China

[Budja]

Malo ste preostri prema coveku. Stil mu je detinjast i komican i ne vidim zasto covek svojim predvidjanjima daje takve odredjene rokove kada se bavi procesima koji ne mogu uvek biti adekvatno kvantifikovani. Medjutim ono u cemu je u pravu su same postavke. Neki daleko ozbiljniji ekonomisti vec duze vreme govore i fenomenu kine i tome kuda ovakav ekonomski koncept vodi. Tu bih izdvojio Krugmana koji je pre nepunih mesec dana u NYT objavio tekst na temu kineskog sunovrata.Za one koje mrzi da citaju ukratko o cemu se radi. Naime sada cak i zvanicni podaci pocinju da ukazuju na probleme. Vecina proizvoda koje kina proizvodi se prodaje u ostatku sveta dok sama Kina ima relativno nisku potrosnju. Takodje nivo investicija u Kini je jako visok i ukazuje na disbalans izmedju te potrosnje i ulsaganja. Onda se postavlja pitanje da li nam se priblizava novi bubble i to onda kada nam najmanje treba.Ja bih dodao jos dve stvari. Cheng je u pravu, Kina je zaista profitirala od WTO i izgradila svoj uspeh na potrosnji ostatka sveta, ali danas kada je kriza oslabila kupovnu moc tog ostatka sveta postavlja se pitanje koliko je kineski model odrziv. Uz sve to Kina ima politicki problem sistema u kome se rast postavlja kao imperativ tako da nijedan lokalni partijski vodja nece da dozvoli da on bude taj prvi kod koga je posle vise decenija doslo do pada. Zato se zidaju gradovi u kojima nema ko da zivi, aerodromi sa kojih avioni ne polecu itd.U perspektivi Kina moze biti veliki problem i posmatrati to kao sansu za propast "komunizma" je detinjasto.

Bubble mozda postoji, ali postoji i mogucnost da se produzi bas zato sto postoji ventil da se novom kreditnom ekspanzijom prema stanovnistvu, i to onom ruralnom, podigne potrosnja.Taj ventil nakon finansijske krize nije postojao u US gde su domacinstva vec debelo bila u dugu, pa postoji taj opsti delevariging.Cudi me da Krugman, kao ideolog fiskalne ekspanzije to ne vidi.

[Yoyogi]

Bubble mozda postoji, ali postoji i mogucnost da se produzi bas zato sto postoji ventil da se novom kreditnom ekspanzijom prema stanovnistvu, i to onom ruralnom, podigne potrosnja.Taj ventil nakon finansijske krize nije postojao u US gde su domacinstva vec debelo bila u dugu, pa postoji taj opsti delevariging.Cudi me da Krugman, kao ideolog fiskalne ekspanzije to ne vidi.

Nista tu nema cudno. To ruralno stanovnistvo nema cime da se zaduzi (nema para ni za ucesce kamoli da vrati). Njihovi clanovi porodica rade po Shangaju, Shenzhenu, Guangzhou, gde vec, da salju pare nazad, mozda 100EUR mesecno, ako i to. Nema tu rezerve. Mozda imaju mobilni telefon ali to je ovo:Nema tu ono sto je bilo po Americi, daj kredit svakome.Pa je bila navala astronauta, to je bilo prvo zanimanje na drop-down listi kada se to polje popunjava za kredit i to su kao najlakse birali oni koji nikakav posao nemaju, da dobiju sta hoce a nikada nece moci da otplate.

[bigvlada]

a da pogledas statistike o novozaposlenima? 1.6 miliona u 2011. 940.000 u 2010. samo u proizvodnji, najveci rast radnih mesta od 1997. godine. to su ti hard facts.

Znam da je ovo od pre mesec dana ali poslednja stvar kojoj treba verovati su američke statistike o broju novozaposlenih kao i njihova metodologija merenja stope nezaposlenosti. Svaka od tih brojki se kasnije revidira i to znatno. Evo, sledećeg petka treba da izađu cifre za NonFarm Employment Change i nezaposlenost koja je sada zvanično 8,3%. To će imati uticaja na valute tog dana i akcije možda još par dana i kasnije će se zaboraviti i revidirati.

[Roger Sanchez]

Tri loša...

The US, Japan and the European Union have filed a case against China at the World Trade Organization, challenging its restrictions on rare earth exports. Beijing has set quotas for exports of rare earths, which are critical to the manufacture of high-tech products. It is the first WTO case to be filed jointly by the US, EU and Japan.

