Endarkenment

[Prospero]

@bufalo, ja sam apsolutno siguran da je welfare moguc (pitanje je samo u kojoj snazi). Zapravo da preformulisem, apsolutno sam siguran da je odrziva, cakstavise, bolja ekonomija moguca uz vise preraspodele ka siromasnijem spektru stanovnistva. A to mi je nekako i ljudskije. Koliko god volim privatno vlasnistvo, meritokratiju & nagradu za one koji se trude vise i jace, toliko mislim da je to sve stvar odnosa, ne fiksnih iznosa. Nije bitno dal onaj koji je bolji ima 20 puta ili 20% vecu platu od losijeg od sebe, bitna je razlika. Takva da podstice one zeljne uspeha a ne kaznjava one zeljne mirnijeg zivota.

pa nije sporan pristup welfare-u nego se pitam da li će to moći da se realno fianansira, tj da li će uopšte postojati rezerve u društvu da ga održe na sličnom nivou, sve i sa jačom internom preraspodelom.

Sigurno jeste i sve to. Ostaje da se vidi kako će biti kad se planeta ekonomski-socijalno izravna. Mada i na Zapadu ima raznih zapleta. Njemački kapetani industrije glasno gunđaju da će prebaciti proizvodnju u USA zbog amrikanske podrške škriljcima umjesto poskupljenja rada na solarnu struju IV Reicha.

hteo sam da napišem da mogu da uvezu iz poljske :) kad vidim da su se ameri povukli sa shale gas explorationa tamo. gazprom može da odahne, bar na kratko.to što kažeš za izravnjavanje - i meni je to utisak - preliva se na istok, uslovi za ljude na zapadu postaju grubo rečeno gori. ne vidim da se to može preokrenuti ili usporiti nekakvom pojedinačno-državnom akcijom. na to bih svakako nadovezao i pomenutu robotizaciju, jer je trend da ljudski rad postaje izlišan, dakle konvergencija više trendova ide protiv, let's say, kvaliteta života na zapadu.

[Indy]

@Evi: ne znam zaista. Cini mi se da na zapadu i dalje strucnjaci ne gladuju uprkos naletu trecesvetana. A ni bogme ovde po afrikama (ako izuzmemo par raspalih drzava ala Srbija 90tih).

Ne gladuju strucnjaci ni u Srbiji, a zive u Srbiji... tako da ne znam sta je tvoja poenta.EDIT. Drugo, nemoj biti od sorte od koju se argumenti odbijaju kao ulje od vode, pliz. Linkovao sam ti kazual-izaciju nastavnika npr. To je tradicionalno bio najsigurniji posao. Da, nastavnici ne gladuju. Ne, negladovanje ne znaci da oni sada pripadaju onome sto se pre par decenija zvalo srednja klasa. U tvoju odbranu, moram da kazem da je pojava o kojoj pisem (a pre mene ovi autori koje sam pomenuo u par prethodnih postova) prilicno nevidljiva, za sada. To, naravno, ne znaci da ne postoji, kao sto ni cinjenica da su u zapadnim drustvima working poor slabo vidljivi naravno da ne znaci da ne postoje. Oni koji su devedesetih na kratko posetili Beograd su mogli da vide namontirane zenske i frajere koji po ceo dan sede po kaficima. To, naravno, znaci da su svi Srbi tako ziveli devedesetih, jel'da. Edited May 27, 2013 by Indy

[Shan Jan]

Priznajem, nemam dovoljno podataka/iskustva da bih raspravljao o menjanju sigurnosti. Verovatno je u globalu sve gore i nesigurnije (iako i dalje ima prilicno sigurnih profesija). Meni u oci npr. upada stalna potraznja u Nemackoj za strucnjacima a bogme znam puno srpskih arhitekata koji su odperjali u Kinu da rade. Da ne pricam koliko se po Africi traze svih profila. Dakle, ne mislim da je potpuno crno za strucnjake (opet na osnovu slabih podataka) al sigurnost posla jeste upitna. Meni je mozda lakse jer sam navikao tako (a i mlad pa vise gledam kako da grabim ka boljem nego da budem siguran gde jesam). To je opet po meni nesto sto drzava treba da uskoci sa dobrim programima zastite.@Bufalo: sigurno zapadna drustva nisu tako bogata i ne mogu da daju onoliki welfare kao sto su se neki nadali. Ipak ne moramo biti gramezljivi. Ja u welfare podrazumevam krov nad glavom (ne nuzno veliki), prevoz do posla i ostalih mesta (ne nuzno auto), hranu (ne nuzno suvo meso), odecu (ne nuzno... u get point), zdravstvo, penziono, free skolstvo. Mislim da je to moguce i sa danasnjim finansijama ako se zagrebe malo po novcaniku privilegovanih. Sad ako je nekom zinulo dupe da voza dobar auto, drka laptop od iljadu i mobilni od 500 evara i to naziva welfareom to je njegov problem (meni omiljena kuknjava ovde je kad krenu da pricaju da zele "zivot dostojan coveka" a time misle na mogucnost da pazare nov leksus svake godine i zive u petosobnoj kuci u skupom kraju).

