Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[braca]

Ako ste mislili da je gotovo : 

 

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News Alert: WHO reports largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases 

Tedros Adhanom-Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, on Wednesday said that more cases had been reported to the agency in the last 24 hours than any time since the novel coronavirus outbreak began. 

“We still have a long way to go in this pandemic,” he said at a briefing in Geneva. “In the last 24 hours, there have been 106,000 cases reported to WHO – the most in a single day since the outbreak began. Almost two-thirds of these cases were reported in just four countries.”

Those four countries, WHO infectious disease epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove confirmed to CNN in an email, are: the United States, Russia, Brazil and India.

 

[vememah]

Preneo sam noćas pa obrisao pošto je de facto u pitanju fejk njuz: od tih 106.000 po njima je SAD imao preko 45.000 slučajeva za jedan dan. Zapravo je došlo do pomeranja prijema izveštaja iz SAD pa su sabrali dva dana u jednom, a onda neki susedni dan (prethodni ili sledeći) imali 0 ili nešto vrlo sitno iz SAD.

 

 

Quote

A record 106,000 new COVID-19 infections were reported across the world on Tuesday, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has announced, with two-thirds of new cases observed in just four countries.

"In the last 24 hours, there have been 106,000 cases reported to WHO – the most in a single day since the outbreak began," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday during a press conference.

 

"Almost two-third of these cases were reported in just four countries," he added.

Data released by the WHO show the four countries to be the US, Russia, Brazil and the UK.

 

They reported a combined 65,106 new infections on May 19 with Washington recording 45,251 new cases while Moscow, Brazilia and London reported 9,263, 7,938 and 2,711 new cases respectively.

 https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/20/record-106-000-new-covid-19-cases-reported-in-a-day-who



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Edit: evo i ovo je jasan indikator, za jedan dan im se broj novoobolelih u svetu prepolovio:

 

Izveštaj od 20.5:
57.804 novih

Izveštaj od 19.5:
112.637 novih

Izveštaj od 18.5:
93.324 novih

Izveštaj od 17.5:
100.012 novih

Izveštaj od 16.5:
86.827 novih

Izveštaj od 15.5:
90.269 novih

Izveštaj od 14.5:
77.965

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

Edited May 21, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

Realno je 19.5. trebalo da bude oko 90 hiljada, a 20.5. oko 80 hiljada.

 

Ali naravno da je daleko od gotovog, u SAD je za zadnja dva dana umrlo 3000, a u Brazilu 2000 ljudi.

Edited May 21, 2020 by vememah

[omiljeni]

nije to fake news nego dolazi do problema sa poređenjem podataka zato što svako pravi dnevni presek u različito vreme.

ali suština je da brojevi i dalje rastu

 

[vememah]

U Holandiji izgleda došlo do zaražavanja čoveka koronavirusom od nerca gajenog na farmi.

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Based on new research results from the ongoing research on Covid-19 contagion on mink farms, it is plausible that a contagion from mink to humans has occurred. The research also shows that minks can have Covid-19 without showing symptoms of disease. Based on these latest insights, Minister Schouten of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and Minister De Jonge of Public Health, Welfare and Sport are taking a number of measures.

 

Minister Schouten: 'These new research results have a major impact on the owners, families and employees of mink farms as well as on local communities. I am therefore in close contact with all these parties involved'.

The virus that causes COVID-19 mutates relatively quickly. These changes in the genetic code can be followed. By comparing the genetic codes of the virus of different animals and humans a pedigree can be made and a picture can be obtained of how humans and animals have been infected in time and place. This type of research has also been done on infected minks and humans. One of the employees showed that the virus has similarities with the virus found on minks on the same farm. Based on the mutual comparison and the place of the virus in the pedigree, the conclusion from this investigation is that it is plausible that one employee of an infected mink farm was infected by minks.

In order to clarify this, the researchers are currently further mapping the 'genetic pedigree' of infected people in the vicinity of the infected mink farm in question in order to obtain as complete a picture as possible.

RIVM has indicated that the risk of people being exposed to the virus outside the stable is still negligible. The RIVM previously carried out this risk assessment on the basis of the fact that the research showed that all air and dust samples outside the stable did not contain any virus during repeated measurements.

 

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2020/05/19/nieuwe-onderzoeksresultaten-covid-19-bij-nertsenbedrijven (translation by Deepl)

Edited May 21, 2020 by vememah

[Have_Fun]

U Poljskoj juce 470, danas 405.. ne opada broj novih slucajeva nikako.. mere popustile.. restorani i kafici rade

Sinoc mi je pozlilo pa sam morao da potrazim pomoc.. 4 klinike sam obisao, ni jedna ne prima pacijente osim ako nije kovid.
Drugarica (posto jos uvek ne govorim jezik dobro) zvala okolo po gradu klinike, da proba da nadje nekog doktora da me pogleda, ma nikako..
Ili se ne javljaju ili odbiju.

