3opge Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) da. ovde u Americi svako razuman jasno vidi da je napao Iran zbog poboljsanja svoje pozicije u kampanji. Edited January 3, 2020 by 3opge
dragance Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 Mislim da preterujete (nadam se) pričom o all-out ratu u Iraku i nekom velikom odmazdom Irana. Irak je podeljena zemlja, ima tamo njih dosta kojima ovo odgovara, a Amerikanci su uvek izdavali šiite u Iraku još od Buša seniora. Za Iran očekujem da roknu Saudijce ili nešto povećaju u Jemenu. Ostalo teško da mogu nešto više. Niko od Evropljana/UK nije bio prethodno obavešten. To će Trampari doći glave na duže staze.
Redoran Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 U to ime, Vrhovni savet za nacionalnu bezbednost (predsedava Khamenei) je upravo saopštio da je doneo odluku o odgovoru i da će se isti osetiti uzduž i popreko regiona.
Tsai Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Redoran said: U to ime, Vrhovni savet za nacionalnu bezbednost (predsedava Khamenei) je upravo saopštio da je doneo odluku o odgovoru i da će se isti osetiti uzduž i popreko regiona. Daj link pls. Uzasne su ovo stvari.
Ayatollah Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, Redoran said: U to ime, Vrhovni savet za nacionalnu bezbednost (predsedava Khamenei) je upravo saopštio da je doneo odluku o odgovoru i da će se isti osetiti uzduž i popreko regiona. Ne verujem da će se desiti bilo šta epohalno, verovatno će biti neko luđenje Hezbolaha po Izraelu i Huta iz Jemena po KSA. Neki radikalniji potezi, poput zatvaranja Hormuza ili napada na USA ambasadu u Bagdadu, su malo verovatni, i tu Iran može samo da izgubi. Btw, ne sumnjam da ima onih u iranskom rukovodstvu kojima je intimno pao kamen sa srca kad su Ameri roknuli Solejmanija, javno to neće priznati nikada, naravno.
Budja Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 Sta znam, Pluton u Saturnu, kazu astrolozi da su 10-11 januarl kljucni. Ostaje da se uzdamo da ako je jedna strana u sukobu pametna, da to valjda smanjuje mogucnost haosa. Vokabular na stranu, pre ce Iran reagovati kasnije nego pre. SAD u Trampovom mandatu do sada nisu pokrenule masovni rat, ali nisu se bas pokazale ni sposobnom - fijasko u Jemenu, wtf guranje MBSa, totalni fijasko u Venecueli (a to sam detaljno pratio). Induktivno, nema razloga da se veruje da je ovo ubistvo neki do jaja strateski potez.
Budja Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) Nije ni cudo sto ce Trampara da pobedi, americka opozicija je na nivou Vucicpederizma, apsolutno nesposobna da promislja bilo sta van konteksta psiholoskog profila narandzastog. Sa Burundija, ne znam ko je autor, deluje kao neki pokusaj opravdavanja atentata: Quote https://twitter.com/RymMomtaz/status/1213045597223165952 Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz 1/ Why did Iran militarily escalate in the Gulf lately? Shooting down a US drone, seizing tankers, bombing Saudi oil infrastructure? It wanted to internationalise the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is where most of the world's shipping transits. The US chose not to go there. Преведи твит 11:33 пре подне · 3. јан 2020.·Twitter Web App 321 ретвит 479 Свиђања Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч Одговор за @RymMomtaz 2/ US also held its own line: a US person killed meant retaliation. It targeted the militia that did the attack. It was reciprocal, but also punitive to send a message. Iran-backed militia escalated against US embassy. US managed the attack, didn't blow everything up. #Soleimani Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 3/ US responded to embassy attack, and many lower level attacks by Iranian-backed militias in run-up, by killing, in Iraq, the head of all Iranian-backed anything #Soleimani. US may have just restored some escalation dominance. Whether it's part of cogent strategy is different Qu Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 4/ Real US reckless action or declaration of war wld have been attacking Iranian soil. This admin determined that the cost of tolerating Soleimani alive had now exceeded the benefits of not killing him. We must wait and see whether that was the right call, no one knows today. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 5/ The most important part of Soleimani's killing, isn't his killing (as big as that is), it is the deep US intelligence penetration around Iran's most important military leader that it revealed. Signals and human intel. This is what is going to spook the Iranian camp the longest Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 6/ Why did US claim the #Soleimani kill, instead of following the Israeli ambiguity playbook? US and Israel have different roles and capacities. The US is the mightiest military power around, owning attacks cld be part of deterrence, showing force, restoring escalation dominance Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 7/ What happens next: let's be clear, no one knows for sure, even those who will decide some of the next steps. The Iranian regime is not suicidal, it is strategic, calculating (even if it miscalculates sometimes), so likelihood of an all-out direct US-Iran war is low. