Prospero Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US–EU and US–UK relationships TIM OLIVER AND MICHAEL JOHN WILLIAMS https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/ia/special-relationships-flux-brexit-and-future-us-eu-and-us-uk-relationships ... The United States’ relationship with the UK and the rest of Europe remains one defined by shared ideas, deeply entwined economic and security interests, well-established institutional arrangements, common international problems, and individual leaders and elites who remain Atlanticist in outlook. In the uncertain world that it faces, the US government would prefer the states of the North Atlantic to continue to work closely together on issues of international peace and security. A British departure from the EU would complicate these relations, but not undermine them unless it were compounded by other crises and changes to both the EU and the United States that have the potential to drive them apart. It is the UK that has the most to lose from Brexit, becoming a country whose unity could be thrown into question and one that would have to work harder to affect changes in the wider transatlantic relationship. In such a situation the United States could find its closest ally becoming an awkward inbetweener, dependent on how the larger US–EU relationship moves forward. Nevertheless, there is no escaping the fact that the role of Britain in the EU is important to the United States, to US–EU cooperation and to the wider transatlantic relationship. Despite this, British political debate rarely considers the implications that the referendum result could have on wider European and transatlantic security, and economic and political arrangements. While we envision relations remaining cordial, albeit with the UK as an awkward inbetweener, we set out below three possible scenarios for the United States—the good, the bad and the ugly—that could occur, depending on how the referendum result mixes with other pressures. The good ... The best scenario for the United States and stable transatlantic relations is one where the British people vote to remain in the EU, with the UK–EU renegotiation and referendum followed by a sustained effort by the UK government to rebuild relations with an EU for which the ‘British Question’ has been an unwanted distraction from other matters. Should a new EU treaty emerge, the UK would be in a stronger position to push for changes that strengthen the Union while ensuring the UK remains an active member inside it rather than pushing for changes from the outside. For the United States, this option preserves the EU’s foremost Atlanticist power as a part of Europe’s predominant organization for economics, politics and non-military security. It could also help ensure that the EU focuses not only on domestic European matters but also on issues outside the EU, especially in its near abroad. A UK engaging with its European partners would also help show that isolationism and populism have their limits in national discourse and thus decision-making. ... the bad ... UK–EU relations muddle through, with a referendum result either to stay in or to leave not leading to any clear and settled relationship. Animosity persists on both sides, particularly between UK and EU leaders who feel aggrieved at the renegotiation and referendum result. Neither side is willing to do more than make the minimal commitment to a functional relationship. For the United States, Britain would retain an important place in transatlantic relations, but now as an awkward inbetweener, dependent on developments in the larger US–EU relationship. Any effort by the UK to play the part of a transatlantic arbitrator would find some footing in the context of NATO and traditional military matters, although even here the United States would be aware that the future of NATO, EU enlargement and EU foreign policy rested more with Germany. Britain’s attempts at leadership might be welcomed by some Republicans, but would be extremely difficult— and probably fiercely resisted by the EU and its member states—in areas such as economics and wider political relations where Washington will be conscious of the need to pay attention to the wider EU and, again, in particular Germany. The United States would have to work around Britain in its wider relations with the EU. Both the UK and the EU would remain difficult partners for the United States in dealings with Asia. ... and the ugly A British exit leads to a severe deterioration in UK–EU relations. A UK that is denied some privileged external relationship with the EU could be tempted to act as a spoiler in any efforts at NATO–EU cooperation, particularly if the rest of the EU tried to develop in a more united way. There are precedents for such an outcome, as is evident from the course of NATO–EU relations regarding Turkey, Greece and Cyprus, for example—a long-running headache for US approaches to south-eastern Europe. A particularly ugly scenario would see Brexit unleash centrifugal forces that begin the unravelling of the EU. Here the