Svet

[Kampokei]

Mozda mozda katalonske stranke budu spanski MOST. Imaju 9+8, dovoljno da podrze manjinsku vladu, dal levu, dal desnu (ovo drugo mi se pak cini nemogucim). Opet, iz spanske perspektive to je pakt sa djavolom, jer svih 17 mandata su separatisti i dogovori sa onim koji vrlo uskoro kane sprovesti referendum o nezavisnosti moze da ima pogubne srednjerocne i dugorocno posledice za velike stranke. 

[vememah]

Izgled parlamenta, u međuvremenu izbrojano još 3% bez promene rezultata.

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by vememah

[MayDay]

U ovo je bas uzbudljivo.

[Jozef K.]

Iglesias na tve

Edit : prekide prenos tve. Inače je 121-92-69-40. Neće biti lake matematike

Poslao tapatalk

Edited December 20, 2015 by Jozef K.

[vememah]

PP izgleda uzima apsolutnu većinu u Senatu (kada su u pitanju 208 mesta koja se direktno biraju), PSOE drugi, ostali zastupljeni simbolično, tj. jednocifreno. Pod uslovom da se ta većina ne izgubi kada se doda 58 imenovanih senatora, to znači da će PP moći prilično da koči poteze nove vlade, npr. ako bi eventualna nova levičarska vlada dogovorila novi ustavni status Katalonije sa tamošnjim separatistima, PP bi to mogao da blokira i u senatu (gde ima većinu) i u kongresu (gde sa Sijudadanosom ima preko 40% poslanika, jer za usvajanje izmena ustava treba većina od 60%).
 

Organic laws, which govern basic civil rights and regional devolutions, need an absolute majority of both congress and senate to pass.

 

The process for constitutional amendments is slightly more tangled: the rule is to require a three fifths (60%) of both houses, but if the senate does not achieve such a supermajority and a mixed congress-senate committee fails to resolve the issues, the congress may force the amendment through with a two-thirds vote as long as an absolute majority of the senate was in favour.

 

On the other hand, the senate has certain exclusive functions in the appointment of constitutional posts, such as judges of the Constitutional Court or the members of the General Council of the Judicial Power.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Spain#Role

 

Sve u svemu, ako se napravi vlada bez PP, imaće dosta muke da efikasno vlada, čak i ako njene članice uspeju da naprave solidan dogovor.

Edited December 20, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Istorijski najgori rezultat PSOE:

 

[vememah]

Lider Sijudadanosa najavljuje da će insistirati na pravednom izbornom zakonu kako bi svim strankama trebao isti broj glasova za poslanika (videti donji rub slike za to koliko su stranke "plaćale" poslanike na ovim izborima). Prebrojano preko 99%, nema promena.

 

 

Po Tviteru se spominje i mogućnost koalicije PSOE, Podemosa i Sijudadanosa.

[ravena]

Izgled parlamenta, u međuvremenu izbrojano još 3% bez promene rezultata.

 

 

Deluje da bi ovde Podemos i PSOE trebalo da zamene mesta. Moze li se znati da li je izgled parlamenta pravljen na osnovu levo - desno podele? 

 

PP izgleda uzima apsolutnu većinu u Senatu (kada su u pitanju 208 mesta koja se direktno biraju), PSOE drugi, ostali zastupljeni simbolično, tj. jednocifreno. Pod uslovom da se ta većina ne izgubi kada se doda 58 imenovanih senatora, to znači da će PP moći prilično da koči poteze nove vlade, npr. ako bi eventualna nova levičarska vlada dogovorila novi ustavni status Katalonije sa tamošnjim separatistima, PP bi to mogao da blokira i u senatu (gde ima većinu) i u kongresu (gde sa Sijudadanosom ima preko 40% poslanika, jer za usvajanje izmena ustava treba većina od 60%).

 

 

Sve u svemu, ako se napravi vlada bez PP, imaće dosta muke da efikasno vlada, čak i ako njene članice uspeju da naprave solidan dogovor.

