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Rat u Zalivu - ekonomske posledice

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  • Kad se priča o nafti, dizelu i gasu većina misli na transport, ali to je samo deo problema. Npr. većina lekova, od pantoprazola, paracetamola, ibuprofena, aspirina, antidepresivi i anksiolitici kao ci

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  • . Dobar post, mnogi nisu svesni ovog spiska koji moze prilicno da se produzi. Tramp je skinuo sankcije sa Beloruske najvece banke i najvecih proizvodjaca kalijuma portrebnog za djubrivo, verovatno

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OPEC+ warns of cost of repairing energy assets in Middle East

Eight countries forming the core of the OPEC+ group of oil producers on Sunday voiced concern over Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure as oil shortages persist amid the war in the Middle East.

"Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability," the countries said in a joint statement after an online meeting.

They also highlighted the "critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy" - a reference to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked in reaction to US-Israeli attacks.

The group - consisting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman - said they would increase oil production in May by 206,000 barrels per day.

Given the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil trade passes, the move is more symbolic than practical, as the oil market faces a supply problem rather than a production shortage.

Much of the available oil supply is currently going to Asia, namely China, Japan and South Korea, according to Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Germany's Commerzbank. "Asia is currently sucking everything up like a vacuum cleaner," he said.

US President Donald Trump has urged countries facing shortages to source oil from the United States. However, the impact of this on global prices remains uncertain, as they are determined by global supply, which has been restricted due to the war.

According to figures from the International Energy Agency in March, countries in the Gulf region have reduced their daily oil production by at least 10 million barrels, or nearly 10% of global demand, citing limited storage capacity for oil that cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Otkud u Nigeriji da postupi toliko?

1 hour ago, Marcus Wulffings said:

Otkud u Nigeriji da postupi toliko?

Nigerija proizvodi sirovu ali uvozi preradjenu naftu. Zimbabve deo uvozi iz Bahreina, preko Mozambika. Verujem da i ostale zemlje imaju slicne probleme ali mozda imaju nacine da privremeno iznivelisu ovaj talas poskupljenja. Zimbabve koji je u raspadu vec jako dugo to sigurno nema.

Hvalio se pre dve godine onaj njihon (nigerijski) državni tajkun Dangote, pandan Miškoviću, kako je započeo gradnju prve privately held rafinerije u Nigeriji.

Pa upravo to - nema Nigerija naftu već Mišković Dangote, a on je neće prodavati Nigerijcima za kikiriki, već onome ko plati više

Zasto prave ove videe od 45 minuta ne bi li rekli par prostih stvari, ko gubi vreme na ovo.

Pa u suštini ovo gore što sam napisao, plus da su države raspad i da uvek u vremenima krize (kovid pandemija, rat u Ukrajini) donose pogrešne odluke. Tako da će opet siromašni i države osiromašiti, a buržuji i feudalci se obogatiti još više

Konvoji ruskihn tankera nafte pored irske obale u Atlantiku. Veliko uvecanje broja ruskih tankera poslednjih par nedelja zbog sukoba u Perijskom zalivu. Izbegavaju Lamans, zbog pretnji Britanaca da ce pleniti broodve a verujem da im je lakse ovom rutom, iako duza ako idu iz Baltika, koristiti podmornice u Atlantku kao pratnju konvojima.

The Irish Times
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Convoy of Russian shadow-fleet tankers monitored off west...

Five of the vessels travel through Irish exclusive economic zone in likely bid to discourage boarding attempts, say military sources
A large number of “shadow fleet” oil tankers were detected off the Irish west coast during the past week, forcing authorities to send up both Air Corps and Coast Guard aircraft in shifts to monitor them.

Five of the vessels travelled in convoy south through the Irish exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in what military sources said was a likely effort to discourage boarding attempts.

The shadow fleet refers to a collection of several hundred vessels, often old and in poor condition, which are used by Russia to transport sanctioned oil.

All five of the ships in the convoy are subject to EU sanctions. They were carrying an estimated four million barrels of sanctioned oil from Russia. One of the ships was 23 years old and another was 21.

Several other sanctioned tankers passed through the EEZ during the past week, while on Wednesday, a Russian fishing vessel previously accused of acting as a covert Russian maritime surveillance ship also passed through Irish economic waters.

An Irish security source said the number of shadow fleet vessels passing through the EEZ in recent days was “unprecedented”.

Vessels carrying sanctioned Russian oil are increasingly opting to travel around Ireland instead of taking the quicker and safer route to the English Channel.

This follows an announcement last week by the British government that the royal navy would begin seizing shadow fleet vessels passing through the channel.

There is no law against ships travelling through another country’s exclusive economic zone. However, the British government said shadow fleet vessels are effectively “stateless”, meaning they can be legally boarded and seized in international waters.

The Irish Government has recently signalled it intends to start inspecting such vessels and legislation is being drafted to grant the Naval Service additional powers to board ships at sea.

The Government has stopped short of committing to seizing the ships, however.

The jump in shadow fleet traffic off the west coast has placed additional pressure on Defence Forces resources. Air Corps maritime patrol aircraft were up monitoring the vessels most days over the past week. On Thursday, military aircraft and Coast Guard fixed-wing aircraft monitored the convoy in shifts as it travelled through the EEZ.

Edited by Emerald

  • Author
14 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Zasto je farsa?

Stvarno je manje napada, mada je to trend od ranije, duze su trajali pregovori Ono sto se desilo sa cenom nafte da je posle pocetnog pada skocila I sada se krece $95 -100, bila je oko $90.

Verovatno nije jasno kako ce se ovo implementirati I da li ce Iran naplacivati prolaze, sto ima posledice po cenu.

Mada misli da ce nastaviti pad kada se Njujork otvori

Ukratko, nema sustinske promene za firme u Evropi i (Istocnoj) Aziji. Taman da nista nije unisteno u Zalivu, a jeste ohoho, trebace barem 3 meseca da se stvari vezane za logistiku vrate u normalu. Npr jedan LNG tanker koji je bio u Omanskom zalivu pocetkom marta je otisao za SAD da natovari gas i ode do Japana Sad treba da se isprazni i da se vrati na rutu Katar - Japan(ili neka druga zemlja). Oko 3000 brodova je zaglavljeno u Zalivu i jos toliko u Omanskom zalivu i Arapskom moru. Treba sve to sada istovariti/utovariti.

Cena nafte je relativna, to sto se oglasava je nafta sa isporukom za 3 meseca. Realnost je da je Ural na nivou od 120+ sa tendenciom rasta i da je nafta "na moru" oko 150 usd.

Sve u svemu nema tu razloga ni za skokove berze ni za veliki optimizam. Po meni, u najboljem slicaju samo moze da bude na istom nivou i dosta firmi ce tek osetiti potrese.

Pritom, sta je stvarno dogovoreno to niko ne zna. U sred Zenevskih pregovora je doslo do bomardovanja i sta je prepreka da se bijenje nastavi. Nista se nije politicki promenilo, osim sto su, za sada, prestale da padaju bombe.

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