BrExit?

[Dagmar]

Puno ce "tamburati" pre svega u UK narednih godina ako bude Brexit

 

Zašto tako misliš? UK je ionako u svojoj valuti, izvan Šengena, funkcioniše relativno izdvojeno sem što ima neke dilove sa EU oko pristupa tržištu ali moja procena je da im EU neće uskratiti ništa od toga ako izađu, ispotpisivaće nešto efektivno isto.

s druge strane, EU skepticizam širi se po jačim EU državama odavno, izlazak UK iz EU može da dovede do efekta da to više nije ekskluzivni klub, i "A šta mi čekamo" reakcije.

[MancMellow]

Vrlo je pitanje kako će izgledati dinamika EU ako bude BrExit.

 

To je "pitanje", 2-4 godine nestabilnosti u UK nije pitanje

[MancMellow]

Zašto tako misliš? UK je ionako u svojoj valuti, izvan Šengena, funkcioniše relativno izdvojeno sem što ima neke dilove sa EU oko pristupa tržištu ali moja procena je da im EU neće uskratiti ništa od toga ako izađu, ispotpisivaće nešto efektivno isto.

s druge strane, EU skepticizam širi se po jačim EU državama odavno, izlazak UK iz EU može da dovede do efekta da to više nije ekskluzivni klub, i "A šta mi čekamo" reakcije.

 

pogledaj malo koliko sve to traje u najboljem i najbrzem slucaju. Nista ispod 5 godina. 

[Dagmar]

pogledaj malo koliko sve to traje u najboljem i najbrzem slucaju. Nista ispod 5 godina. 

 

Traje koliko se dogovore da traje. Pobeda Leave na referendumu ne znači da je zemlja 25og aprila izvan EU. Njihovi mogu da paralelno spremaju izlazak i pregovaraju dilove, mogu recimo da u najboljem slučaju ostave da svi EU ekonomski dilovi važe dok se ne zamene novima.

[MancMellow]

Traje koliko se dogovore da traje. Pobeda Leave na referendumu ne znači da je zemlja 25og aprila izvan EU. Njihovi mogu da paralelno spremaju izlazak i pregovaraju dilove, mogu recimo da u najboljem slučaju ostave da svi EU ekonomski dilovi važe dok se ne zamene novima.

 

Nije, postoji procedura, najmanje 2 godine, plus da svi parlamenti drzava clanica ratifikuju. 

[Dagmar]

Nije, postoji procedura, najmanje 2 godine, plus da svi parlamenti drzava clanica ratifikuju. 

 

Pa ok, ali postoji li procedura da izlaskom iz EU automatski prestaju da važe svi ugovori? Šta je procedura za izlazak?

[MancMellow]

Pa ok, ali postoji li procedura da izlaskom iz EU automatski prestaju da važe svi ugovori? Šta je procedura za izlazak?

 

TEU article 50

 

Naravno da u teoriji vaze svi dotadasnji ugovori do vazenja sledeceg, ali firme, korporacije, kada prave ozbiljne projekcije ne prave ih na 2-3 godine. Status UK u odnosu na ostatak EU ce biti jedna velika nepoznanica, coupled sa neminovnom unutarpolitickom nestabilnoscu i neizvesnoscu buduceg statusa Skotske to je skoro pa perfecr storm (za britanske uslove, nemoj porediti sa ex-Yu primerima) Dovoljno da ekonomija padne 7-8% a to je solidna recesija. 

[Prospero]

šta se to desilo krajem maja pa remain drastično pada a exit raste?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/743403454803087361

 

Ovaj kaže da je ključ što je 27. maja zvanično počela izborna kampanja i što vlada od tada nema pristup svim resursima civil service-a, a što je valjda nivelisalo igru u odnosu na Brexit kampanju. Zvuči birokratizovano ali eto, valjda se to prevodi kao da ne mogu da pošalju jasnu poruku sa privilegovane pozicije.

 

by Tapatalk

[Prospero]

By Alexandre Sagakian

How the Jo Cox Murder Could Influence the Outcome of the EU Referendum

06.17.16 Data Intelligence

 

Over the past few weeks, ‘Brexit’ has gripped the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, with figures as divisive as Donald Trump and others all weighing in on what they think the country should do. And in the last few days, polls conducted in early June have indicated a late swing towards leaving, with all the momentum behind Boris Johnson and his Vote Leave campaign. Qriously has conducted its own independent poll from 13 to 17 of June to get the latest insights into voters’ intentions and also get a sense of how the recent tragic events could influence the outcome of the referendum.

 

We have run two polls:

• One from 13-16 June (before Jo Cox murder) on 1,992 UK adults
• One on 17 June (after Jo Cox murder) on 1,002 UK adults

Our poll shows Leave with a nearly insurmountable lead over Remain. Among likely voters, 52% back Leave, with only 37% backing Remain. In our first poll, 40% of likely voters planned to back Remain; but on Friday, this had dropped to 32%, with the Remain voters flocking to ‘Don’t know’. This means that previously-declared Remain voters are losing faith, with likely voters increasingly uncertain on Friday.

