ali hvala Bogu da postoji Matt Levine i njegov newsletter:

 

And so if you were the Bank of Startups, just like if you were the Bank of Crypto, it turned out that you had made a huge concentrated bet on interest rates. Your customers were flush with cash, so they gave you all that cash, but they didn’t need loans so you invested all that cash in longer-dated fixed-income securities, which lost value when rates went up. But also, when rates went up, your customers all got smoked, because it turned out that they were creatures of low interest rates, and in a higher-interest-rate environment they didn’t have money anymore. So they withdrew their deposits, so you had to sell those securities at a loss to pay them back. Now you have lost money and look financially shaky, so customers get spooked and withdraw more money, so you sell more securities, so you book more losses, oops oops oops.

 

Znači s jedne strane startups imaju veliki priliv novca koji moraju negde da drže, ali banka ne može da zaradi na takvim klijentima jer oni zbog niskih kamata mogu da nađu investitore kad god hoće. Kad kamate odu gore, rizične investicije banke su u kurcu, ali u isto vreme klijenti povlače pare jer ni sami više ne mogu da nađu investitore tako lako. I onda banka prodaje sopstvene investicije iako su u debelom minusu.