BrExit?

[Tribun_Populi]

Ma povadiće ih tetka i Herr Schäuble iz toga. Ionako sad preuzimaju štafetu od njih.

[MancMellow]

 

U pravu je. Brexit je realno - nerealan. Al nerealno je bilo i započeti rat 1991-92 pa se ipak desilo. I to sa mnogo manje legitimiteta. Moguće je da će ih, što kaže Tribun, Nemci izvaditi nekako iz sranja (naravno, sebe radi prvenstveno), ali oh kako će se promeniti odnos moći u tom slučaju.

[Prospero]

LONDON — As a string of shadow ministers stepped down, Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson was struggling to get back to London on Sunday after a night at the Glastonbury Festival, the Telegraph reported.

Watson partied in a “silent disco” at the U.K.’s biggest music festival until 4 a.m. Sunday morning, as shown in a photo uploaded to his Snapchat account.

 

He arrived at the Castle Cary train station at 9:45 a.m. on Sunday to return to London, but had to wait 2 hours and 45 minutes for the next train.

 

 

Kako ga je zaboleo k za sve

[Tribun_Populi]

Tetka radi damage control. Njenima (CDU/CSU) se ne žuri u evrofederaciju, idu joj izbori dogodine, na desnici jača evroskeptični AfD koji mora da hendluje, a u "EU big four" ostaje sama sa uvek više profederalnim Francuzima i Italijanima. Uz to, smeši joj se (poludobrovoljno) preuzimanje štafete glavne američke podguzne muve u EU, te ima 1001 razlog da omekšava i oteže art.50 invocation.

[vememah]

Min. spoljnih poslova Hamond (bio u Remain kampanji) založio se danas za ostanak u jedinstvenom tržištu i pozvao Brexitovce da kažu šta im je zapravo cilj.

 

U.K. Foreign Secretary: Leave Voters Will Be Disappointed by Brexit Reality

Trade-offs will be necessary to retain the U.K.'s membership of the single market, says Philip Hammond.

The Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, has called on those within the Conservative Party who voted for Brexit to clarify what shape the nation’s exit from the EU should take. He told the ITV’s Peston on Sunday that he believed there was a “fundamental dilemma at the heart of the Brexit position” and that there would have to be concessions made on freedom of movement in order for the U.K. to protect its long-term economic prosperity.

“Leave campaigners made contradictory promises to the British public, they now have to make a trade off between the different things they promised, which will be hugely disappointing to many in this country who voted to leave,” Hammond said.

He refused to be drawn on which candidate he might back in the Conservative Party leadership contest, but was clear that whoever he supported would have to be prepared to campaign to retain Britain’s membership of the single market. Hammond said that the public had not been “told the facts” during the campaign and that he would effectively back, what the show’s host Robert Peston called “Brexit Light,”—a deal which allowed Britain to remain a gateway to the single market for foreign investment in exchange for allowing a degree of EU migration to continue unchecked.

“Our economy over the past 40 years has been shaped by that access [to the single market] to lose that access will be catastrophic. As we sit here I believe the flow of foreign investment to the U.K. has dried up as businesses wait to see what happens,” he said, adding that if Britain did lose access to the single market the country would “slide down the scale” and end up poorer.

Since the result on Friday, Hammond said he had been ringing round his international counterparts to reassure them that Britain would would remain a key player in world affairs.

In terms of future arrangements for nations such as Gibraltar which shares a border with Spain, an EU nation, Hammond was clear that being outside the EU would reduce the U.K.’s ability to protect the overseas territory’s economic interests. He pointed to Gibraltar's overwhelming 96 percent vote for Remain vote, saying that any disruption to the flow of workers across the border would be damaging to the country’s economy.

http://europe.newsweek.com/philip-hammond-brexit-robert-peston-boris-johnson-eu-referendum-474655

 

Edited June 26, 2016 by vememah

[Prospero]

Tetka radi damage control. Njenima (CDU/CSU) se ne žuri u evrofederaciju, idu joj izbori dogodine, na desnici jača evroskeptični AfD koji mora da hendluje, a u "EU big four" ostaje sama sa uvek više profederalnim Francuzima i Italijanima. Uz to, smeši joj se (poludobrovoljno) preuzimanje štafete glavne američke podguzne muve u EU, te ima 1001 razlog da omekšava i oteže art.50 invocation.

 

Ona se igra Kameronove politike (partija ispred svega), samo ima veću šibicu i sedi na daleko većem buretu baruta.

[Tribun_Populi]

Upravo.

