Sinovi kineskog zmaja

[Prospero]

Ma kakav bre ICBM.

 

Ovde se ne radi o snazi izbačenih snaga već o simboličkom kočoperenju.

Edited May 30, 2015 by Prospero

[Shan Jan]

Prilicno nagli zaokret Kine ka agresivnoj spoljnoj politici. Uz ovakvu USA bice tu prostora za picvajz koliko hoces...

[hazard]

http://trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com/2015/07/male-informacije-sa-trzista-gvoza.html

 

 

 

Male informacije sa tržišta gvožđa

Kategorija: Kina, recesija

Udaljimo se na trenutak od Grčke krize. Mislim da trenutni fokus u EU na Grčku skreće pogled sa druge tempirane bombe čiji je fitilj izgleda krenuo ubrzano da gori. Kineska (ne)realna ekonomija.

 

Poslednjih mesec dana, oko 3.500 mlrd. $ je nestalo sa berzi u Kini. Dogodio se kratkoročni, ja bih ga nazvao blup (zvuk kad voda krene da ključa pa izađe prvi veliki mehur i pukne u paru). Ok, verovatno veliku ulogu u ovom balonu ima i regulacija Narodne banke Kine, kao i smanjenje kamata i sl. Međutim, paralelno sa ovim događanjima trenutno se dešava neviđeni pad cena primarnih sirovina i proizvoda zbog drastičnog pada tražnje i viška ponude. Kinska ekonomija posustaje u proizvodnji i izvozu, nešto na čemu se bazirao Kineski rast.

 

Kina proizvodi preko 50% svetskog čelika. Kina troši više od 50% svetske proizvodnje rude gvožđa, kao i uglja. Kineske čeličane su u 20 godina imale neviđeni rast, međutim od septembra 2014 godine, po prvi put je došlo do značajnijeg pada iskorišćenosti kapaciteta čeličana, još od 2008 godine. Tada je pad bio kratkoročni a sada je već 10 meseci pad konstantan. U proseku on se vrti oko 70%. Došlo je do pada tražnje za čelikom zbog smanjenja gradnje i investicija u Kini. Paralelno sa tim investicije u Evropi i Aziji su takođe u padu, (govorim o investicijama u postrojenja, fabrike, puteve, stvari koje traže čelik). Posledica je da Kineska proizvodnja čelika, industrijskih mašina i građevinskih poluproizvoda morala da se preusmeri u Evropu, što je oborilo cene čelične gredice, žice, betonskog gvožđa. Cena rude gvožđa je otprilike na istorijskom minimumu, cena otpadnog gvožđa je od 09/2014 pala oko -45%, nafta je doživela sličan pad nešto ranije, cene obojenih metala su podivljale na dole na berzama. To bi generalno moglo da pomogne investicijama, da ima ko da investira i u šta. 

 

Ono što je najgore, na vidiku nema rasta investicione aktivnosti koja bi mogla da iskoristi višak kapaciteta i podigne cene primarnih sirovina. To je tržišni proces i nemam ništa protiv, naprotiv podržavam dinamiku, iako veoma negativno pogađa firmu u kojoj radim. Ali je važnije to, da svi signali i predviđanja pokazuju da smo verovatno na novom niskom nivou (novoj ravnoteži) u cenama primarnih industrijskih sirovina. To znači da otprilike svaka 4 ili čak svaka 3 železara u svetu mora da propadne. Isto važi i za građevinske kompanije, livnice, proizvođače mašina i sl. Sve to pogotovo mora da se dogodi u Kini koja proizvodi i troši tako mnogo. Ovo je pravo čišćenje u recesiji koje tek treba da se dogodi, a pogodiće Kinu veoma. Ne bi me čudilo da pored usporavanja rasta, viđamo i signale puta u recesiju kineske ekonomije. A to je tzunami koji će EU, SAD i ceo svet, da pogodi mnogo gore nego bilo šta što može da se dogodi sa Grčkom. 

