BrExit?

[MancMellow]

(Tupav sam pa ne znam kako da podelim quote i odgovor.)

 

Pasus 1

Kritikovao sam ja to dosta prosle godine.

Arogancija, nespremnost da se moralni hazard resi na drugi nacin, hipokrizija (odrapi Grcku i Portugal, zastiti Francusku i Nemacku kada prekrse stabilizacioni pakt), urusavanje institucija i poverenja u EU, odsustvo strategije i zapusavanje kriza.

(Proslo godinu dana i nista se nije poradilo sustinski na reformievra osim stampanja para.)

 

Ok, nisam to bio video. Ali je onda pitanje sledece: zasto je onda moralni problem pokusati za sebe izboriti sto manju stetu? Mislim, drzave nekad vode i ratove u kojima su one u vecem stepenu u pravu (ili nevinije) od drugih drzava pa ih izgube. Nije svaka politika koja drzavu odvede u taav rat unapred neodgovorna. Smatrali smo da imamo osnova to da trazima, napravili smo losu procenu i - jebiga. Ali to iako je neuspesno, nije nuzno u startu neodgovorno. Sto se tice Olanda, Francuska jeste daleko mocnija od Grcke, ali je ipak i u daleko boljoj ekonomskoj poziciji. Ali mogu da priznam da se kod njega radilo o nepostenju, on je skoro sasvim sigurno krenuo sa pricom koju nije ni imao nameru ozbiljno da gura. 

 

Naprednjaci nisu raspisali izbore zbog nekog svog strateskog neuspeha pa da provere poverenje naroda. To, plus, hleb za tri dinara nije strateska platforma na kojoj su izabrani. Strateska platforma je bila korupcija. Sa kojojm znamo kako stvari stoje i takodje znamo da nemaju nameru da tu proveravaju poverenje glasaca. 

 

Monteskje i Volter su napravili (izmedju ostalih, naravno) ideolosku pozadinu za strukturnu promenu drustva. Ponovicu, ti kao da odrices ljudima pravo da se mirno i demokratski borbom ideja, i, ako hoces, poropagandno, zalazu za nesto, pokusavaju sto veci broj ljudi da za to zainteresuju - a sto iskreno smatraju da je najbolje za te ljude, te stoga nemam zaista pojma o kakvom intelektualnom nepostenju govoris - da odigraju svoju u logu u stvaranju odredjenog politickog raspolozenja. Apsolutno te ne shvatam, zaista. Oni nit su krenuli da ruse kapitalizam, nit su krenuli da ruse bilo sta, realno, zalazu se za promenu mehanizama i nekih principa na kojima funkcionise nesto sto vec postoji. A to sta je politicki moguce, a sta nemoguce, ja bih ostavio razvoju dogadjaja. Sve i da si ti u pravu da neka promena nije moguca bez teskih kriza. Kao rezultat teskih kriza svasta moze da se dogodi. Da li ce se dogoditi bas to sto neko zeli, zavisi izmedju ostalog i od toga sta je taj neko radio pre nego sto je nastupila kriza, tj kako se za istu pripremao. Djavola bi komunisti recimo dosli na vlast u WW2 da nisu imali stalnu politicku aktivnost pre tog rata. Ili, nacionalna ujedinjenja - mogla su se ostvariti samo u krizama. Ali se nikad ne bi ostvarila da nije pre toga postojao neki idejni pokret. itd, itsl. Kakve veze ima sto primaju novac od Guardijana. Da primaju novac direktno od Evropske komisije ne bi imalo nikakve veze. Jer oni pricaju ono sto misle, ocigledno.

 

 

Naravno da je kriza accountabilitija ako se nagradjuje percepcija napora a ne ucinak. "Vucic je posten, trudi se, ali ne moze i protiv ruskog/americkog lobija" (ruskog ili americkog precrtati po zelji), "SYRIZA se trudi ali, eto, jadni ne mogu". (Na grskoj temi sam kacio politikolosku studiju koja objasnjava najsveziciji Sirizin izborni uspeh upravo takvom percepcijom.)

