Opšti topik o EU (ex kriza Evrozone)

[Friend]

Bolje nego sto smo se nadali.

[pasha]

Ti podaci nisu tacni.

Lega je ubedljivo dobila u Italiji sa 34.3% ali ti podaci jos nisu uneti u raspored.

Stavise, moze se desiti sa Lega ima najvise mandata kao pojedinacna stranka u EP. Sada su na vrhu Faraz i CDU u koaliciji sa CSU.

Salvini i ENF ce imati iznad 70 i verovatno biti 4 snaga.

 

Treba reci da su se na desnici podelili ENF i ECR iako imaju slicne poglede na EU, imigraciju itd.

Tako je nova stranka desnice u Holandiji(ECR) razvalila Viledersa(ENF).

Slicno je u Svedskoj sa SD, koja je tik na trecem mestu, koja je ECR iako vise lici na ENF po stavovima poput protivljenju imigraciji.

 

Ne znam gde ce ici Faraz, on nije ni ENF, ni ECR a nosi puno mandata. Mislim da ce koordinirati sa ENF i ECR.

Nacionalisticka desnica je puno dobila.

Jos ako se tome doda poljski PiS i madjarski Fides, koji je izbacen iz EPP(ali nije jos ni ECR, ni ENF), a gde je Orban rekao da ce koordinirati akcije sa Salvnijem i ENF u EP.

Veliki skok imaju.

Jedino gde su slabije rezultate ostvarili su Nemacka i Austrija, ali ne nesto strasno slabije, zbog afere Strahe.

Ocekivao sma gore za fpo i adf.

I Vox je slabije prosao u odnosu na skore izbore u Spaniji.

 

Najveci je problem sto je u vodecim clanicama EU dobila anti-EU desnica: Italija, Francuska, UK i pitanje za Poljsku.

Cast su obranile Nemacka i Spanija ali i tamo je skok nacionalne desnice u odnosu na prethodne izbore za EP.

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by pasha

[hazard]

Treba dodati da će se relativni skor EPP poboljšati nakon što se desi Brexit. Nijedna britanska stranka nije član EPP (bili nekada Konzervativci, pa prešli u blago evroskeptični ECR pod Kameronom). Socijalisti će izgubiti 10 laburističkih poslanika, a Liberali 15 poslanika Liberalnih demokrata. Zeleni će ostati bez 7 britanskih poslanika. Od grupacija sa britanskim poslanicima ECR će najmanje biti pogođen (3 poslanika Konzervativaca). Najviše će oslabiti populistički EFD, jer će Faražov Brexit party odneti pola njihovih poslanika. I to će, verovatno, imati uticaja na koalicione pregovore.

 

BBC:

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by hazard

[pasha]

Da, vidis o tome nisam razmisljao sta se desava sa mandatima kada ode UK.

 

Jedna pozitivna stvar je da Zlatna zora izduvala u Grckoj ali su zato neonacisti u Slovackoj dosli na 12%.

 

 

[hazard]

Treba imati u vidu da je u Slovačkoj bila najniža izlaznost, 23%.

[hazard]

13 minutes ago, pasha said:

Ti podaci nisu tacni.

Lega je ubedljivo dobila u Italiji sa 34.3% ali ti podaci jos nisu uneti u raspored.

Stavise, moze se desiti sa Lega ima najvise mandata kao pojedinacna stranka u EP. Sada su na vrhu Faraz i CDU u koaliciji sa CSU.

Salvini i ENF ce imati iznad 70 i verovatno biti 4 snaga.

 

 

Može biti da si u pravu, ovde Salvinijevom i Le Penovom ENFu daju 71 poslanika. Grupacije, naročito ove manje nacionalističke su fluidne, i pitanje je kako se gleda, npr. ova Salvinijeva alijansa je nova, nisu svi formalno pristupili njoj, neke stranke će promeniti grupaciju itd. Rezultati se daju uglavnom u odnosu na trenutnu ,,zvaničnu" afilijaciju stranke ili poslanika (što može da bude i ,,bez afilijacije"). Moguće da se tu krije razlika u projekciji BBCija (EFD 54, ENF 58, ,,ostali" 37) i Politika (EFD 44, ENF 71, ,,ostali" 32). Znaćemo zapravo tek kada se konstituiše parlament tačan raspored snaga.

[pasha]

Tesko je pohvatiti sve desne grupe koje su podeljene na mnogo frakcija.

[hazard]

Isto je hit što u poslaničkoj grupi sa Zelenima sede razni regionalisti, nacionalisti, separatisti i manjinske stranke. Grupa se zove Greens-European Free Alliance, a ovi EFA su npr. škotski SNP, velški Plaid Cymru (tako da će ta grupa izgubiti i njih, preko onih 7 poslanika britanske zelene partije), katalonski ERC, Letonska ruska unija, Stranka korzikanske nacije, separatistička flamanska stranka NVA, itd.

 

Kvaka je u tome da je za formiranje grupe potrebno bar 25 poslanika iz 7 različitih država, pa onda dolazi do čudnih spojeva, jer poslanički klub tj. grupa donosi velike privilegije.