Among voters who say they are certain of their vote, and unlikely to change their mind, Leave leads by 60% to 40%.

Both Remain and Leave voters are pretty certain of their decision (81%). Only 3.5% could easily change their mind, although our earlier analysis indicates that Remain voters have deserted Remain in large numbers since earlier this week, flocking to ‘Don’t know’ instead – so perhaps those who still indicate Remain are more confident of their choice.

When we asked people to hypothetically bet 100 pounds on the outcome of the referendum, the result was a little closer, with 43% suggesting the country will vote Leave and 36% indicating the country will vote Remain.

Leaving the EU is associated with a decreased risk of terrorism – 30% of respondents feel leaving the EU will decrease terrorism risk, with only 14% indicating that leaving will result in an increased risk of terrorism.

Immigration, too, is a major concern for referendum voters. 60% of voters believe that leaving the EU will result in less immigration to Britain, with just 6% believing that leaving will result in more immigration. Immigration is clearly weighing on voters’ minds.

The tragic murder of pro-Remain MP Jo Cox is unlikely to significantly change that.

According to our first poll since her death on 16 June (10am – 2pm), 93% of UK adults had heard about the news. Leave voters seems to be slightly more aware of the news but that is marginal and unlikely to be statistically significant.

Most likely voters think this event will not change the current likelihood of a Leave or Remain vote. 25% think it might favor Remain or Leave but it’s split (50/50). Interestingly, pro-Remain voters think people will more likely vote Remain and pro-Leave voters think people will more likely vote Leave, suggesting respondents from both ends of the spectrum are viewing the event favorably for their side.

A huge majority of likely voters (88%) are unlikely to change their mind following Jo Cox’s murder. Less than 1% are actually considering changing their mind and 11% are waiting to know more about the motives of the murderer to reassess their decision.

Leave seems to be on-course for a dominant victory, and Jo Cox’s murder might have further weakened the Remain camp.

Overall, it seems clear that Jo Cox’s murder is unlikely to have a significant impact on individual voters.

However, if anything, Jo Cox’s death might weaken the support for Remain. Remain support dropped from 40% of likely voters (Mon-Thurs) to only 32% on Friday, with undecided likely voters increasing by the same amount. This indicates that previously-secure Remain voters (voters who indicated they were likely to vote and likely to back Remain) have wavered in their support. They state they are still likely to vote, but are no longer sure who to support. This represents a strong opportunity for the Leave campaign, and may be the final nail in the coffin for Remain.

However, referendums typically have a late swing to the status quo (Remain in this case), and this effect will likely also take place here. These results are just a snapshot of how people indicate they will vote at this point in time, and, of course, many events could take place over the next week which could change the outcome.

However, the momentum has never been higher for Vote Leave, and shows no signs of slowing.

 

Methodology

Qriously surveyed 2,994 adults (18+) over five days (June 13 – June 17). 1,002 interviews (33% of the data) were collected on Friday morning, following the death of Jo Cox.

All data is weighted on gender, age, region, previous voting behaviour (in the UK general election, 2015), and education level. Data is representative of UK adults 18+ in both the 13-16 June poll and the 17 June poll.

Photo credit: USA Today

This story appeared first in USA Today: http://usat.ly/23gyMo4

 

 

Ovo mi deluje malo previše na Brexit stranu.

[Anduril]

zato sto to niko nije postavio kao uslov ni za sta. politicki je nemoguce zamerati se apsolutno svakome u zemlji. to ne vazi samo za syrizu vec bilo koga bilo gde. i to odlicno znaju oni koji su im nametnuli ove uslove. priali smo o tome na 10 strana, dosli smo do zakljucka da je bolje da se kontrolise kako radi drzavna uprava nego da li je deficit/suficit bas tacno ovoliki ili onoliki i ti si rekao da suverena drzava na to ne bi pristala - ja: realno ne znamo, niko se time nije bavio. 

 

Ne znam Manc, ti kao da nisi pratio razvoj situacije i kao da ne znas nivo grckog nacionalizma i otpora ka direktnom mesanju u nacin kako funkcionise grcka drzava koju muze njihova elita.

 

Prvo si imao ovakve stvari praceno sa sve Merkel-Hitler poredjenjima i upornim odbijanjem bilo kakve pomoci osim para:

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/02/26/160-german-will-settle-in-greece-to-collect-taxes/

Zatim su se posle 4 godine krize ipak setili da bar nesto potpisu da bi se obrazovali:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8238fae8-c064-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz4BvhA6O2n

No, do sada i dalje nema ozbiljnijih pomaka jer ocigledno nedostaje politicka volja da se izgradi funkcionalna drzava.

 

A highly regarded offensive, their Greek colleagues should train to the German tax investigators, apparently on hold.

