Ekonomija i Corona virus pandemija

[renne]

ako nije previse licno, možeš li napisati o kojoj se industriji radi

Konditorska, globalna, svetska

[Milošica]

Da li paušalci(koji ne primaju platu) podležu reprogramu poreskih obaveza za ova tri meseca ili samo zaposleni kod njih?

 

Jedan knjigovođa kaže jedno,drugi suprotno.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Milošica

[napadaj]

Podležu, tj. odlaže im se plaćanje obaveza. Pročitaj član 8. stav 1. ove Uredbe.
http://www.pravno-informacioni-sistem.rs/SlGlasnikPortal/eli/rep/sgrs/vlada/uredba/2020/54/2/reg
Предузетницима паушалцима се одлаже доспелост за плаћање обавеза по основу аконтација пореза и доприноса на приход од самосталне делатности за месец март, април и мај 2020. године за 4. јануар 2021. године и одлаже плаћање ових обавеза на 24 једнаке месечне рате, без плаћања камате, за време трајања одлагања плаћања дугованог пореза.

____________________

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-economic-worse-lockdown-social-distancing.html

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing, study finds

The worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

 

There is much debate over the economic costs of our lockdown lives: whether the price of disease mitigation is worth the risk of an enduring financial crisis.

 

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health—and that the economic price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a "structured lockdown."

 

A Cambridge economist, together with researchers at the US Federal Reserve Board, has combined macroeconomics with aspects of epidemiology to develop a model for the economic consequences of social distancing.

 

The study uses US economic and population data, but the researchers say their findings have implications for most developed economies.

 

It divides the working population into "core workers"—those in healthcare as well as food and transportation, sanitation and energy supply, among others—and then everyone else, and models the spread of the virus if no action is taken.

 

"Without public health restrictions, the random spread of the disease will inevitably hit sectors and industries that are essential for the economy to run," said co-author Prof Giancarlo Corsetti, from Cambridge's Faculty of Economics.

 

"Labour shortfalls among core workers in particular strip more value from the economy. As essential team members within this core sector drop out of the workforce, it impairs production far more than losing those in other areas of the economy."

 

By separating the core and non-core workers, the study suggests that the economy would shrink by 30% or more without lockdown and social distancing. "By ignoring this division in the workforce, we may badly underestimate the true depth of economic damage," Corsetti said.

 

Using data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the researchers then quantified the share of workers who could "reasonably keep performing occupational tasks at home": 15% of those in core sectors, and 40% of everyone else currently working—along with 30% of all non-working age people, from children to the retired. This puts a third of the entire population on lockdown.

 

In this scenario, the infection curve is smoothed out through social distancing, and the rate of loss in economic output is around 15%, just half the level of damage if no action is taken to prevent disease spread.

 

Sickness rates for core workers would be the same as the rest of the population, the high levels of social distancing elsewhere act as a shield.

 

"This overarching policy flattens the curve," said Corsetti. "The peak of the infected share of the population drops from 40% to about 15%. However, this is still far too high given the capacities of healthcare systems."

 

So the researchers also modelled a scenario where infection rates are kept to a manageable level for healthcare services of under 1.5% of the population for 18 months—the length of time many believe it will take for a vaccine to arrive.

 

This would mean lockdown shares of 25% of core workers, 60% of workers outside of core, and 47% of non-working age people. Under this scenario, the economy contracts by 20%.

 

The study also looked at a very strict lockdown—40% of core workers and 90% each of non-working age and everyone else—that lasts for just three months. Such a scenario simply delays the infection rates but prevents "herd immunity," creating an economic drop comparable to that of taking no action in the first place.

 

"As well as containing the loss of life, committing to long-term social distancing structured to keep core workers active can significantly smooth the economic costs of the disease," said Corsetti.

 

"The more we can target lockdown policies toward sections of the population who are not active in the labour market, or who work outside of the core sector, the greater the benefit to the economy," he said.

 

"What seems clear to us is that taking no action is unacceptable from public health perspective, and extremely risky from an economic perspective."

 

However, Corsetti and colleagues caution that the lingering uncertainties around just how the coronavirus spreads means their scenarios are not forecasts, but should be taken as a "blueprint" for further analysis.

[Frank Pembleton]

Gledao na N1 intervju sa onim Seničićem iz YUTA.
I priča on oko povraćaja novca ljudima koji su npr. u decembru platili "first minute"...
Ukratko, od vraćanja para...
Pare su već uplaćene hotelijerima, a npr. Grčka vlada je donela odluku da oni nisu dužni da vrate pare.
Osiguravajuća društva ne pokrivaju ovaj slučaj.
Biće neki vaučeri za "buduće aranžmane"...



... Shiit has hit the fan...

[Skyhighatrist]

 

[napadaj]

Srbin viljuškom boc

[gospa buba]

onda nema problema za 100 evara? ili je to neka slozenija ekonomija

[Filozof manijak]

Opet smo pobedili 5:0?