[Prospero]

Evo ga Keri, svaka mu je ka u Njegoša:
 

John Kerry on Sunday urged Britain and the European Union to manage their divorce responsibly for the sake of global markets and citizens.
 
Speaking in Rome as he met with Italian foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, Kerry emphasized the importance of thoughtful cooperation at a time of economic uncertainty and fears about crumbling European unity.
He said he would bring a message of US support to both capitals, but he offered no concrete suggestions for how the two sides should make good on the British decision.

“One country has made a decision,” Kerry said. “Obviously, it is a decision that the United States had hoped would go the other way. But it didn’t. And so we begin with a fundamental respect for voters.
“In a democracy, when the voters speak, it is the job of leaders to listen and then to make sure that they are moving in a way that is responsible to address the concerns.

“I am absolutely convinced – and I say this to the marketplace, I say this to citizens who are wondering what is going on – I am absolutely convinced, President Obama is absolutely convinced that we will be able to work through this in a sensible, thoughtful way that takes the best strengths of the EU, the best strengths of the marketplace, the best interests of our national security and international security, and works to keep them moving in the right direction for our countries.”

 

Responsible handling of the situation, Kerry said, will help “the marketplace understand there are ways to minimize disruption, there are ways to smartly move ahead in order to protect the values and interests that we share”.

 

[MancMellow]

 

 

“I am absolutely convinced – and I say this to the marketplace, I say this to citizens who are wondering what is going on – I am absolutely convinced, President Obama is absolutely convinced that we will be able to work through this in a sensible, thoughtful way that takes the best strengths of the EU, the best strengths of the marketplace, the best interests of our national security and international security, and works to keep them moving in the right direction for our countries.”

 

Nema "best strengths of the UK". 

 

Družina sa Itona ima jedan dan da izračuna kvadraturu kruga. 

[vememah]

 Za sada uklonjeno 77 hiljada lažnih potpisa od 3,2 miliona.

 

Petitions committee removes fraudulent signatures

The House of Commons petitions committee has been investigating allegations of fraud in connection with a petition calling for a second EU referendum.

Its inquiry is focused on the possibility that some names could be fraudulent - 77,000 signatures have been removed.

More than 3.2 million signatures are on the petition, but PM David Cameron has said there will be no second vote.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

Edited June 26, 2016 by vememah

[Prospero]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/
 
The EU will treat Britain like Greece
Matthew Holehouse, Brussels
26 June 2016 • 3:40pm
 

I arrived in Brussels as the Daily Telegraph’s correspondent in early June, 2015. A fortnight later, Alexis Tsipras snubbed Brussels, and called a referendum on the third bailout that was designed to save the Eurozone from collapse.
The terms he was later given - €50bn of assets sold and a de facto control of economic policy surrendered - were so harsh they were later denounced as a "coup".
It taught me two things: that in the cause of its salvation the European Union can be profoundly flexible and exceptionally brutal, and that events can swiftly take a momentum that is hard to control.
Nothing of that experience gives me hope for the years that now await our country.
 
Britain is almost certainly out the European Union
As far as Brussels is concerned, Britain has left.
 
At home on Friday morning, Britons were dumbstruck, agog at the result, or chuffed at having taught Brussels a lesson.
We now see street protests to overturn the result, internet petitions, suggestions that the UK or Scottish Parliament could revoke it or somehow make it go away. Westminster is occupied by Labour coups and Tory successions. Few seem to believe we are going.
 
In Brussels, they have been ready to say goodbye for a long time. Britain had been half-way out the door for forty years. David Cameron had announced this referendum in January 2013. He had won an election on the back of it, and many expected him to lose it. He, and they, repeated many times that it was final and binding. Patience is exhausted.

On Friday there was grave sadness, but no panic. The timetable for the talks was announced days before the vote. Martin Schulz, the president of the Parliament, spoke at dawn; Donald Tusk, the president of the Council, delivered a statement at 07.40 GMT. The founding members' foreign ministers met on Saturday; sherpas for the 27 remaining states will meet today to sketch out the months ahead.
Leaders have demanded Article 50 is activated immediately, to create certainty. Realistically, Mr Cameron has until Christmas.
Scotland is ready to quit, and diplomats are quite open to welcoming them into the EU club.

The treaties say that all Britain’s rights and obligations must remain for two years once Article 50 is activated. But Lord Hill, Britain’s commissioner, quit yesterday, and Downing Street said it had no plans to replace him, and Jean-Claude Juncker told Ukip MEPs to pack their bags. Is the legal order fragmenting? What other clauses in the treaties - which protect British expats on the continent, among other things - will now be ignored without consequence?
 