[Indy]

Mislio sam da je bilo ocigledno da sam pisao o razvijenom delu sveta. Takodje, potraznja za strucnjacima koji su tek diplomirali, ili pre par godina, i onima koji imaju npr. 15 ili 25 god. iskustva nikako nije ista. Kao sto sasvim ocito stanje nije isto ni po strukama.Ukratko, ovo sto sam kacio se ne odnosi (za sada) na mlade ili relativno mladje, niti na one koji su u zemljama u razvoju. Oni, naravno, imaju druge probleme.Naravno, tu i tamo ima i preklapanja.

[Indy]

Pomenuo sam ranije da su neke stvari koje se ovde spominju "nevidljive". (Iz raznih razloga, od kojih non-disclosure postaje sve bitniji: naime otpušteni više o tome ne smeju javno ni da pričaju, tj. o detaljima restrukturiranja firmi i sl.) Evo ovde komentara (svih, pošto su bukvalno svi bitni) na vest o velikom otpuštanju u IBM Australia (preko 1000 ljudi, mada niko ne zna zvaničnu cifru). Odliv poslova u druge zemlje (a posebno Indiju) je ogroman. Tamo gde ja radim deo operacija je u Indiji (oni, telefonom, učestvuju u našem poslu, samo sede negde u Delhiju). Naravno, ovo nije pisanje protiv Indijaca, već se postavlja pitanje šta se zbiva sa (masovno) otpuštenim Ozijima, Amerikancima i sličnima... puno njih nađe novi posao sličan izgubljenom (naravno), ali cenim da mnogi postaju "nevidljivi". Usputni detalj - porodični prijatelj, maš. inžinjer, izgubio je posao u IBM Kanada negde 1980-tih, isto ovako kao u ovom slučaju. Bio je oko 50 god starosti, i nikada više nije imao "pravi" posao iza toga. (Jedan od komentatora ispod kaže da IBM globalno ovo radi "40 godina". ) 21 comments so far

• How is this a new strategy ? They've been laying off people for decades...
  Commenter Simon Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 10:26AM
  • It isn't a strategy. It's a reaction.
    Commenter Nicho Location Sydney Date and time June 14, 2013, 10:47AM

  [*]

  Outsourcing the work to where? India, Philippines, Brazil? Anywhere cheaper.
  Commenter WillD Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 10:53AM
  • IBM = India Business Machines. A race to the bottom when it comes to body shopping and not quality and value.
    Commenter Nexu789 Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:30PM

  [*]

  I can tell you categorically, that many roles moved from Aus to cheaper places. In particular, India, the Philippines, and even NZ, of all places.One guy I know told me that Aus contract project managers were replaced with NZ permies, due to the cheaper currency, and the cheaper wages period, overall making a big difference.
  Commenter Expendables Location Sydney Date and time June 14, 2013, 11:19AM[*]
  Fellow IT service provider, CSC has been getting rid of all levels of staff in Australia and overseas over the past few years. Probably more staff made redundant in Australia by CSC than Ford has put off. The work is still there, but its shifting to cheaper offshore locations. The offshore staff come to Australia to be trained for about a month on 457's, although those VISA's are not meant to be used if it takes an Australian job.Companies want 3rd world costs, for OECD world profits. In this it to please the shareholders , from the USA in this case.Only governments can change things, but they represent the companies more than the people.
  Commenter Mainframer Location Sydney Date and time June 14, 2013, 11:28AM
  • CSC has been laying off a lot of staffs in Australia for years and doing it very quietly to avoid media attention.....
    Commenter unhappy staff Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:06PM

  [*]