 

Cekaj, ali o kome govoris? Koji accountability kome tacno? Ti kazes da accountability ne postoji zato sto postoji odredjena percepcija u javnosti. Pri tom situacija u Grckoj i Srbiji je drasticno razlicita (posebno tada bila) kad su mediji u pitanju. Grcki narod ih je drzao "accountable". U tom procesu je, uz nezavisne i cak mahom prema Syrizi nerasolozene medije, odlucio da ih "return to office". Tebi se ne svidja politicka presuda grckog elektorata, smatras je narazumnom. Fair enough. Ali to nije samo po sebi kriza accountabilityja.

 

 

To sta grcki narod zeli je opet vezano za ustanove, populizam, i slicno. Zelje, mogucnosti, raskorak.

 

Znaci, ok, kriv je grcki elektorat jer je pomislio da mozda ne bi bilo lose da proba da se izbori za povoljnije ili bar onakve uslove za koje dobar broj ne samo Grka misli da bi bili bolji i za Grcku i za vracanje duga? 25% nezaposlenost ti njima prebacujes sto su probali da sebi olaksaju polozaj. Zaista, savrseno ne razumem ovakve primedbe. Ni tada ni sada.

 

Ovo realno treba premestiti na (bar) EU topik 

Edited June 10, 2016 by MancMellow

[Prospero]

Indy na naslovnoj strani
 
 
 

EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 13 days to go

Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum

• Andrew Grice
• @IndyPolitics
• 14 minutes  ago
• 111 comments

Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have helped propel the Leave campaign into a significant lead over their Remain rivals Christopher Furlong/Getty Images


The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.

Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum

Differential turnout could prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same.


The results will heighten fears in the Remain campaign that it is losing ground among Labour supporters, who are seen as critical to securing victory for it.  According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave. Only 38 per cent of Tory voters endorse David Cameron’s stance by backing Remain, while 62 per cent support Leave.

Many people seem ready to vote for Brexit even though the poll shows they believe it involves some risk and think the economy is more important than immigration – widely seen as the Leave camp’s trump card.
The one crumb of comfort for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s referendum on gay marriage last year.

The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially,  just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.
Support for EU membership is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of people in every other region of Great Britain favour withdrawal when turnout is taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign, only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave. This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.
 
However, warnings about the economic impact of Brexit appear to have hit home. According to ORB, eight out of 10 people – and of Conservative voters – think leaving the EU would pose some risk, and only 19 per cent think it would pose no risk at all. But a majority of both groups are still prepared to take the risk.
 
Similarly, 52 per cent of people agree with the statement that the economy is a bigger issue than immigration when considering how to vote in the referendum, while 37 per cent disagree.
Seven out of 10 people think the campaign has been too negative so far, while only 15 per cent disagree. The Leave camp will see this finding as a sign that what it has dubbed Remain’s “Project Fear” has not worked.
Four out of 10 people believe that whatever the referendum result, it will not have much impact on their everyday life, but more people (44 per cent) disagree with this statement.
Polling experts say the result is still too close to call, and that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give Remain a higher rating than online surveys.
 

Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?

Weighted for turnout    Now             April
Remain                      45 per cent     49 per cent
Leave                        55 per cent     51 per cent

Headline Figure
(not weighted for turnout)   Now              April
Remain                               47 per cent   50 per cent
Leave                                 53 per cent   50 per cent

What people think the result will be (average prediction)
Remain 52 per cent
Leave 48 per cent

How much of a risk do you think leaving the EU would pose?
A great deal of risk   26 per cent
Some risk   55 per cent
No risk at all  19 per cent

When considering how to vote, the economy is a bigger issue than immigration
Agree   52 per cent
Disagree 37 per cent
Don't know  11 per cent

Whether we decide to leave the EU or to remain, the result won't have much impact on my daily life
Agree   40 per cent
Disagree   44 per cent
Don't know  17 per cent

I feel the campaign so far has been too negative
Agree  69 per cent
Disagree  15 per cent
Don't know  15 per cent

[MancMellow]

Remain treba da batali kampanju za ostanak i da se okrene GOTV kampanji. Njima je najveći problem kako izvući sve koji bi glasali za Remain na birališta. 

