Španija i Katalonija

[Budja]

Just now, Lancia said:

Evo lider ERC-a daje ultimatum Spancima, ili Katalunja ili VOX.

 

To pokusava da spase "independisticki" obraz Rufian, ne bih tome davao mnogo znacaja u ovom trenutku.

[vememah]

Tri katalonske stranke veliki gubitnici izbora, zbirno izgubile preko 700 hiljada glasova, tj. 43% u odnosu na prošle izbore.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by vememah

[Lancia]

Just now, Budja said:

 

To pokusava da spase "independisticki" obraz Rufian, ne bih tome davao mnogo znacaja u ovom trenutku.

Naravno, neko ko je izgubio 6 mesta, ne bi trebalo da bude toliko drcan.

PP sebe racuna u pobednika, nigde ne pominje VOX, kazu da stranka koja nije pobedila, ne bi trebalo da da premijera.

[borris_]

171 - 171

 

Katalonci najavili podrsku samo u slucaju ustupaka. 

[Bojan]

Katalonci su izgubili u broju poslanika. Ali jedan deo njihovih glasača nije izašao na izbore. Nemaju razloga da se uzbuđuju. Čini se da ih nije mnogo briga da li će Sančez ostati u fotelji. A i sa ovoliko poslanika su bitan faktor.

 

Sančez po rezultatima može komotno da proglasi pobedu. A i da ide na nove izbore, negde u septembru, ne bi loše napravio. Svakako je odradio dobar posao.

 

PP i VOX nemaju više od 170. Ostaje im da se pitaju zašto su PSOE i Sumar imali trend rasta pred same izbore.

[Bojan]

 

[Bojan]

[Bojan]

 

[Bojan]

 

[Bojan]

 

[vememah]

 

https://elpais.com/

[vememah]

Apsolutno sve ankete obavljene na izborni dan su debelo (najmanje za 2,6 procentnih poena) promašile rezultat PSOE, da ne govorimo o onima odranije.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election

Edited July 24, 2023 by vememah

[vememah]

Quote

The surprise and frustration on display at PP headquarters on Génova street in Madrid was in stark contrast to the uncontainable joy at PSOE headquarters on Ferraz street. Despite the left’s electoral defeat, which Feijóo will try to exploit to demand that the Socialists abstain in order to let him govern, Sánchez has achieved something that seemed impossible less than two months ago, when he decided to take the umpteenth leap into the void by bringing forward the general elections right after the leftist debacle of the regional and municipal elections of May 28: to improve his 2019 results in votes — more than 700,000 — and in seats — two more — and be able to dream of a parliamentary majority that would be even more complex than the current one but not impossible. The Socialists believe that an abstention by Junts could be enough to obtain a majority greater than that of the PP with Vox and the support of UPN and Coalición Canaria, two small parties from Navarre and the Canary Islands, respectively.

The resulting situation in Congress following Sunday’s vote is very complex, almost impossible to solve. The possibility of deadlock is a fact, although the disaster of the last repeat election, in 2019, may serve as an antidote to avoid that temptation. At the moment there are two possible majorities, based on what each of the parties has been saying, although there are many weeks of complex negotiations ahead.

On the one hand, there is the most obvious one, that of the PP with Vox, UPN and Coalición Canaria, a party that many associate with the PP because they are governing with them in the islands. But this sum remains at 171 seats, far from the absolute majority that Feijóo had dreamed of and which many polls took for granted in recent weeks.

The other possible majority is that of the PSOE with Sumar, which has managed to hold on to 31 seats — United We Can had 35 — although it has fallen 20,000 votes short of third place, which once again goes to Vox. To them would have to be added, as it has now, the votes of the PNV, the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC), the far-left Basque Bildu party and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), something that seems feasible for an investiture vote, although it is always complex. These groups total 172 seats, one more than the 171 of the PP bloc.

But here the decisive key would be held by Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan premier who pushed forward an illegal independence referendum, then fled to Belgium to avoid prosecution. In this formula, Sánchez would not need the affirmative vote of Junts to become the next prime minister, something difficult to imagine, but an abstention would be enough.

Still, it is an even more complex majority than the current one, so there is still a long match ahead to clarify which of the two options could prevail or whether the deadlock leads to new elections. “We will not make Pedro Sánchez the PM in exchange for nothing,” warned Miriam Nogueras, head of the Junts list, on election night. The pro-independence parties may be decisive, but their results in Catalonia have been disastrous for them. A total of nine seats have been lost in these elections, which have gone particularly well for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC).

https://english.elpais.com/spain/2023-07-23/in-spain-the-lefts-resistance-thwarts-a-pp-vox-majority-and-leaves-all-possibilities-open.html

Edited July 24, 2023 by vememah

[Bojan]

Feijoo najavio da će ići na sastavljanje vlade. Ali sa VOX-om neće gotovo niko. Jedino da drži VOX po strani (van vlade, kao manjinsku podršku), a da proba da pregovara sa regionalnim strankama. Definitivno je koaliranje PP sa VOX u nekim regijama i razmahivanje Voxa sa svojom agendom (porodica, vera, nacija, antigej, antimuslim, nasilje nad ženama ne postoji i slično) uticalo na mobilizaciju suprotne strane. VOX ipak mora da se drži na distanci i da ako bilo gde uđe u vlast ne poteže osetljiva pitanja oko kojih postoji odijum javnosti. To će Feijoo sada verovatno pokušati da uradi. Naravno, prvi korak mu je da izgladi neke unutarpartijske sukobe (sa Ayuso Diaz), što je odmah i krenuo. Jer on je, pred izbore, sebe već video u fotelji premijera.

 

Ako bi PSOE sastavljao vladu, situacija je jednostavnija. Sančez bi imao podršku svih dosadašnjih partnera, ali bi mu pored toga trebala i podrška Juntsa (Pućdemonova stranka). Junts je najavio da neće dati podršku bez nekog opipljivog ustupka.

[vememah]

Podsećanja radi, prošli put su od Katalonaca Puđdemonovi (tada su se zvali JxCat) i CUP glasali protiv, dok su ERP bili uzdržani uz Baske (18 njih) pa je Sančez u drugom krugu izabran ispotpolovičnom tj. relativnom većinom sa svega 2 glasa više od onih koji su glasali protiv (167-165) i 9 manje od apsolutne većine. U prvom (166-165) je bila neophodna apsolutna većina.

 

Sada nije dovoljno da se Puđdemonovi pridruže apstinentima jer Sančez nema ni relativnu većinu ako neko ga od onih koji su bili uzdržani prošlog puta sad ne podrži.