Dobra plata, dobro mesto, jeftin real estate

[Indy]

Uuu... ne valja ova situacija.

 

[roksi]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Uuu... ne valja ova situacija.

 

 

bas lose... 

 

danas su presli hiljadu slucajeva. bilo je za ocekivati. 

 

 

[iDemo]

1 hour ago, roksi said:

danas su presli hiljadu slucajeva. bilo je za ocekivati. 

 

Nonetheless, Viktorija uvozi™ medical staff: 

Victoria will fly in 350 medical staff from overseas to ease the pressure on its weary health system, as doctors warn hospital staffing plans are urgently needed to prepare for the next phase of the pandemic.

 

Nonetheless/less: 

Doherty Institute director says reopening the country is safe once 70-80 per cent COVID vaccination rate achieved

Mene licno raduje kad  vidim da se neko odlicno razume u modeliranje, CI (confidence intervals) i ostalu galanteriju™ pa mu/joj dodje isto da li je 70% ili 80% - 'vazno da smo tu negde'...

[Gojko & Stojko]

16 hours ago, noskich said:

Znate kako, meni je uvek bitnije STA neko prica, a ne KO to prica.

Ako samo gledate KO sta prica sta to znaci? Pa znaci da ste zatvoren sistem koji ne prima bilo kakav feedback iz okruzenja, zacementirano. Priliv informacija iskljucivo u skladu sa svojim uverenjima i od strane istomisljenika. Uzivajte ziveti u svom mehuru.

Ja bas volim da saslusam razne strane i da cujem nove informacije kako ne bih bio dogmata, a u skladu sa tim mogu (ne moram) da revidiram neka svoja vidjenja. 

 

E sad to sto sam podelio ovaj izvor ne znaci apsolutno nista. Niti da ja njega podrzavam, niti da ga volim, cak ni da se sa njim slazem. Primetite da se ceo video sastoji iz priloga sa australijske televizije, vrlo malo ima komentara, tako da nema lazi nema prevare. 

 

Kada je rec o jugoistocnoj Aziji, pa tesko se mogu porediti zemlje sa toliko poroznim granicama sa Australijom koja ima pa gotovo stopostotnu kontrolu svojih granica. Tajland nikada ne moze potpuno obustaviti ilegalne prelaske ljudi iz Mjanmara, Kambodze, Laosa itd. I naravno najvaznija razlika sto ovde sistem moze da pumpa stotine milijardi dolara ni iz cega, a tamo ne moze. 

 

Poenta "nema razlike u odjevanju" je pogledajte kakvo je stanje u Australiji tokom pandemije sa niskim stepenom smrtnosti, pa zamislite sta bi tek bilo da je SSSR pobedio u hladnom ratu, upao u Australiju, pobio preko trecine stanovnistva, bacio vise bombi nego za vreme Drugog svetskog rata tako da cigla na cigli nije ostala, i onda nikada nije pristao da se potpise kraj rata iako je Australija uvek na tome insistirala. Pa nadalje SSSR izgradio baze oko Australije sa nukleranim bombama i svake godine najvecim vojnim vezbama na svetu. Pa uveo Australiji najstroze sankcije u istoriji covecanstva. Pa predsednik SSSR-a javno najavio vojne intervencije u zemljama A, B, C i Australiji, pa se te intervencije odigrale u A, B i C... I tako dalje...

E pa kada to sve lepo zamislite, onda zamenite Australiju u ovom hipotetickom primeru sa DPRK, pa onda mozda mozete da pocnete da poimate realnost u kojoj se DPRK nalazi od svog pocetka do danas. 

Naravno da je bitno šta neko priča, ti uglavnom pričaš besmislice. Ako neko sa strane neupućenom gledaocu hoće da odslika šta je većinsko ili pak prosečno ili pak tipično australijsko javno mnjenje i u tu svrhu upotrebi Alana Džonsa koji je ekstremna tačka na desnoj strani tog javnog mnjenja daleko čak i od ostalih ekstremno desnih tačaka, taj ili je lud ili podebelo pokvaren, a ti koji se takvim klipovima služiš se praviš lud, kao po običaju.

 

Hoćeš li da te oped podsećam tvojih napisa ovde od pre više od godinu dana gde si osim Tajlanda za poređenje sa Australiijom upotrebljavao Južnu Koreju (od koje si brzo odustao), Vijetnam i Kambodžu? Za poređenje ti je sad ostala samo Severna Koreja.

 

Od svega što si ovde ikad ispisao u svrhu protesta protiv "plutokratskih" vlasti, što saveznih što lokalnih (NSW), jedino što ima smisla je ukazivanje na niži socijalno ekonomski status zapadnih delova Sidneja koji utiče da se mere manje poštuju nego u bogatijim delovima grada. Pumpanje milijardi dolara za pomoć ljudima da ostanu kod kuće se radi upravo u tu svrhu, naravno da ima problema jer admisnitracija pomoći treba da se zasniva na prethodnom prometu i zaradi, a pošto ima dosta slučajeva plaćanja na ruke mimo knjiga (ti si odličan primer takve prakse sa svojim podzakupom), naravno da su u nepoštovanju mera i protestima protiv bilo čega najglasniji upravo takvi "snađoši".