place of Germany would be key, with Brexit triggering some form of German crisis of confidence in the EU. More likely Brexit would lead to the UK’s fragmentation, with Scotland leaving the UK to rejoin the EU and a resurgence of violence in Northern Ireland, while the businesses and inhabitants of the international and European metropolis of London were left feeling resentful towards the rest of the UK. The United States would be faced with the fallout from the fragmentation of one of its closest allies. Should a Brexit lead to EU disintegration, then weaknesses and divisions in Europe would be likely to invite Russian meddling in central Europe; it is even possible that the Kremlin might put pressure on some former Soviet territories such as the Baltic republics. In this case, Washington would have serious questions to answer about how to respond to such a crisis. Given its preoccupation with the Asia–Pacific region, coupled with extreme frustration about the ability of Europeans to manage European problems, the US might decide to allow for a new status quo in Europe, preferring to divert its own energies to Asia rather than continue to subscribe to a declining Europe that is seemingly unable to function as a cogent actor in international relations. Washington would also be extremely alert to the potential for Brexit to make the EU less accommodating to US and Atlantic priorities—if the EU did not collapse, of course. US policy-makers would be conscious of what such developments would say about US power and the potential effect it could have on isolationist elements in their domestic politics. Other world powers might interpret further tensions within NATO and a fragmenting or weakened EU as a sign of the deterioration of two of the major institutions to whose creation and development the United States has committed itself since the Second World War. There is, in short, no good outcome for the United States resulting from a British decision to leave the EU. Some British Eurosceptics might dream of Britain becoming a North Atlantic Singapore or a ‘Switzerland with nukes’, neglecting the fact that Singapore and Switzerland play minor roles in regional politics and are ultimately subject to regional politics rather than shapers of it. British debate about the EU has too often ignored the benefits of EU membership and the complexities of withdrawal, with certain elements indicating a yearning for some sort of imperial past that is long over. The crisis of British membership in the EU is in part a result of a changing EU, but is also one that British politicians have exaggerated over the past several decades. This is not to say that there are not serious issues with the governance and direction of the EU. These, however, are problems which the United States has a clear interest in seeing addressed, from which the UK cannot escape, and which a Brexit has the potential to make worse rather than help solve. Link to comment
Tribun_Populi Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Je li Borise, šta misle Francuzi o BrExitu? Jel sve najbolje? Link to comment
borris_ Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Englezi nasi strai prijatelji. :D Ovi sto su protiv evrope navijaju za Borisa dok su ostaliprotiv BrExit-a. Ovdje imamo drugih problema trenutno tako da to nije glavna tema za sada. Link to comment
Dr Arslanagić Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 +1 Štrajkovi, poplave a sad će i EP... Treba preživeti sledećih mesec dana. Link to comment
dragance Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Samo Marina i par ostalih strančica mogu da profitiraju BrExitom. Za divno čudo, ako mlitavi Hollande istraje u svojim reformama, koje kasne jedno 30 godina barem i koje su pokušane već nekoliko puta u istom periodu, Francuska i Nemacka bi napokon bile prave powerhouse u Evropi. Sindikati i strah od terorizma su tome za sada glavna prepreka. Link to comment
Prospero Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 EU referendum The Observer Poll gives Brexit campaign three percentage points lead Opinium survey also shows extent of age and class divisions between leave and remain camps Daniel Boffey Saturday 4 June 2016 22.23 BST The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union. The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration. The leave campaign appears to have picked up three percentage points. The potential in the leave campaign’s strategy is reflected in responses suggesting that two in five voters (41%) cite immigration as one of their two most important issues when deciding how to vote. Just over a third (35%) cite Britain’s ability to make its own laws without EU interference and 29% cite the impact of leaving on the UK economy. Half of the 2,007 people surveyed said they believed that immigration would be under better control if the UK did leave the EU. Twelve per cent feel that the UK would have more control if the country retains its EU membership, and 24% say there would be little difference. A fresh campaign to highlight the security dangers