[Dagmar]

Ako je moj feeling tačan, biće BrExit.

[radisa]

Šta će biti sa Eur i GBP u odnosu na Švajcarac i USD, ako bude brexit?

 

Vredili bežati u Švajcarac, ako bude Brexit?

[Lancia]

Tu smo mi da kvalitetno zamenimo Brite u EU. 

[Dagmar]

Šta će biti sa Eur i GBP u odnosu na Švajcarac i USD, ako bude brexit?

 

Vredili bežati u Švajcarac, ako bude Brexit?

 

Moralo bi. Nema šta drugo da raste kad evro krene da pada. Bar ja tako mislim.

 

 

 

 

Tu smo mi da kvalitetno zamenimo Brite u EU.

 

 

 

Zamišljam onaj crtani kad ono stvorenje igra i peva la kukarača la kukarača...

 

Edited June 10, 2016 by Dagmar

[MancMellow]

Šta će biti sa Eur i GBP u odnosu na Švajcarac i USD, ako bude brexit?

 

Vredili bežati u Švajcarac, ako bude Brexit?

 

Nemam pojma za ovo, ali ako bude Brexit £ pada sto posto. Kao i cene nekretnina, bar na određeni rok. Drugim rečima, ako bude Brexit, a slučajno planirate da kupite nekretninu u UK :D  - takva prilika se neće skoro ukazati.

[Kampokei]

Aneksija dela druge drzave, pa onda Brexit, u samo dve godine? Previse za ovako umoran i nervozan kontinent. Ja racunam da ce efekat straha da prevagne za Remain, ali cini se da se taj strah gubi kako se blizi referendum? Sta radi Remain sektor? Do mene, pasivnog posmatraca, cesce dolaze slike i poruke od Borisa i njegove klike nego od Jevropljana.

[Prospero]

Deda Skiner daje svoje tumačenje

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yINAvMtZ2BM

[MancMellow]

Aneksija dela druge drzave, pa onda Brexit, u samo dve godine? Previse za ovako umoran i nervozan kontinent. Ja racunam da ce efekat straha da prevagne za Remain, ali cini se da se taj strah gubi kako se blizi referendum? Sta radi Remain sektor? Do mene, pasivnog posmatraca, cesce dolaze slike i poruke od Borisa i njegove klike nego od Jevropljana.

 

Kuckao sam se s jednim Mančestercom ovih dana (ex-biznismenom, sad na doživotnom letovanju :D ) i usred kucanja pade mi slična stvar na um (ako slučajno izglasaju Brexit). On pomenu da misli da je engleska "psyche" značano oštećen "nezahvalnošću" Škotske i mogućnošću, realno, cepanja države. I generalno sve manjoj bitnosti (koju su sami izabrali, priznaje, mislim ćovek je za Remain) u okviru kontinenta. I da je deo engleskog javnog mnjenja isfrustiran svim i svačim i da njim vlada 1 iracionalan politički poriv u ovom trenutku. I bukvalno mi kroz glavu prošlo, a nisam još napisao a i ne znam da li ću :D - jbt, da ovo nije engleski very own Ukraine moment?

Edited June 10, 2016 by MancMellow

[Anduril]

Sojble o tome sta znaci biti clan kluba:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

[jms_uk]

Remain je baš baš vidljiv. U poslednjih deset dana dosta mojih prijatelja se aktiviralo toliko da dele flajere po ulicama. Verovatno je London nešto drugačiji, ali leave je baš slabo prisutan u mom krugu.

Dodji u ove ruralne krajeve da vidis leave svuda.

 

 

Sent from my iTelephone using Tapatalk

[Tribun_Populi]

Ako je moj feeling tačan, biće BrExit.

+1

[vememah]