 

SaE

[Indy]

1 hour ago, iDemo said:

Nonetheless/less: 

Doherty Institute director says reopening the country is safe once 70-80 per cent COVID vaccination rate achieved

Mene licno raduje kad  vidim da se neko odlicno razume u modeliranje, CI (confidence intervals) i ostalu galanteriju™ pa mu/joj dodje isto da li je 70% ili 80% - 'vazno da smo tu negde'...

Vec je bilo (juce) u vestima tj. bio je Norman Swan sa tvrdnjom da je Doherty izvestaj pogresno shvacen... A i profesor se slaze:

 

[Gojko & Stojko]

15 minutes ago, Indy said:

Vec je bilo (juce) u vestima tj. bio je Norman Swan sa tvrdnjom da je Doherty izvestaj pogresno shvacen... A i profesor se slaze:

Evo ga link i isečak iz tog Svonovog transkripta od juče, Svon savršen kao i obično. Da podsetim o čemu se radi kod TTIQ, u NSW je i dalje udeo pozitivnih testova ispod 1%, što u UK nije bio slučaj (ne znam koliko se sad obavi sekvenciranja, duže vreme je u tome Australija bila šampion sa oko 50% a NZ blizak drugi, pri čemu se sve ostale zemlje bile na ispod 20%, UK je od velikih zemalja jedina bila blizu te cifre):

What are the assumptions in the Doherty Model?

...

Norman Swan: Yes. So let's look at some of the assumptions here. So in terms of the virus they talk about something called the transmission potential, and that's kind of like the effective reproduction number. It's not the untrammelled spread of, say, the Delta variant which is somewhere between six and eight people from one person, it's when you have put all the stuff in place, including vaccination, what's the transmission potential of the virus, and how do you get it down to one or below. And the variables that count here are obviously the infectiousness of the virus but they have assumed the Delta. It's the efficiency of what's called now the TTIQ, so that's your test, trace, isolate and quarantine. So a lot of it depends on the contact tracing system, how many people are coming forward for testing. And also the bundles of public health measures that you put together to control an outbreak.
The other thing that they talk about is the vaccine effectiveness and the vaccine rollout and in what age groups, according to the transmission potential and the potential for ill-health. So there's a lot of variables in there that could affect the outcome.
So what you've heard over the last few days is a discussion about case numbers, and it's true that if you look at the graphs in the Doherty model, at least in 10 August version of it, then you see that a lot of the assumptions are based on quite small case numbers, like 30 on a national basis, really quite small case numbers. And the assumption is though that our contact tracing system will be quite good up to quite high numbers and still hold the fort.
And we had Allan Saul on the Health Report a couple of nights ago from the Burnet Institute who is a modeller himself and a vaccinologist, and the point that he was making was that if you look at the Doherty model, even at 80% coverage, you've still got potentially 30% of your time spent in quite severe lockdowns because as case numbers rise, the efficiency of your contact tracing goes down. Vaccination counts. The control of the pandemic via vaccination counts and makes a big difference, and makes a bigger difference the more vaccinated you are. But it's a combination of the measures.
And you've heard people talking about this, that we are not necessarily ever going to get to herd immunity with Delta, there's still some measures you've got to have in place. And if you look at the model, if contact tracing effectiveness goes down, then you've got a problem with control even at 80%. And in the Doherty model, even at 80%, you could actually go into severe lockdowns for a significant percentage of the time.
To give you an example of how contact tracing is affected if you get up to quite large numbers, you can get quite a significant reduction in effective contact tracing at, say, 100 cases a day. In the UK at thousands of cases a day, they only contacted two-thirds of people, and they only quarantined one in five people effectively. Then if you add to that the fact that asymptomatic infection occurs, and with Delta it may occur more often because you are producing such a high viral load, so you don't know that you are spreading the virus and you're not getting tested until you are symptomatic, and that's more likely to spread before you are symptomatic in the Delta is the theory, then you create an additional problem for contact tracers.
And of course in Victoria over the last few days they've had a problem with people turning up late for testing. So even though they are symptomatic, they are still turning up late and you've got a problem with compliance as well.
So all those things work together, and even in the Doherty model you do not move beyond significant lockdowns from time to time, even at 80%. So this is a complicated story which has been misunderstood, so then it does boil down to what you are prepared to tolerate in terms of numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and people who are seriously ill and end up in hospital and end up dying. And of course the Doherty model does predict that.
But remember, the Doherty model does not have a Freedom Day, it doesn't have a day where suddenly sunlight dawns on Australia and we were all back to living normally, there are restrictions in place and it's a very slow process, it's not a fast process.

 

Tegan Taylor: So what does that mean then for Australia, especially with New South Wales dealing with its high case numbers. That's the context a lot of people have been talking about the Doherty modelling in reference to. Does it give us any clear idea?