[vememah]

Quote

 

Russia Halts Wheat Exports, Deepening Fears of Global Food Shortages

 

For the first time in a decade, the world risks being cut off from Russian wheat at a time when some key buyers are rushing to import it.

The top shipper last month limited sales through June to protect its own supply as the coronavirus crisis sparks food-security concerns around the world. Although the curbs were seen loose enough to ensure normal trade flows for this time of year, Russia has already burned through the entire quota. It will halt grain shipments to all but four former Soviet neighbors once the last cargo booked under the limits leaves the country.

While the ban will only last until farmers start harvesting in July, some other nearby nations have also restricted grain exports, threatening to reroute global trade and fueling worries about food shortages and higher prices. Countries from Egypt to Turkey are trying to load up on imports while they still can, and Russian shippers have been feeding that demand.

There has been “a flurry of activity” recently, said Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director at consultant SovEcon in Moscow. “Buyers want to stock up because they realize they may not have the chance to do it later.”

The window has closed fast. In just a few weeks, shippers booked out all of the 7 million-ton quota set through June. As well as strong demand from importers, a weak ruble is keeping Russian grain attractive. Also, sales from government stockpiles — another measure intended to safeguard domestic supplies — have helped contain local prices and keep exports competitive.

The Agriculture Ministry on Sunday didn’t specify when the last cargo booked under the quota could leave.

One reason the limit was reached so quickly was because shippers rushed to get customs paperwork for future cargoes, according to Dmitry Rylko, director general at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. That means about 3 million tons could still be exported in the next two months, Reuters reported him as saying.
...

 

https://time.com/5827804/russia-wheat-food-shortage/

[Frank Pembleton]

Jel ovaj "aranžman" koji su firme sklopile sa Vladom oko prijavljivanja za pomoć ostaje i završetkom vanrednog stanja ili se nastavlja i traje ta tri meseca?



... Shiit has hit the fan...

[renne]

sad će mali na ptc sve da objasni

[*edited by mod]

Da li ostaje pauza za naplatu rata za kredite do isteka onih 90 dana ili se ukida kad i vanredno stranje?

Sent from my H3213 using Tapatalk

[renne]

Ostaje

[vememah]

Srbiju čeka veliki pad, tvrde svi sem Vučića

Vlasti Republike Srbije izgleda da nikako naiđu na razumevanje međunarodnih institucija kada se radi o procenama privrednog rasta u 2020. godini.

Piše: M. Obradović
07. maja 2020. 13.00

Naime, poslednjih dana čuli smo od direktora Zavoda za statistiku Miladina Kovačevića da bi ovu godinu mogli završiti na nuli, dok je predsednik Srbije Aleksandar Vučić ocenio da nas očekuje ne pad, već privredni rast od jedan odsto po čemu bismo verovatno bili jedinstveni u Evropi.

Juče je Evropska komisija objavila svoje prolećne ekonomske projekcije za evropske zemlje prema kojima se Srbija nalazi među zemljama koje će najmanje biti pogođene krizom.

Međutim, to prema stručnjacima Evropske komisije znači pad od 4,1 odsto. Juče su svoje prognoze objavili i stručnjaci Bečkog instituta za međunarodne ekonomske studije koji se bave regionom Centralne i Istočne Evrope prema kojima ćemo izgubiti četiri odsto BDP-a ove godine.

Nešto ranije, u aprilskom izveštaju o Svetskim ekonomskim izgledima MMF je procenio naš pad na tri odsto.

Ričard Griveson, saradnik Bečkog instituta za međunarodne ekonomske studije, kaže da je veoma malo verovatno da će bilo koja evropska ekonomija izbeći recesiju ove godine.

„U ovim tmurnim ekonomskim izgledima ipak šanse Srbije izgledaju mnogo bolje od većine njenih suseda“, kaže Griveson za Danas.

Vladimir Gligorov, saradnik ovog instituta, to objašnjava činjenicom da neke od regionalnih ekonomija imaju veliki turistički izvoz, a poseta će biti desetkovana ove godine.

„Neke imaju industriju koja je integrisana u EU, a pad industrijske proizvodnje je značajan. U Srbiji je za to primer Fijat. Konačno, udeo poljoprivrede u ukupnoj proizvodnji je u Srbiji veći nego u susedstvu, a ona bi trebalo da trpi manje posledice. Uz to, manji izvoz bi trebalo da ide zajedno sa manjim uvozom, tako da neto izvoz ne bi trebalo da ima negativan uticaj na BDP, što opet nije slučaj u turističkim zemljama. Manje je jasno kako stoji stvar sa uslugama, koje imaju značajan udeo u ukupnoj proizvodnji i u Srbiji. I sa građevinarstvom koje je uticalo značajno na rast u prošloj godini. Verujem da se tu računa sa bržim izlaskom iz karantina“, ističe Gligorov uz napomenu da je ovo razlog što se ne predviđa pad proizvodnje u drugom kvartalu, što bi bio izuzetak u odnosu na druge zemlje.

