Energy shortages in Europe could hit by next month, warns Shell CEO

HOUSTON, March 24 (Reuters) - Energy shortages could hit Europe by next month, Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab CEO Wael Sawan said on Tuesday, adding that securing adequate ‌energy supply was critical to national security.

Countries cannot have national security without energy security, Sawan said, adding that Shell was trying to work with governments to help them address the energy crisis, including with storage and purchasing. The Middle East conflict, now in its fourth week, has already affected supplies of jet fuel, with diesel set to be next, followed by gasoline as summer driving season gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, Sawan said.

The war has damaged major energy facilities and nearly halted shipping through ⁠the Strait of Hormuz - which handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

"South Asia was first to get that brunt. That's moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April," he said while speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Texas.

Germany's Economy Minister Katherina Reiche also warned that energy supply scarcity could occur in late April or May if the conflict continues.

Iran Gas Flow to Turkey Said to Stop After South Pars Strike

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/iranian-gas-flow-to-turkey-said-to-stop-after-south-pars-strike

47 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Iran Gas Flow to Turkey Said to Stop After South Pars Strike

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/iranian-gas-flow-to-turkey-said-to-stop-after-south-pars-strike

Zato ko mahniti kupuju naftu od Rusa po premium cenama, $5-15 skuplje od Brenta. Vec su zakupili 2mbd za April. Prave seme za buducnost ako SAD ponovo pocnu da zatezu, prave sisteme placena koje izbewavaju $ i banke koje nemaj poslovanje van Indije.

Ali da imas samo nedelju dana zaliha, wtf?!

21 minutes ago, Shan Jan said:

Ali da imas samo nedelju dana zaliha, wtf?!

Indija ima strateske rezeeve u visini potrosnje od 75 do 90 dana.

Prvo, oni trose dnevno oko 5.5M barela i proizvode oko 1M. Drugo, glavne rezerve su kod rafinerija, a samo manji deo je u skladistim drzave. Trece, usled pretnji sankcijama za kupovinu ruske nafte poceli su sa "remontom" dela rafinerija.

Nestasice goriva su najvise urokovane ekstra potraznjom (ljudi ali i firme prave zalihe) i problemima u logistici, da isporuce gorivo do pumpi. Nazalost, nece biti bolje zato sto ce biti sve vec (panicna) potraznja.

Dnevni list Danas

Rojters: Južna Koreja razmatra uvoz ruske nafte prvi put...

Vlada Južne Koreje razgovara sa kompanijama o mogućnosti uvoza ruske sirove nafte i nafte za petrohemijsku preradu (nafte), saopštilo je Ministarstvo industrije u Seulu, dok vlasti nastoje da obezbede

Japan isto razmislja u tom pravcu ali ne vidim da Rusija moze da isporuci Kini, Indiji, J. Koreji i Japanu u isto vreme. Iako im svakako odgovara takmicenje za njihove sirovine jer tako dobijaju vece cene. Mislim da Kina i Indija sada uzimaju oko 4.5-5 mbd ruske sirove nafte, mislim da je to neki maksimum sto se tice Rusa trenutno. Mozda bi mogli da vremenom povecaju za jos nekih 1-2mbd ali za to treba vremena, Oni dosta preradjuju i onda salju skuplje proizvode. Imaju velike rafinerijske kapacitete, koji su na krajnjem zapadu i jugozapadu bili napadnuti i izbaceni odredjeno vreme iz rada, ali to je nekih 10-15% njihovih kapaciteta. Uostalom, kao sto se moze videti, Rusija se potpuno okrenula ekonomski Aziji. Cak je Ukrajin, koliko juce napala termnial za tecni prirodni gas(LNG) na Baltiku, sto je, mislim, danas veci problem za Evropu nego li Rusiju zbog nedostatka katarskog LNG.

Edited March 26Mar 26 by Emerald

Zaboravio sam reci da ima jos zemalja u Aziji, pre svih Vijetnam, koji "jure" rusku naftu i gas. Mislim da ce Vijetnam dobiti pre ruske sirovine od J. Koreje i Japana, kao tradcionalni ruski saveznik, istorijski, ne samo protiv Zapada vec i Kine. A Vijentam nije mala zemlja demografski, ima veliki privredni razvoj, sada su vec blizu 1mbd potrosnje. Samo cu reci da Madjarska, Slovacka, Austrija, Ceska i Srbija su na pola te brojke.

