Politika u UK

[hazard]

24 minutes ago, Marvin (Paranoid Android) said:

Ne znam. Prosto ne mogu da vidim kako je bilo koji sporazum van bescarinske unije dobar za proizvođačku industriju, ali takođe, još manje vidim kako država koja je proteklih 35 godina preusmeravala ekonomiju sa proizvođačke na finansijsku i servisnu, bilo to dobro ili loše, može sada da kreće da preokrene to. Znam da non stop trubim u istu tikvu, ali i za proizvođačku i za finansijsku industriju, ostanak u uniji (ili bar na zajedničkom tržištu) je apsolutni sweetspot.

 

Al dobro, samo moja dva centa, u ekonomiju se razumem kao Marica u krivulje.

 

Naravno da bi tranzicija bila bolna. Ali UK je previše velika da bi bila Luksemburg ili Singapur ili Hong Kong. Smanjenje finansijske industrije bi bila ,,sreća u nesreći".

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5a8ab27e-d470-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77

 

Quote

Far more productive than this politically rewarding, but mistaken, focus on the damage done by trade and migration is an examination of contemporary rentier capitalism itself.

 

Finance plays a key role, with several dimensions. Liberalised finance tends to metastasise, like a cancer. Thus, the financial sector’s ability to create credit and money finances its own activities, incomes and (often illusory) profits.

 

A 2015 study by Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi for the Bank for International Settlements said “the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth, and that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth”. When the financial sector grows quickly, they argue, it hires talented people. These then lend against property, because it generates collateral. This is a diversion of talented human resources in unproductive, useless directions.

Finance also creates rising inequality. Thomas Philippon of the Stern School of Business and Ariell Reshef of the Paris School of Economics showed that the relative earnings of finance professionals exploded upwards in the 1980s with the deregulation of finance. They estimated that “rents” — earnings over and above those needed to attract people into the industry — accounted for 30-50 per cent of the pay differential between finance professionals and the rest of the private sector.

 

Taj fokus na finansije i prateće i povezane usluge je i jedan od razloga zašto je do Bregzita i došlo...

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

36 minutes ago, Dagmar said:

Gde su otišli ako nije tajna?

 

Sad zaboravih, moja cifra je u stvari 6. Tri za Švajcarsku (od toga jedan Britanac), dvoje za Australiju (Oziji, mada živeli ovde 20 godina, do sada nisu pominjali selidbu) i još jedan Britanac za Belgiju.

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

40 minutes ago, Dagmar said:

Ovo kao ono 'ješćemo korenje', pa posle kad stiglo korenje kuku lele ali i dalje se voli Sloba. Sorry na poređenju.

 

Ne, to je tačno to, i ja sam pominjao korijenje već.

 

 

41 minutes ago, Dagmar said:

Ovo vodi potpunom odsustvu preispitivanja za donete odluke i mišljenja. Jednostavno, ja se ježim od ljudi koji su isto mislili pre 20, 7 godina i sad.

 

Isto, a toliko puta čujem taj isprazni sentiment kao nešto hvale ili ponosa vredno, kad mi ljudi kurčevito kažu "Ja se ne menjam, ja što sam mislio kad sam imao 20, toga se i danas držim". Jbt, kada bih shvatio da sam potpuno istih mišljenja i pogleda kao kad sam imao 20, plašio bih se da sam negde debelo pogrešio u životu.

[Dagmar]

2 minutes ago, Marvin (Paranoid Android) said:

 

Sad zaboravih, moja cifra je u stvari 6. Tri za Švajcarsku (od toga jedan Britanac), dvoje za Australiju (Oziji, mada živeli ovde 20 godina, do sada nisu pominjali selidbu) i još jedan Britanac za Belgiju.

 

Hvala.

[Dagmar]

4 minutes ago, Marvin (Paranoid Android) said:

 Jbt, kada bih shvatio da sam potpuno istih mišljenja i pogleda kao kad sam imao 20, plašio bih se da sam negde debelo pogrešio u životu.

