Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[InvisibleLight]

u italiji umro i 100. lekar od korone 

[omiljeni]

Bangladeš

112 pozitivnih od 679 testova

poslednjih 5 dana: 18 35 41 54 112

 

[cedo]

Регистрирани 46 нови случаи на Ковид-19

 

Како што дознава Алсат, во последниве 24 часа регистрирани се 46 нови случаи на коронавирус во земјава, со што вкупниот број на заболени од почетокот на епидемијата достигна 663 лица.

 

По градови:

Скопје –12, Куманово – 13, Прилеп – 8, Тетово -1, Струга – 2 , Велес – 8, Кочани – 1, Пробиштип – 1.

Родилката од Куманово која иако почина вчера, евидентирана е во денешната статистика на министерството за здравство. Со тоа вкупниот број на починати од вирусот достигна 31.

Во изминатото деноноќие направени се 341 теста. Од нив преку ИЈЗ-194, преку Ветеринарен факултет –8, Авицена –19 , Биотек –24 и Фипил Втори (Жан Митрев) –96. Досега во земјата се направени 6.571 тестирања на Ковид-19, наведоа од Министерството за здравство.

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 Case Cluster Study (Gangelt municipality)

 

Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute for Virology)
Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Pharmacology, Speaker of the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2)
Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology)

University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, April 9, 2020

Background: The municipality of Gangelt is one of the places in Germany most affected by COVID19 . It is assumed that the infection is due to a carnival session on 15 February 2020, as several people tested positive for SARSCoV2 in the aftermath of this session. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session are currently being investigated in more detail. A representative sample was drawn from the municipality of Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) in the Heinsberg district. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol in which, depending on the expected prevalence, 100 to 300 households are randomly tested. This random sample was coordinated with Prof. Manfred Güllner (Forsa) to ensure its representativeness.

Aim: The aim of the study is to determine the status of SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected persons) in the community of Gangelt, which have been and are still occurring. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2 immunity shall be determined.

Procedure: A serial letter was sent to about 600 households. In total, about 1000 inhabitants from about 400 households participated in the study. Questionnaires were collected, throat swabs taken and blood tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA). The interim results and conclusions of approx. 500 persons are included in this first evaluation.

Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined. About 2% of the persons had a current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by PCR method. The infection rate (current infection or already been through it) was about 15 % in total. The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37 % according to the preliminary data from this study. The lethality rate currently calculated in Germany by Johns-Hopkins University is 1.98 %, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15 %.
 
Preliminary conclusion: The lethality calculated by Johns-Hopkins University is 5 times higher compared to this study in Gangelt and is explained by the different reference size of the infected persons. In Gangelt, this study covers all infected persons in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and mild courses. In Gangelt, the proportion of the population that has already developed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is about 15%. This means that 15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer become infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the process has already begun until herd immunity is achieved. This 15% of the population reduces the speed (net reproduction rate R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of SARS-CoV-2 accordingly.
By adhering to stringent hygiene measures, it is expected that the virus concentration in a person infected can be reduced to a level where the severity of the disease is reduced, while at the same time immunity is developed. These favourable conditions are not given in the case of an exceptional outbreak event (superspreading event, e.g. carnival session, après-ski bar Ischgl). With hygiene measures, favourable effects with regard to total mortality can be expected.

We therefore expressly recommend implementing the proposed four-phase strategy of the German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH). This strategy provides for the following model:

Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containing and slowing down the pandemic and avoiding overloading critical care structures, especially the health care system
Phase 2: Beginning of the withdrawal of quarantine while ensuring hygienic conditions and behaviour.
Phase 3: Revocation of quarantine while maintaining hygienic conditions
Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic (status quo ante).

(Statement of the DGKH can be found here:
https://www.krankenhaushygiene.de/ccUpload/upload/files/2020_03_31_DGKH_Einladug_Lageeinschaetzung.pdf)

Note: These results are preliminary. The final results of the study will be published and presented to the public as soon as they are available.

 

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf (translated by Deepl)

 

KZŠ na nemačkom:

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by vememah

[Lancia]

Sancez najavio da ce najverovatnije traziti da se produzi v.stanje i posle 26.aprila za jos 15 dana. Naporedo se radi studija da leto ove godine bude bez stranih turista.

Sve ovo ocigledno znaci da je broj zarazenih ogroman i da do jeseni nece biti normalnog funkcionisanja u zemlji..

[adam]

 

kad bolje razmislim, jako malo se umire u uk, jako malo... 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

 

Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down 

 

 

 

citam i neveruem... 

 

[steins]

1 hour ago, vememah said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf (translated by Deepl)

 

KZŠ na nemačkom:

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Rekoh vam na početku, Švabe dominiraju

[Dankan Ajdaho]

 

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 The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37 % according to the preliminary data from this study. The lethality rate currently calculated in Germany by Johns-Hopkins University is 1.98 %, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15 %.

 

Dakle...

 

Ako je verovati podacima iz studije, ovo su procenti koji bi putem ekstrapolacije mogli da se prenesu na krupnije zajednice?

[Tsai]

3 minutes ago, Dankan Ajdaho said:

 

 

Dakle...

 

Ako je verovati podacima iz studije, ovo su procenti koji bi putem ekstrapolacije mogli da se prenesu na krupnije zajednice?

 

Ako je to istina, zarazeno je 50+ miliona ljudi, ne? 

[Bogotac]

Uvek sam verovao da onix 10x zarazenih nije tacno,ovo mi zvuci mnogo uverljivije.

[ZerrorR]

17 minutes ago, Tsai said:

 

Ako je to istina, zarazeno je 50+ miliona ljudi, ne? 

 

broj mrtvih puta 50

[Tsai]

4 i po milki? Ja sam mislio vishe

[duda]

meni nešto ovde nije jasno

 

ajde, ko je čitao ceo članak ?  kojom se smrtnošću barata sada ?

i šta zači ona smrtnost od 0.37 % i  0,15 %

 

pa ako je 2 %, mi bi bili na 3300, što je maltene tačno to što je i objavljeno, a to mi je više nego neverovatno

[Joe D]

to je istrazivanje jednog nemackog sela, ne mogu se te brojke projektovati na globalno stanje.

[Minimoog]

Ti brojevi se steluju u zavisnosti od dnevnopolitickih potreba. Vrlo jednostavno, ako zelis da smanjis broj umrlih u odnosu na obolele, - pojacas testiranje. Ako ti treba manji broj obolelih, da bi pokazao da ti mere deluju, smanjis testiranje.