Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[Roger Sanchez]

Pa dobro, možemo da se zezamo, ali to ipak nešto govori i o medijima na kojima se ovaj ne pojavljuje uopšte. A nije da im ne dolazi na zicer, još sa ovom sahranom

Ne, fakat RT ima posebni senzibiltet. Fala bogu, zna se da se taj senzibilitet završava neđe kod Smolenska, jbg, neke granice prosto moradu da postoje

And I, for one, welcome the new Anglo-Hungarian empire.

Nije dugo trajalo.

Well, that didn't last long. The UK's short-lived alliance with Hungary is over after the latter's government indicated its willingness to take part in the proposed treaty change, subject to a parliamentary vote. Sweden and the Czech Republic (the only other two countries not to sign up to the process) had already done so.Here's the key paragraph from the revised statement issued by European heads of state:

The Heads of State or Government of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden indicated the possibility to take part in this process after consulting their Parliaments where appropriate.

Edited December 9, 2011 by Roger Sanchez

[Anduril]

Moody's sada takodje razmatra downgrade gotovo svih Eurozone clanica - ukljucujuci i Nemacku, Holandiju, Finsku itd. Ovo je, naravno, veoma zanimljivo jer svako moze da pogleda osnovne ekonomske parametre i vidi da tu nesto ne stima - dok SAD i UK imaju deficit koji je blizi grckom nego italijanskom, spanskom a da ne govorimo o nemackom ili holandskom, dok Evrozona kao cela ima zapravo relativno balansiran uvoz/izvoz a jaki izvoznici poput Nemacke/Holandije izvoze/zaradjuju vise nego cetiri puta vece SAD+UK zajedno koje usled toga i dalje zavise od spoljnih investicija, stampanja para, trosenja na kredit, slab prospekt za rast uz i dalje ogroman deficit u trgovinskom bilansu i pored stampanja, americke rating agencije i dalje teraju svoje.No, ono sto ce biti zanimljivo je ponasanje investitora (posebno iz Azije) i da li ce se i oni sloziti sa zakljuccima agencija koje su do 2007. davale maksimalan rejting prevarantskim papirima sa Vol Strita. Nedavno je publiciran rad o tome koliko zapravo americki analisti provode vremena analizirajuci informacije u poredjenju sa evropskim ili azijskim. Rezultat je bio da to cine mnogo manje a da su im mnogo vazniji veliki gestovi i autoritarne izjave zvanicnika - recimo kad Bernanke kaze da ce nastampati koliko je god dolara potrebno da bi odrzao americko trziste obveznica oni su impresionirani ali kad se u EU kroz bolan, postepen politicki proces guraju strukturne reforme u roku od nekoliko meseci za koje bi normalno bile potrebne godine ili decenije, onda je to za njih znak slabosti, nepostojeceg vodjstva itd.. Ono sto oni ocekuju je da ECB izadje u javnost i kaze da ce neograniceno nastampati evre, pogurati malo inflaciju ali da ce zato trziste obveznica biti kratkorocno osigurano. Sta ce biti posledice takve politike u 5 ili 10 godina to ih ocigledno ne zanima kao sto ih nije zanimalo ni 2005. sta ce biti 2010. posto ce tada vec uveliko uknjiziti svoje bonuse. Ali, ovaj proces konsolidacije u Evropi pod pritiskom pre svega americkih finansijskih menadzera/zvanicnika i njihove problematicne grcke kulture koja je i dovela do krize ima mnogo toga dobrog jer gura reforme drugde a na kraju ce verovatno dovesti do potpunog gubitka poverenja u iste te menadzere, analiste i stampare u FED-u koji ocigledno jos uvek ne shvataju ekonomsku realnost dok u Vasingtonu niko ni ne razmislja kako da sreze deficit. Kljuc ce na kraju biti ponasanje investitora iz Azije - i oni vole autoritarne izjave ali zato vole mnogo manje besomucno stampanje dolara i funti koje ce se nastaviti i sledece godine a i godinu posle toga. Posledice cemo videti tek negde 2013. ili 14. ali, ako se Evrozona do tada konsoliduje bez masivnog stampanja i inflacije a uz uvodjenje Eurobondsa na kraju tog procesa, pocecemo da vidimo masivan beg kapitala iz SAD i UK koji ce biti gotovo nemoguce zaustaviti usled gubitka ekonomske perspektive ali i pre svega - poverenja.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Anduril

[Roger Sanchez]

Iz tvojih usta u Molohove uši, Andurile! Riječi ti se pozlatile..

[Roger Sanchez]

Hvala ArleKinu za pocjećanje na Čemerni, a sad molim 1 dotur aspirina za Sirijusa.

Italy sold 7 billion euros ($9.3 billion) of one-year bills, the maximum for the auction, and borrowing costs declined after Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government approved a 30 billion-euro emergency economic plan. The Rome-based Treasury sold the bills to yield 5.952 percent, down from 6.087 percent at the last auction on Nov. 10, which was the highest in 14 years. Demand was 1.92 times the amount on offer, compared with 1.99 times last month.

