BrExit?

[Prospero]

Christine Lagarde urges quick action on Brexit
UK and EU should move together to quell uncertainty, says IMF head

6 hours ago
by: Barney Jopson in Washington


The International Monetary Fund has called for the UK and the EU to quell uncertainty over the implications of Britain’s vote to leave the 28-member bloc by acting quickly and cohesively, following three days of confusion.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, said on Sunday that the fund “will continue to encourage the parties involved to actually proceed with this transition in the most efficient, predictable way in order to reduce the level of uncertainty, which will itself determine the level of risk we are facing”.

In her first extensive remarks on the referendum result, Ms Lagarde noted there was turmoil in the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and that EU leaders had sent mixed messages on how Britain’s exit from the bloc should be handled.

“At this point in time policymakers both in the UK and in Europe are holding that level of uncertainty in their hands and how they come out in the next few days is really going to drive the direction in which risk will go,” she said at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado. 

“We are hearing at the moment, and I’m not inventing it, different statements going a little bit in many directions.”
The IMF was among those that warned British voters of the dire economic consequences of leaving the EU. Ms Lagarde acknowledged ruefully the fund’s lack of success, but on Sunday repeated the prediction of economic pain to come.
“Policymakers are going to be in high demand to [act] in the most cohesive, concerted and hopefully positive way in response to the situation,” she said.

The Brexit vote triggered the resignation of British prime minister David Cameron on Friday and sparked a bitter leadership struggle at the weekend in the opposition Labour party.

Leading figures in Brussels and some EU foreign ministers have called for the UK to act quickly to begin formal negotiations over leaving the bloc, a process meant to be completed in two years.
But German chancellor Angela Merkel said she would not push for an immediate withdrawal. “There is no reason to be particularly nasty,” she said.

Although Ms Lagarde said markets on Friday had experienced “violent, brutal" price moves, she was careful to note that the volatility was not accompanied by panic.
Asked if the UK could reverse its shock decision, she said: "I just don’t see it, personally” but then added: “I don’t want to be quoted on that. It is very much up in the air”.

[vememah]

Bivši laburistički ministar finansija:

 

The former chancellor Alistair Darling has said he is more worried than he was in 2008. He said the country has "no government, no opposition, the people who got us into this mess have run away, gone to ground". 

He told the Today programme that there is "so much uncertainty, so many unknowns, it is very very damaging for the country". He said that whilst he accepted that formal negotiations could not begin until a new government was in place, he said "we cannot have a four-month period during which nothing happens".

Mr Darling accused Boris Johnson of treating the situation like a "big game" and having no plan for the future. He said a gap before decisions were taken could make a bad situation worse. "if you leave a vacuum in politics that is where the trouble starts".

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-36637174

 

[Prospero]

Jasno je meni koji je plan - pregovarati i pregovarati sve dok se ne dogovore, a tek onda aktivirati article 50. Mislim, niko ne moye da spreci low-key pregovore i kontakte koji se možda već u nekoj formi dešavaju bilateralno. Fora je u tome što i norveški tip dila dobrano ugrožava EU, a nešto više od toga je de facto rastura. Ako neko na to pristane možemo da počnemo da se pozdravljamo sa EU. I u tom slučaju (i samo u tom slučaju) će Brexiters ispasti pametni i dalekovidi. 

 

Svi modeli saradnje se ugovaraju nakon formalnog izlaska. U sledeće 2 godine (recimo) se pregovara samo o uslovima razdruživanja, a tek kad UK formalno izađe mogu da počnu pregovori o modelu nove saradnje (norveški, kanadski, STO, švajcarski ne jer ga EU ne smatra dobrim). Taj drugi korak će trajati bar 3-4 godine, tj 5-6 godina pregovora ukupno.

[Friend]

Za Mancha :)

 

 

NYTimes, JUNE 26, 2016:

 

With ‘Brexit,’ Washington’s Direct Line to the Continent Suddenly Frays

 

American officials struggling to reimagine their strategy after Britain’s decision to divorce the European Union say the most urgent challenge will be to find a way to replace their most reliable, sympathetic partner in the hallways of European capitals. It will not be easy.

No country shares Washington’s worldview quite the way Britain does, they say; it has long been the United States’ most willing security ally, most effective intelligence partner and greatest enthusiast of the free-trade mantras that have been a keystone of America’s internationalist approach. And few nations were as willing to put a thumb as firmly on the scales of European debates in ways that benefit the United States.

 

 

All of which raises the question: If Britain can no longer play that indispensable role for Washington, surely there is another country that can? Perhaps, but it is hard to think of who.

It is not a role Germany has shown a real willingness to step into. Its post-World War II ethos still holds it back from committing combat forces, and it is not a member of the inner circle of intelligence sharing called the “Five Eyes,” a club made up of the Anglo victors of World War II. (The other three are Canada, Australia and New Zealand.) A lengthy negotiation to improve the intelligence relationship last year ended with only modest changes.

For all of its cooperation with the United States on a variety of issues, Germany still harbors deep suspicions of the United States that were fueled by the revelations from Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor, including the American surveillance of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cellphone conversations.