 

Ne bi, ha, da isto misliš kao pre 20 godina ne bi ni shvatio da postoji neki malecakni problemčić sa tim.

[Venom]

Nisam rekao da je recesija nepovezana sa brexitom, nego da su razlozi nebitni. Ako/kad do toga dodje, bice krivi remaineri sto su minirali brexit.

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

20 minutes ago, Venom said:

Nisam rekao da je recesija nepovezana sa brexitom, nego da su razlozi nebitni. Ako/kad do toga dodje, bice krivi remaineri sto su minirali brexit.

 

Ah, pogrešno sam razumeo. Jer i ovde se često pominje moguća recesija u Nemačkoj s rezonom "Pa šta ako će Brexit doneti recesiju, eno recesija je i u Nemačkoj, sve je to isto"

 

A da, ovo što si želeo reći je otprilike ono na šta sam pucao na prethodnoj strani.

[vememah]

On 19.9.2019. at 8:33, hazard said:

Da li je ovo nakon Korbinove izjave da bi na novom referendumu ostao neutralan?

Evo pošto je izašao PDF s rezultatima, da se ispravim: deo jeste, deo nije pošto je rađena 17. i 18. septembra.

 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcvjryxlw9/TheTimes_190918_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

[Budja]

4 hours ago, Marvin (Paranoid Android) said:

"There will be no downside to Brexit, only considerate upside" - David Davis

"Nobody is talking about leaving our place in the Single Market" - Daniel Hannan

"The day after we vote leave, we hold all the cards, and we can choose the path we want" - Michael Gove

"I think we could very easily get a better deal than we have at the moment" - Douglas Carswell

"The new FTA deal between UK and EU should be the easiest deal in human history" - Liam Fox

"Trade relations with the EU can be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of tea" - Gerard Batten

"Would it be terrible if we were like Norway and Switzerland?" - Nigel Farage

"350 million a week to the NHS"

 

 

Dosta opipljive posledice koje su se već dogodile:

 

-Oko 1 triliona funti asseta je premešteno iz Londona u EU

-Oko 6 200 poslova u finansijskom sektoru je već otišlo, procenjuje se da će u narednih 6 do 12 meseci to udovstručiti u slučaju No Deala

-Priliv investicija u UK koji bi se dogodio da nije bilo Brexita je teško i proceniti (ali da kažemo 66 milijardi, 3% GDP-a prema studiji Standard & Poorsa, ili 40 milijardi po proceni Bank of England)

 

Zatvaranje firmi koje se već dogodilo:

 

Samo prekjuče: Brexit pain blamed as Car Store owner cuts 300 jobs

 

Gotovo svake nedelje se pojavi mala ili veća vest o tome da se ova ili ona firma zatvorila zbog direktnih posledica pada funte, manjka investicija, iseljavanja u EU, ali to uglavnom prolazi ispod radara jer se ne radi o Big News, uopšte se ne radi o "par fabrika", to je vrlo površan pogled na nekoliko najvećih imena, koja su uglavnom ograničena na auto-industriju.

 

