4 minutes ago, Marcus Wulffings said:

Amerika i Iran postigli dogovor. Trump: Neka nafta poteče

a nisam baš nešto siguran da će poteći u izdašnim količinama, ali ajde

Vrlo cudna situacija sve zajedno.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, what has been finalized is a memorandum of understanding & framework for ending military operations, lifting the blockade & opening the way for further negotiations.

A formal signing is expected on Friday.

However, a further 60-day negotiating process would then follow, covering sanctions, the nuclear file, economic reconstruction, implementation mechanisms & verification of commitments.

Iranian officials also stress that entry into those negotiations is conditional on the United States first implementing its commitments regarding the end of the war, lifting the siege & releasing assets.

In short, this appears less like a final settlement & more like a framework designed to stop the fighting & create the conditions for a broader agreement.

The immediate question remains the same:

Can Trump deliver Israel?

Because if military operations are indeed meant to end on all fronts, including Lebanon, then Lebanon may provide the first real test of whether this understanding holds in practice.

A word of caution, however. We have heard talk of agreements, imminent agreements, understandings & breakthroughs before. Friday is still a long way away in military terms, & the road beyond it is longer still.

Much can happen between now & then. There are many stages yet to navigate & no shortage of actors capable of derailing the process.

Celebrations may be premature.

https://x.com/HalaJaber/status/2066287894172450999

Izrael ce i ovo busiti sa 17 strana, to je ono a given.

within the next 60 days.

We do, however, know a few things:

1) Israel is actively trying to undermine the deal - for instance by striking Beirut yesterday Sunday.

Israeli media say that the deal is causing "profound concern among Israeli officials," that "Israel, despite having started the war alongside the US, was not involved in the negotiations," and that "the deal do[es] not achieve the goals of the war that were set out by the US and Israel" (https://timesofisrael.com/us-iran-reach-deal-to-end-war-reportedly-including-lebanon-conflict-trump-hormuz-to-open/).

That last part is clear: the very existence of this MOU proves the objectives of the war were not met, as they certainly didn't include the US negotiating an exit with an undefeated Iran while Israel is freaking out about it on the sidelines.

2) We know, because both parties and Pakistan (the mediator) confirmed it, that a finalized MOU does exist and that it's due to be formally signed on Friday in Switzerland by JD Vance and maybe Trump himself (Vance told Fox News: “I certainly plan to be there, but it’s possible the president himself could be there” https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deal-reached-united-states-iran-war-rcna350039)

3) We know Trump ordered the US naval blockade to be lifted (supposedly today, Monday)

4) The Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the Iranian side (though both parties publicly spun the terms differently - Trump says "toll-free," Iran's FM Araghchi says with "service fees")

5) The war would end on all fronts including Lebanon - both sides used this exact phrase. Israel, obviously, is trying hard to spoil this.

6) Some form of sanctions relief is included - Iran speaks of "termination of all sanctions" (https://fortune.com/2026/06/14/iran-ceasefire-terms-mou-versions-us-deal-sanctions-hormuz-blockade-nuclear-program-frozen-assets/) and a senior US official confirmed the structure is "Iran would earn economic rewards each time it met a set of US demands"

7) The MOU apparently does not agree on anything wrt nuclear, just that it will be discussed during the 60-day negotiation window, with Iran maintaining its current nuclear status quo in the meantime

8) In fact I suspect the MOU defers most things truly contested - like nuclear - to later negotiations while resolving in the immediate only the problems the war itself created: stop shooting, reopen the strait (under updated Iranian rules), and lift the blockade.

Which means that, most likely, this "deal" is - at this stage - less a deal than an acknowledgement of the new status quo reached in the war. It differs from the April 5 ceasefire in that, this time, the US is lifting all coercion it introduced in the war - including the naval blockade it imposed on April 13.

So in effect the war had two phases of failed coercion (military, then economic with the blockade), and the MOU formalizes the failure of both.

In exchange what the US is getting is a conversation about its initial stated war objectives (like nuclear), which it will now have to pursue after having proven it cannot impose them by force.

Needless to say, you don't get better terms at the table after showing you couldn't get them on the battlefield 🤷

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2066381129675096138

Edited June 15Jun 15 by vememah

already dropped more than 3% on Friday

The draft agreement would

🔹 Reopen the Strait within 30 days
🔹 End the US naval blockade of Iranian ports
🔹 Allow commercial traffic to resume without tolls
🔹 Begin a broader 60 day negotiation period

The market is now removing the geopolitical premium that pushed crude higher during the conflict (Reuters)

But the physical recovery will take time

🔹 Damaged infrastructure still needs repairs
🔹 Producers must restart output
🔹 Tankers need confidence to return
🔹 Insurance and freight costs may remain elevated

Analysts estimate Hormuz flows may only need to recover to around 60% to 70% of prewar levels for the market to return toward its previous oversupply outlook (Reuters)

The headline is peace

The real trade is how quickly the barrels return

Image source Reuters

https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2066317802869563596

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116750814874397998

Edited June 15Jun 15 by vememah

banana republic.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2066398103737909494

Edited June 15Jun 15 by vememah

Pa ništa, pošto Izrael neće da sarađuje, ima 2 opcije, iz koje ćemo saznati ko je ovde glavni baja:

ili na kraju nema dogovora,

ili će izrael gadno najebati ako nastavi da bude protiv...

Šta li će biti

Edited June 15Jun 15 by radisa

47 minutes ago, radisa said:

Šta li će biti

Ameri prvi prekrše 1/1

Ako već ne mogu da obuzdaju džukelu knozi biće više mačo da oni udare pre njih

Edited June 15Jun 15 by Desmond Bojčinski

2 minutes ago, Desmond Bojčinski said:

Ameri prvi prekrše 1/1

Ako već ne mogu da obuzdaju džukelu knozi biće više mačo da oni udare pre njih

To je pod 1, nema dogovora, USA je izraleska bitch, svi ćemo najebati zbog toga...

Ili se nastavlja fajt u Libanu ali nema vise intervencija USA.

https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/2066283755493290180

Slike:

https://x.com/SaulStaniforth/status/2066392665055215908

Edited June 15Jun 15 by vememah

6 minutes ago, vememah said:

https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/2066283755493290180

Slike:

Ja vidim neku chat grupu sa nesto vise od 10 clanova i postove sa po 3-4 lajka.

Sad baš htedoh da kažem, telegram kanal sa 180k članova, pa to je pakao na zemlji. Meni je i roditeljska viber grupa na mjutu većinu vremena.

Just now, zorglub said:

Sad baš htedoh da kažem, telegram kanal sa 180k članova, pa to je pakao na zemlji. Meni je i roditeljska viber grupa na mjutu većinu sve vreme.

Ja ne znam kako ljiudi mogu to da drže uključeno, uopšte... Pakao kao takav...