So the Brexit locomotive has left the station.
 
Can it be halted?
 
The European Council has offered a narrow window, saying that Britain has not left until Article 50 is activated formally by the Prime Minister, “if it is indeed the intention of the British government.”
Mr Cameron has left it to his successor to activate it. Mrs Merkel is in no hurry. Senior EU sources say they can wait until Christmas, but prevarication would trash Britain's credit-worthiness.

There are two problems. Firstly, to not activate Article 50 would be a rejection of democracy on a scale that could only be described as a coup, and would poison British public life for generations.
Secondly, a wave of movements demanding referendums on the terms of membership, given a huge boost by Mr Cameron, is tearing across Europe – in France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary. Marine Le Pen could will run rampant in French elections in the spring.

Leaders anticipated that Boris Johnson would pursue a 'vote leave for a better deal' strategy, and ruled it out from February, precisely to prevent this scenario.
Jean-Claude Juncker said on Friday: “The repercussions of the British referendum could quickly put a stop to such crass rabble-rousing, as it should soon become clear that the UK was better off inside the EU.” Britain simply has to go, on bad terms, pour encourager les autres.
 
Britain has very few friends
 
In European eyes, David Cameron has had a remarkably generous lot: already out the euro, ever closer union, justice and home affairs obligations and Schengen, he was offered an enhanced deal that confirmed the perks of membership with scant obligations.
Yet he attacked Brussels for years for domestic advantage. Mr Cameron campaigned hard against his appointment. Stories about Mr Juncker's alleged drinking and the war record of his father, a conscript in the Wehrmacht, emerged. Yet Juncker offered an olive branch by giving Jonathan Hill the financial services portfolio Mr Cameron craved, in order to preserve the City. He is profoundly angry.

In his brutal negotiation, Alexis Tsipras had a number of cards to play. There was the “solidarity” that EU states are obliged to show each other, the pity and guilt at the plight of the Greek people who had been punished through no fault of their own, and the €83 billion of German taxpayer cash in Greek banks that risked going up in smoke. Their referendum had been hasty, the question unclear, Mr Juncker said; Greeks made plain they wanted to remain Europeans.
 
Countries which could also leave the EU:
 
No such goodwill exists for Britain, now an ex-member. Mr Johnson, the possible next prime minister, caused genuine and grave offence by likening the European project to the ambitions of Hitler. His declarations that Brexit will trigger events that unravel the entire project is, in effect, a declaration of war that must be met.

Recall how inflexible European leaders were during Mr Cameron’s attempted renegotiation, when he put a gun to their heads and threatened to leave unless they submitted to his demands. He has fired that gun in the air, and locked himself out the room. Britain’s only leverage is how much damage a messy Brexit would inflict on European economies.
 
Time is not on our side
 
Once Article 50 is activated, events will move frighteningly fast. It took Mr Cameron seven full months to secure his meagre renegotiation. He will have just two years to get an exit deal covering every facet of British life, and a trade deal that will do the least harm to the fragile, debt-laden economy.
The government is in disarray, the Labour party in meltdown, and the imminent exit of Scotland means it will be unclear with who or what, exactly, the EU is negotiating with. The French foreign minister yesterday implored Cameron to find a successor to take charge.
A ban issued from Downing Street on Brexit preparations – lest it boost the leave campaign – meant Britain’s most senior officials were permitted to “think” about a Brexit, but not allowed to write anything down.
Several take their guide from Flexcit, a book by a blogger Richard North that advocates a Norway-style deal as a half-way house under a “soft” exit. The crucial weeks ahead of polling day were spent in purdah, tending the garden.
The UK has next to no trade negotiators, and will need hundreds, to replicate the market access it currently has with 50 states around the world.
 
But the EU is ready. Talks in Jean-Claude Juncker’s in house think-tank began months ago. Foreign ministries have been preparing position papers. Lawyers are busy: Brussels has had 70 years of practice in writing treaties, signing trade talks, fixing accessions and bailouts, making and breaking nations.