Recimo na ovom threadu je sakupljeno više od 300 primera zatvaranja radnji, smanjivanja investicija, transfera poslova ili asseta iz UK u EU. Samo jedna od njih je recimo gubitak od 200+ poslova u inače maloj fabrici u Velsu još u novembru prošle godine, ili gubitak od sveukupno 200 poslova u Severnoj Irskoj, ovo sve su male firme koje nisu dovoljno velike da se nađu na BREAKING NEWS recimo poput velikih Toyote, Nissana i Honde. A i kada giganti poput Toyote, Nissana i Honde naglase da se zatvaraju radna mesta i o tome se čuje na vestima, na to populacija ili odmahuje rukom da to nema veze sa Brexitom nego da je zbog smanjivanja proizvodnje dizel motora, ili čega već. Užasno veliki broj poslova je otišao u retail industriji, u zatvaranju radnji i prodavnica, kako malih i srednjih, tako i pretnje giganata poput Debenhamsa ili M&S koji se tu i tamo pojave na vestima. Međutim, nevidljiv je gubitak desetina hiljada poslova koje se pomenu tu i tamo u nekoj statističkoj analizi, recimo čak iz novembra 2017 da je Britanija izgubila 65 000 retail poslova od referenduma, dakako da je Brexit tek jedan od faktora, ali pad funte, stagniranje zarada su najveći razlozi tome bili. Ovih dana u vestima se tek malo pojavljuje ogroman turistički gigant Thomas Cook, koji svakako ne propada samo zbog Brexita, ali po je to sopstvenom priznanju jedan od ogromnih faktora, a radi se o skoro 9 000 poslova samo u Britaniji.

 

Sve to nikako nije "par zatvorenih fabrika"; radi se o desetinama hiljada radnih mesta i vrlo mogućom recesijom koja dolazi.

 

Uostalom, "nestašice hrane i lekova" čak nisu ni pominjane pre referenduma, one su prvi put dospele u žižu javnosti kao upozorenja i nalazi same vlade, iste one vlade koja već tri godine fanatično pokušava da izađe iz te unije.

 

Pri tom, juče izašao snimak gde BBC reporter priča na ulici sa čovekom koji je dijabetičar, govori mu da No Deal može značiti kašnjenje lekova, ali to nema veze, važno je da izađemo get on with it:

 

 

 

Remaineri su skroz poludeli. Recimo, ovaj tviteras stavlja u usta ovom čoveku ono što on nije rekao. 

[Budja]

4 hours ago, Host said:

Pa dobro, osim odliva milijardi &&&&&, osim bezanije finteka, osim smanjenja investicija, osim zatvaranja fabrika, distributera i prodavnica, osim gubitka poslova, sta se to tako strasno desilo najavom Brexita?

 

Uostalom, jel to ta Evropa kojoj tezimo?

 

Jebi ga.

 

Confirmation bias indivudualnih sajtova i izdvojenih cinjenica protiv statistika nasa dika.

 

Idemo redom:

 

Investicije

Is the rise in UK business investment a turning point?

https://www.ft.com/content/c8f48c66-7553-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab

 

Usporavanje, ali uporediti 2018-2019 sa 2009, ovde fali 2008 da se vidi dramaticna razlika. Rast investicija je usporen ali nista dramaticno.

 

 

Zaposlenost

 

% nezaposlenih

Rast plata:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-growth

 

Gle, sta im radi DO SADA Brexit.

 

 

Prodavnice

Pretpostavljam da je, recimo, zatvaranje Woolvorth-a pre X godina ili Sears prosle godine imaju veze sa brexitom a ne sa promenom business modela retailera.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/15/business/sears-bankruptcy/index.html

Thomas Cook takodje nema veze sa promenom biznis modela turistickih kompanija.

 

 

Rezime:

- Poslovi se nisu izgubili. (To znaci da je na desetine hiljada izgubljenih poslova, kreirano vise novih.)

- Investicije su u ravnotezi, nisu dramaticno pale

- Zatvaranje retailera nema veze s Brexitom.

 

 

Naglasavanje pojedinacnih slucajeva a koji na zivot gradjana JOS UVEK nisu imali uticaja je jednako kao Vucicevo "Kako nam dobro ide" u ogledalu.

 

DO SADA Brexitasi nemaju mnogo licnog empirijskog iskustva koje bi im govorilo u prilog da im se Breixt usrao u zivot. Stavise, pre mogu da potvrde svoje nevevoranje u doom i gloom eksperata. Takodja, komparativna situacija sa ostalim zemljama ZA SADA ne izlgeda crno.

