BrExit?

[Braća Strugacki]

ne moze

 

parlament je suveren

 

uvek može da zavede diktaturu

[Prospero]

Five Questions on Brexit to JO SHAW

Jo Shaw, Maximilian Steinbeis

 

Fr 24 Jun 2016

 

 

 

 

Jo Shaw ist Professorin für Europarecht an der Universität Edinburgh, Schottland, Großbritannien.

 

 

 

1. What were your thoughts when you first heard of the result of the referendum this morning?

I was watching the TV last night when the first two results were declared (Sunderland and Newcastle) and these immediately triggered concerns that never went away about Remain underperformance. I was pretty much awake all night following it on twitter, and sleep was an impossibility. I was rather numb this morning, but talking it through with a number of people and doing a couple of media interviews, as well as the inevitable social media mawkishness has helped.

I’m horrified by the result which I am still struggling to understand, although I’ve heard all the arguments about people being left behind and facing a fear of immigration, etc. I was pleased that Scotland voted solidly and strongly for Remain.

 

2. Could an exit of the UK result in changes to the constitutional setup of the European Union, for better or worse?

I think that’s unlikely although I know that some people may be happy to see the UK go as it might remove a brake on certain changes (although in my view they are then likely to realise that lots of other Member States are also opposed to closer integration and oppose any further treaty changes), and won’t lead to the unravelling of free movement. But in practice, the UK’s evolving disentanglement from the EU might create a de facto or even de jure type of halfway house membership to accommodate British exceptionalism.

I’m not happy about what’s happened, but I wonder if the time has come to question whether the EU has somehow run its course and transnationalism in Europe – which is essential – needs to be reinvented in some other form (I genuinely believe that if the EU didn’t exist we would need to invent something like it).

 

3. What does the referendum teach us about the merits and limits of direct democracy?

I am not a fan of referendums at all, and I’ve definitely had my fill of them after yesterday’s. I don’t think referendums are the appropriate mechanism for dealing with these types of issues – I rather agree with what Richard Dawkins had to say about that issue. Citizens in general here do not have the necessary expertise. That might sound elitist, but actually it’s simply in support of representative democracy. We elect members of Parliament to deal with such questions.

Moreover, in the UK, we don’t have a proper and effective regulation of the supply of unbiased information as they do, for example, in Ireland. So we got into the situation where no one was accepted as offering unbiased information and we entered a ‘post truth’ phase of politics with a lot of mudslinging and a totally impoverished debate regarding some pretty complex matters. I also think we were very badly served by many sections of our media, in particular the broadcast media that often did not hold the Leave side to account for its downright lies, e.g. perhaps most painfully from the perspective of someone such as myself, on Turkey and membership. Already there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that some voters and some regions are regretting already their vote and the outcome. People will realise that it’s not just an act of economic self-harm, but also self-harm to our passports and our freedoms.

We should also think about using supermajorities or double locks (territorially based) in respect of these types of cross-UK referendums, if we ever do it again.

That said, it is perhaps only through further referendums that we might salvage something from the wreckage, as I comment below.

 

4. Do you think the decision for Brexit could be reversible?

Yes, it could be. There’s a possibility for the Article 50 trigger to be delayed, and the UK simply to carry on in membership, and then – once the UK population has had long enough to digest the real implications of Leave (see answer to 3 above) a second referendum could be held, perhaps this time under better conditions. I’m not sure that this will happen, though, precisely because the issue is complicated by the internal territorial pressures discussed in the next section. I don’t think anyone is under any illusion that Boris Johnson is not some sort of ideological Leaver, so it could be that if he becomes Prime Minister then we will see moves in this direction. An alternative might be a sort of ‘soft leave’ suggested by my colleague Stephen Tierney.

 

5. Do you see a way to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland within the European Union?

Northern Ireland is legally complicated and politically fraught. I think I would prefer those with a real expertise in the legal situation and the politics of the question to answer that question rather than wading in without really knowing what I’m doing. I will just say that Sinn Fein’s immediate call for a referendum on reunification in Ireland was utterly predictable in the circumstances.

Scotland is a politically easier question – it’s had one (constitutionally and legally framed) referendum, and it voted solidly and strongly to remain. Hence calls for a further referendum to pave the way for legal steps to be taken to keep it in the Union as part and parcel of an Article 50 process (perhaps combined with Article 49), or an Article 48 process that sees it substitute for the UK as a whole seem legitimate. In terms of Articles 48, 49 and 50 we are largely back where we were during the Scottish independence referendum when those various provisions of the treaty were regularly bandied around. My own view is that if the political will is there then I wouldn’t see any difficulty with the various processes being bundled together with relevant transitional provisions and amendments to the institutional provisions of the treaty. And as to the political issues: well the problems that were directed at Scotland when it was contemplating seceding from the UK and then trying to keep or restore EU membership may not arise in the case of a Scotland that is trying to minimise Brexit by reference to the political will of its citizens, because this case can be clearly distinguished for the purposes of avoiding a contagion around places such as Catalonia. So Spain would probably be more sanguine about this option, because it could see that Scotland trying to minimise Brexit is actually strengthening the EU which is in Spain’s best interests.

I can see Scotland being an independent country within the EU before the end of the decade.

 

By the way, heaven knows what’s going to happen to Gibraltar….

[Prospero]

Pred referendum, na sajtu BBC-ja si mogao da vidis za svakog MP-ja da li je i kako opredeljen.

