Oilopoly

[Korki]

Венецуела тражи помоћ Русије у стабилизацији цене нафте иако Русија није чланица ОПЕКа али изгледа сада све зависи од ње.

 

Венесуэла просит Россию помочь в организации экстренной встречи ОПЕК

http://ria.ru/economy/20160122/1363130865.html

 

Изашли први индикатори индустријског и сервисног сектора за ЕУ и лошији су у јануару него ли у децембру, укупно гледајући. И поред тога што би се очекивало да на овако ниским ценама нафте буде обрнуто.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Korki

[Ravanelli]

od tih besmislica koje kači mene više zanima kako ide finasiranje botizma, koliki je keš, kako mu uplaćuju, da li mora da se pojavljuje na ceremonijama?

[Prospero]

Sad, kad su cene nafte otišle u majčinu, je idealno vreme da se malo više poradi na diversifikaciji ekonomije. Rusi treba da budu zahvalni za tu priliku  

[Lancia]

Sad, kad su cene nafte otišle u majčinu, je idealno vreme da se malo više poradi na diversifikaciji ekonomije. Rusi treba da budu zahvalni za tu priliku

Zar nije logicno da diversifikacija ekonomije vazi u ovom slucaju za zemlje uvoznice, a ne izvoznice?

[Prospero]

U ovoj ravni nije uvoznik bio zavistan od uvoza nego izvoznik od izvoza.

 

Diversifikuje se onaj ko proizvodi i ima prihod od prodaje; kupac će svakako trošiti manje para na uvoz jeftinije nafte a sa nekim viškovima raspolagati po svom nahođenju.

 

Za proizvođača to načelno znači da nema više povrat investicije u petrokomleks kakav je imao i da će kapital da traži druga mesta za investiranje.

[Ravanelli]

Pa nemaju prihode od nafte/gasa, pa im se ekonomija ne naslanja na te industrije?

Sto se tice zavisnih delatnosti, uvoznice su se odavno diversifikovale (batalile pricu) gde su mogle.

Sve sto koristi naftu i gas kao sirovinu za preradu je odavno izumrlo u uvoznicama. Npr proizvodnja metanolai hemijska industrija su u stagnaciji ili su umrle u evropi, dok u americi i rusiji divljaju zbog niskih cena. Amerika recimo nije mogla da nadje dovoljno zavarivaca da presele sva hemijska postrojenja iz juzne u severnu ameriku.

 

Proizvodjaci se nisudiversifikovali. Saudijci i ekipa su u problemu sada kako ce odrzati rezime. Rusija ima svojih problema, ali mi se ne ulazi u tu polemiku sa ljudima koji su placeni da na ovom forumu imaju drugacije musljenje :)

Edited January 23, 2016 by Ravanelli

[Lancia]

U ovoj ravni nije uvoznik bio zavistan od uvoza nego izvoznik od izvoza.

 

Diversifikuje se onaj ko proizvodi i ima prihod od prodaje; kupac će svakako trošiti manje para na uvoz jeftinije nafte a sa nekim viškovima raspolagati po svom nahođenju.

 

Za proizvođača to načelno znači da nema više povrat investicije u petrokomleks kakav je imao i da će kapital da traži druga mesta za investiranje.

Realno ta postdiversifikacija nije ekonomski pametna, jer se radi u periodu smanjenog priliva novca, ali nisu sve zemlje Norveska.

[Prospero]

Kako naterati novac da beži od dobre zarade?

 

 

Zavisi kakva je priroda protoka novca, da li je slobodna/tržišna ili najdirektnije uslovljena odlukom države, kao i to da li je država merkantilistička ili relativno slobodna. 

 

Problem je što oslonac na petrokompleks u vremenu visokih cena može da se objasni i jednim (tržišnim) i drugim (etatističkim) pristupom, jer su oba logična u tom smislu i isto reaguju na istu indikaciju (dobra je zarada i za privatnika i za budžet).

 

Novac bi sada kada su cene niske trebalo da beži iz petrokompleksa (ne sav novac, ne u celini, nadam se da je jasno da aproksimiram sve što kažem) i traži prostor u drugim granama, bar u izvesnoj meri. Kapital je stisnut niskom cenom i logikom tržišta bi morao negde da iscuri van petrokompleksa.

[Shan Jan]

S tim da se gas i nafta koriste i u ostvarivanju geostrateskih interesa Rusije pa cak i u vreme niske potraznje ima smisla gurati razvoj i siriti mrezu klijenata.

[Prospero]

S tim da se nafta u suštini ne prodaje direktno nego preko posrednika - Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor, Trafigura itd - pa ta vrsta strategije ne ide baš tako linearno.

 

Drugo, ako nam šta pad cene nafte pokazuje to je da u političkom smislu nafta/gas zapravo nisu neko oružje koliko se o njemu priča kao o oružju. Niti je Evropa ostala bez gasa, niti je Ukrajina ostala da se full smrzava, niti su zemlje izvoznice uspele da prejebu tržište, niti štagod drugo.

[Muwan]

Sve sto koristi naftu i gas kao sirovinu za preradu je odavno izumrlo u uvoznicama. Npr proizvodnja metanolai hemijska industrija su u stagnaciji ili su umrle u evropi, dok u americi i rusiji divljaju zbog niskih cena. Amerika recimo nije mogla da nadje dovoljno zavarivaca da presele sva hemijska postrojenja iz juzne u severnu ameriku.

