Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Eraserhead]

Mali profa Robert ponovo u sridu.

 

Covek ima fiksaciju republikancima. Obama je na vlasti. Za ovu krizu je odgovoran balon koji se napravio od kineske ekonomije. Milioni stanova koji se grade iz politickih razloga. To je odgovaralo svima, ali sada dolazi na naplatu. Na svu srecu u trenutku kada ostatak sveta kako tako dobro stoji.

 

Nije šija nego vrat :D

 

Ne, nije fizičko štampanje novca, ali i onako u razvijenim ekonomijama fizičke novčanice i novčići čine mali procenat ukupnog novca u opticaju.

 

Laički gledano to jeste ,,štampanje para", evo nek ti kaže Bank of England:

 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/pages/qe/default.aspx

 

 

Pa ima tu jedna vazna razlika koju semantika ne hvata. QE je koriscenje sredstava od strane FEDa da kupi obveznice (US Treasury i MBS). FED koristi rezerve i poveca svoj BS ali taj novac ne ulazi kao dodatni novac u ekonomiju jer FED njime otkupljuje obveznice. Kolicina aseta koji ulaze je jednaka kolicini aseta koji izlaze.  Sustinski FED omogucuje zamenu manje likvidnih sredstava za ona koja su vise likvidna u nadi da ce tako banke plasirati vise. Naravno sada je FEDov BS ogroman i to moze izazvati druge probleme, ali mislim da je razlika izmedju stampanja(kreiranja) novca i QE znacajna.

[Budja]

Covek ima fiksaciju republikancima. Obama je na vlasti. Za ovu krizu je odgovoran balon koji se napravio od kineske ekonomije. Milioni stanova koji se grade iz politickih razloga. To je odgovaralo svima, ali sada dolazi na naplatu. Na svu srecu u trenutku kada ostatak sveta kako tako dobro stoji.

 

 

 

Pa ima tu jedna vazna razlika koju semantika ne hvata. QE je koriscenje sredstava od strane FEDa da kupi obveznice (US Treasury i MBS). FED koristi rezerve i poveca svoj BS ali taj novac ne ulazi kao dodatni novac u ekonomiju jer FED njime otkupljuje obveznice. Kolicina aseta koji ulaze je jednaka kolicini aseta koji izlaze.  Sustinski FED omogucuje zamenu manje likvidnih sredstava za ona koja su vise likvidna u nadi da ce tako banke plasirati vise. Naravno sada je FEDov BS ogroman i to moze izazvati druge probleme, ali mislim da je razlika izmedju stampanja(kreiranja) novca i QE znacajna.

 

A ko izdaje obveznice? Ne izdaje ih FED sam sebi.

Koja su to manje likvidna sredstva?

 

Gde zavrsava QE?

 

Ne zavrsava u potrosnji vec u papirima od vrednosti. Otuda i rekordni  Dow Jones (iako, doduse, ima debate oko precenjenosti ili ne PE racija). Sto bi se reklo, asset inflation vs consumer price inflation koja se ne dogadja.

 

I da, share bubacks su,  iako nisam detaljno citao, upravo izraz jftinog finansiranja (rkoz niske kamatne stope i QE) pa kompanije iznova povecavaju zaduzenost. Novi dug se koristi za likvidiranje akcija, a ne nove projekte i rast. A posto je dug jeftin, i posto vlasnici akcija dobijaju ziv kes od buybacka koji opet plasiraju u smanjeni pul akcija, eto naduvavanja.

Edited August 25, 2015 by Budja

[hazard]

Pa ima tu jedna vazna razlika koju semantika ne hvata. QE je koriscenje sredstava od strane FEDa da kupi obveznice (US Treasury i MBS). FED koristi rezerve i poveca svoj BS ali taj novac ne ulazi kao dodatni novac u ekonomiju jer FED njime otkupljuje obveznice. Kolicina aseta koji ulaze je jednaka kolicini aseta koji izlaze.  Sustinski FED omogucuje zamenu manje likvidnih sredstava za ona koja su vise likvidna u nadi da ce tako banke plasirati vise. Naravno sada je FEDov BS ogroman i to moze izazvati druge probleme, ali mislim da je razlika izmedju stampanja(kreiranja) novca i QE znacajna.

