President Trump Lost This War

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/opinion/-trump-lost-war-iran.html

The preliminary deal ending President Trump’s four-month war with Iran is welcome but brings with it hard truths. Mr. Trump made a terrible mistake starting this war. He prosecuted it recklessly and in open defiance of the law. The United States is emerging weaker — militarily, diplomatically and economically — and will pay strategic costs for years to come.

The details of the deal are unclear, but the announced framework suggests that Mr. Trump has won few of the terms he insisted that he would. It is a humiliating comedown for him and the nation he leads.

Since the war began, he has said the United States would achieve “total and complete victory” and that Iran must agree to “unconditional surrender.” He suggested that regime change would occur. He said that Iran would be permitted “no enrichment” of uranium and that “the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried” near-bomb-grade nuclear material that it already holds.

None of this appears to be true. Iran’s hard-line government remains in place. The specifics of the nuclear agreement will apparently be negotiated over the next two months, but the terms seem likely to resemble those of a 2015 deal that President Barack Obama negotiated and that Mr. Trump canceled in 2018. He described the Obama agreement as the “worst deal ever” and said it put Iran on “a route to a nuclear weapon.” He criticized it for failing to force Iran to stop supporting terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and for loosening economic sanctions. Yet his destructive war seems likely to leave him with a similar deal.

His biggest achievement in the cease-fire framework is the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic, which will eventually reduce the prices of energy and other goods. That, of course, is merely a reversion to the prewar status quo. Iran closed the strait in retaliation, to damage the global economy and increase political pressure on the United States. The move worked, and Iran’s leaders now understand that they hold a powerful economic weapon.

On balance, Iran emerges the strategic winner of the four-month war. It did suffer substantial losses, including much of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the war’s first day. With the war ending, however, Iran’s leadership can begin rebuilding.

The United States, for its part, looks weaker in the eyes of the world. The American military has shown itself unable to quash a much smaller opponent even as it burned through many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The outcome damages this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin to repair the damage, the United States would be wise to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that have been frayed by the war’s military and economic effects. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. Neither is likely to happen under President Trump.

Before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28, Iran’s leadership had endured a miserable two and a half years. The government was far weaker than it had been before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, which Iran has long funded and advised. In response to that attack, Israel significantly diminished Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy group. In Syria, a murderous, Iran-backed dictator fell while Iran’s leaders did little to save him. Israel and the United States exposed Iran’s air defenses and missile program as paper tigers when they bombed Iranian nuclear sites last summer, setting back its program. All the while, Iran’s currency continued to plummet, and its economy was in ruins. Starting late last year, Iranians took to the streets to protest, and the regime responded by killing thousands of them, if not tens of thousands.

All these problems remain, and Iran is still weaker than it was three years ago. But the war has given it leverage it did not have when 2026 began. Its regime has demonstrated that it can survive waves of attacks from its two biggest enemies. Its leaders have not had to abandon their nuclear ambitions. And they have learned that the rest of the world seems unwilling to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran chooses to close the strait at some point in the coming months or years, what will Mr. Trump do in response?

We lay out these facts with no pleasure. Iran has been and remains a force for ill. It represses its own people, especially political dissidents, women, L.G.B.T.Q. people and religious minorities. It is a world leader in torture and executions, and it has financed terrorism in its region and far beyond. Iran’s leaders have impoverished a country where per capita income was above the global average as recently as the 1970s.

The regime’s distinct brutality should have been reason for the United States to think carefully and plan cautiously for any war. The history of modern American wars, particularly in Iran’s region, is full of hubris that incubated defeat. Yet Mr. Trump eschewed thoughtful planning at every step.

He accepted the rose-colored assessment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who predicted that the Iranian regime would quickly fall. Mr. Trump dismissed the views of his aides who told him that Mr. Netanyahu’s forecast was farcical. Mr. Trump ignored the Constitution and refused to seek congressional approval for the war. He did not listen to European and Asian allies who opposed his war. He failed to plan for Iran’s obvious ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. He made threats about destroying Iranian civilization that succeeded only in diminishing America’s moral standing.

For his sins, he has now agreed to a peace framework that the entire world understands is a defeat for him. It is a setback for America, too.

23 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Ono sto vidim da su u Izraelu poludeli na Trampa. Govore o izdaji Amerike, da su ih ostavili u losijim polozaju itd.

Pa i jesu u gorem položaju...

Niko ih ne voli, ugrobarili su Izrael za dug period, javno mjenje se u USA okrenulo protiv njih (videćemo da li će i koliko imati para da to peglaju, sulude cifre su ulagali u primeries)... Crkvenjaci po bible beltu pričaju kako su rasisti i mrze sve koji nisu Jevreji... Ostali su im Fox gledaoci i najzadrtiji ljubitelji Trumpa... Ako im i Trump okrene leđa, šta onda?

I još, poništili su nuklearni deal, i još najgore, shvatili da Iran ima džebane, da njihova odbrana od te džebane nije baš sjajna... I da kontrarevolucije (za sad) neće biti...

Israel asked the United States to share the contents of the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, but Washington refused the request.

Source: N12

On 15. 6. 2026. at 8:25, nautilus said:

Tramp i ekipa su ozbiljan skup s uma sišavših. Realno, sada su u goroj situaciji nego pre rata plus su se posvađali sa Izraelom pa Iran trlja ruke.

To je, zapravo, odlican rezultat za ceo svet.

Genocidna i aparthedj politika Izraela jos uvek nije kaznjena, ne zaboravimo.