 

Edited September 20, 2019 by Budja

[hazard]

https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-bind/

 

Quote

Polling suggests Corbyn is taking a huge gamble. A snap poll for POLITICO by Hanbury Strategy earlier this month found just 8 percent of voters said their vote at the next election would be motivated by investment in public services. In contrast, 17 percent said their primary focus will be delivering Brexit on October 31 and 11 percent on revoking Article 50 and remaining in the European Union.

 

According to Chris Curtis, research manager at YouGov, polling suggests Labour could lose three times as many votes to the Lib Dems as to the Brexit Party. In one poll earlier this month (a particularly dire one for Labour which had them at 23 points, behind the Conservatives at 34), 21 percent of those who voted Labour in 2017 now say they will vote Lib Dem, versus just 7 percent who would vote Brexit Party and 5 percent who would vote Conservative. Nine percent of 2017 Labour voters said they would shift to the pro-Remain Green party.

 

“It is undeniably true that the biggest threat to the Labour Party at the moment is their Remain flank, not their Leave flank,” Curtis said.

 

[Sludge Factory]

5 hours ago, Marvin (Paranoid Android) said:

vrlo realna opasnost od odlaska Škotske, i generalna kurcobolja obilnog dela stanovništva da se UK potpuno raspadne na države članice.

 

4 hours ago, hazard said:

Naravno da bi tranzicija bila bolna. Ali UK je previše velika da bi bila Luksemburg ili Singapur ili Hong Kong. Smanjenje finansijske industrije bi bila ,,sreća u nesreći".

 

Sad cu i ja u Mali Perica/Marica mode, ali mozda bi najbolje i bilo da se UK raspadne. Skotska (i mozda Vels) neka izboksuju od EU neki skraceni/redukovani format tranzicije ka/readmisije u EU, Severna Irska nek se pripoji Irskoj uz sustinsku autonomiju™ i gotovo. A Englezi (i mozda Vesani) nek postanu Singapurtjani, pa da probaju da uzivaju u sebi samima. 

[Sludge Factory]

6 minutes ago, Host said:

U pravu si. Ovo je bas Mali Perica razmisljanje. 

 

Naravno da je Mali Perica, poenta je lakrdija u koju se pretvorila UK politika. 

[Gandalf]

 

1 hour ago, hazard said:

Labour leader finds himself in unfamiliar territory: the middle ground.

not unfamiliar.

 

Trident without the Warheads? Not as daft as it sounds

Jeremy Corbyn’s latest suggestion is that, perhaps, we could retain Trident submarines (and the jobs that go with them) but have them without the warheads? This would satisfy both his Trade Union allies and his CND chums. Like most people my initial reaction was – “what?”

 

But then I started thinking about it and the following story came to mind, which might help explain this bizarre (by normal standards) idea...

 

Back in the early 1980s I was a BT engineer and active member of the then Post Office Engineering Union (POEU) – branch secretary of Westminster branch to be precise. The TUC in Blackpool was a surreal experience as Trade Unions with clearly diametrically opposed views on various subjects tried to get the upper hand or, more often, tried to forge some sort of fudged compromise for the sake of “unity” (a big issue in the TU and Labour movements).

 

When a motion on ‘energy policy’ was moved with a pro-nuclear energy speech from one of the engineering unions and then seconded with an anti-nuclear speech from the miners (Arthur Scargill no less) me and my comrades at least saw the funny side of it. There was another debate on the (then proposed) Channel Tunnel coming up so we decided to emulate the ‘energy policy’ example. One lot of transport unions (seafarers) were against whilst another (railway workers) were in favour.

 

So we concocted – out of sheer boredom and mischief – a ‘composite’ resolution that proposed a channel tunnel, but one with a canal in it big enough to take cross-channel ferries – satisfying both sides. ‘Resolutionary socialism’ at its finest.

