Ekonomija i Corona virus pandemija

[renne]

to

neće biti dodatnih kamata, sve ostaje kao da nije stoipirano

[vookela]

treba videti sta ce biti sa glavnicom i obracunom kamata, ocekujem uputstva ubrzo

[jms_uk]

Mejl od Inteze povodom trenutne situacije

 

[Mil@n]

Gazdarica dovoljno uljudna da zamrzne plaćanje kirije...

[Anonymous]

To je sjajno. Moj drugar ima hostel u knezu, pukao sad najstrašnije i čekaju ga pregovori za isto.

 

Moja priča je kontra, izdajem stan i živ nisam da vidim šta će me sačekati u aprilu. Da imam luksuz da im oprostim kiriju bih to uradio, ali nemam.

 

[Mil@n]

Pošto imam 4 sony-ja baciću se na iznajmljivanje, sa obzirom da neću imati rashoda i sl, ako bih izdao 1 na dan moglo bi ovo ispasti sasvim ok sa finansijske strane... Sa obzirom da neću imati neke posebne rashode osim default troškova u lokalu, koliko li će to već da izađe, struja, net. 

[Svarog]

IT startup za koji radim danas objavio da otpušta 50 ljudi worldwide. što nam je skoro 50% ljudstva. bili smo u sred pregovora za sledeću rundu finansiranja, i sve je to lepo išlo do juče ujutru kada su se svi VC fondovi javili i rekli da do kraja ovog celog sranja neće nigde ništa investirati. ovi moji se preračunali ko je kritičan za funkcionisanje firme i sve ostalo na doboš. biće tu nekih otpremnina, sindikalnih pregovaranja u zemlji gde nam je HQ... ali u roku od mesec dana bićemo prepolovljeni. moj tim i ja za sada preživeli. 

 

vest iz druge ruke za IT firmu iz Beograda koja je radila uglavnom kao outsourcing za USA, lepi poslovi i lepe parice... otpustili ovih dana ~20 ljudi zbog otkazanih projekata/klijenata.

 

drugarica radi kao project manager u Torontu, u IT odeljenju firme koja se bavi turizmom... otpušteno 70 ljudi od oko 200 ukupno, iz raznih odeljenja.

 

bogami, počelo jako.

 

opet se vraćam na nešto što sam valjda još na prvoj strani pitao - kako će post-Corona svet funkcionisati u kontekstu ekonomije i investicija? jbt, ako su (jedva) 2 nedelje bez prihoda isekle ovoliko biznisa i firmi... neko tu ozbiljno treba da preispita ceo biznis koncept. previše toga je na staklenim nogama i gorivo mu je "potencijal" ili neki model koji ima soft spot bez ikakve alternative.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Svarog

[onamonamo]

ako si IT nemas sta da se brines, posla ce uvek biti....sada investitori oklevaju sta da rade sa parama, ali pre ili kasnije ce da ih ulazu negde, a tu IT nece ostati kratak

[Svarog]

hoće, ulagaće.

al imam neki gut feeling da će to ići drugačije nego sad. konzervantivnije.

ima dosta tekstove kako je još prošle godine krenuo polako da splašnjava entuzijazam berze čak i za tzv unicorn startape. (npr https://techxplore.com/news/2019-09-office-startup-wework-valuation-ipo.html).

nije bubble, daleko od toga. ali...

 

naravno da će za IT biti posla. svet će nastaviti da ide ka sveobuhvatnoj digitalizaciji. ali, opet, pitanje je kako će to izgledati.

[Goranz]

1 hour ago, Mil@n said:

Gazdarica dovoljno uljudna da zamrzne plaćanje kirije...

 

Bar neke lepe vesti.

[onamonamo]

evo pogled iz jedne usa firme

 

Spoiler

Firstly, X staff are all working, and working remotely. We don’t have any known cases of the virus among our staff, and we should be at as close to 100% capacity as possible, given of course that we are not able to have in person discussions and so on. We will be able to process payments, transactions, and everything else to keep your income flowing normally.

There is near certainty the world is heading for a global recession. This has both a supply shock (factories are closed) and a demand shock (people are reducing their buying, there will be no travel/entertainment spending, and few purchases of durable goods will be made like sofas, cars, etc., that people don’t have to buy). The global economy should recover much more quickly than the Great Recession, but we are in unknown territory for what will happen between now and when the virus has played out.

Up until last week, X saw no impact on sales other than China, which was down significantly and is now coming back, although relatively, China is not a huge part of our sales. We routinely forecast our revenue (including growth), and started seeing some numbers below that forecast starting last Thursday, March 12th. It’s too soon to know what this means because of the massive transition to working from home for so many people, and the consumption of news and distractions from work we are all dealing with.

Any fluctuations in your sales before March 12 should be just randomness in the market. If you are seeing anything catastrophic or significant, it is highly probable that it is just randomness in the data. This always pains us, but somebody is always having the worst month of sales they’ve ever had, while somebody else is having the best month. For the marketplace as a whole, Monday ended up 8% below our forecast. As I’m writing, Tuesday is up over forecast. Asia is doing well, Europe is down, and the US is way down.

All of this is to say that there are many moving parts, but in the coming months we all have to expect our sales to decline from what we expected. We are watching everything that we can, but that is the most likely reality.

Some good news is that our partners in China tell us that life is pretty much back to normal. Everyone wears masks at work, and you can eat-in at restaurants. That was after a 2-month lockdown with an extremely effective and powerful central government that has little friction in getting what they need done. The democratic structures of many Western governments will not be as effective, and the virus will likely take longer to get under control. But it will get there.

More good news is that all of us here do computer-based work, and we will not see a total collapse. Some industries should be fine (games), and some will stop (movies will have a hard time shooting, for example). When these slowdowns will hit is anyone’s guess… movies in post-production can probably continue, for example, but that pipeline will only last so long. The X customer base is extremely diverse, including more than half of the Fortune 100 companies. But people will be very budget conscious. There is no way to predict the timing here.

A blessing to hold on to is that our community is better positioned than most. All of the staff are grateful for that, and I have received messages that many of you feel lucky in the same way. I think about everyone that depends on X, and we want to be there to help us all go through this as safely and securely as possible.

X survived Hurricane Katrina here in our home city in Y, and this is extremely similar in many ways, but at global scale. We will get through it, and life will resume normally, but we will live life day by day and then week by week for a long time without knowing what is next. “Corona” and “COVID” will become terms we are unbelievably tired of hearing and talking about. Everyone will have an impact, and it will be something we all have in common. Sooner or later, though, we will be on the other side of it.

 

[mraki]

5 hours ago, Mil@n said:

Gazdarica dovoljno uljudna da zamrzne plaćanje kirije...

To je lepo, i verujem da će biti masovno kad su lokali u pitanju, nije da ih imaju sad kome drugom izdati. Stanovi su ipak malo druga priča, ali mogle bi ozbiljno padati cene.

Biće ekonomska katastrofa ako se ovo oduži...

Edited March 18, 2020 by mraki

[borris_]

Da li postoje negdje studije kako se ekonomija oporavljala poslije prijašnjih epidemija (prvenstveno mislim na epidemije iz prošlih vjekova)?

[mraki]

Ako i postoji, teško da je to uporedivo sa današnjom ekonomijom.

[Mr.Mxyzptlk]

hoce li spustiti malo cene infostana, struje i ostalih zajebancija...