Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Gandalf]

it's the end of the world as we know it...China urged the United States to spare no effort to stabilise its economy and financial markets to help avert a global recession.. . .And then you bore into the meat of the story and you see a Chinese leader talking about the need for Washington to ?guarantee the safety of China?s assets and investments in the US.? Heck, the whole last century, going back to the days of the United Fruit Company, has been about Washington telling other governments to ?guarantee the safety? of American assets and investments in their countries.

Edited December 4, 2008 by Gandalf

[Gandalf]

jako interesantno -> Balance Sheet Recessions: Japan

http://dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2008/DR110508.htmlRichard C. Koo has prepared a remarkable report: "The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions - What Post-2008 US, Europe and Japan Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005."His argument is not far from the one we made six years ago. In the 1980s, Japan ran up stock and property prices in a spree of debt and leverage. Then, when the bubble popped, the usual monetary stimulus didn't work. The Bank of Japan cut rates to almost zero?still, few people were willing to borrow.The economy did not recover; instead, it got worse and worse until 2005 - 15 years later - when stocks had lost 72% of their value, land was down 81%, and golf course memberships had sunk 95% from their peak.The problem, he explains, was that it was a "balance sheet recession," not a typical business cycle downturn. Companies, banks, and individuals had to pay down the debt that they had accumulated in the boom; they did not want to borrow more money, even at zero interest rates. For 7 years, from 1998 to 2005, net business borrowing went negative - meaning, businesses were paying off more debt than they were taking on.This came as a shock to modern economists. Japanese officials were flummoxed. U.S. economists accused them of not acting swiftly enough?or not having the stomach to let the big banks fail. But almost no one seemed to understand what was really going on. They should have. Irving Fisher described it back in 1933, observing that when people who are deeply in debt get into trouble they usually sell assets. He called it a "stampede to liquidity." Investors dump stocks and property for any price they can get - desperate to pay off their debts before they are dragged into bankruptcy.This is the phenomenon known to economists as the "fallacy of composition." What is good for every individual investor - cutting expenses, paying off debt - turns out to be bad for the economy itself. Asset prices fall. Sales fall. Unemployment rises. The slump deepens.In Japan's case, combined capital losses from land and stocks grew from 1990 until 2002, at which time they reached $15 trillion - or 3 years worth of Japan's GDP.You can do the math yourself, dear reader. America's GDP is about $14 trillion. Multiply that times three and you get $42 trillion. So far, the U.S. has lost about $4 or $5 trillion in housing prices?and maybe another $6 trillion in stocks, for a total of about $11 trillion, maximum. A long way to go?

Edited December 6, 2008 by Gandalf

[Budja]

jako interesantno -> Balance Sheet Recessions: Japan

Pitanja koja bih postavio autoru:Da li se moze slica analogija uspostaviti i u vezi oporavka?15 godina +, s obzirom na jos uvek stagnirajucu japansku ekonomiju.Sa druge strane vidimo da je, recimo, Nemacka nize u ciklusu (Exhibit 24). Za Fransusku se ne kaze. Kakav ce to uticaj imati na odnos evro/dolar i status dolara kao prve rezervne valute (oil denominator) koja SAD daje znacajno veci kapacitet zaduzivanja? Da li je taj rizik veliki ili ne? I na kraju, da li se sustina price (Exhibit 24) znacajno menja ako se ima vidu da su SAD uletele u recesiju ne samo sa velikim privatnim dugom vec i znacajnim budzetskim deficitom i da restriktivna monetarna politika nije bila okidac za krizu?

[Yonkers United]

Vrlo zanimljivo, http://www.cnbc.com/id/28067738

Edited December 8, 2008 by Yonkers United

[No7]

Veselo, veselo...

Uhapšen bivši predsednik "Nasdaka" zbog 50 milijardiBivši predsednik njujorške elektronske berze "Nasdak" (Nasdaq) Bernard Medof uhapšen je pod sumnjom da je svoje berzanske klijente oštetio za oko 50 milijardi dolara, objavile su danas svetske novinske agencije. Medof (70), koji je bio jedan od najuglednijih brokera na Volstritu, vodio je za svoje berzanske klijente takozanu Ponzi šemu, finansijski pandan piramidalnoj štednji, u kojoj je, tokom dužeg vremenskog perioda, izgubljeno rekordnih oko 50 milijardi dolara, saopštilo je američko ministarstvo pravde. Skandal je izbio u javnost pošto su agenti FBI pretražili Medofov stan, a on sam, prema pisanju agencije Blumberg, priznao istražnim organima da je učinio krivično delo koje mu se stavlja na teret. Izvor upoznat sa istragom je za CNN izjavio da se Medof već pojavio pred sudom i da mu je određena kaucija od 10 miliona dolara, koja je plaćena, tako da je on pušten da se brani sa slobode. Medof se, kako navode agencije, bavio konsultantskim uslugama nezavisno od svoje brokerske kuće "Bernar L. Medof investment sekjuritis", koju je osnovao još 1960. godine i koja je imala klijente iz celog sveta. Prema navodima krivične prijave, dvoje zaposlenih u Medofovoj brokerskoj kući su istražnim organima rekli da je njihov šef vodio konsultantski posao iz posebne kancelarije, a da je finansijske podatke i dokumentaciju čuvao "pod ključem". U prijavi se navodi i da se u dokumentu, koji je Medof ranije ove godine predao Komisiji za hartije od vrednosti i berzu, navodi da je on u konsultantskom poslu imao između 11 i 25 klijenata, za koje je na berzi trgovao imovinom u vrednosti od oko 17,1 milijardu dolara. On je, međutim, kasnije priznao da je sva ta trgovina predstavljala prevaru, jer se, u stvari, radilo o finansijskoj piramidi, pri čemu je u tom "poslu" izgubljeno oko 50 milijardi dolara. Ukoliko Medof bude proglašen krivim, prema američkim zakonima, može biti osuđen na zatvor u trajanju od 20 godina i novčanu kaznu od pet miliona dolara.