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 8/ Khamenei promised response, it must be strong enough to save face internally, for a regime already strained + facing popular dissent, and also be calibrated to avoid provoking a US response inside Iran. Iran response will show whether deterrence restored #Soleimani Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 9/ The myth of invincibility that Iran built around Soleimani was a huge recruitment tool, it may also now turn out to be a double-edged sword. How does its most valiant warrior, its most effective US challenger, get picked off so precisely by the US? Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 10/ Concern for US military, diplo personnel, and citizens, in the region is legit. But allowing it to dictate policy plays into Iran's hands which weaponises Western sensitivity to human loss, and war weariness, to further destabilise the region unchecked. #Soleimani Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 1 ч 11/ There are many so-called anti-imperialists who always criticise Western intervention but justify Iranian/Russian intervention. Iran is not a legit actor in Iraq/Syria/Leb/Yemen. Its crimes there are no less reprehensible than those by the US or colonialists. #Soleimani Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @RymMomtaz · 40 м 12/ Iran is set to announce its next violations of the JCPOA in next few days. That's another thing to look out for, other than a military retaliation, in wake of today's #Soleimani kill. Will it escalate to the point of affecting break-out time or not? Edited January 3, 2020 by Budja
Weenie Pooh Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) Šta je šah-mat, strateški mag Donald J. Trump otkriva Obaminu zaveru da objavi rat Iranu pred izbore 2012 i tako skrene pažnju sa #krštenicagejta? Taman, koliko je on bio u pravu tada toliko si ti u pravu sada. A u stvarnom svetu koji se ne vrti oko impeachmenta, rat sa Iranom je američki long-term goal, nikako gimmick za ovu ili onu predizbornu kampanju. @3opge Edited January 3, 2020 by Weenie Pooh
theanswer Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) Opet kažem, trampove brojke nisu išle dole od impičmenta, njemu impičment savršeno prija, nije ubio Solejmanija zato što je to neki plan nego zato što je jebeni debil i poslušnik onih koji zagovaraju rat odavno. Lepo je što neki očekuju da neće biti sranja kao da imamo presedan neki u skorijoj prošlosti da je osoba ovakvog ranga ubijena, izvršen faktički atentat na nju Evo vidim online je već sad priča kako Teheran nema muda, kako saopštenje njihovog visokog saveta nije dovoljno dobro, valjda su očekivali da će da podignu svoje f14 koje valjda jedino još oni koriste i da bombarduju Jerusalim jutros. Ja da sam Kim Džong Un nazvao bih Trampa jutros i pitao ga dal da testiramo rakete noćas još ili ćete da nam ukinete sankcije. Edited January 3, 2020 by theanswer
mlatko Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 Bush jr. nije bio gluplji kad s(u mu)e Irak namesti(l)oInviato dal mio Mi 9 Lite utilizzando Tapatalk
3opge Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, Weenie Pooh said: Šta je šah-mat, strateški mag Donald J. Trump otkriva Obaminu zaveru da objavi rat Iranu pred izbore 2012 i tako skrene pažnju sa #krštenicagejta? Taman, koliko je on bio u pravu tada toliko si ti u pravu sada. A u stvarnom svetu koji se ne vrti oko impeachmenta, rat sa Iranom je američki long-term goal, nikako gimmick za ovu ili onu predizbornu kampanju. @3opge kako da ne, sve cinjenice govore upravo suprotno ali znajuci da si ti ovde uporno tvrdio kako nije bilo ama bas nikakvog ruskog mesanja u izbore ne cudi me ni ovo sada.
Gandalf Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Budja said: Ostaje da se uzdamo da ako je jedna strana u sukobu pametna, da to valjda smanjuje mogucnost haosa. jedan od faktora u ovoj eskalaciji je to da Iranci nekažnjeno prave sranja evo već čitavu deceniju. Irak, Sirija, Jemen, tankeri, saudijska postrojenja... američki odgovor je bio maltene isključivo u sankcijama. Iranci su valjda utripovali da im konstantno kurčenje neće štetiti, ali su se zahebali kada je u raketnom napadu nastradao nekakav Amer + budalasti napad na američku ambasadu? pitanje je da li će ih likvidacija Sulejmanija "naučiti" da ne valja preterivati u čačkanju mečke. Tramp o svemu tome naravno ne zna ništa, ali psihološki profil je bitan kada mu DoS & DoD ponude tri opcije pa on bira. Edited January 3, 2020 by Gandalf
Budja Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Gandalf said: jedan od faktora u ovoj eskalaciji je to da Iranci nekažnjeno prave sranja evo već čitavu deceniju. Irak, Sirija, Jemen, tankeri, saudijska postrojenja... američki odgovor je bio maltene isključivo u sankcijama. Iranci su valjda utripovali da im konstantno kurčenje neće štetiti, ali su se zahebali kada je u raketnom napadu nastradao nekakav Amer + budalasti napad na američku ambasadu? pitanje je da li će ih likvidacija Sulejmanija "naučiti" da ne valja preterivati u čačkanju mečke. Dobro, ako ti tako kazes. Mada jeste smesno ovo o nekaznjenoj eskalaciji i cackanju mecke.
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