Iran: novi front

[Prospero]

Israel and White House Locked in an Info War Over IranPosted By John Hudson Friday, November 15, 2013 - 11:00 AM The White House and Israel are locked in an information war on Capitol Hill, and right now, Israel may be winning.All week, the Obama administration has provided facts and figures to lawmakers on its sanctions relief proposal to build support for a deal on Iran's nuclear program. But some members in Congress don't trust the data U.S. officials are providing -- they trust conflicting data provided privately by senior Israeli officials.According to multiple Congressional aides, Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Ron Dermer and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee are storming Capitol Hill in an effort to discredit the Obama administration's interim nuclear deal with Iran. The effort coincides with a visit by Israel's Minister of Economy Naftali Bennett, who is also speaking with lawmakers on the Hill. The campaign includes one-on-one briefings with lawmakers that provide data that strays from official U.S. assessments.As a result, lawmakers have begun citing a range of facts and figures the Obama administration says are wildly inaccurate.For instance, the Obama administration is offering Iran no more than $9 billion in sanctions relief, according to a source briefed by senior officials. But Israeli officials are telling lawmakers the U.S. is offering Iran $20 billion in sanctions relief or, if you ask Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz, up to $40 billion.Israeli officials are also saying that Iran's concessions would only set back its nuclear program by 24 days -- a fact also disputed by the administration."There are very large, inaccurate, false numbers out there in terms of what's on the table," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Thursday. She declined to call out Israeli officials, instead referring to inaccurate "reports." (Some of the reports just so happen to be sourced to Israeli officials.)The wide discrepancies led to a major clash of viewpoints during Wednesday's classified briefing between Secretary of State John Kerry and members of the Senate Banking Committee. One GOP Senate aide said the administration repeatedly shot down data cited by senators provided by Israeli officials. "You'd raise the Israeli perspective and they'd say, that's wrong -- the Israelis don't know what they're talking about," the aide told The Cable."The administration would interrupt, 'that information is inaccurate.'" One of the senators citing Israeli data was Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who said Kerry's briefing was "anti-Israeli.""The administration very disappointingly said, 'discount what the Israelis say," he told reporters on Wednesday. "I don't. I think the Israelis probably have a pretty good intelligence service." Kirk said he had been briefed on Wednesday by a "senior Israeli official," but would not name the individual. He is not alone in his belief that the Obama administration is misleading lawmakers and undervaluing its sanctions relief offer to the Iranians by at least $10 billion. The rival estimate is $20 billion -- a figure supported by the Israeli government and the think tank Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), which cites Israeli media reports in some of its analysis. During a House Foreign Affairs Committee briefing on Wednesday, a number of Republicans and Democrats nodded in agreement to the $20 billion figure during testimony by FDD's executive director Mark Dubowitz. "The sanctions relief package offered at Geneva, if ultimately approved, will rescue Iran's struggling economy," testified Dubowitz. "The dollar value of the proposed sanctions relief at Geneva could yield Iran a minimum of $20 billion or more." House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Ed Royce (R-CA) pegged the sanctions relief even higher in his opening statement -- suggesting the figure could be as much as $50 billion. Dubowitz told The Cable he was not surprised at the discrepancy between U.S. and Israeli assessments on sanctions. "I would say this is not unusual," he said. "I think there have been significant disagreements between the Israelis and the Americans on these sanctions questions. Significant differences on information on research and on the analysis and conclusions."Other arms control experts were puzzled as to why the Israeli assessment gained any traction at all over the American assessment -- since Israelis are not members of the so-called P5+1 countries negotiating a deal with Iran."Personally, I would tend to believe the estimates and figures of the people who are actually at the negotiating table rather than people that are getting this information second-hand, even if they're senior Israeli officials," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told The Cable. "This is in many cases a distortion of the physics and the reality."Regardless, the administration is struggling to win over lawmakers. On Wendesday, Republican senators expressed strong disappointment with the administration's briefings on the Hill. Now, critics of the administration's message include an increasing number of Democrats, such as Sen. Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Steve Israel, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. On Thursday night, Casey defied administration pleas to halt any additional sanctions on Iran and urged his colleagues to advance sanctions legislation in the Senate Banking Committee. "At this time, I see no reason to let up the pressure," Casey said.When asked about the "huge gap" between the administration and Congress on the Iran deal on Thursday, Psaki did not exactly beam with optimism. "Look, I'm not here to give you a whip acount of where members of Congress stand," she told reporters. "But as I mentioned a little bit earlier, the secretary felt it was an important conversation he had with members yesterday. He laid out the full construct of our approach ... He doesn't feel that anybody could come out of there without a full understanding of what the approach would be."Yochi Dreazen contibuted to this report. Getty Images

Miršajmere i Volte, svaka vam je bila k'o zlatna.