 

Jos jednom se potvrdjuje da je proporcionalan sistem (Grcka, Svedska) majka haosa, a vecinski (UK, Francuska) reda i stabilnosti. U ovakvoj situaciji bez koalicije PP - PSOE nece moci da se napravi stabilna vlada. 

PP i C's nece sa Podemos. 

U parlamentu, desnica ima 162 (PP 122, C's 40), levica takodje 162 (PSOE 91 + Podemos 69 + UI 2). Ostalo je 26, i jednima i drugima treba minimum 15 za pravljenje vecine.

Ostale partije su:

ERC - leva pro - independence partija iz Katalonije: 9. (jasno je da PP ne dolazi u obzir, PSOE + Podemos moze ako pristanu na odrzavanje referenduma).

DiL - desna secesionisticka koalicija iz Katalonije u kome najvazniju ulogu ima CDC Artura Masa. - 8 slicno kao i za ERC, previse su otisli u secesionisticku pricu da bi mogli da prave vladu sa ideolosko srodnom PP.

Ostalo je nebitno, uglavnom nacionalisti iz Baskije, Kanarskih ostrva. 

 

Opcije su PP + PSOE ili novi izbori. Ne mogu da zamislim kabinet u kome bi bili i C's i Podemos. 

Edited December 20, 2015 by ravena

[vememah]

Deluje da bi ovde Podemos i PSOE trebalo da zamene mesta. Moze li se znati da li je izgled parlamenta pravljen na osnovu levo - desno podele?

Izgleda da su u uglove stavili "stožerne" stranke, što bi Hrvati rekli.

 

Jos jednom se potvrdjuje da je proporcionalan sistem (Grcka, Svedska) majka haosa, a vecinski (UK, Francuska) reda i stabilnosti. U ovakvoj situaciji bez koalicije PP - PSOE nece moci da se napravi stabilna vlada.

 

Teško da Socijalisti smeju u vladu sa Narodnjacima kao manji partner dok im Podemos diše za vratom.

 

U parlamentu, desnica ima 162 (PP 122, C's 40), levica takodje 162 (PSOE 91 + Podemos 69 + UI 2).

 

Sad je 163 prema 161, PP je ojačao na 123, a PSOE oslabio na 90.

 

Redosled poteza:

 

The king will propose a PM-candidate. He or she must win an absolute majority in parliament, or a simple majority within 48 hours after the first vote, in order to form a government. If they fail, the king can propose other candidates. Parliament is dissolved and new elections called if no candidate has the numbers to form a government within two months of the first investiture vote.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/dec/20/spain-election-results-live-updates-podemos-ciudadanos#block-5677294ae4b0badd2cc9a9ac

 

Dakle, premijer se može izabrati i relativnom većinom u parlamentu, a novi izbori se raspisuju ako vlade nema ni nakon dva meseca od prvog glasanja za izbor premijera.

 

Lider Sijudadanosa, koliko sam razumeo, upravo u intervjuu za Antenu 3 pominje da bi njegova stranka mogla da se odgovorno uzdrži od glasanja kako bi bila formirana vlada. Ako se i PSOE uzdrži, Rahoj može vladati sa 123 poslanika uz opasnost da ga smene u bilo kom trenutku. Ako ne, Sijudadanos se može uzdržati pri glasanju za vladu PSOE+Podemos i omogućiti njeno formiranje, mada je on rekao da to ne bi bila dobra vlada, između ostalog jer je Podemos blagonaklon prema katalonskom referendumu.

[Budja]

Trenutno 122-93-69-38, na 87% prebrojanih.

 

Malcice mi je drago da su Ciudadanos prsli, ja toj stranci nekako ne verujem. 

 

A ja Podemos jos manje.

U tom smislu je dobro sto ce biti checks and balances, bez vecine.

 

U principu, u odnosu na exit pollove, Cs 10 manje, Podemos 10 manje, PSOE 10 vise. Pretpostavljam da su exit pollovi promasili jer su se fokusirali na urbane celine. Urbano/ruralno mozda u ranijem dvopartijskom sistemu nije bilo toliko vazno, ali u ovim izborima sa takvim generacijskim razlikama u glasanju to je vazno.

