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jms_uk

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British Prime Minister Theresa May will address her Conservative lawmakers on Wednesday, possibly to announce a resignation date in a last throw of the dice to win support for her twice-rejected Brexit deal in parliament.

May was due to speak to the party’s so-called 1922 Committee at 1700 GMT on Wednesday, a lawmaker from her Conservative Party said, speaking on condition of anonymity, adding it was “certainly a possibility” she could set her date of departure.

The political editor of The Sun newspaper said May was expected to set a date for her resignation at the meeting.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/may-to-meet-her-lawmakers-as-resignation-talk-swirls-idUKKCN1R70VH?rpc=401&

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U međuvremenu neki ERG-ovci najavljuju da će opet glasati protiv, npr. Mogova prethodnica na čelu ERG-a.

 

 

10 podržavalaca manjinske vlade iz DUP-a i dalje nisu impresionirani.

 

 

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DUP MP Jim Shannon said it was beginning to look like the Eurosceptic ERG group, led by Mr Rees-Mogg, were more focused on Brexit than the Union.

...

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Tuesday morning Mr Shannon said it appeared that some ERG members had changed their stance.

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"They've not all changed their opinion, but they maybe see Brexit as a greater issue than the Union.

"We see the Union as the big issue, as the priority and that's what we're focused upon."

 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/jacob-reesmogg-may-back-mays-brexit-deal-but-dup-now-preparing-for-long-extension-37952186.html

Edited by vememah
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6 hours ago, Host said:

Razlika izmedju plana Therese May i carinske unije je manje-vise samo u lokaciji carinske kontrole i hronologije dogovora. Sto se tice mesta carinske kontrole, po prvom planu bi se obavljala izmedju Sirske i Britanije, dok bi po modelu carinske unije kontrola bila na granici sa Irskom. U cemu je stvar? Prakticno i jedan i drugi modalitet predstavljaju carinsku uniju sa EU. Carinska unija bez pristupa slobodnom trzistu podrazumeva kontrolu i sertifikaciju proizvoda - gde su proizvedeni, od kojih sirovina i pod kojim procedurama isl, tako da kontrola svakako mora da se obavlja negde izmedju kraljevstva i EU. Predlog Therese May mi se cini jednostavnijim za implementaciju (Sirska deo slobodnog trzista, nema nikakve kontrole na kopnenoj granici).

  

Druga stvar je hronologija dogovora. Naime, dogovor o carinskoj uniji ne znaci mnogo vise od toga da su se dve strane dogovorile da ce carinske unije biti. Drugim recima, detalji dogovora bi se zakljucili u nekom trenutku u buducnosti. U planu May je vec sadrzan nacrt dogovora, dok po planu carinske unije sve to tek treba da se ispregovara. Mana maysplainninga je sto je moguce da bi iz njega bilo lakse pobeci nego iz naknadno ispregovaranog dogovora. Zato sad deo ERGa naginje njenom planu.

  

 

Čini mi se da si nešto pobrkao...ne postoji plan Tereze Mej za budući odnos sa EU, postoji Withdrawal Agreement koji specificikuje privremeni odnos (tranzicioni period, koji je kao da si u EU privredno ali ne politički, dakle Norveška++, pa zatim, ako zatreba, backstop, koji je privremena carinska unija samo se iz političkih razloga tako ne naziva već "customs arrangement", plus obaveza da Sev. Irska - a ako to želi i ostatak UK - prati neke EU regulacije kako ne bi bilo potrebno proveravati proizvode koji prelaze granicu), i postoji politička deklaracija koja vrlo mutno priziva neki budući sporazum o slobodnoj trgovini i u kojoj se izražava nada da će ,,tehnološka rešenja" zameniti backstop (tj. carinsku uniju) kako bi Britanija onda mogla nezavisno da sklapa trgovinske sporazume sa trećim stranama (što ne bi mogla da radi u carinskoj uniji).

 

I nigde Tereza Mej nije predložila da se carinska kontrola odigrava između S. Irske i V. Britanije, ona je htela da se backstop proširi na celu UK (inicijalni predlog EU je bio da S. Irska bude deo carinske teritorije EU i da postoje carinske kontrole između S. Irske i VB, ali je to sa britanske strane nazvano ,,aneksijom" a Tereza Mej rekla da to ,,nijedan britanski premijer ne bi mogao prihvatiti") upravo zato što su bilo kakve kontrole između SI i VB veliki no-no za DUP. Dalje, po modelu carinske unije upravo nema nikakve kontrole na granici sa R. Irskom, jer bi cela poenta carinske unije bila da granica bude nevidljiva kao što je sada, a to je i obaveza koja proizilazi iz Good Friday Agreement-a.