[Mimi]

nisam procitala sve sto je ranije pisano na temu, pa mi je zao ako se ponavlja, ali -da li je pomenuto da je jedan od verovatnijih razloga sto je usa u panic mode-u i u krevetu s do juce ljutim neprijateljem, iranom - BRICS i formiranje nove svetske banke i valute - a sto ce da ima stravicno lose efekte po dolar i njegov povlascen polozaj u trgovini?perspektivno napustanje dolara (izmedju ostalih i saudijci) ce imati ogromne posledice po usa i njenu ekonomiju, a izrael je samo najnoviji primer za tkzv. americko 'saveznistvo i prijateljstvo' i bahatu politiku inspirisanu iskljucivo brzim i lakim profitom

[Prospero]

Niđe veze.Jedno (dolar kao rezervna valuta) je na silaznoj putanji svakako ali to je dugoročan proces koji nije u potpunosti zavisan od američkih odluka. Drugo, dogovor sa Iranom je akutna stvar i očigledno je zrelo za kakav-takav dogovor dok je Obama u Beloj kući.Da su te dve stvari u nekekavom zajedničkom spletu, i da su im Saudijci bitni, od dogovora sa Iranom, pa ni naznake pregovora i dalje ne bi bilo ništa. No, vidimo da nije tako, te da obzir prema posebnim saudijskim interesima očito nije velik, niti nekakva strepnja da će Saudijci, ne znam, šta, preći na trgovinu u evrima. Možda hoće a možda nije ni bitno.

[Mimi]

nisam sigurna da nema veze i da nije bitno to sto se desava sa dolarom i njegovom silaznom (i eliminacionom) putanjom i taj proces se sve vise uoblicava.akutna stvar (dogovor sa iranom) je akutna iz prostog razloga sto usa u svojoj bahatosti nije na vreme shvatila da se svet vise ne sastoji od pijanog jeljcina i zatvorene kine (po retorici u medijima, mnogima je to jos uvek tesko da shvate), i sad, brze bolje pokusava da se prikaci na novog host-a (a posto je isisala prethodnog). btw, nigde nisam ni pokusala da kazem da je usa-i bitna saudija i njeni interesi, naprotiv - bas kao sto joj nije bitan ni iran ili bilo ko.+, obama i bela kuca su krenuli da prave ovaj dogovor sa iranom ne bi li ostali upamceni i po necem drugacijem od najvece blamaze svih vremena zvane 'obamacare', bas kao sto i svaka prethodna administracija, pri kraju mandata, pokusava da siluje i izsiluje nekakav pompezni 'legacy' u vidu bilo-kakvog bliskoistocnog 'istorijskog' dogovora.koji je tvoj take na naprasni interes usa za iran?

[Prospero]