We don't get to be Norway
 
The Leavers’ best hope – a Norway deal that means EEA status, retained rights for the City and immigration - is almost certainly off the table.
Britain has made clear it doesn’t want free movement – and so any deal on those grounds would be so impossibly fragile as to be a waste of time. Frankfurt and Paris would certainly like our banks. Mr Juncker is determined to undo Britain's attempt to create a multi-currency union, meaning clearing houses that trade in Euros and generate billions for the Exchequer will have to be domiciled in the Eurozone.
Leaders have made clear, before and after the vote, that Britain is not getting access to the single market.
“Out is out,” said Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, some weeks ago.
“There will certainly be no cherry picking,” confirmed Mr Juncker, saying it will be a "clean" divorce.
More likely is a Canadian-style trade deal, that will set tariffs on imports and exports. That may be fine for German manufacturers. But Britain’s service economy will be cut up like an old car. British graduates are about to learn what it's like to use an Australian-style points system.
 
We do not control this process
 
Article 50 is designed so that it leaves any state that activates it is a supplicant.
The remaining EU states will negotiate between themselves and deal with the UK as one, just as they would for Albania or Turkey.
If a deal covering trade arrangements isn’t struck once the two-year period expires, Britain is simply released from the EU treaties and left on crippling WTO terms - something the Treasury terms a "severe shock scenario" and which it envisages would likely result in a cut in GDP of six per cent and increase unemployment by 800,000, not including the risks presented by emergency spending cuts, or the "tipping points" presented by the crystallisation of financial stability risks.
It means the government will effectively be forced to take any fait accompli presented at the last minute, or face ruin.
Even then, any further trade deal will require ratification by EU parliaments, meaning Belgian MPs, amongst others, can veto it.

The Leave campaign is fond of a quote attributed to Churchill: “Each time we have to choose between Europe and the open sea, we shall always choose the open sea.”
 
Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee, For those in peril on the sea.

[Tribun_Populi]

In the meanwhile...

 

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZC0BQ

[Bojan]

Ovde ima jedna kontradikcija koju bih voleo da se razjasni. Ako je deo konzervativne i izolacionističke elite u gradovima glasao isto kao siromašniji deo populacije u provinciji i na selu onda se ne može govoriti o njihovom sukobu, sukobu urbanog i ruralnog, bogatog i siromašnog, već o vertikalnoj podeljenosti celokupnog britanskog društva. Nešto drugo je u pitanju. Da nije sukob tradicionalnog i modernog, strah i premor od promena i integracija, čista inercija dela populacije? 

 

Nije stvar u tome da se striktno povuče granica ko je gde. Ovde se špekuliše sa onim momentom u glasanju koji nije bio predviđen i koji je presudno uticao da predviđanja nekih tako omanu. Da je samo u pitanju podela na tradicionaliste i moderniste tu bi se rezultat dao lakše predvideti.

 

A tu se upravo radi o potcenjivanju nekih glasača i njihovoj sposobnosti i volji da kažu "odjebi". To se, takođe, ukršta sa pitanjem zašto valjani argumenti za remain nisu dali očekivani rezultat, dok su tanki argumenti za leave prevagnuli?

 

Za Kamerona recimo postoji percepcija da nije blizak običnim ljudima, dok je kod Faragea obratno. On je čak svoju političku karijeru gradio na čestim razgovorima sa običnim ljudima, u pabovima. Za Johnsona isto važi da se kreće među ljudima. 

 

Imamo i lošu percepciju recimo ljudi iz Sanderlenda prema ljudima iz Sitija; zatim lošu percepciju istih prema EU, kao birokratskoj tvorevini (prospero je dao dobar članak o tome). Zašto bi nekog iz Sanderlenda puno bolelo uvo što će neki "luvvies" iz Sitija ostati bez radnog mesta?

 

Onda tabloidizovanost, gde se vešti narodni tribuni snalaze kao riba u vodi.

 

Ne treba se zanemariti i veća izlaznost.

 

Opet kažem, nije ovo nešto što bi moglo da precizno da odredi ko je gde, ali bi moglo da ima određenu težinu kada se odgovara na pitanje "Kako je ovako nepredviđen rezultat moguć?"

[vememah]

Nemci izgleda odlučili da pruže ruku Škotima.

 

An independent Scotland would be welcome to join the European Union, a senior German lawmaker and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel has said after Britain's vote to leave the bloc, Reuters reports.

"The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful," said Gunther Krichbaum, a member of Ms Merkel's party and chairman of the European affairs committee in parliament.

"We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country."

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

[Kampokei]

Pa ne znam bas koliko je pametno bilo kakvo pruzanje ruke Skotima u ovom trenutku. Stajaliste EU treba da bude da je uredjenje VB unutrasnja stvar VB. Zapravo mi se cini da Nemci ovim toboznjim ohrabrivanjem Skotske zapravo zele da obeshrabre London od sprovodjenja referendumske odluke.