  Why does loss of work by ~1200 Ford workers or ~250 Target workers generate more noise that loss of work by tens of thousands of IT workers across all of Australia for last 10-15 years?Why does the government allow importation of cheap labour into Australia when Australian passport holders lose their jobs? Why does the government allow blatant off-shoring of IT work to 3rd world countries by Australian companies so the corporate fat cats can boost their profits at expense of ordinary Australians?Australians will never be able to compete with 3rd world labour on price.Reminder: unemployed Australians become a problem not only for Australian government but for working Australians - the TAXES pay for the unemployed welfare.Wake up Australia and say NO to imported cheap labour.Election in Sep 2013.Sadly - both Labor and Liberals allow these practices to continue.Bring IT back to Australia, it is the future. There is no IT skills shortage, this is a myth generated by Australian corporations to allow then to cut their costs by using cheap foreign labour.
  Commenter acid Location melbourne Date and time June 14, 2013, 12:20PM
  • @acid, mate it is all about votes. We don't matter to them, unless we form a powerful group to control a significant voting block. And anything that involves knowledge and tech is not the interest of gov. They are happy to stick up for a plumber than us.
    Commenter sam Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:32PM

  [*]

  IBM stands for I've been moved. I know I have worked for them.
  Commenter Inspector Rex Location MELBOURNE Date and time June 14, 2013, 1:15PM[*]
  As one of the many IBM staff made redundant, a few notes. First it's been happening slowly and steadily for a number of years - in my own case, it was late 2012 when the company and I parted ways. I had watched a lot of very capable people and a hell of a lot of experience leave over the past couple of years. The influx of IBM-India staff on the infamous 457s was notable. They'd arrive, shadow a local and then depart and take the role with them. Another local on the scrap heap. From a business perspective moving work to IBMI makes sense. Only the government accounts require onshore Australian permenant residents, so virtually all othe GBS roles and many GTS roles can be moved offshore. Cost cutting and better margins are vital to the company's global wee being.Secondly, the internal rumours I still hear about are suggesting 1200 jobs to go.Thirdly, IBMA haven't been writing a lot of new business (in the eastern states at least) in recent years. This is common knowledge in the industry as many of their competitors are also down on business and therefore local jobs.Finally, my personal feeling is that IBMA will virtually cease to be in the next 5 years. GBS for Australian accounts will probably be run from an Asian hub like Singapore.
  Commenter jme Location Melbourne Date and time June 14, 2013, 1:50PM
  • jmeI was in same boat in 2012 with GTS so I fully agree with what you are saying I was in GTS and they were being decimated by the likes of dell hp and oracle/sun but so many good people were let go only to be replaced by idiot 457's.Once a great company but no longer as far as I am concerned
    Commenter ian Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:24PM

  [*]

  Yes I.B.M. has been doing this for 40 years. As soon as agood person get's some time in OUT they go. Then a younger person comes in at a cheaper rate of pay. I think it is time to notionalize the company. In Europe they still respect the worker. America once did. Oh some day we all will pay the price.
  Commenter E Debs Location Mpls. Mn. Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:05PM[*]
  I have been telling people for years we have to stop Aus jobs being sent off shore.By 'we' I mean the govt. we will eventually fall off the cliff where not enough Australians are in work. The best Julia can come up with is that we are a resiliant and creative society. but that's not going to help the thousands of Australians on the srap heap trying to survive on what is left of their super...
  Commenter PK@Werribee Location Werribee Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:20PM[*]
  As an IBM employee indirectly involved in the resource action I would say that the true figure will be between 1300 and 1400 by the time the 'wave's' end by the end of July.
  Commenter Jones Location Melbourne Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:20PM[*]
  As a "victim" of the outsourcing by IBM in 2010 who then got picked up by the out-sourced customer, I now have do deal with my IBM India replacement (actually their replacement WHO I NOW HAVE TO TRAIN IN IBM PROCESSES) ... go figure !!!IBM is no longer a tech-savy company, it's run by bean-counters ...
  Commenter cparry Location melbourne Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:30PM[*]
  Australia has to master IT for our future. The damage caused by 457 Visa has been done.
  Commenter ESM Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:41PM[*]
  What about other global IT providers, they have been laying off staffs for years but doing that very quietly to avoid media attention.....I have BA in Applied Science + 20 years experience in IT and 10 years in Lotus Notes Administration .....and now a cleaner
  Commenter UnhappyStaff Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 2:45PM
  • I hear your pain. After my redundancy I tried the lawn mowing thing but too inconsistent through the year. Glad I studied to get 2 degrees - NOT. I would never encourage young people to even bother getting into this area. This is a race to the bottom. You become unemployable and invisible in your 50's as well.
    Commenter CrustyPete Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:40PM

  [*]