 

Proizvodjaci se nisudiversifikovali. Saudijci i ekipa su u problemu sada kako ce odrzati rezime.

 

Zar nisu i Saudijci donekle uradili ono što si pomenuo u prvom pasusu? Npr. imaju Sabic koji je u top3 svetska proizvođača polimera, polietilena i polipropilena. A nisu baš ni veliki uvoznici digli ruke, BASF je još uvek najveći petrohemijski koncern na svetu a drugi je Sinopec. Ruse ne pamtim da sam video u prvih deset.

[Braća Strugacki]

eno ih u basfu

[Eraserhead]

Retail sales were down by 13% in 2015 with car sales off by 40%

[Ravanelli]

Russia’s Great Shift Downward

 

The trigger for the downturn, Inozemtsev says, was Putin’s return to the presidency in May 2012. He raised taxes on business and real estate to finance military spending and expanded the reach of inefficient state-controlled companies such as oil giant Rosneft. “Businesspeople became disillusioned,” curbing investment in factories and equipment, Inozemtsev says. Productivity slackened, corruption thrived, and foreign investment slowed as investors fretted about the state taking over their assets, says Timothy Ash, an emerging-markets strategist at Nomura International in London.

 

[Prospero]

Far-reaching reforms, economist Gontmakher says, “are contrary to the institutional interests of the current government.”

Da, čini se da je ovo načelno tačno.

 

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Opec mistrust clouds oil cutback talks with Russia

 

Anjli Raval in London and Jack Farchy in Moscow

 

 

 

When Saudi Arabia and Russia sat down to talk about limiting oil production 14 months ago, the discussions to stem a collapse in prices did not get very far. “The minister confirmed that Russia was not willing to cut,” Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s powerful energy minister later said about the meeting in a plush Vienna hotel. “We said ‘thank you’ and the meeting was over.”  Days later Mr Naimi upended the oil industry, forcing through a decision at Opec headquarters to keep the taps open and put pressure on rival producers outside the cartel.

 

For many oil market watchers, the outcome would be no different if the two energy super powers met again today, even though prices have fallen by more than half since that fateful meeting in November 2014.

While signals from Moscow this week about a willingness to entertain conversations about a collaboration with Opec producers excited traders — sending oil prices up more than 8 per cent — oil executives in Russia and Opec officials remain wary. “Co-ordination between Russia and Opec has been discussed in the past and has always come to nothing, and it would be a shock if any different outcome occurred this time,” says James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

 

Russia has long argued that the structure of its oil industry, with many different private companies rather than a single state group, and its harsh weather conditions make a government-mandated output cut unfeasible.

 

However, the continued plunge in oil prices has refocused minds in Moscow. While many in the oil sector and the government still see a cut as unworkable, several senior figures are now calling for talks in Opec. Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, on Thursday said Russia was ready to participate in a meeting with Opec countries. “We had these sorts of consultations before, when the situation was somewhat different. As we see, prices have fallen,” he said.

 

One reason for the shift in tone is the deteriorating state of Russia finances. The government — which traditionally has depended on oil and gas for about half of their revenues — is discussing further swingeing public sector cuts after drawing up its budget on the assumption of $50 oil. It is also quickly depleting its rainy-day fund. “You can’t just write off these latest comments,” says Gary Ross, chairman of consultancy Pira Energy, who was a member of the advisory group that worked to convince Russia to join Mexico and Norway in co-ordinated production cuts in the early 2000s. “Low prices have a way of concentrating the mind. For the first time in a long time this is seriously being considered,” he says. “It’s a tough one, and there is no guarantee, but there is a process that is in motion.” And with many analysts predicting a rebound in oil prices in the second half of the year, Moscow is also loath to lose market share to other producers — most notably from US shale companies.

 

Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft who is in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, has for much of the last year led the charge against calls for a co-ordinated production cut. Mikhail Leontyev, Rosneft spokesman, told the Financial Times: “All positions are well known, they have not changed in any way.”

 

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, Russia’s record of keeping its word is not good and decades of mistrust are likely to colour any negotiations on co-ordinated output cuts. Comments from Khalid al-Falih, chairman of state oil company, suggest the kingdom is preparing for the long haul. “If prices stay low we will be able to withstand [it] for a long time,” said Mr Falih. While Russia agreed to join efforts in 1998 and 2001 to cut production they never stuck to their side of the bargain — something that has never been forgotten by senior figures in the Saudi oil ministry. It made no commitments in 2008 and refused to curb output 2014.  “Anything Russia says now I doubt they will be taken seriously. Saudi Arabia has been there, done that, got the T-shirt and been ripped off in the past,” said Paul Stevens, a Senior Research Fellow at think-tank Chatham House.

 

But Russia — which like Saudi Arabia increased its own production in 2015 — is not the only hurdle that needs to be overcome before co-ordinated supply cuts can become a reality.

 

Saudi Arabia has said it would only consider lowering output if it was joined by other members of the cartel as well as other large producers such as Russia. Yet several Opec members — Iran and Libya — are demanding the right to produce as much as they can to make up for years of lower production because of war and sanctions. For the kingdom, production cuts whether it be from Russia or Opec members is difficult to monitor and enforce. “There is a lot of mistrust,” said one person familiar with the matter.

Edited January 30, 2016 by Prospero