Vietnam, Russia set to sign energy deals during PM's Moscow visit

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-russia-set-sign-energy-deals-during-pms-moscow-visit-2026-03-23/

• The two sides are expected to sign "important agreements", focusing on energy, trade and investment, ⁠Vietnam's government said in a statement late on Sunday.

• Chinh is scheduled to meet counterpart Mikhail Mishustin and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Chinh's visit comes as Vietnam has faced surging fuel prices since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, with gasoline prices up ‌50% ⁠and diesel prices rising 70%.

• Communist-run Vietnam maintains close ties with Russia, its longtime top supplier of military equipment, while Russian oil ⁠and gas companies operate offshore of Vietnam.

• The two countries have been in talks for a ⁠Russian company to build Vietnam's first nuclear power plant, and officials said ⁠they are likely to officially sign a nuclear power agreement during Chinh's trip.

Saudijska Arabija krenula da prebacuje na Crveno more naftu ali to je razlog zasto ih Iran drzi u "sahu". Jer to moze dok se Huti ne aktiviraju.

Problem sa isporukama nafte ima 2 dela.

Prvi, naftovod je neuporedivo efikasniji od tankera. Druzba ima kapacitet od oko 1.2M barela dnevno. To je ekvivalent 2 do 3 standardna tankera. Ali tankeru treba vreme da ode i da se vrati. Ako plovilu trebaju 2 nedelje od terminala u CMoru do Indije, onda je potrebno reda velicine 60 to 100 tankera da obave mesecni transport nafte koji je ekvivalentan Druzbi.

Slicna prica je za naftovod prema Kini koji ima kapacitet veci od 1.6M barela. A najveci ruski terminal na istoku Kozmino je projektovan za 600k barela.

Drugo, Ukrajina je ostetila dosta terminala (CMore) koji su imali neki svoj (ograniceni) kapacitet.

The Moscow Times

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Halt at Least 40% of Russia’s Oil...

Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, disrupting shipments from major Baltic and Black Sea ports, Reuters reported Wednesday.

Edited March 26Mar 26 by x500

https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2036828687249662093

total gas storage is down to ~28%, the lowest for this time of year since 2022.

Meanwhile, European benchmark gas futures have surged +55% since the start of the Iran War, with the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting global LNG supply flows.

Europe now faces a brutal summer of competing with Asian buyers for fewer available cargoes, at significantly higher prices, just to refill storage before next winter.

Is Europe capable of avoiding another energy crisis?

https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2036810839177535774

Edited March 26Mar 26 by vememah

Transport cevima je jeftiniji ali ne putuje transport tako dugo. To samo tako izgleda kada se gleda jedan brod ka odredjenm odredistu. Ali kada se uspostavi snadbevanje sa puno brodova to nije tako.

Sto se tice ruskih kapaciteta na Tihom okeanu, oni jesu ograniceni sa ESPO na nesto preko 1.6mbd, ali ima Sahalin, imaju oko 2mbd trenutno za izvoz na Tihom okeanu. Mozda mogu nesto sa zeleznicom, mada ima vise teminala koji mogu isporucivati naftu ka Aziji, neki od njih, kao sto sam napisao, su na Sahalinu. Zato se sada koriste terminali na Baltiku, koji su sa vremena na vreme, napadnuti(licno mislim ne samo od Ukrajine).

Sada Britanci prete da ce presetati ruske tankere koji plove ka Indij,i videcemo kako ce se to zavrsiti. Ocekujem da upadnu na neki tanker, ali ne sustinski prekinuti snadbevanje, nesto slicno kao sada. Mada su to opasne operacije.

Edited March 26Mar 26 by Emerald

Zavisi

Od Novorosijska do Mumbaja je oko 5000 milja, to je 15 dana plovidbe brzinom od 14 cvorova. I sve to bez cekanja za prolaz kroz Bosfor, Suec i na prolaz kod Jemena.

Sto se tice zeleznice, to je oko 50t po vagonu. Kompozicija od 30 cisterni je 1500t (ekvivalent od 10k barela). Jedan tanker (400k barela) je 40 kompozicija kao sto je jedna kompozicija od 50 do 70 kamiona.

Sve ima svoje