 

Norman Swan: So you've heard the debate about case numbers over the last couple of days. Professor Sharon Lewin who directs the Doherty Institute has been talking about how when you look at the case numbers, if they get beyond 30 and they get to large numbers, it pushes the date out in terms of you achieve control a bit later. But Allan Saul would argue that in fact it's more serious than that because some of the fundamental assumptions in the Doherty model start to fall apart at large case numbers and it's particularly…well, it's this TTIQ, it's this contact tracing system which really is holding the fort. It's holding the fort in New South Wales, it's holding numbers at 700 or 800 at the moment, and they would be in their thousands by now if you didn't have a contact tracing system.
Let me just talk now about the real world, and the real world is that in Israel with 80% immunisation, they've got a real surge on with Delta, and hospitalisations are tracking the surge. So the hospitalisations are going up. That graph is quite tight. So hospitalisations are going up, and yes, they are not seeing the rate of deaths that they were seeing in the rate of ICU admissions that they were seeing before, that has gone down, but essentially the two graphs are going up, hospitalisations and infections are going up at the same rate, and that's because they say they are seeing waning vaccine immunity. And the Doherty model assumes probably longer immunity to the vaccines than may actually happen.
Whereas in Britain you've got decoupling. And what I mean by decoupling is you've got a surge, maybe 30,000 cases a day of the Delta virus, but the graph of hospitalisations is much lower, it's not tracking according to the surge, and that's probably a combination of the fact that they've had Astra where the immunity probably lasts a bit longer, and they have come to the party later than Israel in terms of immunisation and you've got a more immune elderly population. So, a lot of variables, and that's the real world. And what we achieve in our real world is still to be seen.

...

 

SaE

[magi]

Ja ne znam što Gladys toliko potencira otvaranje na 70-80% kad joj taj manevar kupuje samo 2-3 meseca na političkoj sceni.

Andrews je u tom smislu mnogo umereniji jer kao što vidimo iz Swannovih izjava neće da Bosne opušteno ni posle 80%.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[iDemo]

Trik pitanje je - ko ce se za 20-30 dana secati tih 70-80%? Ja cenim da nece niko (bitan) jer ce u to vreme biti vecih problema... Ono - treci-cetvrti pik drugog/treceg/petog/sedmog talasa i alfa/beta/delta/omega varijetet... 

[Indy]

 

U medjuvremenu, top #1 vest u drzavi NSW je... u vezi nekakvih grafita ekoloskih aktivista Nisu primetili da se nesto drugo (malo znacajnije), ovaj, dogadja?!

 

Nista zato, skoro celu naslovnicu (osim njihove najvece muke - sto ekoloski aktivisti nisu poslati u gulag na 10 godina, valjda) - platio je Gerry Harvey, kolovodja noskichu omiljene plutokratije... Hebote, 'vake novine nismo imali ni u S(F)RJ u vreme Slobe... Tamo su samo lagali i izmisljali sta se (ne) dogadja, ovde se prostituisu na sred srede.

 

PS. Onaj drugar sto ce da mi napise "to je tabloid", molim te nemoj...  ako boba znas.

[Gojko & Stojko]

 

Turbo iz gornjeg levog ugla je ragbista Morskih Orlova sa Menlija Tom Trbojević. Srbin opet pobediJo, razlaz

 

SaE

[magi]

 
U medjuvremenu, top #1 vest u drzavi NSW je... u vezi nekakvih grafita ekoloskih aktivista:unsure: Nisu primetili da se nesto drugo (malo znacajnije), ovaj, dogadja?!
 
Nista zato, skoro celu naslovnicu (osim njihove najvece muke - sto ekoloski aktivisti nisu poslati u gulag na 10 godina, valjda) - platio je Gerry Harvey, kolovodja noskichu omiljene plutokratije... Hebote, 'vake novine nismo imali ni u S(F)RJ u vreme Slobe... Tamo su samo lagali i izmisljali sta se (ne) dogadja, ovde se prostituisu na sred srede.
 
PS. Onaj drugar sto ce da mi napise "to je tabloid", molim te nemoj...  ako boba znas.

Haha neću sad kad sam preduhitren a i ne znam ove novine. Mada ono "parliament pests" bode oči [emoji846]

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[noskich]

10 hours ago, Gojko & Stojko said:

a pošto ima dosta slučajeva plaćanja na ruke mimo knjiga (ti si odličan primer takve prakse sa svojim podzakupom), naravno da su u nepoštovanju mera i protestima protiv bilo čega najglasniji upravo takvi "snađoši".

 

SaE

 

Nista kod mene nema na ruke, sve online. Nema lazi, nema prevare.

 

Nego ajmo dalje: 11 hiljada dolara ili 6 meseci zatvora ko predje ulicu, biraj.

Sirotinja ce u zatvor naravno.

 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/perverse-11k-fine-for-crossing-eastern-sydney-road-slammed-by-residents/news-story/49ae02513c2bba5e2550d9620674fe56

 

That means simply by crossing Bunnerong Road, you are actually in breach of a public health order.

According to the NSW government, under the Public Health Act 2010, on-the-spot fines can be doled out starting at $1000 and climbing as high as $11,000 for individuals, and/or you could be receive up to six months in jail.

[iDemo]

 

 

australian-public-fed-nonsense by Matt Barrie.

[iDemo]

Isto sto i gore al' s komentarima... 

 

 

 

 

[iDemo]