 

Nisam siguran šta sve ovo znači, niti imam jasan koncept u glavi, ali evo vam tema za razmišljanje i istraživanje. Mislim da izlazak iz ove trajne stagnacije nije moguć dok se ne počisti neproduktivan kapital, investiran u zaobilaznijeproizvodne procese, odnosno preinvestiran kapital u pogrešnim industrijama. Zbog trajno jeftinog kapitala, i veštačkog pumpanja potrošnje, realni sektori se i dalje nisu prilagodili ekonomskoj strukturi koja bi bila održiva. Austrijska teorija poslovnih ciklusa, all over the place. Vraćam se na čitanje teorije, pa kada složim jasniju sliku pišem ponovo.  

 

at Thursday, July 09, 2015 posted by Pavle Mihajlović 

 

[MancMellow]

super. znaci mozemo da ocekujemo agresivniju kinesku spoljnu politiku

[Peter Fan]

http://trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com/2015/07/male-informacije-sa-trzista-gvoza.html

 

To znači da otprilike svaka 4 ili čak svaka 3 železara u svetu mora da propadne. Isto važi i za građevinske kompanije, livnice, proizvođače mašina i sl. Sve to pogotovo mora da se dogodi u Kini koja proizvodi i troši tako mnogo.

 

Trebalo bi, ali ne mislim da hoce. Kineske vlasti ne smiju dopustiti velike socijalne potrese, a zatvaranje 3/4 zeljezara/livnica/distributera bi upravo do toga dovelo. Kad je 2008. bakar pao sa $8,700/MT na $3,100/MT (a pad je bio srazmjeran i na drugim bazicnim metalima i gvozdju), drzava je uletila. Tad je pad bio mnogo dublji nego sad. Doduse, bio je i relativno kratkotrajan, od aprila 2008 do negdje februara 2009. Ovo ako se oduzi, onda je pitanje koliko to vlast moze vjestacki da odrzava.

 

Interesantnije ce biti gledati manifestaciju toga u Kanadi i Australiji, gdje su vlasnici rudnika u isto takvoj buli, a drzava manje spremna da uleti. Mislim da je Australija u velikom problemu, jer je vecina njihovih sirovina bila plasirana u Kinu. I tu su drzave nerealno niskim kamatama omogucile/ohrabrile mjehur i misalokaciju kapitala u taj segment.  Ko drzi novce u CAD i AUD, da pomisli o tome :-)

[hazard]

Ja treba da konvertujem neke novce u CAD, pa bi mi pad istog odgovorao vrlo :)

[Peter Fan]

Ja treba da konvertujem neke novce u CAD, pa bi mi pad istog odgovorao vrlo :)

Pa vec je dobrano pao u odnosu na USD.

 

Inace, jos jedan razlog zasto nece biti zatvaranja tolikih razmjera je to sto su troskovi obustave proizvodnje baznih metala, a posebno zatvaranja firmi izuzetno veliki, tako da su proizvodjaci prisiljeni proizvoditi pod gubitcima. A plasiranje proizvoda a prezasiceno trziste samo vodi do daljnjeg pada cijena, tako da je to jedan viscous circle. E sad, koliko njih moze ostati likvidno i koliko dugo, to je pitanje.

 

Ovo je vjerovatno dobar moment da se shortuju akcije Rio Tinta, Glencora, Alcoe i drugih firmi koje su u tom rudarsko-preradjivackom lancu.

[Eraserhead]

@george_chen: BREAKING: Chinese stock market ends 3% lower, w/ 1,200+ stocks down 10% daily limit; Chinese media admit gov "failure to boost market" today

[borris_]

18 maps that explain maritime security in Asia.

 

http://amti.csis.org/atlas/

[Lord Protector]

...