[Indy]

Ne znam da li je do vas stiglo, ali upravo odgledah jednu od epizoda Triumph and Turmoil. Vrlo zanimljivo...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtD8jYp6zhg

[banecare1]

Ne znam da li je do vas stiglo, ali upravo odgledah jednu od epizoda Triumph and Turmoil. Vrlo zanimljivo...

tange na kopakabani su za ne propustiti lepo je narator objasnio da se vlast u kini pre svega brine o tome kako da im narod ne dodje glave, a tek onda razmislja o spoljnoj politici i desavanjima van kine. kina u bukvalnom prevodu znaci centralno carstvo, nije to nako. to mnogi ne kontaju. rusi npr udavise o invaziji sibira sto nema veze sa zivotom.meni je tema kineske ekonomske ekspanzije po africi i juznoj americi interesantna posto znam dosta kineza koji su radili tamo, u kontaktu sam sa predstavnicima kineskih firmi po agrentini i brazilu, bio sam u njihvim kancelarijama i video sve to uzivo. jedan od povratnika iz afrike od juna radi kod mene u pekingu. nece jos dugo na zalost, ali to nije za ovu temu.kinezi su strateski napravili strava potez sa ulaganjima u te regione, hohstaplere sa zapada su prakticno izbacili iz afrike. ne znam samo kako nije sramota economist npr da brani interese africkih naroda od gnusnih kapitalista sa istoka.

[MancMellow]

hmmm...http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/05/zambian-miners-kill-chinese-supervisor

[Shan Jan]

Sta si sa ovim hteo da kazes?

[bigvlada]

China Aug official factory PMI falls to 49.2BEIJING | Sat Sep 1, 2012 6:51am IST(Reuters) - China's official factory purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/china-economy-pmi-idINDEE88000S20120901AUD i NZD sprovode tandem base jumping, CAD se priprema na isto.

[bigvlada]

Special Report - China's answer to subprime bets: the "Golden Elephant"(Reuters) - The Chinese investment vehicle known as "Golden Elephant No. 38" promises buyers a 7.2 percent return per year. That's more than double the rate offered on savings accounts nationally.http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/us-china-banks-idUSBRE87501T20120806

[banecare1]

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/China-Japan-Dispute-Over-Islands-Clouds-340-3872557.phphttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19620114http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/17/japanese-firms-close-offices-chinakineski glavni search http://www.baidu.com/danas zatvoreni svi 7/11 u nasem kraju u pekingu, predpostavljam da je tako po celoj kinine znam zasto to rade kinezi. mislim da ce napraviti mnogo vecu stetu sebi nego japancima. ovo je meni mnogo gore od tibeta, ljudskih prava, dece po fabrikama i ostalih standardnih zamerki prema kini

[bigvlada]