  Going down the US path where real jobs will be stripped out from the economy and all that will be left will be part time service jobs and government benefits (if they pay them).Politicians are clueless and in the pockets of vested interests. They simply don't care as they are sitting pretty with their assured super payments while the country falls apart.
  Commenter Nexus789 Location Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:35PM[*]
  I left IBM recently and can tell you there is a broken culture in that organisation. Moral is woeful and the environment is not inspiring whatsoever. Take the money and run folks. You won't regret it.
  Commenter XIBM Location Elsewhere Date and time June 14, 2013, 3:57PM

[Shan Jan]

Posao za vladu reko bih ja. Secam se jednog clanka, kad je neka firma otvorila fabriku u Nemackoj. Ugovor je zahtevao da fabrika postoji bar 5 godina. Nakon tacno 5 godina razrusili je i preneli u profitabilnije istocne krajeve. IT ce takodje biti sve zasiceniji, mada, i dalje je potrebno dublje znanje. Kao i svi menadjeri, verovatno je krenulo i u IBMu da se baca vise posla na sposobne magarce a da se za sitno zaposljavaju ljudi sa slabim iskustvom i znanjem.

[braca]

Globalizacija na delu, my friends...Trend je postavljen i nema izgleda da će se skoro zaustaviti. Da bi gladni iz zemalja u razvoju mogli da imaju malo veće parče kolača, moramo mi na zapadu da smanjimo svoj deo. Dok se jednog dana manje više ne izjednačimo...

[Indy]

Razlozi mogu biti ovi ili oni... nije samo globalizacija. Poenta (barem ovih nekoliko poslednjih strana) je da stara prica o nekoj (manje-vise) osiguranoj srednjoj klasi sa (dobrom) fakultetskom diplomom na Zapadu vise ne stoji.

[braca]

Pa dolazi red na njih. Prvo su se odselili najjeftiniji poslovi, tj oni za koje treba minimalna kvalifikacija (konfekcija, plastika, elektronika... ). Sad su na redu sledeći, pa tako redom dok svet ne postane stvarno globalno selo. Nećemo biti tu da to vidimo, matori, ali neizbežno je.

[Indy]

Osipanje srednje klase (na duze staze - ali, ne mnogo dugacke) nece na dobro da izadje. Po prvi put u mnogo generacija imamo situaciju da roditelji vise ne mogu da podrazumevaju da ce njihovi potomci ziveti bolje od njih, pa cak ni jednako kao oni. To je esencijalna nesigurnost (vise psiholoska, nego fizicka/fizioloska). Ko ima vremena, moze da baci pogled na ovo sta je o tome pisao Stratfor (odnosi se prevashodno na USA, ali ima tu ponesto i za druge).Za funkcionisucu demokratiju je nuzno da srednja klasa bude solidna (kao sto je pre par strana objasnjavao onaj tekst koji sam linkovao). I to, naravno, ne vazi samo za Ameriku.Occupy protesti, kao i rast Tea Party (koji su nekako koincidirali) - mislim da su to mali simptomi pocetka osipanja srednje klase, sto je mnogim ljudima nevidljivo posto ga nema u medijima, skoro uopste. U principu (sem onih koji citaju "strucnu" literaturu) toga su svesni oni koji to sami prolaze, nesto slicno obolelima od teskih bolesti. Ostali to (ako mogu da ga izbegnu) - ne vide.PS. Evo i jedne sveze UK studije o novom raslojavanju srednje klase, ovde.

[Prospero]

Q&A with Fredrik Erixon and Björn Weigel, authors of The Innovation Illusion – How so Little is Created by so Many Working so Hard (Yale University Press)

 

 

Question: Why is there an innovation illusion?

 

Answer: People are almost daily fed with horror stories about how robots, artificial intelligence, or smart machines are going to destroy jobs and make us all miserable. While there are many exciting technologies developed, our point is that innovation is not about new technologies but economies adapt to something new. And the sad reality is that Western economies are not adapting fast enough and that innovation does not power economic growth as much as it could and should. We have this vision about our current time as extremely innovative, but when you study how our economies work you rather get a depressing view of companies, labour and governments and how they are ever more hostile to radical change. They are all too often defending themselves against innovation rather than embracing it.

 

Q: Is this a new phenomenon – were western societies more innovative in previous decades?

 

A: No, it is not a new phenomenon. Western societies have certainly been more open to innovation in previous decades, but we document a 40-year trend of innovation slowdown. During that period, productivity growth has declined. Companies increasingly spend less of their revenues on innovation or to invest in long-term business building. Now that investment institutions own most of Western blue chip firms, we see that they are taking capital out of companies, but that is a trend that started several decades ago. Companies have generally become more bureaucratic and defensive of their product stock. Multinational firms wield greater market power than before, and it becomes increasingly difficult to really contest markets with new innovations. Globalisation helped to shape such markets – as did new waves of extremely complex regulations that deter innovators and companies from investing in radical innovation.

