Politika u UK

[Budja]

4 hours ago, Host said:

Brt nemoj da mi citiras heavyweight influensere sa IL.

 

Nije ti bas dobro poredjenje, recesija se jeste dogodila  

 

OK, to sam napisao jer me mrzi da gledam metodologiju. Ono sto mislim da se dogodilo je da smanjenje zaposlenosti dolazi od privremenih poslova koji se u statistici ravnopravno prikazuju sa full time poslovima, a da se visina zarade racuna samo za FT zaposlene. Al ne mogu da tvrdim jer mozda gresim, a necu da ti dozvolim da lako poentiras. Druga stvar je sto su konzerve godinama sprovodili mere stednje, pa su lako mogli da povecaju plate u javnom sektoru u pogodnom trenutku. Tako je Vucic znacajno povecao penzije kad ih je vratio na stari nivo  

 

Britanija nije u recesiji, barem tako kaze guglanje sa sve vestima od 9. septembra.

UK recession fears recede after surprise economic growth

Country avoids technical recession – but GDP is stagnant across three-month period

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/09/uk-recession-economic-growth-gdp

 

Opet, Venom je pisao, mozda si pomesao sa Nemackom gde je situacija slicna, pretpostavljam zbog Brexita takodje. 

[Budja]

Liam Fox V2.0, Liz Truss.

 

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Foreign leaders want Britain to 'get on with' Brexit in order to begin striking lucrative trade deals, says Liz Truss in first interview in new job

 

[vememah]

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Jeremy Corbyn has lowest leadership satisfaction rating for any opposition leader since 1977 

 

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/jeremy-corbyn-has-lowest-leadership-satisfaction-rating-any-opposition-leader-1977

Edited September 22, 2019 by vememah

[vememah]

Pre samo nešto više od dve godine imao je praktično isto pozitivnih i negativnih, što mu je bio maksimalni domet.

 

Laburisti se vratili na 2. mesto po YouGovu.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2019 by vememah

[Budja]

2 hours ago, Host said:

Ma jok, Venom je pisao o recesiji koja se najavljuje za buducnost. Velika Britanija je u Q2 imala negativan rast GDPa YoY u odnosu na proslu godinu, a takva je bila najava i za treci kvartal. Nisam video tu vest da je Q3 ipak bio pozitivan pa je izbegnuta tehnicka recesija (dva negativna kvartala u nizu), al je jasno kakav je trend za ovu godinu.

 

Ako se dobro secam, najave strucnjaka su bile da ce negativan uticaj Brexita obracunat post festum biti 20% u narednih 8 godina? To znaci da su u proseku prognozirali stagnaciju privrede tokom tog perioda. Ono sto je zanimljivo je da je stagnacija vec na vratima i pre Brexita. Sto bi rekli u Uzicu, eneee

 

Eh, najave strucnjaka za period od 8 godina. Budimo ozbiljni, preciznost je ok za sledeci kvartal, godinu dana manje-vise, dve godine, zaboravi.

 

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Economies are fiendishly complex, but forecasters usually predict short-term trajectories with reasonable accuracy. Projections made in early September for the year ending four months later missed the actual figure by an average of just 0.4 percentage points. Errors rose to 0.8 points when predicting one year out. But over longer horizons forecasts performed far worse. With 22 months of lead time, they misfired by 1.3 points on average—no better than repeating the previous year’s growth rate.

 

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term

 

 

Edited September 22, 2019 by Budja

[Baldrick S.]

Malopre gledam fudbal na skaju i na poluvremenu ladno ide reklama HRM Government: October 31, day when we are leaving EU. Be prepared. Sa informacijama oko pasosa, osiguranja, vozacke. Udaraju na siroke narodne mase.

[radisa]

3 minutes ago, Zlurad said:

Malopre gledam fudbal na skaju i na poluvremenu ladno ide reklama HRM Government: October 31, day when we are leaving EU. Be prepared. Sa informacijama oko pasosa, osiguranja, vozacke. Udaraju na siroke narodne mase.

Ključna reč ja Sky... Jebeni Murdock, po nekim Britancima sa kojima sa pričao, oni i stoji iza cele ove ujdurme... Sad, da li je to tačno ne znam, ali, sve što su mi pričali delovalo mi je logično...

[renne]

Đilas i Šolak

[hazard]

Istraga Bregzitaša Korbina

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-lofty-neutrality/

 

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LONDON — In June 1975, Jeremy Corbyn was living in a dingy one-bedroom flat in Haringey, north London, with his first wife, Jane, and a tabby cat called Harold Wilson.

 

The moggie was named for the then Labour prime minister, for whom the couple felt some affection, having met while working as activists on Wilson’s election campaign the previous year.

 

Corbyn is often linked to mentors on the left, such as Labour grandees Ralph Miliband and Tony Benn. But his regard for the tricksy Wilson is underappreciated and worth revisiting as Corbyn faces increasing pressure from party activists deeply unhappy over his stance on Brexit.

 

The current Labour leader cut his political teeth during the 1966 general election, when, as a member of the Young Socialists, the youth wing of the Labour Party, he campaigned for Wilson in his local constituency, the Shropshire swing seat of The Wrekin.

 

So overjoyed was he by the reelection of the Labour government that as dawn broke on the morning following the count, he and a group of friends climbed the 400-meter summit of The Wrekin (the large hill for which the constituency is named) to sing the Labour party's anthem, "The Red Flag."

 

So it is perhaps no surprise that, as Corbyn faces one of his most difficult Labour conferences since his election as party leader four years ago, he has decided to emulate his hero Wilson during the first European referendum of June 1975.