Edited August 7, 2015 by slow

[Prospero]

U.S. Strains Mount After China Devalues Yuan

Beijing’s currency move draws rebuke from lawmakers, threatens to impede Obama’s Pacific trade effort

 

 

By William Mauldin in Washington

Updated Aug. 11, 2015 11:20 p.m. ET

 

 

 

China further devalued the yuan on Wednesday, adding more strains to Washington’s relations with Beijing after Tuesday’s surprise weakening of its currency drew condemnation from U.S. lawmakers.

Tuesday’s yuan devaluation, the largest against the dollar in more than two decades, instantly made Chinese goods more competitive with American products, drawing industry complaints and souring the mood of U.S. politicians ahead of an election next year. It will also likely hurt the Obama administration’s push to seal a sweeping trade agreement with Pacific nations.

Still, it drew praise from the International Monetary Fund, which called China’s announced new way of valuing the yuan a “welcome step” toward making the currency more sensitive to market forces.

China on Wednesday weakened the yuan further, setting the rate that determines that day’s trading in the currency 1.6% weaker than Tuesday’s rate. Still, the new rate was nearly the same as Tuesday’s closing market value for the yuan, and China’s central bank on Wednesday sought to stem concerns of a further slide. “From the perspective of economic and financial conditions both at home and abroad, there is no basis for a continued depreciation of the yuan at this point,” said the People’s Bank of China in a statement on its website.

 

Tuesday’s currency move, a month ahead of a U.S. visit by President Xi Jinping,comes after the two countries have increasingly butted heads over territorial claims in the South China Sea, traded accusations over cyberespionage and quarreled over a new Chinese security law. Bilateral trade talks with Beijing also have stalled.

 

President Barack Obamais using China’s poor reputation in Washington as an argument to support his signature trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which excludes Beijing. The administration hopes the pact, known as the TPP, will help the U.S. boost ties with other countries in the region as a counterweight to China’s economic might. A determined group of lawmakers—mostly Democrats—has vowed to fight the Pacific deal unless it includes measures to crack down on alleged currency manipulation among Asian trading partners.

 

“China is electrifying the currency-manipulation issue at the worst possible time for Obama as he seeks to limit controversy before President Xi’s visit to Washington and also to sweep the TPP currency issue under the rug,” said Michael Wessel, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressionally mandated body that monitors the economic and security relationship between the two countries.

 

Lawmakers have for years accused Beijing of manipulating its currency, giving an unfair advantage to its exporters, and the Obama administration has consistently called the yuan “significantly undervalued.”

 

The issue has faded somewhat in recent years as the yuan was allowed to appreciate by some 30% against a basket of currencies and Chinese labor costs rose sharply, leading the IMF in May to declare that the yuan was no longer undervalued.

 

Part of the calculus for Chinese leaders, some analysts said, is that it’s more important to safeguard political and economic stability at home in the lead-up to a Communist Party meeting in October when key policies are set than to avoid new strains with Washington.

 

The Obama administration’s relations with Beijing have been mixed in recent months. Despite considerable friction on several fronts, administration officials worked hard to clinch deals with the world’s second-biggest economy on limiting carbon dioxide emissions and opening a path for tariffs on high-tech goods to be eliminated through the World Trade Organization.

 

China argues that the 1.9% overnight devaluation was a step toward more market-driven movement of the currency. This argument, that the currency will now reflect trading fundamentals, could carry some weight in Washington, provided China sticks to its guns.

 

“The problem is, what if they have consecutive days of sharp declines?” said Victor Shih, a China expert at the University of California at San Diego. “A commitment to market mechanisms could be very destabilizing, and the Chinese government doesn’t have a very good record on this, as seen with the recent wholesale stock-market intervention. They prize stability over all else.”

 

The Treasury Department, which has declined to label China a currency manipulator since 1994, took a wait-and-see approach given recent commitments from top Chinese officials to transition to a more market-oriented exchange rate with more transparency.

 

The Chinese central bank’s initial announcement, at least on the surface, marked a nod in that direction.

“While it is too early to judge the full implications of the change in the PBOC reference rate, China has indicated that the changes announced today are another step in its move to a more market-determined exchange rate,” a Treasury spokeswoman said Tuesday. “Any reversal in reforms would be a troubling development.”