 

Q: You say that capitalism has lost its mojo – what do you mean?

 

A: Capitalism is a system for economic change and what economist Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction”. What we have now is more like a rentier form of capitalism – or a grey form of capitalism that is dominated by retirees. We don’t have many real capitalists anymore. The big firms are mostly owned by investment institutions managing other people’s money hunting foremost for predictable returns, and as societies grow older a greater share of savings is invested in firms that can deliver predictable returns. Innovation, however, is never completely predictable. It takes time for innovation investments to yield results and such investments will always be clouded by great amounts of uncertainty. But uncertainty is something that firms and investment institutions can’t stomach – they turn away from it.

 

[MancMellow]

Društva stare, prikupljanje bogatstva umesto kapitala, kao i averzija prema inovaciji kao, ipak, jednoj vrsti pomalo nesigurne investicije, je ono što sa svakom starošću prirodno dolazi. In turn, takva "materijalna baza" je dovela i do ideološke učmalosti, lenjosti i neinventivnosti. Ali to je daleko od toga da je cela priča.

 

"Zadnjih 40-tak godina" se, uslovno rečeno, poklapa sa krahom Bretton-Woods sistema, ideološkom krizom s kraja 60-tih godina i energetskom krizom koja je započela već sredinom 60-tih (povezano sa krizama na Bliskom istoku), sigurno od 1967 i odgovorom koji je na sve to pružen. Taj odgovor je doveo do toga da se profit prevashodno traži ne kroz inovacije, nego kroz veću razliku između cene radne snage i cene proizvoda. 

 

Primer dva dobra ideološki suprotstvaljena mišljenja na tu temu bi recimo bila ova:

 

s leva: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/david-harvey-neoliberalism-capitalism-labor-crisis-resistance/

 

s desna: http://www.deirdremccloskey.com/academics/index.php#bd

 

Kako god bilo, lično mislim da nije bilo moguće da inovativnost "ekspolidira" putem sve većih investicija na područijima gde je prosečna obrazovanost i specijalizacija svih moguih struktura niža. 

 

Ukratko, politika će morati da se vrati u ekonomiju, jer, kao što vidimo, ako se ne vrati na ovaj način, vratiće se na drugi. 

[Budja]

Društva stare, prikupljanje bogatstva umesto kapitala, kao i averzija prema inovaciji kao, ipak, jednoj vrsti pomalo nesigurne investicije, je ono što sa svakom starošću prirodno dolazi. In turn, takva "materijalna baza" je dovela i do ideološke učmalosti, lenjosti i neinventivnosti. Ali to je daleko od toga da je cela priča.

 

"Zadnjih 40-tak godina" se, uslovno rečeno, poklapa sa krahom Bretton-Woods sistema, ideološkom krizom s kraja 60-tih godina i energetskom krizom koja je započela već sredinom 60-tih (povezano sa krizama na Bliskom istoku), sigurno od 1967 i odgovorom koji je na sve to pružen. Taj odgovor je doveo do toga da se profit prevashodno traži ne kroz inovacije, nego kroz veću razliku između cene radne snage i cene proizvoda. 

 

Primer dva dobra ideološki suprotstvaljena mišljenja na tu temu bi recimo bila ova:

 

s leva: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/david-harvey-neoliberalism-capitalism-labor-crisis-resistance/

 

s desna: http://www.deirdremccloskey.com/academics/index.php#bd

 

Kako god bilo, lično mislim da nije bilo moguće da inovativnost "ekspolidira" putem sve većih investicija na područijima gde je prosečna obrazovanost i specijalizacija svih moguih struktura niža. 

 

Ukratko, politika će morati da se vrati u ekonomiju, jer, kao što vidimo, ako se ne vrati na ovaj način, vratiće se na drugi. 

 

Sta ovo tacno znaci?

 

I kako je to suprotno inovacijama, gde je ta razlika verovatno i najveca?

[MancMellow]

pa jeste najveca, naravno. ali je ulaganje u inovacije i mnogo veci rizik. Sto se i kaze u tekstu koji je Prospero linkovao, a sto je i logicno™

[Braća Strugacki]

Životni vek proizvoda se opasno promenio, inovacije su sve veći rizik i ono što je nekada bio razvoj i istraživanje se sada svodi na kljakavi razvoj.