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Iran: novi front

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1 minute ago, Rudolf Pingvinoglu said:

Zašto su ovi veliki američki nosači aviona toliko daleko od akcije? Da li Iranci još uvek imaju čime to da gađaju, pa se ovi sklonili za svaki slučaj?

Ma sklonili se da ne zagadjuju Hormuz sa onim svojim zapusenim klonjama happy

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24 minutes ago, radisa said:

Šta mu bi? Sipali mu neku drogu u piće, sigurno...

kritika na račun Trampa. drugačije bi da su ga pitali za Izrael.

Prorežimski izraelski novinar o minama u Ormuskom moreuzu (nema mnogo toga novog, ali zgodna rekapitulacija za one koji nisu detaljno pratili):

So why is it actually so difficult for the Americans to eliminate the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz? After all, we’ve heard that they already sank Iran’s entire navy.

The answer is that in order to disrupt global commercial shipping, one does not need to defeat the opponent in the naval arena - not even close. It is enough to create a minimal threat, but one significant enough to spike marine insurance costs and deter shipping companies from using a specific route simply because it is no longer profitable.

Therefore, the Iranians don't need to defeat the U.S. Navy, which is infinitely stronger than theirs. It is sufficient for them to maintain a baseline level of threat using anti-ship coastal missiles, land-launched UAVs (drones), and naval mines (which we will elaborate on shortly) - and shipping through Hormuz becomes economically non-viable.

From a purely military standpoint, it is possible that 9 out of 10 oil tankers - or even more - would pass through safely. However, the one that gets hit makes the entire enterprise unprofitable. Consequently, there is a need for "total victory" in the strait and along the coastal strips surrounding it - a far more complex objective that takes much longer to achieve.

In fact, this is exactly what happened with the Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - a vital shipping route on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. The U.S. and the international coalition managed to intercept approximately 95% of the threats, yet the remaining 5% were enough to make the world’s largest shipping companies, such as MSC and Maersk, prefer the much longer route around Africa rather than entering the Red Sea and sailing through the Suez Canal.

Special emphasis regarding Hormuz and Iranian capabilities must be placed on the issue of naval mines. These are extremely difficult to detect and clear, yet very easy to deploy. The U.S. can destroy the entire Iranian navy - and it has done so - but naval mines can be sown even from small, fast "civilian" boats or even fishing vessels. Iran has an abundance of these.

Ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and oil will continue to flow through it, but this will require sisyphean work to clear the area by sea and by land. Until then, the Iranians will continue to leverage this tool - not only because the Americans are highly sensitive to oil prices, but primarily because it is the last significant lever remaining in the hands of the regime.

https://x.com/Tamir114/status/2033515927040368776

I o dosadašnjem toku rata - tvrdi da iranski režim verovatno pada na srednji rok (za 2-3 godine), a možda i pre:

Even if the war were to end today, this very moment, the achievements of Israel and the U.S. against Iran are nothing short of astounding.

However, the war is far from over. Contrary to the baseless forecasts of left-wing commentators, predictions that were mere wishful thinking disguised as analysis, Trump continues to deploy more and more forces to the region. Together with Israel, he is striking Iran in ways no one in Tehran dared to imagine.

Nevertheless, let us pause for a moment to count the achievements already secured.

- The Iranian leadership, both military and civilian, has been largely eliminated and currently relies on replacements, often the replacements of replacements.

- Thousands of IRGC and Basij operatives have been killed, and many thousands more have been wounded.

- Basij members are hiding in tunnels under Tehran’s main roads after dozens of their checkpoints were destroyed by IDF drones. They can no longer move safely through the Iranian capital.

- The first instances of refusal to follow orders are being recorded within the Iranian security forces, particularly in the ballistic missile array, where personnel fear leaving their hideouts to conduct launches.

- Iran's military industries have been effectively destroyed. Even if the regime survives, it will not be able to resume the production of ballistic missiles and drones. Should it attempt to rebuild its capabilities, any such effort could be easily nipped in the bud.

- The remnants of the Iranian nuclear program have suffered additional blows, pushing the project even further back. Iran's effort to move its enrichment infrastructure, which currently does not exist, to an impenetrable depth of about 200 meters underground has been halted.

- The Iranian ballistic missile launch capability has decreased by more than 90 percent, and its drone launch capability has dropped by approximately 95 percent.

- The Iranian Navy has been effectively decimated, with more than 60 ships and vessels sunk or put out of commission.

The number of casualties for Israel and the U.S., despite the pain involved, is minimal and barely reaches a few dozen, more than two weeks into the war.

- The Iranian economy has become a hostage of the Americans. President Trump has "taken captive" Kharg Island and the Iranian oil industry, holding a sword to its throat.

