Inace, ako nekog stvarno zanima tematika, ima ovdje odlicna analiza trenutnog stanja, te potencijala EU. a nebi li se odgovorilo na pitanje da li EU moze da se do 2030 ospobi parirati Rusima.

Pod pariranjem se podrazumijeva sprecavanje upada i zauzimanje dijelova EU teritorija, primarno Baltika.

https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/1%20kiel.pdf

Google Gemini sazetak, uljucujuci i podebljane dijelove:

The key conclusion from Kiel Report No. 3, "Fit for war by 2030? European rearmament efforts vis-à-vis Russia," is that despite increased defense spending, Europe's rearmament efforts are still insufficient to counter Russia's growing military capabilities and achieve meaningful deterrence by 2030.

More specifically, the report emphasizes these critical points:

1. Russia's Continued Outproduction: Russia continues to significantly outproduce European countries across multiple key weapon systems (tanks, IFVs, artillery, missiles, fighter jets). To decisively shift the balance in Europe's favor, production would need to increase by a factor of around five.

2. Insufficient European Production and Delays: While artillery shell and howitzer production has increased and is nearing demand, the output for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, missiles, and combat aircraft remains critically low. Furthermore, long delivery delays (three years or more) persist between procurement decisions and actual delivery.

3. Fragmented Market and High Costs: The European defense market is fragmented, leading to low production volumes and higher unit costs for European weapons. Deeper integration, joint procurement, and competition among manufacturers are vital to bring down prices and achieve economies of scale.

4. Reliance on the US and Need for Innovation: Europe remains heavily reliant on the US for advanced military technology and strategic enablers. The report stresses the urgent need for Europe to invest in its own technological innovation (e.g., AI, cloud computing, drones, advanced missile systems) and significantly increase defense R&D spending to avoid lagging behind the US, China, and Russia.

5. Need for Accelerated and Strategic Procurement: Procurement processes are often slow and bureaucratic. Europe needs to accelerate and frontload its procurement, focusing on modernizing weapons and strategies while simultaneously scaling effective existing systems.

In essence, the report warns that simply increasing spending isn't enough; Europe needs a more coordinated, integrated, and innovative approach to its defense industry and procurement to be truly "fit for war" by 2030.

EU ne moze vojnim programom da postane nezavisna od SAD. Amerika je od 194 pravila mrezu kontrole od koje zavisi EU, a dosta i Kina, i to je "EU" zelela, tako su smanjivali troskove i posledice dva svetska rata. To ne moze preko noci da nestane bez sukoba. Konkretno Peta i Sesta americka mornaricka flota, stacionirane u Persijskom zalivu i Napulju, respektivno, imaju svoju ulogu u tome. Kontrola kretanje robe, pre svega nafte i gasa. Na stranu sto je EU od 2022 izgradila veliku zavisnost od uvoza nafte i gasa iz SAD ali to nece dugo jer Amerika je na vrhu ili blizu vrha proizvodnje nafte i gasa i sledi postepeni pad. Ovo je samo jedan primer, gde je izvozno trziste, tehnologije itd.

Ali sve zajedno, Amerika moze jednstavno da "zatvori radnju" u EU:

Niti vidim da ce SAD dozvoliti da EU stvori vojno-tehnoloske konkurente americkim. Imaju mnogo nacina da to blokiraju i vec to rade. Nemacka, Holandija i jos par zemalja u EU su se odlucile da kupe americki F 35 a ne evropske avione. Stavise, pre 20ak godina su bili spremni da razvijaju svoj avion na panevropskom nivou, tipa Eurofighter, a sada kupuju americki, nazadovali su u tom pogledu.

Sva ta povecana ulaganja su placenje reketa Vasingtonu da im ne dira sve priviilegije od uvoza sirovina do otvorenog americkog trzista. Ja to tako vidim. Bice tu nekih projekata na evropskom nivou ali daje od toga nece ici.

Meni ovo samo deluje da za iste/slicne usluge Tramp trazi od EU da bude lepo veci ceh.