„Ukoliko bi u drugom kvartalu rast bio negativan, što mislim da bi bilo u skladu sa činjenicama koje su nam poznate, onda bi prognoze o nultoj ili pozitivnoj stopi rasta za celu godinu bile nerealne. Očekivanja, zvanična, za drugu polovinu godine su da će rast biti blago negativan zato što je prošle godine rast u drugoj polovini bio ubrzan. Ovo je dosta neizvesno, kako zato što se ne zna ponašanje epidemije, ne zna se ni kakve će biti vremenske prilike, a konačno nije jasno ni do koje će se mere oporaviti izvoz“, smatra Gligorov i dodaje da se mogu očekivati tri tromesečja sa padom BDP-a, a među njima može biti i prvi kvartal 2021. godine.

Prema njegovim rečima, da bi procene o nultoj stopi rasta bile ostvarene, bilo bi potrebno da vremenske prilike budu pogodne, da se obnovi izvoz i da se oporavi sektor usluga.

„Onda uz dobar prvi kvartal, to bi moglo da kompenzuje relativno nepovoljniju drugu polovinu godine. I, a to je najvažnije, bilo bi potrebno da ovih nekoliko nedelja karantina ne utiče suviše negativno na stopu rasta u drugom kvartalu. I naravno, potrebno je da se ne obnovi epidemija“, zaključuje on dodajući da treba imati u vidu da one zemlje koje će imati ove godine najdublji, pad sledeće godine mogu očekivati najveći rast i obrnuto.

Malo ekonomista želi da komentariše prognoze predstavnika vlasti, uz objašnjenje da se ne raspolaže ni blizu dovoljnim podacima da bi se donosile procene za celu godinu. Čak se i MMF u svojim projekcijama ogradio da su ovo najneizvesnije procene do sada.

Ekonomista Goran Nikolić sa Instituta za evropske studije podseća da je jedini zvanični podatak srpskih vlasti projekcija koja je korišćena prilikom izrade rebalansa budžeta.

„Kada je pre desetak dana pravljen rebalans budžeta, Ministarstvo finansija je koristilo procenu da će BDP pasti 1,8 odsto. I to je donekle optimistična ocena, ali na budžetu rade najbolji ljudi u Ministarstvu finansija i ta procena im je važna kako bi se planirali budžetski prihodi u ovoj godini. Sve ostalo što se govori, ko god da govori je nezvanično“, napominje Nikolić dodajući da prema izveštaju Evropske komisije najbolju prognozu za ovu godinu ima Severna Makedonija sa -3,9 odsto, a zatim Srbija sa padom od 4,1 odsto, mada bi i neke zemlje Zajednice nezavisnih država mogle proći nešto bolje od nas.

Bečki institut ističe u svojoj analizi da se očekuje značajan pad u prilivu kapitala. Prema njihovim procenama u poslednjih pet godine doznake su iznosile osam odsto BDP-a, a strane direktne investicije više od šest odsto BDP-a.

„Oba priliva će verovatno značajno pasti ove godine i moguće da se neće povratiti već sledeće. Međutim, kako kriza bude prolazila može se desiti da Srbija ima korist od želje zapadnoevropskih kompanija da proizvodnju približe matičnom tržištu“, navodi se u izveštaju.

Evropska komisija u svojim prognozama očekuje smanjenje investicija za 13,5 odsto, što će skoro potpuno izbrisati prošlogodišnji rast od 16,4 odsto.

Takođe, na nivou cele godine očekuju da će se izvoz smanjiti za 8,5 odsto, a uvoz za 9,4 odsto, što će uticati čak na smanjenje trgovinskog deficita na 10,1 odsto BDP-a. Nezaposlenost će po njihovoj proceni dostići 12,7 odsto ove godine, a javni dug 62,2 odsto BDP-a.

U sledećoj godini očekuje se značajan oporavak i privredni rast od 6,1 odsto.

https://www.danas.rs/ekonomija/srbiju-ceka-veliki-pad-tvrde-svi-sem-vucica/

[napadaj]

Around 3.2 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims in the week ending May 2, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That brings the total unemployment claims over the past seven weeks to a staggering 33.5 million.

 

Before this seven-week stretch of 33.5 million initial jobless claims, there were already 7.1 million unemployed Americans as of March 13. When those figures are combined, it equals more than 40 million unemployed, or a real unemployment rate of 24.9%. That's higher than the Great Depression peak of an unemployment rate topped 25.6%.

 

On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the April unemployment rate, which a White House advisor thinks could be between 16% to 20%. But this jobless rate will just be through mid-April and will exclude the 7 million jobless claims over the past two weeks. It is not until May that it will likely go above 20%.

 

And the BLS official unemployment rate may remain well under the real unemployment rate through this crisis. Only out-of-work Americans who are searching for new positions are categorized as unemployed. And many Americans are choosing to wait out the virus and stay-at-home order before starting their search.

 

 

 

https://fortune.com/2020/05/07/unemployment-33-million-coronavirus/