Oh noooes! It's not all downhill! :(

[Yoda]

Nebojsa Katic objasnio jos jednom

[Sirius]

World stocks hit by weak Italian debt auctionLONDON (Reuters) - The euro sank and stock markets fell on Wednesday, worried by record high borrowing costs for Italy and the Federal Reserve's decision to do nothing new to prop up growth despite warning Europe's debt crisis could hurt the U.S. economy.Major U.S. stock markets were on track to open lower with futures markets signaling falls of between 0.2 and 0.5 percent.The euro broke below $1.30 for the first time since January after Rome's auction of five-year debt, with foreign exchange markets still speculating that more rating downgrades were in prospect for euro zone governments."Uncertainties on the future of the debt crisis remain high and the market seems to be mainly driven by flight-to-quality this morning," said Annalisa Piazza, market economist at Newedge Strategy.Italy paid a euro era record 6.47 percent on its new five-year bonds, compared with the previous record of 6.3 percent set in November.

Uzgred, italijanske obveznice na 10 godina imaju skok kamata posle samita EU, kada su dotakle dno od 5.9 sada su na 6.8.Nego, susedstvo koje postupcima pogadja glavnog kreditora ovog dela Starog kontintenta:Austrian Banks Facing Payback as Hungary’s $22 Billion Debt Slaves RevoltSede na oko 1 trilion evra problematicnih kredita plasiranih po CiIE. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjXl61uKq8cNema mesta cudjenju. :)

[Sirius]

Ali, ovaj proces konsolidacije u Evropi pod pritiskom pre svega americkih finansijskih menadzera/zvanicnika i njihove problematicne grcke kulture koja je i dovela do krize ima mnogo toga dobrog jer gura reforme drugde a na kraju ce verovatno dovesti do potpunog gubitka poverenja u iste te menadzere, analiste i stampare u FED-u koji ocigledno jos uvek ne shvataju ekonomsku realnost dok u Vasingtonu niko ni ne razmislja kako da sreze deficit. Kljuc ce na kraju biti ponasanje investitora iz Azije - i oni vole autoritarne izjave ali zato vole mnogo manje besomucno stampanje dolara i funti koje ce se nastaviti i sledece godine a i godinu posle toga. Posledice cemo videti tek negde 2013. ili 14. ali, ako se Evrozona do tada konsoliduje bez masivnog stampanja i inflacije a uz uvodjenje Eurobondsa na kraju tog procesa, pocecemo da vidimo masivan beg kapitala iz SAD i UK koji ce biti gotovo nemoguce zaustaviti usled gubitka ekonomske perspektive ali i pre svega - poverenja.

Kultura ova ili ona za helikoptere u Vasingtonu inflacija je preko potrebna. U suprotnom Obama nema sanse za reizbor ali to je manji problem od onoga sto ce uslediti. U svakom slucaju ce se pojaviti negativni efekti ali oni barem mogu biti delimicno kontrolisani kroz inflatorno ponasanje centralne vlasti, kao u Japanu. Ovo u Evropi im nikako ne odgovara jer je ovo defaltorno ponasanje koje im katastrofalno utice na banke i berzu.Sa druge strane Nemacka ne zeli inflaciju zbog unutrasnje potrebe. Da bi povecala zaposlenost Nemacka je oborila plate svojim radnicima kako bi postali konkuretniji Aziji, to je kineska deflacija koja globalno deluje. Ako bi doslo do rasta inflacije standard Nemaca bi poceo da pada a to za izbore nije dobro. Plus sto Nemci imaju ogroman benefit od zajednicke valute ne samo kroz izvoz vec i kroz bezanje investicionog kapitala iz Spanije i Italije u Nemacku. Zato ce se napadi kreditnih agencija iz SAD nastaviti dok god ne pocnu da stampaju. A, morace, postoji i drugo resenje a to je bankrot za lose ali to ne zele veliki igraci, iako je najbolje resenje, koje bi kratkotrajno izazvalo paniku ali dugorocno bi donelo oporavak i stabilnost.

[TBoneSteak]

oce li stara mutti&dragi mario vec jednom da izvade tu big bazuku ili imate namjeru da jedete korijenje?

