BrExit?

[Roger Sanchez]

Squeaky bum days

 

Carmakers call for transitional EU deal

 

Rolls-Royce boss warns against a 'hard Brexit'

[Roger Sanchez]

[barrcode]

 

DEUTSCHE BANK PREPARING FOR HARD BREXIT, CRYAN TELLS EMPLOYEES

[Roger Sanchez]

 

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Feted by some British newspapers as proof of a Brexit vote windfall, Britain's recent export recovery ranks as the worst among Europe's major economies, according to one closely-watched measure.
Surveys of manufacturers across Europe published by data firm IHS Markit on Monday underlined Britain's challenge as it tries to become an export-led dynamo outside the European Union.
The export orders gauge of the UK Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index slid to a five-month low in June.(Graphic: UK ranked bottom for export performance - PMIs click tmsnrt.rs/2t8l6lu)
While still indicating growth in exports, it left Britain as the weakest performer in terms of foreign orders, barring Greece, among big western European economies for a fourth month running.
That's a poor return for the pound's 12 percent fall against a range of currencies since the Brexit vote a year ago.
It also casts doubt over the belief among some Bank of England officials that strong exports will help make up for a slowdown in consumer spending, suggesting the British economy could cope with a first interest rate hike in a decade.

Čekam Budju sad...

Edited July 21, 2017 by Roger Sanchez

[MancMellow]

 

:D

[Budja]

 

 

Čekam Budju sad...

 

Evo odmah, iz istog clanka.

 

 

Some indicators have suggested exporters are doing well.

The Confederation of British Industry's gauge of manufacturing exports, which is based on a different methodology to the PMIs, hit a 22-year high in June.

But the official data is more muted: goods trade export volumes rose at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the three months to April, the best showing since January 2016 but still below rates seen through most of 2015.

 

Pri tome, voleo bih da znam nesto vise o PMI i kako interpretirati razliku od 6 procentualnih poena izmedju Nemacke (big surprise!) i Britanije.

[vememah]

Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. The data for the index are collected through a survey of 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on seven different fields, namely, production level, new orders from customers, speed of supplier deliveries, inventories, order backlogs and employment level. Respondents can report either better, same or worse conditions than previous months.

...

PMI data are presented in the form of a diffusion index, which is calculated as follows:^[1]

PMI = (P₁ * 1) + (P₂ * 0.5) + (P₃ * 0)

where:

• P₁ = Percentage number of answers that reported an improvement.
• P₂ = Percentage number of answers that reported no change.
• P₃ = Percentage number of answers that reported a deterioration.

Thus, if 100% of the panel reported an improvement, the index would be 100.0. If 100% reported a deterioration, the index would be zero. If 100% of the panel saw no change, the index would be 50.0 (P₂ * 0.5).

Therefore, an index reading of 50.0 means that the variable is unchanged, a number over 50.0 indicates an improvement, while anything below 50.0 suggests a decline. An index of 50.0 would arise if either all respondents reported no change or the number of respondents reporting an improvement was matched by the number of respondents reporting a deterioration. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the change over the month, e.g. a reading of 55.0 points to a more frequently reported increase in a variable than a reading of 52.5.^[1] The degree of confidence experienced by respondents reporting an improvement and the degree of concern experienced by respondents reporting a deterioration are not factored into the index.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers%27_Index

 

U prevodu, u Britaniji su daleko izjednačenije pozitivne i negativne situacije u privatnim firmama (pod pretpostavkom da niko ne stagnira, odnos je 52,6-47,4) nego u Nemačkoj (58,5-41,5).

Edited July 21, 2017 by vememah

[Budja]

U prevodu, u Britaniji su daleko izjednačenije pozitivne i negativne situacije u privatnim firmama (pod pretpostavkom da niko ne stagnira, odnos je 52,6-47,4) nego u Nemačkoj (58,5-41,5).

 

Hvala.

S obzirom da je u pitanju anketa 400 ljudi, trebalo bi tu, kao i u svakoj anketi, dati mogucu gresku.

 

Takodje, jedan moguci problem je sto se anketira samo smer trenda (bolje, isto, gore) bez ulaska u kvantitet - ako par firmi ima vece narudzbe za 50% a sve ostale manje narudzbe za 1%, PMI ce pokazati izrazito negativan trend.

 

 

CBI to ovako radi

 

 

23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%)

 

Pretpostavljam da to "normal" daje neku fleksibilnost. Ono, +/-5% je "normal".

 

Takodje, CBI daje time-trend, dok PMI daje cross-section poredjenje.

Edited July 22, 2017 by Budja

[Roger Sanchez]

Europska unija na sve moguće načine pokušava uništiti Britaniju.

[Dagmar]

Čula da se dosta Brita, visokoobrazovanih već uveliko bavi emigracijom ka EU.

u pm.

