Oilopoly

[Ravanelli]

obama odbio keystone. interesantan govor u smislu okretanju ka renewables

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-keystone-xl-pipeline_55e74fd1e4b0b7a9633b693c

Edited November 6, 2015 by Ravanelli

[hazard]

Direktan rezultat kanadskih izbora. Pre toga je bio Harper (kan. premijer) koji je gurao iz svih snaga da se izgradi naftovod i to sa vrlo atipičnim za kanađane stavom prema amerima (,,I won't tako no for an answer from Obama"). Sad ga je zamenio Trudo koji je rekao da i ako podržava izgradnu naftovoda ne želi da to bude kamen spoticanja u odnosu sa amerikancima, drugim rečima dao je signal da ga boli tuki za keystone i da neće vršiti nikakav pritisak po tom pitanju. I odma je došla Obamina odluka

[Shan Jan]

Obama srao u gace od Harpera?

[Ravanelli]

Direktan rezultat kanadskih izbora. Pre toga je bio Harper (kan. premijer) koji je gurao iz svih snaga da se izgradi naftovod i to sa vrlo atipičnim za kanađane stavom prema amerima (,,I won't tako no for an answer from Obama"). Sad ga je zamenio Trudo koji je rekao da i ako podržava izgradnu naftovoda ne želi da to bude kamen spoticanja u odnosu sa amerikancima, drugim rečima dao je signal da ga boli tuki za keystone i da neće vršiti nikakav pritisak po tom pitanju. I odma je došla Obamina odluka

imaju kanađani problem sa tim. evropa ih možda zabrani zbog visokog carbon footprinta, amerii ih odbili za povećanje obima, dakle moći će ozbiljinije da izvoze jedino u aziju. ali sa druge strane, sa ovom cenom nafte je neprofitno ulagati u infrastrukturu za shipping u aziju, pa i praviti uopte nova ulaganja u vađenje te nafte. kapiram da im dobar komad ekonomije zavisi od nafte, a to će se samo urušavati... što je sve naravno odlična vest za planetu zemlju, jer nećemo otići u maksimalnu eksploataciju najprljavije moguće nafte

[iDemo]

...što je sve naravno odlična vest za planetu zemlju, jer nećemo otići u maksimalnu eksploataciju najprljavije moguće nafte

Za sada... :)

[Prospero]

ANATOLE KALETSKY

DEC 23, 2015

 

Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself

 

 

LONDON – Now that oil prices have settled into a long-term range of $30-50 per barrel (as described here a year ago), energy users everywhere are enjoying an annual income boost worth more than $2 trillion. The net result will almost certainly accelerate global growth, because the beneficiaries of this enormous income redistribution are mostly lower- and middle-income households that spend all they earn.

 

Of course, there will be some big losers – mainly governments in oil-producing countries, which will run down reserves and borrow in financial markets for as long as possible, rather than cut public spending. That, after all, is politicians’ preferred approach, especially when they are fighting wars, defying geopolitical pressures, or confronting popular revolts.

 

But not all producers will lose equally. One group really is cutting back sharply: Western oil companies, which have announced investment reductions worth about $200 billion this year. That has contributed to the weakness of stock markets worldwide; yet, paradoxically, oil companies’ shareholders could end up benefiting handsomely from the new era of cheap oil.

 

Just one condition must be met. The managements of leading energy companies must face economic reality and abandon their wasteful obsession with finding new oil. The 75 biggest oil companies are still investing more than $650 billion annually to find and extract fossil fuels in ever more challenging environments. This has been one of the greatest misallocations of capital in history – economically feasible only because of artificial monopoly prices.

 

But the monopoly has fallen on hard times. Assuming that a combination of shale development, environmental pressure, and advances in clean energy keep the OPEC cartel paralyzed, oil will now trade like any other commodity in a normal competitive market, as it did from 1986 to 2005. As investors appreciate this new reality, they will focus on a basic principle of economics: “marginal cost pricing.”

 

In a normal competitive market, prices will be set by the cost of producing an extra barrel from the cheapest oilfields with spare capacity. This means that all the reserves in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and Central Asia would have to be fully developed and exhausted before anyone even bothered exploring under the Arctic ice cap or deep in the Gulf of Mexico or hundreds of miles off the Brazilian coast.

 

Of course, the real world is never as simple as an economics textbook. Geopolitical tensions, transport costs, and infrastructure bottlenecks mean that oil-consuming countries are willing to pay a premium for energy security, including the accumulation of strategic supplies on their own territory.

 

Nonetheless, with OPEC on the ropes, the broad principle applies: ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP can no longer hope to compete with Saudi, Iranian, or Russian companies, which now have exclusive access to reserves that can be extracted with nothing more sophisticated than nineteenth-century “nodding donkeys.” Iran, for example, claims to produce oil for only $1 a barrel. Its readily accessible reserves – second only in the Middle East to Saudi Arabia’s –will be rapidly developed once international economic sanctions are lifted.