And American officials were shocked recently when Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, warned that recent NATO exercises to deter Russia from thinking about destabilizing Poland and the Baltic members of the military alliance amounted to “saber-rattling and warmongering.”

France has also not been as natural a fit with the United States as Britain. While relations have changed drastically since the George W. Bush administration, Paris often goes its own way, including its recent strategy for restarting Israeli-Palestinian talks. The Italians, for their part, are too broke, the Netherlands is too small, and Poland does not yet have the clout of older NATO members.

 

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Friend

[Tribun_Populi]

Ne, oni lagano otežu formalnu notifikaciju izlaska i invokaciju člana 50. TEU dok se međusobno ne konsoliduju, i očigledno igraju na kartu podela unutar vrhuške EU tj. tetkinog bežanja od frankotalijanske socdem opcije federalističke alokacije para kroz EU blagajnu. I otezaće dokle god mogu.

 

E mene zanima samo dokle mogu. I još sam uvereniji u stavu da, ako federacije ikada bude, federalni ustav ima da bude proglašen u Berlinu s tenkovima kao scenografijom.

[Bojan]

Treba malo sačekati dok ljudi izguglaju o čemu se radi.

 

[vememah]

German MP Michael Fuchs, a senior ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, spoke to the Today programme a short time ago. 

With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change.

"Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.

Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.

"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

 

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by vememah

[steins]

Mene jedino fascinira količina testisa koje su ostale članice EU skupile posle Brexita prema punjenju bulje Britancima. 

Nakupilo se tu dosta poslednjih decenija, čini mi se.... 

[Lord Protector]

stari britanski prijatelj

 

 

 

Odey and Soros make big wins on Brexit vote

 

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2462841/hedge-funds-win-big-on-brexit-vote

 

Meanwhile, George Soros, who forecast sterling could fall up to 20% if Britain voted to leave, also gained after buying shares in gold and silver companies.

However, a spokesperson for Soros told Reuters he did not speculate against sterling while he was arguing for Britain to remain in the European Union.

"In fact, he was long the British pound leading up to the vote. However, because of his generally bearish outlook on world markets, Mr Soros did profit from other investments."

Edited June 27, 2016 by slow

[Prospero]

Ne, oni lagano otežu formalnu notifikaciju izlaska i invokaciju člana 50. TEU dok se međusobno ne konsoliduju, i očigledno igraju na kartu podela unutar vrhuške EU tj. tetkinog bežanja od frankotalijanske socdem opcije federalističke alokacije para kroz EU blagajnu. I otezaće dokle god mogu.

 

E mene zanima samo dokle mogu. I još sam uvereniji u stavu da, ako federacije ikada bude, federalni ustav ima da bude proglašen u Berlinu s tenkovima kao scenografijom.

 

Šta ima Uk od "razjedinjene EU" u ovom trenutku? Niko ne može da je direktno natera da aktivira Čl.50, mogu da joj zagorčavaju život.

 

S druge strane otezanje ne odgovara pre svega Britaniji, no to je druga priča, a kako vreme bude prolazilo Britaniji će trebati EU konsenzus oko iole smislenih uslova razdruživanja.

[Tribun_Populi]

Šta ima Uk od "razjedinjene EU" u ovom trenutku? Niko ne može da je direktno natera da aktivira Čl.50, mogu da joj zagorčavaju život.

 

S druge strane otezanje ne odgovara pre svega Britaniji, no to je druga priča, a kako vreme bude prolazilo Britaniji će trebati EU konsenzus oko iole smislenih uslova razdruživanja.

UK sama po sebi ništa, ima njena politička "elita" iz oba tabora koja gleda sitnosopstvenički interes, kako da najbolje prođe u celoj zbrci.

 

No oni me i ne interesuju posebno, njihov problem, ono što mene nervira je to što se tetka ponaša kao oni.

[Bojan]

Znači čitava zbrka na svetskom nivou je nastala jer su se dva tipa iz oksfordskog bratstva sukobila oko vođstva stranke.

 

I sad pošto se sve završilo, ajde da se vratimo na redovne aktivnosti i zadržimo sve kao što je bilo.

 

Inače to isto oksfordsko bratstvo ima ulogu da rezerviše neki restoran, okupi tamo članove, koji će da bahanališu i na kraju demoliraju restoran.

 

To je neka stara tradicija u Engleskoj gde su bogataši povremeno odlazili u gostionice, maltretirali gazdu i seljake, kako bi im uterali strah i na kraju naravno, razlupali celo mesto.

[vememah]

Četvrtina od 1000 anketiranih britanskih firmi planira da zamrzne zapošljavanje, trećina će ga nastaviti, a 5% planira otpuštanja.

Dve trećine firmi vidi rezultat referenduma kao negativan za poslovanje. Polovina očekuje da zemlje EU kazne Britaniju.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36636574

[reginald]

Inače to isto oksfordsko bratstvo ima ulogu da rezerviše neki restoran, okupi tamo članove, koji će da bahanališu i na kraju demoliraju restoran.

 

 

Bullingdon Club. Princ Pavle bio clan.

[radnik]

Ja sam nekako ubedjen da nikad nece ni aktivirati taj Čl.50.

 

Bice malo osramoceni, i bice teraj dalje.