 

Though some in Congress back the administration’s approach, several prominent lawmakers involved in U.S. trade and economic policy weren’t so eager to withhold judgment.

 

“There is reason to be skeptical of believing that the largest devaluation of the Chinese currency in over two decades is merely about moving to a market-based exchange rate,” said Rep. Sander Levinof Michigan, the leading Democrat on the House committee that oversees trade and a critic of the Obama administration’s trade policy.

 

The 2016 presidential election and congressional campaigns are further inflaming the currency issue, which could weigh on the administration’s international economic engagement.

 

“Whether it is currency manipulation or cyberattacks, President Obama seems unwilling or incapable of standing up to the Chinese when they cheat,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham(R., S.C.), among the lawmakers running for the GOP presidential nomination.

Sen. Rob Portman(R., Ohio) a former U.S. trade representative facing a tough re-election battle in a state deeply divided on the issue, said “the administration’s refusal to take on China’s currency manipulation is enabling Chinese workers to have an unfair advantage over Ohio workers. Any negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership must prioritize combating currency manipulation by our foreign competitors.”

The political backlash on currency is concentrated in states reliant on automobile manufacturing, steel production and other heavy industry. “Our government must address the massive damage that China’s undervalued currency is causing to our nation’s manufacturing sector, especially the steel industry,” said Thomas Gibson, head of the American Iron and Steel Institute, an industry group.

 

The Obama administration has said China’s controversial economic policies are a reason for Congress to support the Pacific trade deal in order to boost American-style rules in the region, an argument that helped win passage in June of special trade authority designed to expedite the pact.

But critics in Congress see China’s devaluation as a calculated step to achieve a trade advantage, something they want to prevent other countries from doing in the TPP since such moves can wipe away the incremental benefits of lower tariffs. Such rules could also prevent China from unfair devaluations if it enters the TPP someday, the critics say, but the Obama administration warns binding currency disciplines could backfire and put U.S. monetary policy under global scrutiny.

 

Congress still retains a final up-or-down vote on the TPP, and lawmakers on key committees can even remove an agreement from “fast track” consideration. China’s move could also redouble the efforts of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and other top lawmakers to pass binding legislation that would punish currency manipulation in related trade legislation that Democrats and some Republicans want passed along with the TPP.

 

“The U.S. needs to ensure American businesses and workers have a backstop to fight back against currency manipulation,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio), who along with Mr. Schumer is a member of the Senate Finance Committee. “That means passing our bipartisan bill to punish currency manipulation and demanding rigorous currency disciplines in TPP, which China may seek to join at a later date.”

 

U.S. officials are looking at a set of tools for putting pressure on Asia-Pacific countries blamed for violating norms agreed on through the IMF.​

[sandine]

http://www.jutarnji.hr/video--gigantska-eksplozija-u-kineskom-velegradu-golema-vatrena-kugla-uzdrmala-milijunski-tianjin--nitko-ne-zna-sto-je-uzrok/1398332/

 

Holy crap!!!

[reg]

Massive explosions have hit China's northern port city of Tianjin, reportedly injuring many people.

According to Chinese state media, the blasts occurred when a shipment of explosives blew up at about 23:30 (16:30 GMT).

 

Pictures and video shared on social media showed flames lighting up the sky and damage to nearby buildings.

Latest reports in state media suggest that hundreds of people have been taken to hospital.

The first explosion was followed by another 30 seconds later.

Further blasts were subsequently triggered nearby, Xinhua state news agency said.

Shockwaves could apparently be felt several kilometres away from Tianjin.

The Editor of the BBC's Chinese Service, Raymond Li, says all indications are that it is an industrial accident.

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33896292

[jms_uk]

An official Chinese seismic agency said the force of the first explosion was equivalent to three tons of TNT, the second was 21 tons.

Edited August 12, 2015 by jms_uk

[Dionysos]

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-tianjin-explosion-2015-8