 

Problem koji DUP ima sa planom je što ne postoji garancija da neće biti ozbiljnog "regulatory divergence" između S. Irske i VB, jer i pored "customs arrangement" S. Irska ima određene obaveze u smislu praćenja EU regulative koju ostatak UK može ali i ne mora da prati. Uz to treba uzeti u obzir da je DUP bio protiv GFA i da zapravo ne bi imali ništa protiv da opet postoji ,,tvrda" granica između SI i RI.

 

Problem koji ERGovci imaju je taj da oni ne žele carinsku uniju, a irski backstop UK po njihovoj interpretaciji ,,zarobljava" UK u de fakto carinskoj uniji dok se EU i UK obostrano ne slože da postoji drugi način da se obezbedi nevidljiva irska granica (koji trenutno ne postoji, jer da postoji, to bi bio backstop, a ne carinska unija). Oni se boje da će EU tako da drži UK zarobljenu godinama dok ne dobije šta hoće u budućem trgovinskom sporazumu sa njima, dok Britanija za to vreme neće moći da sklapa trgovinske sporazume sa trećim zemljama. Neki ERGovci sada naginju ka podršci tog plana (neki su već podržali na poslednjem glasanju) jer sada vide mogućnost da nikakvog brexita ni ne bude, pa su u fazonu ,,bolje loš brexit nego nikakav".

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14 hours ago, vememah said:

 

Tabela je loša, Švajcarska ima odnos sa EU koji je mnogo više od "Basic FTA" (npr. postoji sloboda kretanja radne snage, ne kao između članica EU i EEA, ali vrlo slična), sa druge strane Norveška i Island nisu potpuno u carinskoj uniji, poljoprivreda, ribarstvo, i prehrambeni proizvodi su izuzeti, tako da na granici između Norveške i Švedske postoji carinska kontrola (upravo ono što treba da se izbegne na granici između R. Irske i UK).

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Ne sećam se kad je neki politilčar bolje zaslužio nadimak drongo, čak ni Toni Ebot kad je dodelio kraljičinom mužu titulu viteza nije prišao toliko blizu. Stanovnici UK koji poznaju nekog Australijanca na privremenom radu u inostranstvu mogu da se raspitaju za personalno objašnjenje pojma - za sve ostale ima ovde:

 

A fool, a simpleton, an idiot. There is also a bird called a drongo. The spangled drongo is found in northern and eastern Australia, as well as in the islands to the north of Australia, and further north to India and China. It is called a drongo because that is the name of a bird from the same family in northern Madagascar. The spangled drongo is not a stupid bird. It is not a galah. One book describes it thus: 'The spangled drongo catches insects in the air, chasing them in aerobatic flight'. There is one odd story about the drongo, however: unlike most migratory birds, it appears to migrate to colder regions in winter. Some have suggested that this is the origin of the association of 'stupidity' with the term drongo. But this seems most unlikely.

 

So what is the true story? There was an Australian racehorse called Drongo during the early 1920s. It seems likely that he was named after the bird called the 'drongo'. He wasn't a an absolute no-hoper of a racehorse: he ran second in a VRC Derby and St Leger, third in the AJC St Leger, and fifth in the 1924 Sydney Cup. He often came very close to winning major races, but in 37 starts he never won a race. In 1924 a writer in the Melbourne Argus comments: 'Drongo is sure to be a very hard horse to beat. He is improving with every run'. But he never did win.

 

Soon after the horse's retirement it seems that racegoers started to apply the term to horses that were having similarly unlucky careers. Soon after the term became more negative, and was applied also to people who were not so much 'unlucky' as 'hopeless cases', 'no-hopers', and thereafter 'fools'. In the 1940s it was applied to recruits in the Royal Australian Air Force. It has become part of general Australian slang.

 

Buzz Kennedy, writing in The Australian newspaper in 1977, defines a drongo thus:

A drongo is a simpleton but a complicated one: he is a simpleton [of the] sort who not only falls over his feet but does so at Government House; who asks his future mother-in-law to pass-the-magic-word salt the first time the girl asks him home.... In an emergency he runs heroically in the wrong direction. If he were Superman he would get locked in the telephone box. He never wins. So he is a drongo.

The origin of the term was revived at Flemington in 1977 when a Drongo Handicap was held. Only apprentice jockeys were allowed to ride. The horses entered were not allowed to have won a race in the previous twelve months.

1941 Somers Sun 2 July: When you are called Drongo, ignore it.

2013 A. Goode Through the Farm Gate: I can't believe my drongo of a father is asking such ridiculous questions.

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