Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[Friend]

Konacno da je neko prekinuo niz

[apostata]

Italian exit polls show Renzi losing constitutional reform referendum: Reports

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/04/italian-exit-polls-show-prime-minister-matteo-renzi-losing-constitutional-reform-referendum-reuters.html

[porucnik vasic]

Sta mu dodju austrijski bjelasi?

+1

[MancMellow]

Renci podneo ostavku™

[porucnik vasic]

Renci podneo ostavku™

Па то је то...

[Budja]

Here we go again.

 

 

Greece must reform or leave eurozone, says German minister

Wolfgang Schäuble rules out debt relief for Greece before meeting of eurozone’s finance ministers

[Budja]

Putinara zajebao i Italijane. Master of the universe.

 

 

On his blog, Grillo called the referendum results a victory for democracy. “The propaganda of the regime and all of its lies are the first losers of this referendum,” he said. It was a pointed remark following several reports, including in La Stampa, Buzzfeed and the New York Times, that alleged the Five Star Movement was behind an intense disinformation campaign and that officials in the Renzi government had raised concerns about possible Russian influence in Italian politics.

[hazard]

https://www.ft.com/content/b9e527b4-b26c-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1

 

Nesto sto ima smisla ili wishful thinking, ja nemam dovoljno znanja da procenim...mozda ce forumski ekonomisti/knjigovodje imati bolju ideju o cemu se radi.

 

 

Who’s afraid of Italy? Premium

The country is on firmer ground than you think

Martin Sandbu's Free Lunch

 

Italy’s constitutional referendum, in just nine days, is joining Brexit and Donald Trump at the crowded forefront of elite concern in Europe. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has framed the poll as a vote on his personal standing, and if Italians reject the proposals (as polls now suggest they will), many fear a political crisis leading to a caretaker government or a new election — with the populist Five Star Movement waiting in the wings.

 

Some take their worries much further. They expect the political instability of a No vote to worsen the problems of Italy’s undercapitalised banks, which may in turn threaten market confidence in the public finances and in extremis reignite the sovereign debt crisis. My colleague Wolfgang Münchau even fears “a sequence of events that would raise questions of Italy’s participation in the eurozone”.

 

There is no doubt that Italy has economic problems. Its productivity performance has been awful, as Münchau points out, though this has been true since the early 1990s not since the start of the euro. As I have written before, the neglect of education and skills, inefficient regulation and tax rules, and cronyism in the banking sector’s credit allocation all deserve more blame than the single currency.

 

Aside from the chronic challenges, the acute problems have worsened recently. The banking system is creaking under one of Europe’s largest bad loan burdens, made worse by the long stagnation. Some smaller banks have failed spectacularly (read Rachel Sanderson’s dramatic tale of banking in the Veneto) and have brought huge losses to retail investors who trusted the system.

 

On top of this, there are renewed worries about capital flight. Since the start of 2015, Italy has gone deeper into the red in Target2, the single currency’s settlement system for transfers between banks in different eurozone countries. That means depositors are taking money out of Italian banks, sending them to banks elsewhere — often Germany, which has seen a corresponding increase in its Target2 credit.

 

This has been linked to the European Central Bank’s purchase of government bonds, including those of Rome. Eric Dor shows that, contrary to hopes that this was mainly foreign investors repatriating their cash after selling their Italian bond holdings, the Target2 movements reflect the actions of Italian investors.

 

So it is superficially tempting to think that Italy is on a cliff-edge and needs only a nudge — such as a referendum No vote — to fall into a full-fledged financial crisis.

 

But that would be wrong. Partly because the political instability is not a foregone conclusion, partly because Target2 imbalances are not the bogeyman they are made out to be and partly because Italy faces much more benign conditions today than at the height of the euro crisis.

 

On the first point, as former Italian prime minister Mario Monti points out in an article for the FT, Renzi neither needs to resign if he loses the referendum, nor should he. Monti seems right: Renzi was wrong to personalise this referendum, and if he loses he should simply accept the political weakening this involves, but not make things worse by leaving office.

 

On the second point, Target2 is often misunderstood. Its main function is to facilitate movements of bank deposits without causing a balance of payments problem. A Target2 liability is something that arises automatically when a deposit is moved from an Italian bank to one in another eurozone country, allowing the Italian national banking system to keep its balance sheet unchanged rather than shed assets to fund the deposit outflow. It is like a gold-backed banking system with an infinite gold supply.

 

The proof that this is stabilising rather than destabilising is that even as Target2 outflows have taken place, deposits in Italian banks have continued to grow. So have loans to households (though not to businesses). Far from a harbinger of doom, Target2 has allowed the Italian banking system to continue to function.

 

Finally, Italy is not living beyond its means. The current account has been positive for the past four years — it hit almost 3 per cent of economic output in the second quarter. There is no reliance on fickle foreign capital to sustain domestic demand here — it is rather depressed Italian demand that funds consumption elsewhere.

 

Even so, the economy started growing again at about the same time as the rise in the dreaded Target2 deficit. And while public debt is high, Italy has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of lower interest rates, with the government’s annual interest costs set to fall by more than 2 percentage points of GDP between 2015 and 2017 on one estimate (though since Trump’s election, rates have moved in the other direction).