 

 

Ok za MPjeve, nego građani u njihovim glasačkim okruzima? Ima li negde mapa razdeljena na tih 650 i kusur okruga sa rezultatima EUrefa?

[Tribun_Populi]

Nije problem u zajednickoj blagajni nego sta ce iz te blagajne tacno da se finansira.

Federalna blagajna recimo ima smisla da ukljuci odbranu, spoljnu politiku, internacionalnu infrastrukturu, poljoprivredu, trgovinu, energiju, top nauku, obrazovanje i federalnu policiju.

Socijalna davanja, penzije, zdravstvo, lokalna infrastruktura, finansiranje lokalne industrije, lokalne banke i policija bi ostali na nacionalnim i regionalnim nivoima.

Trenutno neslaganje u EU je sto neki pod federalnom EU podrazumevaju centralizovanu EU (sa sve dugovima i benefitima) jer uopste ne poznaju praksu federalnog uredjenja - Francuska npr. Sa druge strane, Nemacka ima veoma dugacku tradiciju federalnog uredjenja.

Ja delim Mančov stav da nijedna država, pogotovu tog kalibra, nije nastala prostim ugovorom™, izglasavanjem tako nečega, obično su sve nastajale iz nekog sranja koje je prethodilo kako bi porodilo nešto novo i dobro. Institucije su u debeloj krizi političkog legitimiteta, percipiraju se kao otuđene i birokratske, bez mogućnosti uticaja na njih onako kako se utiče na nacionalne vlasti.

 

U tom smislu sam malo i rezervisan, te mislim da će obim ovlašćenja federacije, ako je bude, neko tu morati da diktira™ za početak. A diktiraće ih, opet, upravo nesrećnim bangavim Nemcima.

[MancMellow]

uvek može da zavede diktaturu

 

mislis "monarhodiktaturu"   moze i ujedno gradjanski rat

[Braća Strugacki]

čemu uopšte ta gimnastika, ako nisu želeli mogućnost izlaska iz eu, nisu morali da izvode ove gluposti sa referendumom, e sad kada su već izašli na referendum i dobili njegove rezultate, nema mnogo mesta za razne gimnastike kako da zajebemo glasače i da obesmislimo demokratiju

 

da je remain pobedio, vodila bi se potpuno drugačija diskusija

 

 

mislis "monarhodiktaturu"   moze i ujedno gradjanski rat

 

građanski rat već postoji, samo je kulturan

 

zavođenje diktature bi bilo oglušivanje parlamenta o rezultate referenduma

 

što je kraljica gora od parlamenta

Edited June 25, 2016 by Braća Strugacki

[MancMellow]

čemu uopšte ta gimnastika, ako nisu želeli mogućnost izlaska iz eu, nisu morali da izvode ove gluposti sa referendumom,

 

eee

[precog]

ne kazem da ih nece odjebati, ali mi se cini da trenutno Englezi sa EU ne bi mogli da se dogovore ni gde i kad da popiju kafu. Pre ce ih odjebati zato sto nece uspeti da se sami dogovore oko toga.

komuniciraju oni iza kulisa i te kako. plus kako je vec neko spomenuo tradicionalne EU separatisticke regione. veca je sansa da se Juga ponovo sastavi.

Sta mislite da na konto ovog rastanka da li ce EU da ubrza pricu sa Balkancima? Ili da li ce da daju neki ufur Turcima ili da krpe odnose sa Rusima?

[precog]

ne kazem da ih nece odjebati, ali mi se cini da trenutno Englezi sa EU ne bi mogli da se dogovore ni gde i kad da popiju kafu. Pre ce ih odjebati zato sto nece uspeti da se sami dogovore oko toga.

komuniciraju oni iza kulisa i te kako, plus kako je vec neko spomenuo tradicionalni EU separatistic regions. veca je sansa da se Juga ponovo sastavi.

Sta mislite da na konto ovog rastanka da li ce EU da ubrza pricu sa Balkancima? Ili da li ce da daju neki ufur Turcima ili da krpe odnose sa Rusima?

 

edit. glupi telefon

Edited June 25, 2016 by precog

[Tribun_Populi]

Ma jok.

[MancMellow]

komuniciraju oni iza kulisa i te kako. plus kako je vec neko spomenuo tradicionalne EU separatisticke regione. veca je sansa da se Juga ponovo sastavi.

Sta mislite da na konto ovog rastanka da li ce EU da ubrza pricu sa Balkancima? Ili da li ce da daju neki ufur Turcima ili da krpe odnose sa Rusima?

 

Ukratko? Nije potpuno nemoguce da to toga dovede, ali licno sumnjam 

[Prospero]

mislis "monarhodiktaturu"   moze i ujedno gradjanski rat

 

Čekaj da se Britain First, EDL i ostali opasulje kad im parlament kaže "samo ste se šalili na referendumu, jel da". Biće jedno 350MPjeva koji će biti Jo Cox u najavi do u nedogled

[MancMellow]

 

zavođenje diktature bi bilo oglušivanje parlamenta o rezultate referenduma

 

rezultati referenduma nisu pravno obavezujuci

[precog]

Ukratko? Nije potpuno nemoguce da to toga dovede, ali licno sumnjam

slazem se za Balkance, ali nisam siguran oko dilova sa Rusima I Turcima. Edited June 25, 2016 by precog

[Tribun_Populi]

rezultati referenduma nisu pravno obavezujuci

Okači ti to slobodno o klin.