BrExit?

[MancMellow]

6 minutes ago, Budja said:

 

 

Ovaj, a koliko nije "certain to vote in EU referendum"?

Jasno je da je vecina omladine za EU ali ne mora bas ovako pristrasnom statistikom da se to pokazuje.

 

Sto se plasenja laboura zelenima i LibDemsima tice, toliko im dobro ide da se ni za jotu nisu pomerili od 2017 po istrazivanjima.

 

Ima i ono istrazivanje da 30% glasaca laburista bi napustilo iste ako podrze drugi referendum (videti jucerasnji Guardian).

 

 

11%. I ne "napustilo", nego, bi bili "less likely" da glasaju za Labour

 

9% of Conservative voters would switch to Labour in those circumstances, but 11% of current Labour voters said it would make them less likely to vote for the party.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/labour-would-lose-voters-with-stop-brexit-policy-poll-suggests

 

Nije problem u apsolutnim brojevima (ili procentima), problem je pre svega geografija i problem je kako posle sa tako izmenjenim (ka centru) glasačkim telom voditi politiku demokratskog socijalizma, dok preostale workere preuzimaju nekakvi fašovi ili BoJo. 

[Anduril]

A ironija je da bi uprav ti krajevi bili najgore pogodjeni Brexitom za razliku od Londona.

Ako su deo glasaca ocigledno budale, to ne znaci da ih u tom budalasenju treba pratiti po svaku cenu. 

To kratkorocno podilazenje glasacima je po meni pogresna strategija - posebno ako dodje kasnije do ekonomskog raspada tih regiona.

Da, Lejbor ce osvojiti mozda vlast tim glasovima ali ce vladati potpunim haosom. 

U takvoj situaciji ce se ti glasaci sa severa ionako okrenuti fasovima. 

[MancMellow]

36 minutes ago, Anduril said:

A ironija je da bi uprav ti krajevi bili najgore pogodjeni Brexitom za razliku od Londona.

Ako su deo glasaca ocigledno budale, to ne znaci da ih u tom budalasenju treba pratiti po svaku cenu. 

To kratkorocno podilazenje glasacima je po meni pogresna strategija - posebno ako dodje kasnije do ekonomskog raspada tih regiona.

Da, Lejbor ce osvojiti mozda vlast tim glasovima ali ce vladati potpunim haosom. 

U takvoj situaciji ce se ti glasaci sa severa ionako okrenuti fasovima. 

Poenta je sledeća. Corbyn blinks first, pozove na referendum. Tu ga Torijevci čekaju, pošto od njih zavisi  hoće li biti referenduma ili izbora, oni treba da raspuste vladu, daju predlog za izbore, pošalju EU zahtev za odlaganjem isticanja A50. I onda kažu - LIAR, napisao u manifestu da se zalaže za sprovođenje Brexita and now this! 

[Budja]

1 hour ago, MancMellow said:

11%. I ne "napustilo", nego, bi bili "less likely" da glasaju za Labour

 

9% of Conservative voters would switch to Labour in those circumstances, but 11% of current Labour voters said it would make them less likely to vote for the party.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/labour-would-lose-voters-with-stop-brexit-policy-poll-suggests

 

Nije problem u apsolutnim brojevima (ili procentima), problem je pre svega geografija i problem je kako posle sa tako izmenjenim (ka centru) glasačkim telom voditi politiku demokratskog socijalizma, dok preostale workere preuzimaju nekakvi fašovi ili BoJo. 

 

Da, 30% se odnosi na ukupno biracko telo.

 

Bilo kako bilo, rec je o tome da, sa stanovista izborne taktike, nije uopste jasno da li je Korbinova strategija pogresna ili ne.

 

To sto isti clanak kaze da bi 40% glasaca LibDemsa i Zelenih glasalo za Labour je potpuno nebitno u situaciji kada, recimo, mrtvi UKIP po polovima ima opet 7% a Zeleni 4%.

 

U tom smislu je prozivanje Korbina da se igra politike sa pro-referendum pozicije LibDems-a i Zelenih krajnje upitno ako im je cilj drugi referendum - logicnije bi bilo da vrse pritisak na izbore gde bi mogao da se vrsi pritisak na Lab manifesto da isti ukljuci referendum. Ovako, slabe Korbinove pozicije oko izbora a jacaju Brexit narativ o izdajnickom parlamentu.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Budja

[Budja]

I jos jedan poll.

 

Quote

A poll by ICM conducted in the wake of last week’s historic government defeat and seen by the Guardian asked voters what should happen next.

The most popular option, backed by 28% of voters, was a no-deal Brexit. Demonstrating the divide in public opinion, the next most popular option, supported by 24% of the public, is to start the process of holding a second referendum.

In the representative online poll of 2,046 adults between 16–18 January, just 8% thought May should press ahead with trying to win support for her deal in parliament, while 11% thought she should call a general election.

