Budućnost elektroenergetskog sistema

[Peter Fan]

S obzirom na izvor, treba uzeti sa dozom skepse, a mrzi me da sad kopam po finacijskim izvjestajima i fact-chekujem. No, vjerujem da je mogcue i vjerovatno je tacno:

 

Hawaiian Electric Knew of Wildfire Threat, but Waited Years to Act

Four years ago, the utility said it needed to do more to prevent its power lines from emitting sparks. It made little progress, focusing on a shift to clean energy.

 

During the 2019 wildfire season, one of the worst Maui had ever seen, Hawaiian Electric concluded that it needed to do far more to prevent its power lines from emitting sparks.

The utility examined California’s plans to reduce fires ignited by power lines, started flying drones over its territory and vowed to take steps to protect its equipment and its customers from the threat of fire. 

Nearly four years later, the company has completed little such work. Between 2019 and 2022, it invested less than $245,000 on wildfire-specific projects on the island, regulatory filings show. It didn’t seek state approval to raise rates to pay for broad wildfire-safety improvements until 2022, and has yet to receive it.

Now, the company is facing scrutiny, litigation and a financial crisis over indications that its power lines might have played a role in igniting the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. The blaze has caused at least 110 deaths, destroyed the historic town of Lahaina and resulted in an estimated billions of dollars in damage. 

The fire’s cause hasn’t been determined, but mounting evidence suggests the utility’s equipment was involved. One video taken by a resident shows a downed power line igniting dry grass along a road near Lahaina. A firm that monitors grid sensors reported dozens of electrical disruptions in the hours before the fire began, including one that coincided in time with video footage of a flash of light from power lines. 

...

The growing risk of wildfire on Maui had been known for years. The number of acres burned on the island soared to 39,000 in 2019, from 150 in 1999, according to data compiled by the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, a nonprofit that works with government agencies and the public. 

Several reports released by the group and others in recent years have said the danger is increasing, in part, because of invasive plants that have overtaken former sugar and pineapple plantations. Roughly one-quarter of state land in Hawaii is now covered by invasive grasses and shrubs, according to a study by the University of Hawaii and think tank East-West Center. 

 

In 2018, winds from Hurricane Lane passing to the south helped fuel fires that burned more than 2,000 acres on Maui. The next year was far worse, with the most acres blackened in decades, data from the wildfire management group show.

That July, a 9,000-acre blaze blew out of control in Central Maui, burning 25 acres a minute, according to the Maui News. The blaze prompted hundreds of evacuations and came within 150 feet of Hawaiian Electric’s power plant on Maui, according to the paper. The plant accounts for as much as 80% of the island’s power supplies.

....

In filings over the next two years with the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission, which is tasked with approving utility projects and spending, the company made only passing ito enter Lahaina on Wednesday for the first time since wildfires devastated the historic town last week. 

 

Renewables push

Former regulators and energy company officials said the utility was focused at that time on procuring renewable energy. Hawaii has been on a push to convert to renewables since 2008, when a run-up in oil prices sent electrical rates at Hawaiian Electric—which relied on petroleum imports for 80% of its energy supply—through the roof. In 2015, lawmakers passed legislation mandating that the state derive 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2045, the first such requirement in the U.S. 

The company dove into reaching the goals, stating in 2017 that it would reach the benchmark five years ahead of schedule. 

 

In 2019, under pressure to replace the output of two conventional power plants set to retire, the company sought to contract for 900 megawatts of renewable energy, the most it had pursued at any one time.

“You have to look at the scope and scale of the transformation within [Hawaiian Electric] that was occurring throughout the system,” said Mina Morita, who chaired the state utilities commission from 2011 to 2015. “While there was concern for wildfire risk, politically the focus was on electricity generation.” 

The drive to reach the renewable goals also preoccupied private energy companies working with Hawaiian Electric and state energy officials, said Doug McLeod, a consultant who served for several years as the Maui county energy commissioner. 