 

For Western oil companies,the rational strategy will be to stop oil exploration and seek profits by providing equipment, geological knowhow, and new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) to oil-producing countries. But their ultimate goal should be to sell their existing oil reserves as quickly as possible and distribute the resulting tsunami of cash to their shareholders until all of their low-cost oilfields run dry.

 

That is precisely the strategy of self-liquidation that tobacco companies used, to the benefit of their shareholders. If oil managements refuse to put themselves out of business in the same way, activist shareholders or corporate raiders could do it for them. If a consortium of private-equity investors raised the $118 billion needed to buy BP at its current share price, it could immediately start to liquidate 10.5 billion barrels of proven reserves worth over $360 billion, even at today’s “depressed” price of $36 a barrel.

 

There are two reasons why this has not happened – yet. Oil company managements still believe, with quasi-religious fervor, in perpetually rising demand and prices. So they prefer to waste money seeking new reserves instead of maximizing shareholders’ cash payouts. And they contemptuously dismiss the only other plausible strategy: an investment shift from oil exploration to new energy technologies that will eventually replace fossil fuels.

 

Redirecting just half the $50 billion that oil companies are likely to spend this year on exploring for new reserves would more than double the $10 billion for clean-energy research announced this month by 20 governments at the Paris climate-change conference. The financial returns from such investment would almost certainly be far higher than from oil exploration. Yet, as one BP director replied when I asked why his company continued to risk deep-water drilling, instead of investing in alternative energy: “We are a drilling business, and that is our expertise. Why should we spend our time and money competing in new technology with General Electric or Toshiba?”

 

As long as OPEC’s output restrictions and expansion of cheap Middle Eastern oilfields sheltered Western oil companies from marginal-cost pricing, such complacency was understandable. But the Saudis and other OPEC governments now seem to recognize that output restrictions merely cede market share to American frackers and other higher-cost producers, while environmental pressures and advances in clean energy transform much of their oil into a worthless “stranded asset” that can never be used or sold.

 

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has warned that the stranded-asset problem could threaten global financial stability if the “carbon budgets” implied by global and regional climate deals render worthless fossil-fuel reserves that oil companies’ balance sheets currently value at trillions of dollars. This environmental pressure is now interacting with technological progress, reducing prices for solar energy to near-parity with fossil fuels.

 

As technology continues to improve and environmental restrictions tighten, it seems inevitable that much of the world’s proven oil reserves will be left where they are, like most of the world’s coal. Sheikh Zaki Yamani, the longtime Saudi oil minister, knew this back in the 1980s. “The Stone Age did not end,” he warned his compatriots, “because the cavemen ran out of stone.”

 

OPEC seems finally to have absorbed this message and realized that the Oil Age is ending. Western oil companies need to wake up to the same reality, stop exploring, and either innovate or liquidate.

 

[hazard]

[Muwan]

Ode ispod 35.

 

"I think we'll see a price war soon to keep market share," said Tariq Zahir, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors. "Prices will get lower and I think we'll hit $32 again."

 

[Shan Jan]

Sta gura cene na dole? Nije Iran mogao tako brzo da uleti sa svojim povecanjem proizvodnje...

[Stolar]

Vise faktora, neki su vrlo iznenadjujuci: haos na berzama u Kini; usporavanje americke ekonomije(industrijska proizvodnja je u recesiji, ne i cela ekonomije, jer sektor usluga jos uvek drzi iznad nule ekonomiju, jedan razlog, ne jedini, za industrijsku recesiju je pad cene nafte); odbijanja rusa da seku proizvodnju iako ih saudijci zovu da to urade(najvece iznenadjenje) kako bi podigli cene; sukob saudijaca i irana sto dovodi do toga da saudijci upumpaju tokom 2015 dodatnih 1mb/d na trziste koje je vec zasiceno; rusi su isto podigli proizvodnju ali relativno malo u poredjenju sa saudima i irakom(kurdistan).

 

Prica oko rusa je najcudnija. Saudijci, kao vodeci clan OPECa, je rekla: secemo proizvodnju da bi digli cene ako clanov ne-OPECa to isto urade(da im ne bi oteli deo trzista), pre svih misle na ruse, kao najvece proizvodjaca i izvoznika ali rusi odbijaju. To ide toliko daleko da rusi daju neke ludacke izjave da nece seci proizvodnju cak iako cena padne na $15/ za barela, da se svi pripreme za duze vremena nize cene. Postoje delimicno objasnjenje, padom rublje, ruske kompanije su postale profitabilne, za razliku od zapadnih, cak i na ovim cenama. To pogadja ljude u rusiji sa vecom inflacijom ali kompanije u rubaljskim odnosima su profitabilne. Ali opet ruska ekonomija je pod pritiskom ali odbijaju da seku. Verujem da napadju americke proizvodjace, ne samo nafte, vec i gasa, jer je to povezano. Videcemo koliko ce Putin to da drzi.

[Jozef K.]

Ukidanjem embarga na iransku naftu stvaraju se uslovi za duži period da bude jeftina. Eno gore Prospero je okačio tekst. Cena koštanja nafte iz Irana je dolar. Posle sankcija njima je svaki dolar dobrodošao. Videćemo, ali ne vidim da će biti drugačije od ovih cifara.