 

Years ago, Germany had the Greek Government offered assistance in tax collection. The Greek Minister however considered the offer appeared to function as interference in their sovereignty and went for years not on a – until January of this year

 

Just before Greece’s current Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos came to visit to Germany, confirmed the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of Finance: The Greek Government has now asked for a “Partnership for know-how exchange”. 50 Greek officers should be trained. Apparently the project, however, does not go ahead. To date, no Greek civil servants have started training, reports the newspaper “Bild". According to matching reports from the Greek Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, the Greek citizens of their government debt almost 90 billion euros in taxes, about half of the Greek economic output. If all outstanding taxes paid, the country could pay a quarter of its sovereign debt.

 

Prema tome, pritisci preko budzeta i preko nezadovoljstva stanovnistva koje rezultira iz toga su ocigledno jedini koji funkcionisu u toj mocvari koruptne politicke, biznis i medijske elite koja izbegava poreze i sistematski pljacka sopstvenu drzavu. Radije bi unistili drzavu nego da se odvoje od svojih privilegija/nacina zivota i to su vec pokazali nebrojeno puta.

[Prospero]

Evo nešto što će se svideti Tribunu:
 
 

 

Senior defence chief Lord Guthrie switches sides in Brexit battle from Remain to Leave over 'dangerous' European army plans

• Lord Guthrie ran the armed forces in the 1990s during the Balkan conflicts
• Signed Downing Street letter four months ago calling for Britain to Remain
• But he has changed his mind over 'dangerous' plans for a European army 

By Charlie Moore For Mailonline
Published: 09:35 GMT, 18 June 2016 | Updated: 10:57 GMT, 18 June 2016



Former defence chief Lord Guthrie has boosted the hopes of Brexit campaigners by dramatically switching sides from Remain to Leave over 'dangerous' European army plans.
Only four months ago he signed a Downing Street letter from military leaders arguing that Britain would be safer in the EU.
But the Field Marshall, who ran our armed forces in the 1990s, now says that was a 'mistake' and that being out of the EU is 'better for defence', fearing that a future European army would hinder Nato forces.




 
Former defence chief Lord Guthrie has boosted the hopes of Brexit campaigners by dramatically switching sides from Remain to Leave over 'dangerous' European army plans

In a interview with the Telegraph he said: 'I think a European army could damage Nato. It is expensive. It's unnecessary duplication to have it. It would appeal to some Euro vanity thing.'
'There's a feeling that those backing the European army are doing it for political reasons rather than military ones. They want to be able to boast, "Look! We've got a European army". That is dangerous,' he added.

Lord Guthrie presided over the British Army during the the Balkan conflicts and the rescue of Sierra Leone.
He served in Germany for 14 years and commanded the British Army of the Rhine from 1992-94. 
He was then involved in the Nato Partnership for Peace after the fall of the Berlin Wall and his allegiance to the alliance remains strong. 
Only four months ago Lord Guthrie (pictured in 2001) signed a Downing Street letter from military leaders arguing that Britain would be safer in the EU

He said that 'it would be a signal disaster to have a European army as rivals to Nato.' 
'I am concerned that the Army which I was in for 45 years could become very damaged and therefore less useful to our country.'
As CDS, he attended meetings in Brussels where he noticed a desire to bring Europe closer together regarding defence.
He said that the Germans and President Mitterrand of France were very keen on the idea of a European army and that now the European Parliament is also keen as is made clear by its use of phrases such as 'politico-military structures in Brussels.’

EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is among those to have said a European army is needed to stand up to Russia. But the idea could be blocked by Britain, as EU treaties make clear.
The government has previously said Britain will 'never be part of an EU army'. 
Lord Guthrie also said that he felt more European than American but that the Americans are more important.
'When things get really serious, we need the Americans. That's where the power is. If the Americans had been around at the time of the Ukraine events, I doubt whether Putin would have dared be so bold,' he said.
There are five days to go until the referendum on 23 June but campaigning has been suspended until Sunday, following the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox on Thursday.

 

[MancMellow]

A za te planove nije znao pre 4 mesea? 

 

 

Andurile, neću na ovom topiku ponovo o tome. To je velika tema, ima veze sa Brexitom, ali zagušiće topik. Mislim, nemam šta da dodam osim toga da je pritisak išao u pogrešnom pravcu koji je politički nesprovodiv i ekonomski "damaging".  

[barrcode]

Evo Tribunu jos jedan: France’s plan for a bloody Brexit

http://www.politico.eu/article/france-plan-for-a-bloody-brexit-eu-referendum-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/

[MancMellow]

 

A man has been charged with murder following the shooting of Labour MP Jo Cox. Thomas Mair, 52, of Birstall was also charged with grievous bodily harm, possession of a firearm with intent to commit an indictable offence and possession of an offensive weapon, West Yorkshire police said in a statement. Asked to give his name at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Saturday morning, he replied: "My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain". 

 

 

new statesman

[Kampokei]

Jos jedna telefonska anketa po kojoj vodi Remain. Bice Remain ipak.

 

http://goo.gl/arOzI9