“Looking back with hindsight, the business opportunities were on the generation side, and the utility was going out for bid with all these big renewable-energy projects,” he said. “But in retrospect, it seems clear, we weren’t as focused on these fire risks as we should have been.”

...

A 2020 management audit of the company found that its enterprise risk analysis was largely focused on financial risk, with limited consideration of operational and business risk. And the division within the company that oversaw power line operations had significant management problems, the audit found.

Henry Curtis, who leads an environmental and community group that regularly weighs in on utility projects, said Hawaiian Electric officials told him privately that they didn’t believe Hawaii was prone to the type of devastating wildfires roaring through California. The utility officials thought the state’s parched grasslands were less of an urgent threat than California’s vast and dry timberlands, he said. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/wildfire-risk-maui-hawaiian-electric-7beed21e?mod=series_hawaiiwildfires

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[borris_]

"Vjetrenjace se brzo instaliraju à nuklearke sporo"

 

 

[borris_]

Reaktoru Tricastin-u je produzen zivotni vijek na 50 godina. Ostali reaktori slijede.

 

https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/nucleaire-top-depart-pour-la-prolongation-des-reacteurs-francais-au-dela-des-40-ans-1971133

 

Ali 35 godina to je oko 50...

Edited August 21, 2023 by borris_

[Venom]

Toliko je brzo da će Poljska 2040. biti na nivou Nemačke 2023. Možda da izmisliš vremeplov pa gradiš 1977, why not, zagriženi ideolozi mogu sve. Pritom ti je grafik u apsolutnim vrednostima - nuklearna energija pokriva 30% sve struje u Švedskoj, a vetar i sunce prošle godine 60% u Danskoj. Osim toga ekspanzija obnovljivih izvora počinje 2000. a nuklearne energije 1950, daj da pomerimo grafik na tu godinu.

 

Francuska je i pre 10 godina zaključila da nema para i vremena da napravi nove nuklearke, pa su produžili postojeće. Rezultat toga je minus od 20 milijardi prošle godine, ili jedno četvoročlano domaćinstvo u Francuskoj će da pokrije taj minus kroz poreze koliko moje četvoročlano domaćinstvo potroši najskuplje evropske struje za dve godine. 

[borris_]

Prvi semestar ove godine EDF +5m€. Njemacka ce pokriti taj minus od prosle godine jer polako od izvodjaca energije postaju uvozac.

 

Znaci fr pocinje da produzuje svoje nuklearke poslije detaljnog remonta (USA su ih produzili do 60 godina bez takvog remonta). Pisao sam o tom remontu. Trenutna dostupnost Nu je na nivou decembra prosle godine. Poslije crnih godina kada su zeleni pokusali da uniste nu sektor u fr (uz pomoc glupih socijalista koji su pro nuke ali koji vise vole vlast), taj sektor se polako ali sigurno vraca na stare staze. Broj inzenjera je sve veci i ulaganja su u usponu. Cilj je sada jasan. 

I dalje ima zatucanih ali i kod njih noje to bas toliko kompaktno (vecina njihovih glasaca, LFI + zeleni su pro nuke).

Sto se tice remonta i popravki, to ide mnogo brze nego sto se ocekivalo (lesson learned).

 

- - -

 

Kad se hoce, kada je tu politicka volja, kada je cilj jasan moze se sve

 

 

[Venom]

Politička volja u Francuskoj postoji od početka 2000. ali nema rezultata u praksi. Svi novi reaktori i u Francuskoj i van nje se mogu opisati kao nacionalna blamaža, pogotovo onaj u Finskoj koju su sami platili. To je valjda onaj Uber model poslovanja - pravimo gubitak na svakoj elektrani, ali nadoknadićemo to količinom.

 

Jeste, Nemačka će uvesti struje za 20 milijardi profita iz Francuske pošto su isključili tri nuklearne elektrane. Smešno i tužno. "Nemačka" ne uvozi struju, postoji na stotine dobavljača i oni uvoze struju, trenutno najviše iz Danske, jer je jeftinija nego da se pale termoelektrane. I tu isto nema ništa novo, tako je već godinama. Izuzetak je bila prošla godina kad su upaljene mnoge termoelektrane da bi se izvezla struja u Francusku i sprečio kolaps tamo. 