 

Ne znam kako možeš da kažeš da QE nije kreiranje novca, kada sama BoE (koja obilato koristi QE od početka krize) kaže da jeste :D 

 

Nije direktno štampanje novca za državnu potrošnju Sloba-style, ali kada na kraju centralna banka sveže kreiranim novcem otkupljuje državne obveznice, indirektno se delom svede na isto (ili direktno ako centralna banka otkupi ,,sveže" obveznice direktno od države). Ovo što sada radi ECB - kupovinu državnih obveznica u neograničenom obimu što bi rekao Dragi - jeste direktno finansiranje država evrozone novostvorenim novcem.* 

[Peter Fan]

Vrlo verovatno nece. Em je oni vade najjeftinije em tako rizikuju da izgube udeo u trzistu. Ja tipujem na Amere i Kanadjane. Tu je ipak proizvodnja najskuplja.

Ima tu i drugih faktora:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/blame-oil-glut-on-investors-who-still-love-drilling-over-profits-idryi3h1

 

For Oil Producers Cash Is King, and That's Why They Just Can't Stop Drilling

 

• Shale producers with growth plans at $40 oil have outperformed

• U.S. crude output rose 19% even after $22 billion in cuts

 

Investors sent a surprising message to U.S. shale producers as crude fell almost 20 percent in August: keep calm and drill on.

While most oil stocks have fallen sharply this month, the least affected by the slump share one thing in common: they don’t plan to slow down, even though a glut of supply is forcing prices down. Cimarex Energy Co. jumped more than 8 percent in two days after executives said Aug. 5 that their rig count would more than double next year. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. rallied for three days when it disclosed a similar increase.

Shareholders continue to favor growth over returns, helping explain why companies that form the engine of U.S. oil -- the frackers behind the boom -- aren’t slowing down enough to rebalance the market. U.S. production has remained high, frustrating OPEC’s strategy of maintaining market share and enlarging a glut that has pushed oil below $40 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $39.58 a barrel, up 27 cents, at 9:29 a.m. London time.

 ---

E sad, koliko je to odrzivo, to je drugo pitanje. Sto bi rekli nasi stari, eventually, the cash flow catches up with everybody.

[Indy]

Covek ima fiksaciju republikancima.

 

Ne štedi on ni Demokrate (osim Bernija, mada ni njega ne može oficijelno da endorsuje).

 

Evo mu najnovijeg videa, pa nek forum vidi da li ima smisla to što priča.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=874573309263634

[noskich]

Bravo Orlov: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/the-financial-industrial-revolutions.html

 

For a long time, as long as new resources and pools of labor could be exploited, all went well for the exploiters (and badly for the exploited). New frontiers were opened up and “developed,” in the New World and elsewhere, usually at the point of a gun, and slaves and indentured servants were brought in to do the labor.

Simultaneously, peasants in the old world, forcibly displaced by enclosures and the modernization of agriculture, were herded into factories as workers. Deprived of their traditional, largely independent and sustainable ways of life, they became wage-laborer consumers who had to buy goods and services at market prices.

It turned out—for a considerable time--that the globe had enough land, minerals, arable soil, fisheries, and forests to support an unprecedented explosion of production. It also turned out—for a considerable time—that the globe had enormous untapped sources of energy—particularly fossil fuels—which magnified productive potential many-fold.

The exploitation of these resources is what we call the industrial revolution.

 

And now it has run its course. The resource limits of a finite planet have finally been reached. There are no new frontiers left. Population has exploded, arable land has been used up, forests have been cut down, fisheries have been depleted, minerals have become scarce, the environment has been degraded and polluted. Investments in the production of fossil fuel energy, which has underpinned economic growth, have finally reached the point of diminishing returns, even as they continue to drive costly and destructive climate change.

In the meantime, the banking system has continued to lend out far more money than there are real assets in the world to back it. Hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt now dwarf the potential of the global economy to ever produce enough to repay it. We are facing another cyclical boom-bust financial crisis, to be sure, but this time it really is different: the potential for recovery and further growth can no longer be presumed to exist. The system has plateaued, for the moment, but having been designed for endless exponential growth, not for a steady state, it is destined to unravel.

Edited September 12, 2015 by noskich

[aram]

There are no new frontiers left.

kakva neopevana budalastina.

Edited September 12, 2015 by aram

[Korki]

Економист о последицама кризе 2008- , како је ФЕД з безизлазној ситуацији а поредак је све нестабилнији

 

Dominant and dangerous

As America’s economic supremacy fades, the primacy of the dollar looks unsustainable

IF HEGEMONS are good for anything, it is for conferring stability on the systems they dominate. For 70 years the dollar has been the superpower of the financial and monetary system. Despite talk of the yuan’s rise, the primacy of the greenback is unchallenged. As a means of payment, a store of value and a reserve asset, nothing can touch it. Yet the dollar’s rule has brittle foundations, and the system it underpins is unstable. Worse, the alternative reserve currencies are flawed. A transition to a more secure order will be devilishly hard.