[Sirius]

Delimicno su zasukali bazuku na trogodisnjem trzsistu obveznica, likvidnost za banke. Nema tu problema bice i stampanja, kao sto sam i pisao, iako je danas Fitch rekao svoje:

FITCH PLACES BELGIUM, SPAIN, ITALY, IRELAND, SLOVENIA AND CYPRUS ON RATING WATCH NEGATIVE

FITCH AFFIRMS FRANCE AT 'AAA'; OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE

Ali evo i bratskog Moodysa, sveze, taze:

BELGIUM'S CREDIT RATINGS CUT 2 LEVELS TO Aa3 BY MOODY'S

S&P najavljuje "krvavi" ponedeljak ;)

[Sirius]

Evo i pokazatelja kako se krecu ekonomije u evrozoni, barem najveci deo:

Ireland's Q3 GDP falls 1.9 pct Q/Q vs -0.5 pct forecastDUBLIN, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Ireland's economy contracted at its fastest pace in over two years in the third quarter after a global slowdown hit export growth, casting doubt over Dublin's ability to transform itself into the euro zone's comeback kid.Gross domestic product slumped 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to a Reuters poll forecast of a 0.5 percent fall, making Ireland the worst euro zone performer in the third quarter apart from Greece, which no longer publishes seasonally adjusted figures.

Ne razumem kako misle da smanje deficit sa ovakvim ekonomskim stanjem?!

[Sirius]

Idemo, print, baby, print:

*ECB AWARDS EU489 BLN IN THREE-YEAR LOANS VS EST EU293 BLN*ECB SAYS 523 BANKS ASKED FOR THREE-YEAR LOANS

Sada ce oni demantovati da stampaju: te nismo tako mislili, te lagali nas, te casna pionirska Naravno, ovo nece znacajno pomoci realnom sektoru jer ce banke potpuno da se vezu za ECB i bice ih bas briga da pozajmljuju novac. Isto se desilo u Japanu, trenutno je tako u SAD. Ali ce zato ljudi osetiti inflaciju iako u obracunu inflacije nece da se vidi posto se kombinuje sa sektorima gde traje tzv de-levering. Ali zato nafta i sirovine mmm, njam, njam. :)

[Budja]

Luis de Guindos, a former Lehman Brothers executive, will be economic minister, while Cristobal Montoro was appointed treasury minister.The new ministers will be required to help steer the country through its toughest economic crisis in decades.Mr Rajoy's Popular Party (PP) won polls last month, ousting the Socialist Party amid deep economic gloom.Mr de Guindos, 51, an economist who headed Lehman Brothers in Spain, was second-in-charge in the ministry between 2002 and 2004 when the PP was last in power.

Aposlutno sramotno.Zato fino ECB stampa pare da bi spasila banke a te pare privreda videti nece. Najgore od svih mogucih tokova stampanja para.Captured state.

[Roger Sanchez]

s obzirom da teks dolazi iz STRATFORA treba ga shvatiti ozbiljno.

Krajnje ozbiljno. -_-

[Sirius]

LTRO "Bazooka" Is Epic Disaster As Banks Scramble To Redeposit "Free Carry" Cash With ECB, Lose Money On "Inverse Carry"When on Friday we penned "And This Is Where The LTRO Money Went" we said that the final nail in the "Carry Trade" theory was that instead of using the LTRO "Bazooka" cash to collect meaningless pennies in front of a steamroller, Europe's banks turned around and deposited it right back with the ECB after the bank's deposit facility soared to a 2011 record €347 billion, €82 billion more than the day before. Today, any residual doubt of where the LTRO cash proceeds went is eliminated, as the ECB has just confirmed that what goes out of one pocket comes back in the other, as the ECB's deposit facility has just exploded to not a 2011 record, but an all time record high €412 billion, a €65 billion increase overnight, and €167 billion higher in the past two days alone, which effectively accounts for practically all of the LTRO's free €210 billion. And to those who foolishly claim this is a seasonal year end cash parking, we present the full history of the ECB's facility usage since it exploded on the scene in 2008. P;ease go ahead and show us when in 2008, 2009 and 2010 there was a spike in year end facility usage. We have all day. But wait: there's more! In another independent confirmation that all hell is about to break loose, we just saw the 1 Year Bund drop sub zero again. As a reminder, the last time it was there was in the last days of November, just before the global central bank cartel had to come in and provide a global liquidity bailout for Europe's banks. So: back to square minus one ladies and gentlemen of an insolvent Europe? But the biggest slap in the face of Sarkozy is that instead of banks pocketing the "guaranteed" 2-3% in carry trade between the 1% LTRO rate and the soveriegn bond yield, banks are losing 75 basis point on this inverse carry trade, where they take LTRO cash and deposit it with the ECB where it yields... 0.25%!

Italijanske obveznice:edit: naslov u quote Edited December 27, 2011 by Sirius

[Anduril]

Kamate na italijanske obveznice su se skoro prepolovile. Ovo je verovatno rezultat neogranicenog novca koji stoji evropskim bankama sada na raspolaganju od ECB-a ali i reformi koje je Monti zapoceo. Ako se ovaj trend nastavi u januaru i februaru kad budu vece aukcije, strategija promene EU-ustava bez daljeg direktnog kupovanja obveznica od ECB mozda i bude funkcionisala. Pitanje je samo da li uopste postoji sustinska razlika izmedju direktnog i ovog indirektnog mehanizma spustanja kamate na obveznice - verovatno ne osim sto ce ovde banke opet uzeti neku razliku.