Oilopoly

[Ravanelli]

 

što će svet biti lepše mesto kada se nafta i gas zamene nečim drugim

 

al da bude obnovljivo!

 

ne znam da li shvataš koliko su gas&nafta učinili da on bude bolji za ovih oko 100 godina, koliko se koristi.

jedna od najbitnijih pojava u par hiljada godina čoveka

Edited December 9, 2014 by Ravanelli

[hazard]

 

ne znam da li shvataš koliko su gas&nafta učinili da on bude bolji za ovih oko 100 godina, koliko se koristi.

jedna od najbitnijih pojava u par hiljada godina čoveka

 

 

Oćeš i u točku da mi objašnjavaš?

[Braća Strugacki]

to sa točkom je bila greška od ranije, da je četvrtast više bi se nafte trošilo pri prevozu, pa bi nafta bila vrednija

[Zaz_pi]

Prelazak na alternativu ce se znacajno usporiti ako cena nafte ostane nize. To je jedan od razloga zasto Saudijci zele nizu cenu. Vec sam o tome pricao, to je kao drzanje heroinskog zavisnika sa dosta novca sto vise u zivotu. Ako cene odu suvise visoko to moze da ih ugrozi jer ce se traziti nesto drugo kao zamena jer ce visoka cena izavzati recesije po Japanu i EU, usporiti Kinu, Indiju i SAD.

[Roger Sanchez]

OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut output even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said.

OPEC isn’t planning to change its Nov. 27 decision to keep the group’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, Suhail Al-Mazrouei said. Venezuela supports an OPEC meeting given the price slide, though the country hasn’t officially requested one, an official at Venezuela’s foreign ministry said Dec. 12. The group is due to meet again on June 5.

“We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Mazrouei told Bloomberg yesterday at a conference in Dubai. “We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself.” He said current conditions don’t justify an extraordinary OPEC meeting. “We need to wait for at least a quarter” to consider an urgent session, he said.

No Mercy! No Quarter!

[Zaz_pi]

 

Brent below $60: Prepare for 'dramatic' investment cuts

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6ZRJitIhms

[Ravanelli]

dobar članak, da bude odličan mu fali da vidi šta se događa sa projektima u planu i koliko se odustaje od njih

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/exxon-mobil-shows-why-u-s-oil-output-rises-as-prices-plummet.html

 

 

 

“Companies that are already producing oil will continue to operate those wells because the cost of drilling them is already sunk into the ground,”

 

 

The average cost to operate an existing well in most parts of the U.S. “is about $20 a barrel,” Petrie said. “It might be $5 higher or it might be $5 lower, that’s the out-of-pocket costs that we’re talking about. Until you dip into that and start losing money on a cash basis day in, day out, you don’t think about shutting in” wells.

 

 

Those investments, which represent “sunk costs,” are no longer a drain on cash flow, Cosgrove said. Instead, they generate capital companies use to repay debt, fund additional drilling, pay out dividends and buy back shares, he said.

[Ravanelli]

dobilo je i ime - "opec price war" :)

 

http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/oil-prices

 

[Ravanelli]

i za kraj današnjeg javljanja, veoma interesantna infografika

 

america shakes off oil addiction

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/

[hazard]

hm, vrlo interesantno!

[Eraserhead]

Zanimljiva analiza.

 

 

There are zombies in the oil fields.

 

After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela.

 

In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it.

 

The chart below shows the break-even points for the top 400 new fields and how much future oil production they represent. Less than a third of projects are still profitable with oil at $70. If the unprofitable projects were scuttled, it would mean a loss of 7.5 million barrels per day of production in 2025, equivalent to 8 percent of current global demand.

 

How Profitable Is $70 Oil?

 

 

Making matters worse, Brent prices this week dipped further, below $60 a barrel for the first time in more than five years. Why? The U.S. shale-oil boom has flooded the market with new supply, global demand led by China has softened, and the Saudis have so far refused to curb production to prop up prices.

 

It’s not clear yet how far OPEC is willing to let prices slide. The U.A.E.’s energy minister said on Dec. 14 that OPEC wouldn’t trim production even if prices fall to $40 a barrel. An all-out price war could take up to 18 months to play out, said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a financial research group in Washington.

 

If cheap oil continues, it could be a major setback for the U.S. oil boom. In the chart below, ClearView shows projected oil production at four major U.S. shale formations: Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian and Niobrara. The dark blue line shows where oil production levels were headed before the price drop. The light blue line shows a new reality, with production growth dropping 40 percent.

 

Even $75 Oil Crashes the Shale-Oil Party

 

 

The Goldman tally takes the long view of project finance as it plays out over the next decade or more. But the initial impact of low prices may be swift. Next year alone, oil and gas companies will make final investment decisions on 800 projects worth $500 billion, said Lars Eirik Nicolaisen, a partner at Oslo-based Rystad Energy. If the price of oil averages $70 in 2015, he wrote in an email, $150 billion will be pulled from oil and gas exploration around the world.