[Facundo Orellana]

Salvini-Le Pen osovina mora naći partiju iz još jedne članice. Trenutno imaju poslanika iz 6 (Francuska, Italija, Belgija, Austrija, Česka, Estonija). EFDD ima samo Brexit Party, M5S i Afd. Kolušić se još spominje u toj grupaciji. Teško da će ta grupacija opstati posle Brexita, ako ga bude. Fidesz i Vox će najverovatnije u ECR. Liberali i Zeleni su pobednici izbora.

[hazard]

Da, to što kažete za Fidesz je bitno, oni su u EPP trenutno suspendovani, ali nisu izbačeni. Ako ih izbace ili Orban odluči da se povuče, EPP gubi 12 poslanika. ECR je svakako prirodniji dom za Fidesz nego EPP. A i ECR mora da nadoknadi gubitak britanskih Konzervativaca kad-tad

[hazard]

Btw, Voxu mnogo više leži da ide u ENF, mada oni nisu evroskeptici uopšte (skoro niko u Španiji nije).

[hazard]

Kao što rekoh

 

Anti-Weber front materializes on EU election morning after

 

Quote

Manfred Weber is the face of the party that won the most votes in the European election, yet his position has never been so fragile.

 

Empowered Liberals on Monday led the charge against the European People's Party nominee for European Commission president — or Spitzenkandidat — firing the first shots in the fight for the most sought-after of the EU's top jobs.

 

“Clearly, we think the EPP candidate is today completely disqualified,” France's Pascal Canfin, No. 2 on Emmanuel Macron's En Marche list, told France Inter. "We will throw all of our weight in the balance to have either a French candidate, who could be Michel Barnier, or a candidate that is in any case much closer to the new Parliament's center of gravity, much less to the right than before."

 

As horse-trading for EU top jobs — including the presidencies of the Commission, the Council and the Parliament — kicks off, all eyes are on a new centrist-liberal coalition led by Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte that will likely play a decisive role in shaping the new EU.

 

“The results of the 2019 European elections are clear,” the group plans to declare in a statement to be released Monday and previewed by POLITICO. “No pro-European majority is possible without the new central group that the ALDE Family, Renaissance, [Romanian party] USR Plus and other reform-driven like-minded parties will create.”

 

After meeting with Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa last week, Macron is dining on Monday with Spain's Pedro Sánchez, also a Socialist, to discuss EU top jobs ahead of a meeting of all EU leaders on Tuesday.

 

Macron is also reaching out to EPP leaders.

 

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, whose GERB party came first in the European election, told Nova TV last week that Macron called him to discuss EU jobs. "Here [in Bulgaria] we call it horse-trading," he said, hinting that he is ready for compromise. “When Macron called, I told him 'Colleague, Bulgaria is fighting to get the labor agency in Sofia ... Those who support me for the agency, they can ask for me to support them for something else.'"

 

The European Council has the legal power to nominate the Commission president, and warned repeatedly it isn't bound by the Spitzenkandidat system — under which the lead candidate of the group able to command the support of Parliament should be chosen as Commission president.

 

The Commission's powerful Secretary-General Martin Selmayr on Monday defended the Spitzenkandidat system at POLITICO's day-after event.

 

“I think it will require for any Commission to get into office to have the EPP, the Socialists and the Liberals working together, and taking into account the Greens,” he said.

But "democratic parties" should stick to the Spitzenkandidat system, he suggested. “Why should they go for someone else?”

 

The EPP stood its ground Sunday evening.

 

“We have won the election,” Joseph Daul, the president of the EPP, said at a rally with Weber in Brussels. “There is only one job for us — it’s president of the Commission. It’s Manfred Weber.”

 

"Our family committed to the Spitzenkandidat concept ... Only a person can be elected and that one must be Spitzenkandidat," Weber said.

 

But even some newly elected candidates from his own political family offered Weber only lukewarm support. French EPP party Les Républicains will support him "out of coherence," Les Républicains candidate Geoffroy Didier told France Inter.

 

Meanwhile, one of the Liberal alliance's slate of lead candidates, Margrethe Vestager, on Sunday sought to position herself as the obvious alternative candidate.

 

“Yes, I want to become the EU Commission's next president," she told German broadcaster ARD.

 

At POLITICO’s event Monday, Selmayr said he considers "Vestager as a Spitzenkandidat.”

 

Postoji škola mišljenja koja kaže da je Merkelova namerno poturila Vebera kao špicenkandidata, jer on nije politički ,,teškaš" i može lako da bude uklonjen tj. premešten na drugu poziciju bez da joj to napravi neki kuršlus u partiji.

[vememah]

Quote

The head of Romania's ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD), Liviu Dragnea, has been jailed for corruption after his attempts to appeal an earlier conviction failed.
...
Dragnea is widely viewed as the most powerful figure in Romanian politics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48421430?ocid=socialflow_twitter

[hazard]

A Rumuni su na referendumu (konsultativnom) sa 80% odbili vladine predloge za de fakto legalizaciju korupcije (oko čega su ovih godina svi oni protesti).

 

Rumunija >>> Srbija

[Roger Sanchez]

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