Mislim da postoji uočljiva razlika u stavovima Bele kuće prema Iranu (pa i Bliskom istoku u celini) u odnosu na širi establišment, tj. na ono što je bilo glavna crte neokonskog i lib_intervencionističkog pogleda na taj prostor, uz AIPAC kao omniprisutni faktor.Priča o iranskom nuklearnom programu traje već 6-7 godina; negde 2011. je bila kritična godina u smislu "da li će nepasti Iran", a sve u svemu ulog u igri je podignut i sada se svi moraju opredeljivati za neko rešenje, ili bar naznaku rešenja. Zamorenoj američkoj javnosti je dobrodošao Rouhanijev izbor i njegova charm diplomacy (uzroci za nju su razni, od loše ekonomske situacije do odveć komplikovane geopolitičke igre sa KSA i ostalim protivnicima u regionu) nije mogla da ostane bez odjeka, dok Bibi valjda proklinje dan kada je Ahmadinedžad postao nebitan.IMHO, spremnošću da priča sa Iranom (od '79. prvi put na ovom nivou) i spremnošću da proguta knedlu i isprati Putina u Siriji, Obama pokazuje da želi da raskači SAD od tog regiona ili bar da rasplete veze na američke interese i interese drugih prema kojima SAD mogu zauzeti pragmatičn i fleksibilne stavove. Dakle, Obama kao gamechanger, msm bar negde kad se već cele godine brukao sa aferama i sada sa ovim "Obamacare"-om i ličnim & javnim reteriranjem o grandfather polisama. Sa jedne malo manje romantične strane :) Obami je potreban spoljnopolitički uspeh a na etosu javnog nezadovoljstva ratovima Bušove ere i dronovima Obamine, jedan fini, miroljubivi, civilizacijski iskorak bi puno značio slabom predsedniku u njegovom drugom mandatu.Ekonomija je mnogo složenija priča, od toga da se free trade koncept okreće protiv njegovih glavnih idejnih protagonista (Z. Evrope i SAD) do toga da je pozicija dolara bila ne normalna pojava nego upravo jedna posledica izuzetne američke moći na kraju 2SR i da se sada stvari samo vraćaju u nekakav balans, preko savremenih kriza, V i W recesija - Amerika se lagano spušta na zemlju, i postaj(ć)e podložna ekonomskim zakonitostima kao i svi drugi. Naravno, iskušenja da se prinudom po svetu deluje kako bi se ublažio/zaustavio taj trend uopšte nisu mala, mada ne vidim Obamu kao nekog ko bi to radio. Kenedi je od 1961. pretio Z. Nemačkoj da će povući trupe s njene teritorije ako ne pristane da snosi deo troškova kad je već počela da izvlači američke zlatne rezerve usled trgovinskog suficita, slično se do kraja '60ih dešavalo sa ostalim z.evropskim saveznicima. Ja sada ne vidim da u nekakvoj opciji budućeg biznisa sa Iranom Obama pokušava da nađe novo mesto za inflatirani (QE1, QE2, QE3) dolar niti da skreše imperijalne troškove, više mislim da je stvar čisto političko-bezbednosnog karaktera, tim pre što Iran očigledno nije neko kome se može naturiti sopstvena volja. Do toga bi moralo da prođe puno vremena da bi se osetilo pozitivno na američku ekonomiju u celini, mada ne sumnjam da bi i dobit za jedan elitni kružok bila dovoljan razlog da se cela zemlja stavi u službu te dobiti.

[Mimi]

ok, mogla bih da se slozim sa svim sto si napisao uz napomenu - da mi je jako tesko da posmatram am. spoljnu politiku u bilo kakvom kontekstu drugacijem od postizanja iskljucivo licnih interesa (tu ukljucujem i izrael tj., ne mislim da su am. interesi ugrozeni ili da se usa na bilo koji nacin zrtvuje na ustrb odnosa sa drugima ako je uz izrael, a mislim da ce rasplitanje tih veza samo stetiti usa).s druge strane, iako je bibi poznati flamer i lovac u mutnom koji pokusava na sve moguce nacine da utice na obamu - to svejedno ne znaci da izrael nece bombardovati iran istog trenutka kad se oseti egzistencijalno ugrozenim (mnogi se zavaravaju da usa ima kontrolu nad izraelom).s trece strane, uvek sam protiv sankcija i apsolutno podrzavam bilo kakvu normalizaciju odnosa s iranom (kog je upravo usa gurnula u krajnost i podsmeh ne bi li opravdala te iste sankcije), al' nemam ni volje, ni zelje da se slazem sa iznenadnim gamechanging otkrovenjima miroljubivog drone prvaka, kako se iran (preko noci) promenio i vise nije tako los.usa se spusta na zemlju vrtoglavo i rekla bih da je pre to razlog obamine 'gamechanging' uloge i civilizovanog ponasanja. inace, da mu se moze - sigurna sam da bi i dalje slusali besne pretnje i busanja u grudi.putin ih je prilicno spustio na zemlju, a svete mu se tako sto se ne propusta prilika da se insinuira da je gay