of EU membership, including the possibility of Turkey’s accession to the EU, is expected to be launched by Johnson this weekend. However, the leave campaign also believes that, if it can keep the headline polls close, a relatively poor turnout among Labour voters who support remain could deliver it victory. Opinium also issued a different set of figures using an alternative methodology to try to reflect the fact that online samples are sometimes seen to over-represent socially conservative respondents, who may be more likely to favour Brexit. With the adjustments to the make-up of the sample surveyed, remain keeps its lead. Opinium found that 43% of UK adults said they would vote to remain in the EU in a referendum, while 41% would vote to leave the EU and 14% don’t know how they would vote. However, Opinium said a move to leave had also been reflected in answers to their so-called “nudge” question, which asks those who don’t yet know how they will vote in what direction they are leaning. In the last Opinium survey two weeks ago, those split 55% leaning to remain and 32% leaning towards leave. In the latest survey the gap has narrowed dramatically, with 36% leaning towards remain and 33% towards leave, even when the methodological updates were implemented. When those who don’t know were forced to choose, 47% said they lean more towards remain, while 32% lean more towards leave. Generally the polls show an electorate split by social class, region and party political affiliation. The more affluent favour staying in the EU, while older people are typically more likely to back Brexit. London is a stronghold of the remain camp, while the East Midlands tends toward leaving. Areas such as north-west England are more evenly poised. Nearly half (48%) say that Cameron should resign if Brexit occurs, 32% that he should not. Remain voters are evenly split (42% either way) while leave voters overwhelmingly say he should resign (65% to 22%). by Tapatalk Link to comment
Kampokei Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I ja na tviteru ovih dana nalecem na te ankete koje daju prednost Brexitu. Ali, na kladionicama i dalje suvereno vodi Remain. Meni je i dalje potpuno sumanuta i pomisao da ce da pobedi Leave. Mozda za dlaku u samoj Engleskoj, ali mislim da ce ostale tri "countries" da pretegnu. Link to comment
Kampokei Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Cudne su te situacije kada neka opcija uziva tek skromnu ili cak samo marginalnu podrsku, i onda se u rekordnom roku priblizi ili predje 50%. Crna Gora, Katalonija, a pogotovo Skotska i Brexit. A to sve u poslednjih 10+ godina. Link to comment
MancMellow Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 (edited) zato sto kada neki izbor postane realna opcija za koju mozes da actually glasas onda naglo postan katalizator velikog broja problema koji su prisutni u drustvu. A problema uvek ima. Na nekom takvom kljucnom pitanju se onda skupi sve nezadovoljstvo, posebno onih siromasnijih. To je bio slucaj u Skotskoj, a to je sad slucaj i u Engleskoj. Tipa - daj da se bar nesto promeni. Edited June 5, 2016 by MancMellow Link to comment
Kampokei Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Slazem se. Ekonomska kriza u kombinaciji sa percepcijom da vlastiti glas na redovnim izborima ne menja gotovo nista (pri cemu je u kampanji Leave tu glavni krivac zli Brisel). Link to comment
Prospero Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 brisel se trudi da olakša brexit: Britain will face demands to pay billions more into the EU budget following a vote to Remain in Europe on June 23 as Brussels looks to set to ask for more cash from national governments to pay for the unfolding migrant crisis. The European Parliament has passed a resolution demanding greater spending which - if followed through- would tear a hole in David Cameron’s historic cut to the seven-year EU budget, which was capped at £847bn until 2020. And in moves that could see Britain asked to increase its current net contributions of £10.4bn a year, the EU vice president for budgets issued ominous warnings last week on the sidelines of an European conference that member states should be “making room for new commitments”. The unguarded remarks by Kristalina Georgieva to the Chinese state news agency Xinhua have raised fresh fears that Mr Cameron will face calls for big budget increases, particulary when the current settlement comes up for its mid-term review this autumn. "We have to make sure that our budget for next year absorbs all the commitments made so far to deal with the migration crisis, while at the same time making room for new commitments,” said Ms Georgieva. "We have exhausted to a great extent flexibilities offered within the budget. Member states and the European Parliament need to allow more room for flexibilities."Her warning follows complaints from Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the Commission, last year that the budget is “too small” to handle the migration crisis and will require “exceptional financing”. Link to comment
Recommended Posts