 

Svetla budućnost nuklearki u svetu bez vode: Francuska opet ugasila reaktor, kao i prošle godine, jer ne mogu da ga ohlade. Možda će naći političku volju da snize temperaturu.

[borris_]

 

 

 

 

[Venom]

Višak vetra iz Danske je mnogo jeftiniji od nemačkog uglja. Sasvim sigurno i francuska subvencionisana struja iz nuklearki, neće Nemci plaćati odlaganje otpada i konačno zatvaranje nuklearki kad jednom više ne bude moguće produženje.

 

Tako da je od zatvaranja poslednjih nuklearki cena u Nemačkoj pala ispod 30c po kWh. Npr.

 

 

 

[Venom]

6 minutes ago, borris_ said:

 

 

 

Pa to je upravo razlog. Gde god rade nuklearke moraju da rade 100% vremena jer inače nemaju računicu. Nemačka je osim ove 3 ove godine ugasila nekoliko puta više od 2011 do danas, pa je svejedno ukupno ostala izvoznik zbog ekspanzije obnovljivih izvora. Kako to da nije došlo do "sloma" još 2011? Nebuloze.

 

Nemačka ima oko 90GW termoelektrana koje većinski ne rade trenutno jer je jeftinije uvesti. 

[Shan Jan]

Izvinjavam se sto upadam u vasu bracnu raspravu ali jel neko od vas ispratio ovo sranje u koje je potonula Juznoafricka Republika?

 

 

 

Bukvalno od pada aparthejda je bilo problema sa strujom u JARu ali vremenom je postajalo sve gore i gore dok sad nisu dosli dotle da rudnici od kojih zivi drzava ne mogu da rade. Neki tvrde da idu to point of no return, kao krecu konacno ulaganja u elektrane al dal ce uspeti da ih naprave na vreme (ako ih uopste naprave) pre nego sve ode u q slasni... 

 

Moja Bocvana ni kriva ni duzna pati, nekad su uvozili svu struju iz JARa, vremenom su to smanjivali ali ni oni nisu uspeli da se spreme za ovoliku eskalaciju (gde je JAR potpuno prestao da izvozi struju) tako da sada i Bocvana ima blackouts, mada nije tako strasno kao u JAR.

[Peter Fan]

New York is reeling from its hot battery summer | Canary Media

 

New York state is grappling with how to adjust its ambitious buildout of clean energy storage after fires broke out at three separate battery projects between late May and late July.

The immediate damage was quite limited, beyond the battery containers themselves. No injuries were reported from any of the fires, according to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), which plays a leading role in the state’s grid storage efforts. Nor is the agency aware of any resulting toxic emissions.

But the string of fires has put Governor Kathy Hochul in a tight spot: She is pushing to increase the state’s battery storage capacity from about 300 megawatts today to 6,000 megawatts in 2030, to complement an expansive buildout of renewable generation. Batteries play a valuable role in balancing the ups and downs of solar and wind production, but they can’t deliver clean power on demand if they’re catching fire.

[brusli]

Zar nije Wat jedinica za snagu a ne za kapacitet (energiju) ?

Trebalo bi da se izrazava u Wh.

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by brusli

[borris_]

[Venom]

Jeste da su ga zidali 20 godina, ali makar je radio dva meseca pre nego što je trokirao: Olkiluoto 2 reaktor van pogona, nepoznato kad će opet proraditi. Što se poklopilo s redovnim godišnjim održavanjem drugog reaktora, tako da Finci poslednjih dana imaju najskuplju struju u Evropi. Jedino što ih teši je što im je Francuska platila taj reaktor.

 

Francuska pak gasi reaktor, jer ne mogu da ga ohlade zbog visokih temperatura.

 

Pouzdana energija.

 

 

[borris_]

Nema sunca nema vjetra ali ima uglja i plina