Avionski udesi i nesreće

[Spirit]

Od svih neverovatnih scenarija, ne znam koji je neverovatniji. Ali ovaj poslednji razbija

 

U drugim vestima:

 

The person in control of missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 issued their last communication to air traffic control after the first set of aircraft communications was disabled, Malaysian authorities have confirmed, adding further weight to suspicion that the plane was hijacked. The Guardian

 

Edited March 16, 2014 by Spirit

[Skyhighatrist]

 

Uz pomoć “okvira šifri” koje su napravili sajber teroristi moglo bi se ući u sistem aviona i premostiti bezbednosni softver.

 

 

A framework of 'codes' created by cyber terrorists would also be able to get into the plane's in-flight entertainment system and override the security software.

 

[wall]

Do tog dela nisam ni stigao.

[Agni]

My 2 cents...

Da je nestao po danu pomislio bih na 9/11 style otmicu.

 

Malo verovatno u svakom slucaju, posto:

 

Jebiga, tu nema ni jednog ajeroporta koji je stateless ili lawless.

[Roger Sanchez]

Od svih neverovatnih scenarija, ne znam koji je neverovatniji. Ali ovaj poslednji razbija

 

U drugim vestima:

 

To ustvari dokazuje da ga je hajđeknuo pilot, jer ako usred tog silnog tipkanja nije moga squawknuti 7500...

 

Inače, adding insult to mis(t)ery, koliko sam pročitao isključivanje transpondera, a ACARSa još više je tako kompliciran postupak da ga pilot nije mogao provesti bez da to primjeti kopilot, a bogme i ostatak cabin crewa. Ili su svi bili in on it, ili su svi nekako onesposobljeni..

Jbg, ovo sve više liči na..

[Prospero]

da prenesem 1 finu rekapitulaciju znanog i neznanog o mh370 sa airliners-a:
 

First a synopsis

• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
• These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
• Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
• Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
• Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.


ACARS

• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
• The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
• "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
• No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
• OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?


ACARS data from MH370

• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
• Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
• The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.


SATCOM

• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.


SATCOM Pings

• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.


CRV/FDR Data

• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.


Way-point Tracks

• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.


Airworthiness Directive

• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna


Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.

• There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
• There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.


Aircraft Fuel State

• It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.


Search Areas (including those that have be halted)

• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.


Mobile phones

• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.


Conspiracy Theories

• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
• Some of the more prevalent.
• The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
• Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
• There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
• The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).


Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).

• The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
• The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
• To address the data on a few of these:
• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
• 2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
• 3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor


IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)

• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.


What seems likely.

• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1

[Indy]

Beowle, evo nesto konkretnije u prilog otmice.

 

 

The person in control of missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 issued their last communication to air traffic control after the first set of aircraft communications was disabled, Malaysian authorities have confirmed, adding further weight to suspicion that the plane was hijacked.

 

The latest revelation suggests that the person who delivered the "All right, good night" message to Kuala Lumpur air traffic controllers just before the Boeing-777 disappeared from their radar at 1.22am and diverted from its scheduled flightpath to Beijing was also aware that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (Acars) had been manually shut down.

[Prospero]

Ocean Off Perth Called Diverted Malaysian Plane's Most Likely Last Position

By Alan Levin, Manirajan Ramasamy and Andrew Davis Mar 16, 2014 6:33 AM GMT+0100 

 

The weeklong search for a missing passenger jet shifted toward the Indian Ocean as Malaysia’s prime minister agreed with investigators that the aircraft was intentionally diverted.

 

Satellite transmissions that weren’t turned off along with other systems showed Malaysian Airline Flight 370 operated for almost seven hours after last making contact with air traffic controllers on March 8, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said yesterday. That may have taken the Boeing Co. 777-200 near the limits of its fuel load if it was airborne the whole period.

 

The movements of the plane, which veered off its Kuala Lumpur-to-Beijing course and flew back across the Malaysian peninsula before disappearing, were “consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane,” Najib said.

 

“In view of this latest development, the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board,” he said.

 

Police searched the home of Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, the captain of the flight, shortly after Najib spoke, Reuters reported.

 

Satellite transmission data analyzed by U.S. investigators showed that the Malaysian Airline (MAS) System Bhd. jetliner’s most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) west of Perth, Australia, said two people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings. Najib was told that is the most promising lead on locating the plane, one of the people said.

 

...

 

edit:

 

[Muwan]

Ti isti people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings su koliko pre pet dana tvrdili da je poslednja poznata pozicija u Andamanskom moru. Medijima bi trebalo dekretom zabraniti da izveštavaju o ovom slučaju.

[wall]

Ovih 1000 milja od Perta se pre par dana već spominjalo... Da li je isti izveštaj ili...

[namenski]

Eurasia.

Air Traffic Routes.

 

[Indy]

[Muwan]

Beowle, evo nesto konkretnije u prilog otmice.

 

Sad ću da iščitam ali nije mi baš najjasnije kako su to zaključili. U trenutku te pozdravne poruke transponder je još uvek radio, dakle misli se na ACARS sistem koji je poslednji paket podataka poslao u 1:07. Ali ACARS, kao što smo već prežvakali, ne komunicira konstantno već samo u slučaju problematičnih očitavanja (kojih nije bilo) a mimo toga periodično šalje pakete podataka (navodno na svakih pola sata mada učestanost ovih komunikacija može da se podešava po želji korisnika). Ovo mi deluje kao da imaju uhvaćen neki prazan ping sa satcom antene u periodu između 1:07 i 1:22 pa su na osnovu toga zaključili da je neko pre pozdravne poruke isključio ACARS.

[Dionysos]

 има и оних који се не слажу

 

[Muwan]

Ovo stvarno postaje degutantno. Neko mora da izađe i kaže šta je zvaničan fokus istrage a šta su puke medijske špekulacije. Od ovih nebrojenih izvora™ bliskih™ istrazi je potpuno nemoguće pratiti šta se dešava.

 

 

MAS Airlines flight MH370 dropped to an altitude of 5,000 feet, or possibly lower, to defeat commercial (secondary) radar coverage after it turned back from its Kuala Lumpur-Beijing route on March 8.

Investigators are poring over the Boeing 777-200ER’s flight profile to determine if it had flown low and used “terrain masking” during most of the eight hours it was missing from the radar coverage of possibly at least three countries.

Top officials, who make up the technical team that had been holed up from morning till late at night here, are looking at the possibility that the jetliner, carrying 239 people, had taken advantage of the busy airways over the Bay of Bengal. By sticking to commercial routes, the flight may not have raised the suspicion of those manning primary (military) radars of the nations it overflew. To them, MH370 would appear to be just another commercial aircraft on its way to its destination.

“The person who had control over the aircraft has a solid knowledge of avionics and navigation, and left a clean track. It passed low over Kelantan, that was true,” said officials.

“It’s possible that the aircraft had hugged the terrain in some areas, that are mountainous to avoid radar detection.”

 

Boldovano je ono o čemu smo pričali na prethodnim stranama. Ja stvarno ne znam da li je ovako nešto moguće izvesti i da li vojska zaista ne bere brigu ko joj se šeta po civilnim koridorima ali informacije koje odande stižu direktno upućuju da se o tome radi.