 

[MancMellow]

U suštini postoji jasna većina za neku vrstu glasanja. Što je i logično.

[Roger Sanchez]

 

[Gandalf]

[Anduril]

Kad se cita ovo, mozda je Rodzer u pravu - no deal, katastrofa, raspad, nemiri, pa neka se nesto nauce ako vec ne moze drugacije.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

 

Quote

I didn’t expect many people to be in a central Portsmouth Wetherspoons at 10.30am on a Friday morning. But there they all were, in their droves: passionate supporters of Brexit, there to hear the pub chain’s founder and chairman, Tim Martin, make the case for Britain leaving the EU with no deal. Martin has been on the road since November, with the aim of visiting at least 100 of his boozers. The day we crossed paths, he was traversing the south coast, moving on to Southampton and Weymouth: given that it has whetted the appetite of what remains of the country’s local press, drawn large crowds and shifted huge amounts of food and drink, the whole thing looks to have been an unlikely success.

Martin’s case was unconvincing to the point of tedium: a half-argument that ignored what a no-deal Brexit would mean for British exports, and too blithely dismissed all those concerns about supply chains, and chaos at UK ports, let alone what a no-deal scenario would mean for the island of Ireland. But on the level of political sociology, the spectacle presented was compelling: the hardest of the Brexit hardcore, many of them on the pints and riled to snapping point before the speech even got going, and then taken into incandescence by the posse of local Liberal Democrats interrupting Martin’s speech at every turn.

It is quite an experience, watching people repeatedly yell at each other about trade tariffs before they have had their lunch. Even after Martin had put down his microphone, a fierce debate continued. Meanwhile, very familiar mutterings punctuated the argy-bargy, and took the argument out of the realms of politics, into a mish-mash of culture and history: the second world war, the supposedly perfidious Germans, the idea that if we prospered before 1972, why can we not do so again?

Last Thursday, the BBC’s Question Time was broadcast from Derby, where an endorsement for no deal from the writer Isabel Oakeshotttriggered mass whoops and cheers, and yet another explosion of Brexit noise on Twitter. The truth that brief moment underlined is obvious: whatever the warnings from politicians, many people currently support the nightmarish prospect of the UK leaving the EU without any formal agreement.

 

U komentarima se pojavio i dosta dobra paralela izmedju nekadasnjih nemackih pivnica i dasnjih engleskih pabova.

Hoce muskarcine da najebu, i to je to. Problem je samo uvek sto povuku gomilu drugih koji nece.

[MancMellow]

Da, izgleda da smo sve nacionalizme pročešljali, jedino smo zaboravili najstariju naciju na svetu

[hazard]

Kameron u jakoj konkurenciji za debila decenije:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/21/donald-tusk-warned-david-cameron-about-stupid-eu-referendum-bbc

 

Quote

In an interview as part of a BBC documentary, Tusk said: “I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me – and I was really amazed and even shocked – that the only reason wasda  his own party.”

 

Tusk continued: “[He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory.”

 

Apropo obećanja da će uspeti da znatno promeni uslova članstva UK u EU:

 

Quote

He said he also warned him that his attempt to secure a deal on free movement of people before the poll was doomed to fail.

 

In the documentary, Inside Europe: 10 Years of Turmoil, Tusk said: “I told him bluntly ‘Come on David, get real’. I know that all prime ministers are promising to help you, but believe me the truth is that no one has an appetite for revolution in Europe only because of your stupid referendum.

 

“If you try to force us, to hurry us, you will lose everything. And for the first time I saw something close to fear in his eyes. He finally realised what a challenge he was facing.”

 

To je tako kada kalkulišeš o pitanjima od nacionalnog značaja zbog par procenata na izborima, umesto da to radiš jer imaš neku ozbiljnu političku platformu koju želiš da sprovedeš...

[Lancia]

Nemoj tako, covek je vizionar.

[Paul]

plus jean za hazarda, u detaljima je ovo interna bitka...

 

za ove malo sporije, projekt eu nemre se iskljucivo gledat kao ekonomski ...

 

dada  

[Bojan]

Meni izgleda da ovo pominjanje Švajcarske i Norveške samo rasplamsava no deal suportere. A tek kada se povodom svega oglasi i omraženi francuski liberal Makron, koji troši 30.000 dolara na šminku...

 

Inače, oko te elite. Ovi no deal Britanci govore o liberalnoj eliti. Ne mrze oni nužno ljude koji su obrazovani ili bogati. Isto je i obratno. Ne preziru svi elitisti toliko takozvane primitivne Britance (kako bi možda kod nas bio slučaj). I odavno su kod njih pabovi mesto gde se bistri politika. Pa Faraž je svoju karijeru gradio razgovarajući po pabovima.

 

Vidim da danas Mej govori o planu B koji će u suštini biti shvaćen samo kao malo doterani plan A.

[Gandalf]