Japan brandname firms shut China plants after protest violenceBy Kazunori Takada and Chris BuckleySHANGHAI/BEIJING | Mon Sep 17, 2012 12:47pm EDT(Reuters) - Some major Japanese brandname firms announced factory shutdowns in China on Monday and urged expatriates to stay indoors ahead of what could be more angry protests over a territorial dispute between Asia's two biggest economies.China's worst outbreak of anti-Japan sentiment in decades led to weekend demonstrations and violent attacks on well-known Japanese businesses such as car makers Toyota and Honda, forcing frightened Japanese into hiding and prompting Chinese state media to warn that trade relations could now be in jeopardy.Another outbreak of anti-Japan sentiment is expected across China on Tuesday, the anniversary of Japan's 1931 occupation of parts of mainland China."I'm not going out today and I've asked my Chinese boyfriend to be with me all day tomorrow," said Sayo Morimoto, a 29-year-old Japanese graduate student at a university in Shenzhen.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said the government would protect Japanese firms and citizens and called for protesters to obey the law."The gravely destructive consequences of Japan's illegal purchase of the Diaoyu Islands are steadily emerging, and the responsibility for this should be born by Japan," he told a daily news briefing. The islands, called the Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China.China and Japan, which generated two-way trade of $345 billion last year, are arguing over the uninhabited islets in the East China Sea, a long-standing dispute that erupted last week when the Japanese government decided to buy some of them from a private Japanese owner.In response, China sent six surveillance ships to the area, which contains potentially large gas reserves. On Monday, a flotilla of around 1,000 Chinese fishing boats was sailing for the islands.The weekend protests mainly targeted Japanese diplomatic missions but also shops, restaurants and car dealerships in at least five cities. Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co said arsonists had badly damaged their stores in the eastern port city of Qingdao at the weekend.Toyota said its factories and offices were operating as normal on Monday and that it had not ordered its Japanese employees home.Honda said it would suspend production in China starting on Tuesday for two days. Fast Retailing Co, Asia's largest apparel retailer, said it had closed some of its Uniqlo outlets in China and may close yet more.Japan's top general retailer, Seven & I Holdings, said it would close 13 Ito Yokado supermarkets and 198 "7-11" convenience stores in China on Tuesday, while Sony Corp is discouraging non-essential travel to China.Mazda Motor Corp will halt production at its Nanjing factory, which it jointly operates with Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd and Ford Motor Co, for four days. Nissan Motor Co suspended China production for two days, starting Monday, sources said."I want to leave," said a Nissan executive, who declined to be named, in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. "Protests near my home were horrifying over the weekend."Electronics group Panasonic said one of its plants had been sabotaged by Chinese workers and would remain closed through Tuesday.Canon Inc will stop production at three of its four Chinese factories on Tuesday, Japanese media reports said, while All Nippon Airways Co reported a rise in cancellations on Japan-bound flights from China.The dispute also hit the shares of Hong Kong-listed Japanese retailers on Monday, with department store operator Aeon Stores (Hong Kong) Co Ltd falling to a seven-month low."All Japan-related shares are under selling pressure," said Andrew To, a research director from Emperor Capital.Japan warned its citizens about large-scale protests in China on Tuesday. Many Japanese schools across China, including in Beijing and Shanghai, have cancelled classes this week.U.S. SAYS NOT TAKING SIDESJapanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who met visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Monday, urged Beijing to ensure Japan's people and property were protected.Panetta said the United States would stand by its security treaty obligations to Japan but not take sides in the row, and urged calm and restraint on both sides.The overseas edition of the People's Daily, the main newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, warned that Beijing could resort to economic retaliation if the dispute festers."How could it be that Japan wants another lost decade, and could even be prepared to go back by two decades?" asked a front-page editorial. China "has always been extremely cautious about playing the economic card", it said."But in struggles concerning territorial sovereignty, if Japan continues its provocations, then China will take up the battle."China is Japan's biggest trade partner and Japan is China's third largest. Any harm to business and investment ties would be bad for both economies at a time when China faces a slowdown.Qingdao police said they had arrested a number of people suspected of "disrupting social order" during the protests, apparently referring to the attacks on Japanese-operated factories and shops there.In Shanghai, home to China's biggest Japanese expatriate population of 56,000, one expat said his family as well as other Japanese customers had been chased out of a Japanese restaurant on Sunday by protesters near the Japanese consulate.Guangzhou police said on their official microblog that they had detained 11 people for smashing up a Japanese-brand car, shop windows and billboards on Sunday.(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard, Norihiko Shirouzu, Sui-Lee Wee in BEIJING, and Yoko Kubota, Antoni Slodkowski and Linda Sieg in TOKYO; Editing by Nick Macfie)http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/us-china-japan-idUSBRE88F00H20120917Elem, pričica ide ovako: U južnom kineskom moru postoji grupa nenaseljenih ostrva (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands) za koja su Kinezi znali od ranije i smatrali ih delom svoje teritorije. 1895,godine u ratu sa Japanom Kina gubi ta ostrva što je potvrđeno mirovnim ugovorom koji ni jedna strana ne spori. Jedan biznismen je izgradio postrojenja za preradu ribe na ostrvima ali taj posao propada 1940. godine. Ostrva ostaju u posedu Japana do 1945 i kapitulacije. Tim aktom je predviđeno da "Japan ima pravo na Hokaido, Honšu, Kjušju, Šikoku i ona manja ostrva koja mi odredimo " SAD je ostrvima upravljala do 1971 kada ih vraćaju pod upravu Japana. Familija onog što je pravio biznis je prodala par ostrva drugoj familiji a frka je nastala kada je država otkupila par ostrva (ne znam od koje familije). Štos je što su izgleda 1968 u podmorju našli prirodni gas. Po meni, Kina nema osnove da se buni, sami su se odrekli ostrva posle rata 1895 a SAD su vraćanjem ostrva Japanu potvrdila suverenitet Japana nad njima.

[eoten]

...Štos je što su izgleda 1968 u podmorju našli prirodni gas. Po meni, Kina nema osnove da se buni, sami su se odrekli ostrva posle rata 1895 a SAD su vraćanjem ostrva Japanu potvrdila suverenitet Japana nad njima.

dobar povod da supersila u nastajanju pokaže mišiće stečene intenzivnim bildovanjem zadnjih godina.

[Krampa]

Ne znam da li je do vas stiglo, ali upravo odgledah jednu od epizoda Triumph and Turmoil. Vrlo zanimljivo...

odlican mu je zakljucak u sljedecoj epizodi. gori su sa kolonijam od nas i pocinje radjanje nacional socijalizma u kini tj. kina ide stopama njemacke...

[bigvlada]

Ovo je fascinantno, zašto naše ministarstvo prosvete ne pokušava da oformi nešto slično?http://en.cnki.com.cn/Engleski deo je tu čisto da se kaže da ga imaju, kineski je mnogo veći. http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=sr&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnki.com.cn%2FOvakav sistem usisavanja (ovo nije prikupljanje, uzima se sve što se objavi) informacija i njihovo klasifikovanje je nešto što bi svakako trebalo iskopirati ovde.