[jms_uk]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html

 

As a British EU negotiator, I can tell you that Brexit is going to be far worse than anyone could have guessed

 

The Government keeps saying it ‘didn’t realise’ the problems, but they had the experts at Whitehall – they just refused to listen to them. Now we’re facing a breakdown in airline safety, medicine, animal welfare, security, international aid and so much more

[BraveMargot]

Čula da se dosta Brita, visokoobrazovanih već uveliko bavi emigracijom ka EU.

u pm.

 

ne bih rekla. na onim univerzitetima u kojima znam ljude vecinom se u bezaniju spremaju isfrustrirani EUovci koji ne mogu da podnesu sto ce morati da vade boravisne dozvole.  s obzirom na to da ih je vecina ovde zato sto u svojoj zemlji nikad ne bi mogli da dobiju tako dobar posao, to mi deluje kao "seci usi krpi dupe" manevar.

 

mozda je drugacije medju mladim svetom koji je tek zavrsio faks. ipak smo mi zabokrecina.

[hazard]

  s obzirom na to da ih je vecina ovde zato sto u svojoj zemlji nikad ne bi mogli da dobiju tako dobar posao, to mi deluje kao "seci usi krpi dupe" manevar.

 

Ali oni ne moraju da se vracaju u svoje zemlje...nek Ceh ne moze dobiti jednako dobar posao u Ceskoj, ali mozda moze u Nemackoj, Svedskoj...takodje, mozda su mnogi od njih mogli da dobiju takav posao u Kanadi/SAD/Australiji ali su izabrali UK bas zbog manjka drkanja za vizama i boravisnim i radnim dozvolama...ako to svejedno moraju da rade u UK, mozda sada preferiraju neku od tih drugih destinacija. Druga stvar je neizvesnost. Ako  odes sada za Kanadu recimo, znas tacno u kom statusu ces biti, i sta i koliko ce ti trebati da se iz tog statusa prebacis u drzavljanina i koje su ti sanse otprilike...jer je taj sistem vec uhodan i definisan. UK nije nista jos odredilo za EU drzavljane, ne zna se uopste kakav ce biti tretman, a ostalo je manje od 2 godine da se to definise. Kapiram da postoje ljudi koji zele da se obezbede pre nego sto im neko u aprilu 2019. kaze da ukoliko ostanu bez posla, imaju 30 dana da se pokupe i odu.

[BraveMargot]

Ali oni ne moraju da se vracaju u svoje zemlje...nek Ceh ne moze dobiti jednako dobar posao u Ceskoj, ali mozda moze u Nemackoj, Svedskoj...takodje, mozda su mnogi od njih mogli da dobiju takav posao u Kanadi/SAD/Australiji ali su izabrali UK bas zbog manjka drkanja za vizama i boravisnim i radnim dozvolama...ako to svejedno moraju da rade u UK, mozda sada preferiraju neku od tih drugih destinacija. Druga stvar je neizvesnost. Ako  odes sada za Kanadu recimo, znas tacno u kom statusu ces biti, i sta i koliko ce ti trebati da se iz tog statusa prebacis u drzavljanina i koje su ti sanse otprilike...jer je taj sistem vec uhodan i definisan. UK nije nista jos odredilo za EU drzavljane, ne zna se uopste kakav ce biti tretman, a ostalo je manje od 2 godine da se to definise. Kapiram da postoje ljudi koji zele da se obezbede pre nego sto im neko u aprilu 2019. kaze da ukoliko ostanu bez posla, imaju 30 dana da se pokupe i odu.

 

ne mislim na cehe ili slovake, njih i nema u nekim vecim brojevima medju akademskim osobljem sa stalnim ugovorima. mislim pretezno na nemce, holandjane i francuze ciji univerzitetski sistem je takav da jako mali broj ljudi moze da ima stalan polozaj i kojih ima kao zutih mrava.

 

sistem za EU drzavljanje ne moze da bude gori nego sto je trenutno za ne-EU drzavljane a verovatno ce biti bolji. vidim vec da su im objavili neke informacije o registracijama gde je sve to mnogo blaze, pa cak i mnogo jeftinije.

[Dagmar]

ne bih rekla. na onim univerzitetima u kojima znam ljude vecinom se u bezaniju spremaju isfrustrirani EUovci koji ne mogu da podnesu sto ce morati da vade boravisne dozvole.  s obzirom na to da ih je vecina ovde zato sto u svojoj zemlji nikad ne bi mogli da dobiju tako dobar posao, to mi deluje kao "seci usi krpi dupe" manevar.

 

mozda je drugacije medju mladim svetom koji je tek zavrsio faks. ipak smo mi zabokrecina.

 

Izvor je neki omladinac sa Oxforda, al ne znam detalje. Samo da se gledaju kontinentalne zemlje.