http://www.blic.rs/svet.php?id=69725

[No7]

Bas sada gledan na Yahoo Dow Jones i pao je 1.53% na pocetku radnog dana,

Senat stopirao pomoć autoindustriji11:23 | Izvor: TanjugVašington/Njujork -- Predlog državne pomoći od 14 milijardi dolara proizvođačima vozila iz Detroita, koji je prošao Kongres, noćas nije usvojen i u Senatu. Predlog paketa mera za spasavanje posrnule autoindustrije, koji su podneli demokratski kongresmeni, ostao je bez dovoljne podrške već u proceduralnom izjašnjavanju senatora. Smatra se da bi kolaps američke autoindustrije doveo do gubitka više miliona radnih mesta i da je ona jedan od osnovnih stubova američke ekonomije.Predstavnici Demokratske partije u Kongresu i Bela kuća već nekoliko dana su vodili razgovore o donošenju paketa hitnih mera pomoći posrnuloj automobilskoj industriji, kako bi sprečili propast "detroitske trojke", "Dženeral motorsa", "Forda i "Krajslera"."Dženeral motors" (GM) i "Krajsler" troše poslednje zalihe svežeg novca za svakodnevno poslovanje. GM može da izdrži još oko tri sedmice, dok "Ford" tvrdi da "još može da čeka", prenele su agencije.Tokom novembra je američka privreda izgubila više od 530.000 radnih mesta, a strahuje se da, bez hitne pomoći, ne bi mogao da se zaustavi kolaps tri proizvođača automobila i spase oko 350.000 radnika u američkoj autoindustriji i miliona drugih koji zavise od nje.Problemi s kojima se suočava američka auto-industrija "prelili" su se i izvan granica SAD, pa je italijanski "Fijat" saopštio da je "suviše mali da bi mogao da preživi sam", a švedska najavila da priprema paket za izlazak iz krize dve njene kompanije "Volvo" i "Saab", koje su u vlasništvu američkih korporacija.Krah automobilske industrije, koja je koncentrisana u Detroitu, obogaljio bi čitavu američku ekonomiju, saglasni su američki analitičari.Kolumnista "Biznis vika" Ed Valas ocenjuje da je rasprava koja se vodi u Kongresu o pružanju pomoći Detroitu da se izvuče iz škripca zapravo rasprava o budućnosti američke industrije.U svetskoj finansijskoj krizi, velika automobilaska "trojka" iz Detroita - "Dženeral motors" (GM), "Ford" i "Krajsler" - našla se u situaciji da nije u stanju da proda dovoljno vozila da bi opstala do potencijalno svetlije budućnosti.Na osnovu onoga što se može pročitati u štampi, čuti u Kongresu i što govore pojedini američki stručnjaci, odgovor nacije mogao bi se svesti na "Koga je briga?", navodi Valas, napominjući da Amerikanci i te kako treba da brinu.Navodeći da "velika trojka" ima mnogo prodavaca i punktove u delovima zemlje kojima njeni japanski konkurenti - "Nisan", "Honda" ili "Tojota" - "ne mogu ni da priđu", Volas upozorava da bi se, ako bi Detroit nestao, to dramatično odrazilo na američki agroindustrijski kompleks.Detroit ima snažno prisustvo širom velikog američkog Srednjeg zapada. U federalnim državama poput Kanzasa prodajna mreža GM-a postoji u najmanje 54 okruga, dok se "Tojotina" može naći u svega osam.Realnost je da će posle nekoliko setvenih sezona, pod uslovom da su cene poljoprivrednih kultura na tržištu sirovina razumne, prodaje novih pik-ap kamiona za samo jedan dan doneti Detroitu više novca nego svi "ševroleti" koji će možda biti proizvedeni, a možda i neće, ukazuje Valas.Valas zaključuje da bi propast industrije u Detroitu koštala SAD "daleko više nego njeno spašavanje - a kolateralna šteta bila bi daleko teža nego što je iko dosad mogao da zamisli"."Dovde nas je dovelo 28 godina novih vladinih pravila koja su išla u pravcu kapitalizma tipa 'sve može' - i taj brend ne bi trebalo nikad brkati sa američkim kapitalizmom, u kome zakoni štite kupca i prodavca i čije poslove karakterišu integritet, poštenje i razum," ističe analitičar.Ocenivši da, ako bi se dozvolio krah Detroita, možda neće moći da se zaustavi "lavina koja već čitavu godinu sahranjuje ljude i firme", Valas upozorava da bi se time ugrozila i sama Amerika.