- Yet the most significant achievement is that the regime has been struck and weakened to such an extent that it most likely will not survive in the medium term, two to three years from now. It may even fall in the near term.

Even if it does not, it will never return to its former strength or its ability to threaten Israel, the region, and the world. Its capacity to maintain its terror proxies across the Middle East, including Hezbollah and Hamas, has been broken.

Those who insist on seeing the bad in everything will continue to inflate the significance of every missile the Iranians manage to launch, prattle on about an exit strategy, and fuel the narrative of failure as much as they can. Let them. Reality and history have already left them behind.

https://x.com/Tamir114/status/2032927479220822219

Edited by vememah

On 12. 3. 2026. at 12:15, porucnik vasic said:

Чак и да си у праву за Сакса, како си ничим изазван повезао Постола са њим?

kačio neko Saksa na ovoj temi. paralela sa Saksom mi pade na pamet jer su (po meni) stručni i jedan i drugi, ali tu stručnost bace u vodu kada se raspoložive informacije kose sa ideološkim (i/ili finansijskim?) interesima.

Jel' moze neko za nas sa jeftinijim ulaznicama da kaze gde su to i u cemu pogresili drugovi Saks i Postol...da ne gledamo jedno milion videa...koje su to tvrdnje neistinite i ideoloski obojene...?

1 hour ago, Emerald said:

ode hodza kod brata rusa na lecenje. ima da svetli u mraku kad se vrati.

confirms the ownership, cargo and vessel are not US, or belongs to those that Iran has permitted transit to.

The ships that have passed are 3 bulk carrier (2 Greek / 1 Indian) and one aframax tanker (Pakistan).

https://x.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2033578601350881364

Ne znam koliko su tačne ove vesti, ali pojavile su se glasine da Iranci puštaju da nafta prođe ako je transakcija izvršena u Juanima...sumnjam da je istina ali eto, i to se koristi kao deo propagande.

Masoud Pezeshkian @drpezeshkian

In my conversation with the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, I emphasized that Iran did not begin this atrocious war. Defending against invasion is a natural right, in which we are good at.

Using the American bases against Iran in the region, with the purpose of disturbing our relations with our neighbors, should be stopped.

Peace and stability in the region, cannot be achieved while disregarding the Zionist-American invasion in our country. The Islamic Republic of Iran will not surrender to bullies.

We expect the global community to condemn this invasion and convince invaders to respect international laws.

Commencing a war in order to conquest, based on false information, is a medieval act in 21st century.

Speaking of ending the war, is meaningless, until we ensure there will be no more attacks in our land in the future.

https://x.com/drpezeshkian/status/2033594737949560841

Gog8U2U.jpeg

3 hours ago, x500 said:

Sta je bio plan za Ukrajinu?

Mani me sa ovim spinovima. Otkrivas mi toplu vodu oko USA ratova i licemerja zapada? Nadji drugog nekog za te decije pricice.

Jasno sam napisao sta mislim o USA "planu" za ovaj najnoviji usrani rat. Kao sto sam pre mesec dana jasno napisao sta mislim o vesanju i snajperisanju sopstvene dece po ulicama Irana.

Još jedan požar, sada na naftnom polju Šah u Emiratima, izazvan iranskim dronom.

Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones

The Bypass Fails: UAE Slashes Oil Production by 50% as Fujairah Shuts Down

Another turning point in the global oil disruption is unfolding in the United Arab Emirates, where one of the region's largest oil producers is curtailing output amid the continued closure of Hormuz

The state-owned energy major, ADNOC, is shutting in more than 50% of the country’s oil production, as it is currently unable to use the Strait of Hormuz to reach its primary export markets in Asia.

The crisis, however, is expected to worsen in the coming days. As of this morning, reports confirm that the only major terminal available to ADNOC to bypass the Strait of Hormuz—the Fujairah terminal—has suspended all operations. The terminal, situated strategically at the terminus of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), also known as the Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline, is the only major piece of UAE infrastructure designed to circumvent a closure of the Strait. This morning, a drone attack caused a major fire in the petroleum industrial zone; consequently, authorities issued a halt to all operations. This follows a previous stoppage this past Saturday. The UAE is the third-largest OPEC oil producer. Its curtailment of supplies comes after OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, had already limited output by more than 70% due to similar strategic limitations and direct attacks on its infrastructure. The situation in the oil and gas markets is clearly deteriorating. Unless a solution for Hormuz is found in the short term, the shockwave of these production curtailments will reach every corner of the global energy market.

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https://x.com/Frank_Stones/status/2033561506340647402

Edited by vememah

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