Samo ako je virus u pitanju primaju... tako da sam jutros otisao kod privatnog jbg.

Samo sam pomislio, jbt, da je stvarno neko bio u opasnosti uvece, kome da se obrati za pomoc kad nigde nista ne primaju :S
Bas sam ostao zbunjen

Kao da ne postoji nikakav drugi zdravstveni problem ili bolest, osim kovida.

I onda mi je naravno proslo kroz glavu pitanje.. koliko li je ljudi stradalo od necega jer su svi fokusirani na korona virus, pa zbog toga nisu stigli da prime pomoc koja bi ih mozda spasila

[omiljeni]

Juce 107.000
Najvise do sad od pocetka pandemije
Azija i Latinska Amerika imaju najveci rast

[vememah]

Poređenje kontinenata po broju zvanično registrovanih slučajeva i broju zvanično registrovanih umrlih na milion stanovnika od početka pandemije (u spoilerima grafikoni za zadnjih mesec dana kako bi se jasnije videli trenutni trendovi):

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-million-people?tab=chart&yScale=log&country=Africa+Asia+Europe+North America+Oceania+South America+OWID_WRL

 

Kretanje u poslednjih mesec dana:

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-million-people?tab=chart&yScale=log&time=2020-04-21..&country=Africa+Asia+Europe+North America+Oceania+South America+OWID_WRL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&yScale=log&country=Africa+Asia+Europe+North America+Oceania+South America+OWID_WRL

 

Kretanje u poslednjih mesec dana:

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&yScale=log&time=2020-04-21..&country=Africa+Asia+Europe+North America+Oceania+South America+OWID_WRL

Edited May 22, 2020 by vememah

[Kampokei]

Istrazivanje Univerziteta Bocconi i Beckog instituta za demografiju. Dosta scary zakljucak: Two Bocconi scholars consider the decline in life expectancy at local level to be the most reliable measure of the human cost of the epidemic. The province of Bergamo lost 8 years for men and 5.8 years for women.

[vememah]

 

[precog]

trebalo bi proveriti kojim su testovima radili, da li imaju iste/slicne karakteristike. pitanje od milion dolara je da li su svi koji su bili izlozeni virusu razvili bolest/antitela (da li asimptomaticni razvijaju antitela).

[vememah]

Glavni švedski epidemiolog Anders Tegnel pre manje od mesec dana i sad:

 

28.4.

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Tegnell: We are doing two major investigations. We may have those results this week or a bit later in May. We know from modeling and some data we have already – these data are a little uncertain – that we probably had a transmission peak in Stockholm a couple of weeks ago, which means that we are probably hitting the peak of infections right about now. We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-covid-19-sweden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/

 

21.5.

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Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April.
...
Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said the number was a "little lower" than expected "but not remarkably lower, maybe one or a couple of percent."
"It squares pretty well with the models we have," he added, while speaking at a news conference in Stockholm.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Edited May 22, 2020 by vememah

[vememah]

Evo za one koji su se čudili kako to da se obično ne zaraze svi u domaćinstvu kad neki član ima koronavirus:

 

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Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
...
“If you can predict what circumstances are giving rise to these [superspreading] events, the math shows you can really, very quickly curtail the ability of the disease to spread,” says Jamie Lloyd-Smith of the University of California, Los Angeles, who has studied the spread of many pathogens. But superspreading events are ill-understood and difficult to study, and the findings can lead to heartbreak and fear of stigma in patients who touch them off.

Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”

That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Estimates of k for SARS-CoV-2 vary. In January, Julien Riou and Christian Althaus at the University of Bern simulated the epidemic in China for different combinations of R and k and compared the outcomes with what had actually taken place. They concluded that k for COVID-19 is somewhat higher than for SARS and MERS. That seems about right, says Gabriel Leung, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong. “I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.
...

 

 

Preporučujem ceo članak, ima još korisnih informacija:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

Edited May 22, 2020 by vememah

[jms_uk]

Coronavirus: Quarantine plans for UK arrivals unveiled https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52774854

Uskoro....




Ali ne za sve:


Lorry drivers, seasonal farm workers, and coronavirus medics will be exempt.
The requirement will also not apply to those travelling from the Republic of Ireland, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.


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[Milosh76]

Pre deset godina, u regionu Malmea, na jugozapadu Švedske, izvedena je masovna vežba: posle epidemije svinjskog gripa 2009. godine Šveđani su na inicijativu stručnjaka za bezbednost simulirali epidemiju gripa i urađena je analiza rizika kojom je obuhvaćeno 740.000 stanovnika regiona. Naučnici su napravili proračune posledica takve epidemije na region i ispitali efekat različitih mera zaštite, uključujući i zatvaranje škola i ograničenje kretanja. Stručnjaci su godinama anlizirali rezultate simulacije.

 

https://mondo.rs/Info/Svet/a1327364/Svedska-Svedjani-pre-10-godina-vezbali-borbu-sa-epidemijom.html

 

Ovako radi ozbiljna drzava!