[vememah]

Da dodam da je Rivera iz Sijudadanosa bio izričit da neće podržati ni vladu PP ni vladu PSOE.
 
Pregled izjava sva 4 lidera sortiran po broju mandata, ne hronološki:
 

Rajoy: "I Am Going To Try To Form A Government"
 
Mariano Rajoy thanked party supporters from the balcony of Popular Party headquarters in Madrid for their "enormous spirit" and loyalty during the election campaign: "This party is once more the leading political force in Spain", adding that "we have won the elections again", with more than 7 million votes. He said his government had had to take difficult decisions, but that "I and my government did what we thought was best for the general interest of Spain. That has been our only guide for governing". "Whoever wins the election must try to form a government", he said, adding that "I am going to try to form a government and I believe Spain needs a stable government", with parliamentary support.

PSOE Leader Congratulates Rajoy, Says PP Should Be Allowed To Try To Form Govt
 
PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez thanked the nearly 5.5 million Spaniards who had voted for the Spanish Socialist Party: "they didn't manage" to make the party disappear, he said, adding: "I feel enormously proud to lead the Spanish Socialist Workers Party". He described the PSOE as a "winning" party. "It's true that Spain wants the left, and wants change", but that with their votes Spaniards have shown the most voted for party was on the right. "I congratulate the PP and Mariano Rajoy for being the leading political force". He said the tradition in Spain was to allow the most-voted for party try to form a government. "We have made history, we have made the present, and the future is ours".

Pablo Iglesias Says Podemos Wants Catalan Referendum, Constitutional Reform

Evaluating the general election result, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias said during a press conference that the priority for his party during the upcoming negotiations to form a government was constitutional reform and that the party was in favour of a referendum on the question of Catalan independence. "These results make it clear this is a plurinational country", he said, adding that he thought Podemos was the only national force capable of putting together a new territorial deal for the organisation of Spain.

Ciudadanos Leader Rivera Wants Electoral Reform In Spain "Tomorrow"

 

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera said "a new era of hope" had begun in Spain, and that "finally, 40 men and women" would be able to work for change at the national parliament in Madrid, "not just in Catalonia", where his party was founded. He thanked "all the Spaniards who have voted today". "We have a big job ahead of us", he said, but his party would be able to handle the responsibility. "Those 40 men and women are going to think more about Spain than Ciudadanos". He said his party had come a long way in just a year. He claimed a new political centre for Spain, "for the first time since the Transition […] the political centre in Spain is now called Ciudadanos". He said he would not do deals with "separatists" and that "from tomorrow in Spain, it will be possible to change an unfair electoral law". Mr. Rivera said Ciudadanos would be proposing a new electoral law, "for the 21st Century in Spain".

 

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/535-151220103337-spanish-general-election-2015-election-day

 

Ne deluje mi da bi PSOE rado u koaliciju sa PP kao manji partner.

Edited December 21, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Izgled parlamenta na 99,93%, dakle verovatno konačni rezultat.

 

[Budja]

Cini se da je ovde jedan od faktora dobrog rezultata Podemos.

Nakon kraha na regionalnim izborima, sada su prvi u Kataloniji i Baskiji, dok su Cs, recimo, za ukidanje posebnog poreskog statusa Baskije.

 

 

 

Iglesias says that Catalonia is different and needs to be "fitted differently” into Spain’s constitution ("encaje constitucional diferente")

 

 

 

Iglesias says he wants promises on constitutional reform before backing a government. Insists on “plurinational” Spain. A nod to Catalonia

[Prospero]

Pregled % za zadnje 4 godine

 

[vememah]

 Socijalisti neće s Rahojem.

 

Spain's leading opposition Socialist party Monday said it would vote against acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's candidacy to form a new government, thus killing one of Rajoy's options to stay in power after voters elected a fragmented Parliament.

 

Socialist party official Cesar Luena said Rajoy's Popular Party, which won the most votes, should have the first crack at forming a government but ruled out supporting Rajoy, eliminating the already slim possibility of an unprecedented coalition of the two parties which had dominated Spanish politics for decades.

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SPAIN_ELECTION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-21-06-21-32

Edited December 21, 2015 by vememah