Iran: novi front

[retronaut]

Izraelu ostaju jos dve opcije: pomorska i opcija koja ukljucuje moguce koriscenje sopstvenih balistickih raketa. Povezane su utoliko sto same za sebe nisu pretnja iranskim nuklearnim postrojenjima, odnosno imaju smisla jedino kao vektori oruzja koje sve vise lici na onu poslovicnu pusku na zidu iz prvog cina koja ce, kako to vec ide, do kraja predstave da – opali.Radi se o izraelskom nuklearnom arsenalu.Tu pre svega spada Jericho opcija, odnosno mogucnost da Izrael upotrebi svoje Jericho 2 i Jericho 3 balisticke rakete srednjeg dometa (IRBMs), Ove rakete mogu da dohvate ciljeve u Iranu: prema Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, Jericho 2 ima domet od 1,500 km, mada pojedinosti oko dimenzija ukazuju i na moguci veci domet – cak i do 3,500 km. Iranski ciljevi su, dakle, dohvatni iz lansera smestenih u Sdot Micha, jugoistocno od Tel Aviva. Jericho 2 nosi 1,500 kg tereta koji se sastoji od nuklearne bojeve glave snage oko 1 megaton. Izrael ih ima, veruje se, oko 90 spremnih za upotrebu.Jericho 3, relativno nova konstrukcija za koju se veruje da je pocela da ulazi u naoruzanje 2011. godine – danas ih ima operativnih 2 do 5 – je nesto sasvim drugo: dometa su oko 4,800 km, dok se veruje da ce kasnije verzije imati domet i do 6,500 km. Nose od jedne do tri nezavisne nuklearne bojeve glave.Cini se da je Jericho opcija neverovatna, ali su isto tako neverovatne izgledale i mnoge druge stvari.Ne samo na Bliskom istoku, i ne samo kada je Izrael u pitanju.Zapadni izvori, opet za sada, opciju Jericho smatraju malo verovatnom, a preventivnu izraelsku upotrebu nuklearnog oruzja nazivaju geopoliticki katastrofalnom.Ni manje ni vise od toga.Ponekad, too bitter to contemplate.O izraelskim pomorskim i podvodnim mogucnostima ima zaista malo podataka. Izraelska ratna mornarica trenutno ima 3 podmornice klase Dolphin, sa 2 iste podmornice u izgradnji i jos 6 koje se ugovaraju. Abrovi iz devedesetih godina proslog veka su govorili o izraelskim pokusajima da od Amerike nabave krstarecu raketu UGM-109 poznatu kao Tomahawk, ali i o americkom odbijanju da raketu isporuci. Sunday Times je pisao o izraelskim pokusajima da preprave UGM-84 raketu dometa oko 130 km, takozvani Sub Harpoon, i da je opreme odgovarajucom malom nuklearnom bojevom glavom, ali i o izraelskim naporima da razviju sopstvenu pravu krstarecu raketu. Od Omanskog zaliva do Teherana ima oko 1,300 km; nedostizno za izraelsku pomorsku silu. Ostaje doduse mogucnost da je Izrael u medjuvremenu postigao napredak u razvoju sopstvenih krstarecih raketa, ali – bez obzira na to – cinjenica da bi ove imale (vojnog) smisla samo opremljene nuklearnim bojevim glavama, ovu opciju svodi na opciju Jericho.Sa svim sto uz to ide.Samo, ne treba prevideti pomak: danas se opcija sa koriscenjem nuklearnog oruzja razmatra, makar i teorijski – za razliku od situacije od pre samo desetak godina kada se Izrael opravdano ponosio hirurski preciznim i savrseno uspesnim udarima. Sram ga bilo ko se seti one fraze da puska koja visi na zidu u prvom cinu, mora da opali negde tamo do treceg cina.Ne racunajuci obaveznu osudu Saveta bezbednosti UN, tesko je danas i zamisliti konsekvence izraelskog posezanja za nuklearnim oruzjem. Uzvratne pretnje od strane neposredno ugrozenih – mislim na islamske zemlje – nema. Nema, doduse, ili se barem ne vidi, ni volje da se Izrael energicno spreci u tome. Nema ni delegirane super sile koja bi ozbiljno zapretila Izraelu, a i one koje su nekada mogle da mu zaprete, radile su to ne toliko zarad Izraela ili njegovih neprijatelja, nego iz nekih sasvim drugih razloga.Kojih takodje vise nema.Izrael danas ima seseljizovanu vladu, laku na obaracu, ali gubi ili je vec izgubio, sva je prilika, najizraelskiji od svih elemenata koji su ga – otkako postoji – cinili Davidom okruzenim arapskim okeanom.Izgubio je image male drcne zemlje koja se odupire svojim agresivnim susedima, politikom ekspanzije odgurnuo od sebe i one