...

However, in the past decade America’s share of global merchandise imports has dropped from 16% to 13%. America is the biggest export market for only 32 countries, down from 44 in 1994; the figure for China has risen from two to 43. A system in which the Fed dispenses and the world convulses is unstable.

A second problem is the lack of a backstop for the offshore dollar system if it faces a crisis. In 2008-09 the Fed reluctantly came to the rescue, acting as a lender of last resort by offering $1 trillion of dollar liquidity to foreign banks and central banks. The sums involved in a future crisis would be far higher. The offshore dollar world is almost twice as large as it was in 2007. By the 2020s it could be as big as America’s banking industry. Since 2008-09, Congress has grown wary of the Fed’s emergency lending. Come the next crisis, the Fed’s plans to issue vast swaplines might meet regulatory or congressional resistance. For how long will countries be ready to tie their financial systems to America’s fractious and dysfunctional politics?

That question is underscored by a third worry: America increasingly uses its financial clout as a political tool. Policymakers and prosecutors use the dollar payment system to assert control not just over wayward bankers and dodgy football officials, but also errant regimes like Russia and Iran. Rival powers bridle at this vulnerability to American foreign policy.

...

If foreigners continue to accumulate reserves, they will dominate the Treasury market by the 2030s. To satisfy growing foreign demand for safe dollar-denominated assets, America’s government could issue more Treasuries—adding to its debts. Or it could leave foreigners to buy up other securities—but that might lead to asset bubbles, just as in the mortgage boom of the 2000s.

 

Став о Кини, који је по мени делимично тачан

 

As for the yuan, China’s government has created the monetary equivalent of an eight-lane motorway—a vast network of currency swaps with foreign central banks—but there is no one on it. Until China opens its financial markets, the yuan will be only a bit-player.

 

Тачно је да Кинези нису пустили слободно јуан али мислим да на некакав свој чудан начин раде на томе. Проблем је што шанса може да прође и да улете у погрешно време иако су они убеђени у супротно.

Edited October 10, 2015 by Korki

[Lezilebovich]

 

ICELAND Magazine javlja da su ovog mjeseca na Vrhovnom sudu Islanda i okružnom sudu u Reykjavíku izrečene zatvorske kazne trojici menadžera iz banke Landsbankinn i dvojici iz banke Kaupþing, kao i jednom investitoru.

 

Magazin navodi da je s posljednjim presudama zbog svoje uloge u financijskoj krizi i kolapsu bankarskog sektora osuđeno 26 bankara ili investitora na ukupno 76 godina zatvora.

 

Alternativni američki mediji podjednako hvale izvješće i Island, ističući da u Americi nije podignuta niti jedna optužnica protiv bankara zbog financijskih malverzacija koje su svijet odvele u Veliku recesiju.

 

"Mi smo bili dovoljno mudri da ne pratimo tradicionalnu i prevladavajuću ortodoksiju zapadnog financijskog svijeta u posljednjih 30 godina. Mi smo uveli kontrolu valuta, mi smo bankama dopustili da propadnu, mi smo pružili podršku ljudima i nismo uveli mjere štednje kakve vidite u ostatku Europe", rekao je svojedobno islandski predsjednik Olafur Ragnar Grimmson u odgovoru na pitanje kako se Island oporavio od krize.

[Hella]

bogati su novi jevreji

 

da dobro i novi jevreji su bogati ko i stari ali nisam to mislio nego kao ova nesposobna sirotinja se stalno loži na neku pravdu dokle više proganjanje ljudi koji znaju znanje

Edited October 23, 2015 by Hella

[Eraserhead]

[Muwan]

Nemamo topik o svetskoj trgovini pa može i ovde:

 

Corrosion-resistant steel imports from China were sold at unfairly low prices and will be taxed at 256 percent, according to a preliminary finding of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

[Eraserhead]

...

Edited January 8, 2016 by Eraserhead

[Eraserhead]

Kina -1.5 do 2% ponedeljak ujutro. Bice ovo zanimljiva nedelja.

[Muwan]

The 2016 recession club

 

 

Tajvan je takođe u grupi zemalja koje imaju najmanje 50% šansi da zapadnu u recesiju ove godine. Nisam pratio, šta je problem kod njih i u Brazilu?