 

An oil price of $65 dollars a barrel next year would trigger the biggest drop in project finance in decades, according to a Sanford C. Bernstein analysis last week.

 

A pause in exploration and development may sound like good news for investors concerned about climate change. A vocal minority have been warning for years that potentially trillions of dollars of untapped assets may become stranded due to climate policies and improved energy efficiency. The challenges faced by oil developers today may provide a small sense of what's to come.

 

However, these glut-driven prices can’t stay low forever. Oil production hasn’t slowed yet, but as zombie projects go unfunded, it will. This is how the boom-bust-boom of the oil market goes: prices fall, then production follows, pushing prices higher again. The longer this standoff goes, the more zombies will languish and the sharper the rebounding price spike may be.

 

 

[Zaz_pi]

Drugi graf je porilicno smesan jer cak i da je barel nafte ostao na $100 predvidjanje je bilo da ce SAD doseci vrhunac proizvodnje 2015/16 i tako ostati do 2019/2020 a onda sledi pad. To ne kazam ja vec zvanicne institucije SAD-EIA:

 

 

 

Ovo je pisano kada je barel bio preko $100.

Ono sto moze sada da se desi je brzi pad jer ce proizvodnja skociti u prvoj polovini 2015 jer su zapoceti neki projekti koji nece biti zaustavljeni. Ali geologija uske nafte i skriljaca je problemticna i mora stalno da se ulaze u nove bunare kako proizvodnja ne bi pala brzo.

U svakom slucaju, proizvodnja bi uskoro dosegla vrhunac 2015-2016 cak i na mogo visoj ceni nego danas.

edit:

Rezerve u Bakenu i Igl Fordu su nekih 10-12 milijardi barela, na nekih  $80-100 za barel. Ako ta dva polja proizvode preko milijardu barelu godisnje, sto se sada desava, oni su suvi potpuno za 10 godina. E, ali nije moguce drzati do kraja ovu proizvodnju vec proizvodnja dosigne vrhunac a onda pocne da pada i sve to ima izgled Gausove raspodele.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Zaz_pi

[Ravanelli]

da, ok clanak. kao i gomile drugih koji koriste ovaj trentak da se analizira trziste, jer su poremecaji dusu dali za to

 

niko jos nije uspeo da udje u proizvodne profile americke nove proizvodnje i videti dinamiku (intetesuje nas kad pocinje da pada proizvodnja). kada se to izanalizira mozemo znati kada ce se cene vratiti

[Ravanelli]

[Ravanelli]

jedan fejspalm članak u novostima, preneli b92 i правда. ovo je otprilike da vidite koji je nivo profesionalizma u pitanju.

 

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prvo, naftne rezerve srbije su državna/vojna tajna i nikada do sada nisam pročitao da je neko  davao cifru kolike su domaće rezerve :D

mislim da će autori teksta i ljubinko morati na jedan razgovor u ministarstvo odbrane

 

 

 

Prirodni rezervoari Srbije imaju u rezervama oko 14 miliona tona nafte i gasa

 

 

tu ide red nejasnoće

 

Od ukupno 14 miliona tona rezervi, ne možemo reći kolike su tačne rezerve nafte, a kolike gasa, jer pre nego što izvadimo energente iz zemlje, ne znamo u šta ćemo ih pretvoriti

ovo ne znam šta mu znači. kakvo pretvaranje?

 

 

 

onda se nastavlja sa megalomanijom u brojevima bez dodadtnih objašnjenja.

 

Geološke rezerve, što su naše dugoročne zalihe, su oko 50 miliona tona.

 

ovo je original oil in place, što se onda množi sa sa koeficijentom koji je maksimalno moguće "izvući" iz zemlje. za gas je to oko 50%, za naftu, maksimalno 25%. naravno sve zavisi od geologije svakog nalazišta, ali recimo da su ovi brojevi koje sam dao prosek industrije. tako da ovo jesu možda ukupne rezerve, ali se njih nažalost nećemo nagledati.

 

 

onda jedna ofrlje cifra

 

Različite procene stručnjaka idu i do 170 miliona tona neotkrivene nafte na našem području

 

saznaje sa da ima i vlasi i ekipa imaju nafte, što je čak mislim i teoretski nemoguće. nemam pojma ni za jedno nalazište ili proizvodnju tamo

Za sada su najveća nalazišta smeštena u Vojvodini i u Požarevačkoj depresiji, od Negotina, preko Centralne Srbije. Istraživanja se rade u okolini Kraljeva, Požarevca, Negotina, Jagodine i u regionu Mačve. 

Edited January 5, 2015 by Ravanelli