1 hour ago, radisa said:

Pa i jesu u gorem položaju...

Niko ih ne voli, ugrobarili su Izrael za dug period, javno mjenje se u USA okrenulo protiv njih (videćemo da li će i koliko imati para da to peglaju, sulude cifre su ulagali u primeries)... Crkvenjaci po bible beltu pričaju kako su rasisti i mrze sve koji nisu Jevreji... Ostali su im Fox gledaoci i najzadrtiji ljubitelji Trumpa... Ako im i Trump okrene leđa, šta onda?

I još, poništili su nuklearni deal, i još najgore, shvatili da Iran ima džebane, da njihova odbrana od te džebane nije baš sjajna... I da kontrarevolucije (za sad) neće biti...

Prepotencija i pogresna procena.

Svi smo mislili da je Iran skroz obavestajno izbusen Sulejmani+Nasrala+pejdzeri+ubijali zvanicnike kako stignu+svercovali oruzje za pobunu.

Ispostavilo se da nije tako, vojni planovi fererali ako je zapisano a Hebolah zivahniji nego sto je iko mislio. Pisace se vec o tome sta je dovelo do ove pogresne izraelske procene.

Arogancija, uzasna arogancija i nepoznavanje Irana i trenutno i istorijski.... Plus, vrlo moguce da je dosta toga od obavestajnih podataka bilo netacno i podmetnuto...

Edited June 16Jun 16 by radisa

Mislim da je pre pogrešna analiza dobrih podataka. Ono wishfull thinking i paranoja da je Iran na dobrom putu da napravi bombu. Samo što nije. I sve će se rešiti ako zveknu 100 godina starog đeda i par budala okolo.

Svetom upravljaju debili.

To je svestan rizik I kocka u koju se upustaju. Kao Putin 22 ili na kraju krajeva Hitler napadom na SSSR. Vreme nije na nasoj strani, bolje sad rizikovati....

Bio je onaj iznenadjujuce dobar clanak u NYT I uvid sastanka Netanjahua I Barnee u Vasingtonu sa Trampom I ekipom. Tramp impresioniran planom Izraelaca dok mu dal sef CIAe ili neki general kaze Israelis are lying and overselling as usual. Svesna laz I rizik koji misle da se isplati

Edited June 16Jun 16 by dillinger

Da i ne slusanje i eliminacija profesionalaca u vrhu USA vlasti, ovo sto kaze Dilinger, samo jos gore...

Mislim da su i CIA i vrh vojske znali da je ovo ludost, ali da ih Trump iz nekog razloga (tek cemo cuti kog) nije hteo slusati...

9 minutes ago, dillinger said:

To je svestan rizik I kocka u koju se upustaju. Kao Putin 22 ili na kraju krajeva Hitler napadom na SSSR. Vreme nije na nasoj strani, bolje sad rizikovati....

Bio je onaj iznenadjujuce dobar clanak u NYT I uvid sastanka Netanjahua I Barnee u Vasingtonu sa Trampom I ekipom. Tramp impresioniran planom Izraelaca dok mu dal sef CIAe ili neki general kaze Israelis are lying and overselling as usual. Svesna laz I rizik koji misle da se isplati

Jeste, mislim da je CIA upozoravala po navodima medija ali pitanje koliko je to tacno.

Ista ta CIA sada upozorava, na osnovu njihovh podataka, da ovo sto radi nije dobro ali je on prituinut ekonomijom i slabim rejtingom presekao. Isto kao sto je uleteo u rat nakon Venecuele jer su mu prodali pricu kako ce isto proci u Iranu.

Treba reci da Izraelci izbacuju pricu da je Tramp odbio originalni izraelski plan da koristi Kurde u destabilizaiji Irana nakon intervencije Erdogana.

Edited June 16Jun 16 by Emerald

Pa ne nije rec o stavu CIAe koji nemam pojma kakav je. Poenta je da je bio neki sastanak u Beloj kuci ili tu negde, i da traje neko predavanje Netanjaua i Barnee (direktor Mosada jel) kako ce oni da izbombarduju Iran, kako imaju hiljadu agenata spavaca, kao Kurdi i opozicija samo sto nisu digli ustanak, kako ce se usetati u Teheran samo da im US da koju milijardu nosace no fly zone i spice will flow. Prica u koju ne veruju ni njeni kreatori niti oni koji je slusaju. Svi lazu i znaju da ovi drugi lazu ali opet krecu u ostvarenje tog sna

Nisu glupi i slepi vernici vec bolesni kockari.

Edited June 16Jun 16 by dillinger

1 hour ago, Budja said:

To je, zapravo, odlican rezultat za ceo svet.

If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.

jesu banda u Teheranu, ali su u DCu i Tel Avivu daleko opasniji i veći nitkovi.

Edited June 16Jun 16 by Gandalf

47 minutes ago, radisa said:

ali da ih Trump iz nekog razloga (tek cemo cuti kog)

Pazi, i Hitler je bio predmet sprdnje dok nije postao kancelar i preuzeo poluge moći. Čak su se i Jevreji sprdali sa stvarima iz Main Kampf i nisu verovali da je to moguće. Sreća pa ovaj imbecil ima 80 godina i nejasno je kako je i dalje živ.

14 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.

jesu banda u Teheranu, ali su u DCu i Tel Avivu daleko opasniji i veći nitkovi.

Vecina zapadnog sveta I dalje misli suprotno (Bibi I Tramp kreteni ali mule je bitno zatuci)

Edited June 16Jun 16 by dillinger