The 'capitalist club'

In October of the previous year, Labour had fought the general election on a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum once its renegotiation with the European Economic Community (EEC) (zvuči poznato? ) — the precursor to the European Union — was complete.

 

The pledge was taken not at the urging of the public, which polls showed was largely happy with the first 20 months of British membership, but to placate a Labour Party (opet nešto zvuči poznato... ) suspicious of the Tory-negotiated terms of entry.

 

Many on the left were concerned at the prospect of such a huge open market, which, they felt, could only help the forces of capitalism.

 

Members of Corbyn’s wing of the party also feared the other member states, largely ruled at the time by centrist and center-right parties, would prove to be a roadblock for socialist projects by a future left-wing British government.

 

“Corbyn (along with myself and many others on the left) opposed it because we saw the EEC as a capitalist club,” as the Corbyn-sympathetic writer Francis Beckett wrote in the New Statesman in May.

 

With the Labour Party divided on the issue, Wilson agreed to an unprecedented breach of collective Cabinet responsibility: Ministers would be permitted to campaign on either side of the referendum debate. (opet zvuči poznato...this is a pattern ) Six of the 23-strong Cabinet chose to back "No" (to continued British membership), including heavyweights such as Benn, Barbara Castle, Michael Foot and Peter Shore.

 

Like them, Corbyn favored quitting the EEC in 1975, telling journalists on the eve of his election as leader 20 years later: “'I did vote and I voted ‘No.’”

 

And it wouldn't be a one-off. As an MP he voted against the Maastricht Treaty that created the European Union in 1993, against the Lisbon Treaty that forms the current constitutional basis of the EU in 2008, and for a referendum on British membership of the EU as far back as 2011 — breaking the Labour whip to do so.

 

But by the time that referendum was held in 2016, Corbyn was now leader of a party that, in the intervening New Labour decades, had become far more Euro-friendly — certainly compared with 1975.

Lofty neutrality

Euroskepticism was largely the preserve of the right, the “fruitcakes and loonies” as David Cameron memorably once called U.K. Independence Party members. The vast majority of mainstream U.K. politicians had teamed up to campaign to remain in the EU.

 

Corbyn was not yet bold enough to actively move the Labour Party toward a Leave position, or even to advocate for a Wilson-style compromise, so he did what he often does when forced to act in a way he dislikes: He sulked.

 

Old comrades including Tariq Ali have confirmed that Corbyn would have supported Leave had he not been the party's leader. Instead, he kept as low a profile as possible, at one point disappearing on holiday at the height of the campaign.

 

In his memoirs, published last week, Cameron laments Corbyn’s lack of enthusiasm, implying it may have had an impact on the referendum result. “[W]hen I looked to the red team on my left, the leadership, particularly Jeremy Corbyn, just wasn’t there,” he told the Times.

 

Alan Johnson, who was tasked with leading Labour’s Remain campaign, found his work repeatedly thwarted by Corbyn’s failure to attend campaign events, and the leadership’s insistence in watering-down the few speeches and articles he did release. (Corbyn’s chief of staff, Seumas Milne, is as much a Euroskeptic as Corbyn.)

 

Corbyn’s indifference led directly to the greatest threat he ever faced to his leadership, when, following the shocking referendum result, there was a mass walkout of two-thirds of his shadow Cabinet and a no-confidence vote in his leadership.

 

But the Europhiles failed in their bid to unseat the leader, and three years on, little has changed in Team Corbyn’s approach to the EU. Indeed, if anything attitudes have hardened.

 

Where Corbyn paid lip service to Remain in 2016, he has now vowed to sit out a future referendum altogether, going further even than Wilson in 1975.

 

Promising that as prime minister he would negotiate a “sensible” deal with the EU before putting it to the public in a referendum, he wrote in the Guardian: “I will pledge to carry out whatever the people decide, as a Labour prime minister.”

 

In opting for lofty neutrality, Corbyn has put himself at odds with his longtime ally John McDonnell, his Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer and his Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, as well as the vast majority of Labour MPs, activists, members and, indeed, voters.

 

But more important to him, he has remained true to the ideals he held dear when he stroked Harold Wilson the cat while plotting of the downfall of capitalism in his flat in Haringey.

 

And he is doing so with an act of political tightrope walking that would have made the real Harold Wilson proud.

 

A pre neki dan

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/22/corbyn-on-collision-course-with-labour-members-over-brexit

 

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Corbyn explained he was in favour of negotiating a Labour Brexit deal before letting the party decide how it would campaign in a second referendum in an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.

 

When asked if it was in Britain’s long-term interests to remain in the EU, the Labour leader suggested a Labour Brexit deal could be preferable in some circumstances: “It depends on the agreement you have with the European Union outside.”

 

[vememah]

 

[hazard]

Sud jednoglasno odlučio da ima pravo da se izjasni o Džonsonovom zatvaranju parlamenta. Zatim kaže da ovo njegovo zatvaranje nije uobičajeno...sledi dakle odluka o tome da li je bilo zakonito

[hazard]

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Hale says the prorogation did impede parliament.

The effects on the fundamentals of democracy was extreme.

She says the government has not justified such a long prorogation.

 

Hejl je sudija koja čita odluku

[hazard]

Sud presudio da je prorogacija nezakonita. Mic drop

[hazard]

 

 

Ouch

[hazard]

Hejl kaže predsednik parlamenta (Speaker) odlučuje šta će se desiti dalje. Berkou može da se sazove sednicu faktički, ignorišući vladu.

 

Da je Džonson neki normalan političar, odmah bi dao ostavku jer on ovako ne može da vlada. Naravno to se neće desiti