Veselo, veselo...

[borris_]

I amerikanci imaju svog Jezdu (a ko ce biti dafina ). 50 milijardi dolara hebote :o

Bernard Madoff arrested and charged with fraud Friday December 12nd, 2008 / 0h45 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bernard Madoff, a Wall Street trader who founded Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, was arrested and charged on Thursday with allegedly running a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme, U.S. authorities said.Federal prosecutors accused Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, of running a Ponzi scheme -- a pyramid-type swindle in which very high returns are promised to early investors, who are paid off with money put up by later investors.Madoff, who estimated investors' losses at about $50 billion, informed senior employees of his advisory firm on Wednesday that "it's all just one big lie" and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme," according to a criminal complaint against him.Madoff, 70, allegedly ran the advisory business from within the broker dealer that bears his name. He was charged with a single count of securities fraud and faces up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to $5 million, according to prosecutors."Madoff stated that the business was insolvent, and that it had been for years. Madoff also stated that he estimated the losses from this fraud to be at least approximately $50 billion," Lev Dassin, the acting United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in a statement.Authorities said that, according to a document filed by Madoff with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on January 7, 2008, Madoff's investment advisory business served between 11 and 25 clients and had a total of about $17.1 billion in assets under management."Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry. We will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events," Madoff's lawyer Dan Horwitz told reporters outside a downtown Manhattan courtroom where he was arraigned.Madoff himself appeared shaken and stared down at ground as reporters peppered him with questions. A long time fixture of New York's financial markets, Madoff was released on his own recognizance after posting a $10 million bond secured by his Manhattan apartment.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also filed civil charges against Madoff."Our complaint alleges a stunning fraud -- both in terms of scope and duration. We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the scheme and protect the remaining assets for investors," said Scott Friestad, the SEC's deputy enforcer.(Additional reporting by Christian Plumb, Phil Wahba, Michelle Nichols in New York and Rachelle Younglai in Washington; Editing by Andre Grenon)By Edith Honan

[Dankan Ajdaho]

Ovaj državni kapitalizam mi se sve više sviđa. :)

[Muwan]

Na spisku ožalošćenih investitora su navodno Santander, BNP Paribas, HSBC, RBS, Nomura, Fairfield Greenwich, Kingate Management...

[balu]

Bravo majstori i bravo majstore! Alal vera na plajvaz!

[Gandalf]

interesantno...The bottom line is this: we are being asked to believe that a big, trillion or even multi-trillion fiscal stimulus can boost the current macroeconomy. If you look at history, there isn't good reason to believe that. Any single example, such as the Nazis, can be knocked down for lack of relevance or lack of correspondence to current conditions.http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginal...l-policy-a.html

[Venom]

Nemam pojma da li je ovaj tip Schiff u pravu, mada deluje tako, ali mi je potpuno fascinantan. Upravo sam poslushao podcast, u stvari, josh slusham, ali chovek pricha bez prestanka vec 20 minuta i josh je nalozeniji nego na TV-u. Kralj .

[Budja]

Jos jedan bailout u Britaniji nakon sto se oktrivaju enormni gubici na kraju godine.Bailout mozda i u stotinama milijardi funti.Royal Bank of Scotland cena akcije 12p. Bila je 6 funti u martu.

[UrosDC]

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflas...ws+%2B+analysisGoldman Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius ima odlicno resenje za ekonomiju, a i Krugman ga citira "Ordinarily when the economy slows, the Federal Reserve can juice it up by cutting short-term interest rates to below the rate of inflation, meaning that in inflation-adjusted terms, rates are actually negative. For example, if inflation is running at 6% per year and interest rates are at 4%, the "real" rate is negative 2%. Negative real rates entice people to borrow money for consumption or investment, which gets the economy going again and soaks up unemployed workers and equipment.""The solution is obvious: The Fed needs to deliberately raise the rate of inflation?maybe not all the way to 6%, but significantly above zero.One way to do that is to print lots of money. The Fed can create money from thin air by purchasing assets such as Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and paying for them by crediting the seller with newly created reserves at the central bank."

[borris_]

U francuskoj je Sarkozy dao bankama da odluce: ili dodjeluju bonuse (za menadzere) i tom slucaju ne treba da ocekuju pomoc drzave ili dobijaju drzavnu pomoc ali mogu se oprostiti od bonusa.Cr?dit Agricole i Soc gen ne zele da odustanu od bonusa ali bi ipak htjele drzavnu pomoc.