[Zavrzan]

a svete mu se tako sto se ne propusta prilika da se insinuira da je gay

[nautilus]

http://www.b92.net/i...8&nav_id=779156Bombaski napad na Iransku ambasadu u Bejrutu.Ovo je vec treci slican napad u Libanu u proteklih pola godine. Prva dva puta su na meti bila šitska predgradja.edit: bio je i cetvrti slican napad ali su meta bili suniti u Tripoliju. Edited November 19, 2013 by nautilus

[Аврам Гојић]

putin ih je prilicno spustio na zemlju, a svete mu se tako sto se ne propusta prilika da se insinuira da je gay

meni je potpuno ocigledno da je Putin homoseksualac i da je politicka borba protiv tzv. "homoseksualizma" zapravo Putinova borba protiv samog sebe, tj. nekakva libidinozna groteska u kojoj Putin zapravo samog sebe tuce po kurcu.

[Gandalf]

Bombaski napad na Iransku ambasadu u Bejrutu.

Izraelci ili dzihadi?

[Bane5]

ovi drugi.

[nautilus]

moja sumnja ide na neku od libanskih sunitskih grupa. ne mogu iranu i hezbolahu oprostiti ono mijesanje u siriji, a postoje tu i razne druge mrznje i interesi. (pokusaj guranja libana u gradjanski rat kako bi se nekako zaustavilo jacanje sita)e sad, ako su i imali pomoc sa strane onda je to jedna od frakcija iz sirijskog gradjanskog rata. a ko stoji iza te frakcije i da li je znao za ovo, djavo ce ga znati. u nekoj ludackoj teoriji, bez ijednog dokaza to bi prije bili saudijci nego izraelci.izraelu ne odgovara haos u libanu. sirija je vec druga stvar zato sto izrael kontrolise golan pa sa te strane nisu ugrozena njihova naselja.edit: odgovornost su preuzeli neki dzihadisti sto u siriji ratuju u okviru al nusre.

Edited November 19, 2013 by nautilus

[Prospero]

Matorci kontriraju AIPACu:

Majority Whip Dick Durbin

711 Hart Senate Bldg.Washington, DC 20510Dear Majority Whip Durbin,We support President Obama’s decision to seek a first phase understanding with Iran to limit Iran’s nuclear program now. The agreement under discussion would slow crucial elements of the Iran program, make it more transparent and allow time to reach a more comprehensive agreement in the coming year. The apparent commitment of the new government of Iran to reverse course on its nuclear activities needs to be tested to insure it cannot rapidly build a nuclear weapon. Such an agreement would advance the national security of the United States, Israel, and other partners in the region.For nearly two decades American Presidents with the strong support of the US Congress have worked on a two track policy of building ever more forceful sanctions against and pressure on Iran. combined with a willingness to turn to diplomacy when opportune. It now seems possible that this dual track approach could achieve our goals of preventing a nuclear armed Iran.The United States has had the unprecedented cooperation of its allies and virtually the entire international community in this two track strategy. Should the United States fail to take this historic opportunity, we risk failing to achieve our non-proliferation goal and losing the support of allies and friends while increasing the probability of war.Additional sanctions now against Iran with the view to extracting even more concessions in the negotiations will risk undermining or even shutting down the negotiations, More sanctions now as these unprecedented negotiations are just getting underway would reconfirm Iranians in their belief that the US is not prepared to make any agreement with the current government of Iran. We call on all Americans and the US Congress to stand firmly with the President in the difficult but historic negotiations with Iran.Sincerely,Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former National Security AdvisorBrent Scowcroft, Former National Security Advisor

[Mimi]

meni je potpuno ocigledno da je Putin homoseksualac i da je politicka borba protiv tzv. "homoseksualizma" zapravo Putinova borba protiv samog sebe, tj. nekakva libidinozna groteska u kojoj Putin zapravo samog sebe tuce po kurcu.

[расејан]

Matorci kontriraju AIPACu:

Ако је и матори Бжежински засвирао у ове гајде, биће скоро пропаст света. Он је бре измислио талибане само да би СССР добио свој Вијетнам... мора да овде има још нешто иза, не могу да верујем да он без неког дебелог разлога квари израелску производњу непријатеља.