 

No doubt Italy faces daunting challenges. Of course the economy needs stronger growth and the rot in parts of the banking system needs to be fixed through a proper restructuring of banks. A carve-out of healthy banks from the wreckage of failed ones, a writedown of unpayable liabilities in what is left and government indemnification of any innocent retail investors (a system of which Italy has already introduced but needs to improve) are together far preferable to returning to the old sin of bailing out banks whose political connections are better than their financial performance. Italy’s banking ailments are one roadblock on the path to stronger growth — but they are not the trigger of an imminent collapse of either Italy or the euro.

[eumeswil]

Varufakis: Mere štednje u EU propale

 

 

Bivši grčki ministar finansija Janis Varufakis kaže da nema sumnje da su mjere štednje u Evropi propale, i da one “nikada nijesu, niti će funkcionisati”, prenosi Tanjug.

“Moja je procjena da eurozoni treba nova arhitektura i infrastruktura. Najveća prepreka tome je njemački ministar finansija. Biće nemoguće išta promijeniti sa današnjom arhitekturom”, kazao je Varufakis koji gostuje u Zagrebu.

“ Imali smo globalizaciju bez globalne vlade. Globalizacija je zapravo pravo novca da se slobodno kreće i da velike korporacije prodaju drugim zemljama bez restrikcija i da se šire na druge ekonomije. Ne postoji globalno upravljanje. Hrvatima i Grcima koji žive u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu danas govore da tamo nijesu dobrodošli. Meksikanci proizvode robe i dobra za SAD, ali nijesu tamo dobrodošli”, rekao je Varufakis.

Govoreći o “pomjeranjima” u Evropi, Varufakis je rekao da sve promjene koje se događaju u Njemačkoj idu nagore.

“Angela Merkel je jedina političarka još na nogama koja je na strani civilizacije, iako se po mnogome ne slažem s njom, posebno ne u ekonomskoj politici. Propustila je priliku za ujedinjenje Europe i biće joj teško”, rekao je Varufakis, koji konstatuje da je “socijaldemokratija davno prodala svoju dušu kada se udružila s bankarima”.

“Počeli su misliti da više nema potrebe da rade kao sudije između države i biznisa. Socijaldemokratija je umrla i zadnjih nekoliko godina gledamo njenu rapidnu smrt. Vrlo sam tužan zbog Sirize. Imali smo priliku, učinili smo nešto nevjerojatno, suprotstavili se establišmentu programom koji je bio primjeren. Samo je trebalo da budemo ujedinjeni i da kažemo ne idiotizmu. Nažalost nismo bili ujedinjeni, jednostavno smo pali”, rekao je Varufakis.

[MancMellow]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/switzerland-u-turn-quotas-on-eu-workers-immigration

 

[hazard]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/switzerland-u-turn-quotas-on-eu-workers-immigration

 

 

Neinformativan članak, ne znam šta je tu zapravo novo (za većinu kategorija radnih dozvola si prvo moraju da dokažeš kantonalnoj, pa onda federalnoj vlasti da ne možeš da nađeš nekoga ko već ima radnu dozvolu da radi taj posao - možda će samo pooštriti te uslove), takođe, Švajcarska ima nešto poput "free movement-a" sa "starom" EU (članice od pre 2004.), "nove" članice imaju restrikcije, i Švajcarska ima pravo da uvodi kvote na imigrante iz tih zemalja.

 

Inače, po mom slučajnom uzorku ljudi na aerodromu svaki drugi vikend dok sam živeo tamo, rekao bih da u Švici ima jaaako puno Engleza, koji su tamo na osnovu dila koji Švajcarska ima sa EU, može lako da se desi da posle Brexita Švajcarci njih prebace u status ,,treće zemlje" i jednostavno ukinu vize tim ljudima po isteku, kako bi udovoljili anti-imigrantski orijentisanim glasačima

[MancMellow]

razlika je sto su morali da ukinu kvote. 

 

https://www.afp.com/en/news/827/swiss-parliament-finally-agrees-eu-migrant-curbs-plan

[hazard]

Pa cini mi se da te kvote (na one EU gradjane koji mogu da slobodno da ulaze Svajcarsku) nikada nisu ni postojale, samo su hteli da ih uvedu na osnovu tog referenduma, pa odustali pod pritiskom Brisela. Bar je to ono sto pise u tekstu. Ali da, to je onda 1/1 paralela sa brexitom, svakako

Edited December 17, 2016 by hazard

[MancMellow]

Meni iz vesti izgleda da su prava proširena na sve tj da je uravo proširenje tih prava na hrvatske državljane bio uslov za učešće u zajedničkim EU naučnim i drugi projektima. Možda nisam čitao pažljivo, ali tako mi izgleda.

[Dagmar]

Meni iz vesti izgleda da su prava proširena na sve tj da je uravo proširenje tih prava na hrvatske državljane bio uslov za učešće u zajedničkim EU naučnim i drugi projektima. Možda nisam čitao pažljivo, ali tako mi izgleda.

 

Oni su pre jedno 3-4 god bili ukinuli prednost EU državljana maltene skroz?

Tako mi barem pričali neki drugari odatle, da im se neki EU poznanici šokiravali kad su odjednom krenuli da ih odbijaju za radne dozvole.