 

The serious point here is that the British Trade Union and Labour movements have a very long tradition of this sort of apparently idiotic compromise in order to maintain the hallowed “unity”. Completely mad and self-contradictory motions can be cobbled together to gloss over real policy schisms. Where our continental cousins have had separate parties for communists, socialists and social democrats and often separate trade unions too, Britain stuck with one TUC and one Labour Party. But it meant that all those ideological and sectional interests had to be somehow remain ‘united’ – the result was a culture of fudge.

 

Jeremy Corbyn cut his political teeth inside this ‘resolutionary socialist’ culture in the 70s and 80s. He’s spent his whole political life in halls and meetings fretting over just such weird disputes. Is it any wonder then he can come up with something as patently daft as non-nuclear armed nuclear deterrent submarines? It’s not that far away from our Channel Tunnel Canal. But we at least recognized the silliness of what we were proposing.

Edited September 20, 2019 by Gandalf

[vememah]

 

Potemkin i u UK.

Quote

 

The harsh reality of underfunding at my hospital? Swept away for Johnson visit

Doctor gives anonymous account of chronic understaffing and lack of resources at Whipps Cross, the hospital visited by the PM

 

As told to Matthew Weaver

Wed 18 Sep 2019 21.15 BST

Last modified on Thu 19 Sep 2019 01.05 BST

 

I was one of the doctors who met Boris Johnson today. This was a highly staged press event in a newly refurbished hospital ward at Whipps Cross hospital where the prime minister met a few select members of staff and patients. This event completely brushed over the harsh realities of this chronically underfunded, understaffed and poorly resourced hospital.

 

The hospital is held together only by the hard work and dedication of its healthcare workers but it cannot be sustained for much longer under these pressures.

 

I’m so glad that Omar Salem [the man who confronted the prime minister on Wednesday about the hospital’s care of his daughter] said the things he did. He was just telling the truth about what it is like to be on the receiving end of poor staffing levels and under-resourcing.

 

It was a shame some of the senior executives were trying to shut Salem up. But he got his point across effectively.

 

It just wasn’t true that there were no press there. It was all being filmed. It was very staged.

 

We were told yesterday that there was a special guest coming and nobody knew until this morning that it was Johnson. All the staff were lined up in a row in front of a team of camera crew and photographers. When I saw it was him I wanted to say something, but I didn’t want to lose my job.

 

I’ve been thinking about it all day and felt I had to say something because NHS hospitals today can be unsafe places. Whipps Cross [in Leytonstone, north-east London] is particularly understaffed and under-resourced so people don’t get the care that they need as promptly as they need.

 

And this visit was not reflective of the realities of working at this hospital. Johnson was taken to the nicest ward in the hospital; there were flowers on display and classical music was playing in the background. I wish the prime minister could have seen some of the other wards, which are nothing like what he saw today. He should come on a night shift and see how everything doesn’t function at two in the morning.

 

I’m disappointed with the care I can give patients. I work in acute adult medicine and I constantly feel that I am doing a disservice to patients and their families.

 

There aren’t enough computers and the ones we have got are very slow. So if you have a sick patient in the night you can often spend 20 minutes logging on to a computer. And then it can can take another 20 minutes trying to access the equipment and organise basic investigations.

 

Discharges and diagnosis are often delayed by people waiting for scans. Patients who are medically fit to discharge are waiting in the hospital for social services to kick in. They end up being there for weeks. And then they can get hospital-acquired pneumonia.

 

There are not enough staff on any level – nursing, physiotherapy, doctors. It is just chronically understaffed. The building is falling to pieces. It is either too cold or too hot. I could go on and on.

 

I love medicine, but you just can’t do your job properly. You don’t have time to talk to patients or families. Everybody is really demoralised. There’s no point in complaining because you know nothing will be done.

 

This is just what the NHS is like now.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/sep/18/the-harsh-reality-of-underfunding-at-my-hospital-swept-away-for-johnson-visit