 

Poslao tapatalk

Edited January 7, 2016 by Jozef K.

[MancMellow]

 

 

 

Sheikh Zaki Yamani, the longtime Saudi oil minister, knew this back in the 1980s. “The Stone Age did not end,” he warned his compatriots, “because the cavemen ran out of stone.”

 

 

 

[Eraserhead]

Vise faktora, neki su vrlo iznenadjujuci: haos na berzama u Kini; usporavanje americke ekonomije(industrijska proizvodnja je u recesiji, ne i cela ekonomije, jer sektor usluga jos uvek drzi iznad nule ekonomiju, jedan razlog, ne jedini, za industrijsku recesiju je pad cene nafte); odbijanja rusa da seku proizvodnju iako ih saudijci zovu da to urade(najvece iznenadjenje) kako bi podigli cene; sukob saudijaca i irana sto dovodi do toga da saudijci upumpaju tokom 2015 dodatnih 1mb/d na trziste koje je vec zasiceno; rusi su isto podigli proizvodnju ali relativno malo u poredjenju sa saudima i irakom(kurdistan).

 

Prica oko rusa je najcudnija. Saudijci, kao vodeci clan OPECa, je rekla: secemo proizvodnju da bi digli cene ako clanov ne-OPECa to isto urade(da im ne bi oteli deo trzista), pre svih misle na ruse, kao najvece proizvodjaca i izvoznika ali rusi odbijaju. To ide toliko daleko da rusi daju neke ludacke izjave da nece seci proizvodnju cak iako cena padne na $15/ za barela, da se svi pripreme za duze vremena nize cene. Postoje delimicno objasnjenje, padom rublje, ruske kompanije su postale profitabilne, za razliku od zapadnih, cak i na ovim cenama. To pogadja ljude u rusiji sa vecom inflacijom ali kompanije u rubaljskim odnosima su profitabilne. Ali opet ruska ekonomija je pod pritiskom ali odbijaju da seku. Verujem da napadju americke proizvodjace, ne samo nafte, vec i gasa, jer je to povezano. Videcemo koliko ce Putin to da drzi.

 

 

Imas samo dve greske. Najveci pad traznje je u Kini. Saudijci su ti koji ne zele da smanje proizvodnju iako su neke druge zemlje opeka to trazile od njih. Logika je pretpostavlja se da ocekuju da se situacija sa traznjom popravi a da ne zele da izgube trziste.

[Stolar]

Saudijci su zvali ruse pre posednjeg sastanka OPECa(4. decembar 2015.) da iseku zajedno proizvodnju te podignu cene, rusi su to odbili.

 

 

Iran, Russia reject idea of joint oil output cuts with Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has long insisted it would cut production only if fellow OPEC members and non-OPEC countries joined in.

Since then top non-OPEC producer Russia has repeatedly resisted calls for joint action and grown its output by 70 percent. Iran also wants to increase output after years of Western sanctions.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-floats-idea-lift-oil-125253445.html

 

Razumljivo je zasto Iran nece, oni su pod sankcijama i vec su smanjili izvoz za nekoliko stotina kb/d ranije ali zasto Rusija nece je misterija.

Kolicina iranske nafte koja ce se vratiti na trziste nije preterano velika i vec je ukljucena u danasnju cenu. Libija moze vise da ubaci ako se tamo stanje poboljsa.

 

Kineska potraznja je u porastu, nema veze kretanje na berzama u Kini sa njihovom potraznjom za naftom. U Kini se razvija sve veca srednja klasa koja ima sve vecu potrebu za automobilima.

Platts Report: China Oil Demand Grew 8% Year over Year in October

 

Chinese Domestic Auto Makers Fuel Rise in Sales[

 

To nema nikakve veze sa kretanjma na kineskoj berzi, koja je mnogo promenjljiva generalno gledano, i posledica je spustanja cene juana da bi povecali izvoz i smanjili uvoz, zbog toga sto su EU i Japan isto uradili, to je veliki problem a Amerikance(drugi razlog industrijske recesije u Americi)

[Stolar]

Uopsteno govoreci, Saudijci formalno glume da im nije problem pad cene ali iza scene su jako zabrinuti, prema pisanju Financial times(treba uzeti sa rezervom uvek), njihovi postupci to potvrdjuju. Budzetski deficit za 2015 im je $100 milijardi, 15% BDP, ove godine planiraju slicno iako su napravili rezove koje pogadjaju saudijsko stanovnistvo, cime je cena goriva i struje znacajno skocila u Saudijsko Arabiji.

Rusija je pogodjena isto, pad BDP 3-4% tokom 2015 ali oni sada kazu da je za njih najgore proslo cak i da cene idu jos nize i nece da seku. Mislim da dosta glume.

Iran zeli vece cene posle godina sankcija ali oni ne mogu mnogo da urade da bi stabilizovali svetske cene jer oni ne izvoze ni priblino kao saudi i rusi.

Amerikanci su posebna prica i to potencijalno opasna prica za svetsku ekonomiju ako se desi da skriljci budu novi subprime, a ima naznaka da je to tako.