arapske rezime na ciju je kakvu-takvu podrsku mogao da racuna i povukao konsekvence koje se ticu odnosa takozvane medjunarodne zajednice prema njemu.Kako je gubio image malog koji se suprotstavlja jacem od sebe, tako je gubio prednosti ‘aj da tako kazemo pionirskog duha i improvizacije sa kojima je postizao nevidjene vojne uspehe.Danas je Izrael manje izraelski nego ikada, krenuo je putem tehnologizacije kao panaceje i placa cenu imidza koji je sam sebi nametnuo: arapski svet nije onaj arapski svet od juce, a Izrael je sebe doveo u bezizlaznu situaciju u kojoj ce se iole ozbiljniji konflikt sa nekom od arapskih zemalja u kome bi imaogubitke vece od stotinak ljudi proglasiti neuspehom. Bas kao i gubitak vise od nekoliko aviona.To se, izmedju ostalog, pokazuje i vestima kakva je prilicno nezapazena vest iz maja u kojoj se kaze da jegrupa bivsih visokih obavestajnih funkcionera odlucila da javno iznese svoje neslaganje sa mogucim vojnim udarima protiv iranskog nuklearnog programa ili pretnje, kako se kome vise svidja.Nije lako sa penzionerima u Izraelu: nije zaboravljena guzva tamog gde treba kriticnih prvih dana rata 1973. godine koju su pravili penzionisani visoki oficiri sve deleci savete i nadvikujuci se. Nije manja ni tezina sadasnjih kriticara: bivsi direktor Mossad-a Meir Dagan nazvao je javno moguci napad na Iran 'najglupljom idejom za koju je ikad cuo'. Dagan je 29. aprila ove godine dalje objasnio da Iran nije izraelski problem, vec da se radi o problemu koji mora da resava medjunarodna zajednica.27. aprila, par dana pre Dagana, oglasio se jos jedan igrac teske kategorije, i te kakav: bivsi direktor Sherut habitachon haklali poznatijeg kao ShinBet a najpoznatijeg kao Shabak, Yuval Diskin, izjavio je da nema nimalo poverenja u sposobnost Natanijahua i njegovog ministra odbrane Ehuda Baraka da donosei odluke glede Irana, objasnjavajuci, pored ostalog, da se iste ne mogu donositi sa onoliko mesijanizma koliko ga on pripisuje izraelskom predsedniku vlade.I Diskin i Dagan se slazu da bi napad, pa cak i sama pretnja napadom, dala Iranu legitimno opravdanje za ubrzavanje svog programa nuklearnog oruzja, obaska sto bi i sam Izrael izlozila uzvratnim napadima Irana,Hezbolaha, Hamasa i svih zainteresovanih.Natanijahu i Barak su odbacili kritike, objasnjavajuci da poticu od ljudi koji imaju politicke ambicije i koji na ovaj nacin pokusavaju da udju u politiku. Dagan je dodatno optuzen da je ljut na premijera zbog toga sto je ovaj odbio da mu produzi mandat, a Diskin za zlovolju sto na mesto sopstvenog naslednika nije postavljen covek koga je on predlagao.

[Gandalf]

http://m.washingtonp...7ee9_story.html

Gwenyth Todd had worked in a lot of places in Washington where powerful men didn’t hesitate to use sharp elbows. She had been a Middle East expert for the National Security Council in the Clinton administration. She had worked in the office of Defense Secretary Dick Cheney in the first Bush administration, where neoconservative hawks first began planning to overthrow Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.But she was not prepared a few years later in Bahrain when she encountered plans by high-ranking admirals to confront Iran, any one of which, she reckoned, could set the region on fire. It was 2007, and Todd, then 42, was a top political adviser to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet....According to Todd and another witness, Cosgriff’s idea, presented in a series of staff meetings, was to sail three “big decks,” as aircraft carriers are known, through the Strait of Hormuz — to put a virtual armada, unannounced, on Iran’s doorstep. No advance notice, even to Saudi Arabia and other gulf allies. Not only that, they said, Cosgriff ordered his staff to keep the State Department in the dark, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY

Edited August 24, 2012 by Gandalf

[Prospero]

"ne puštajte majmuna u tenk"edit: doduše, lista ovakvih igrarija je baš onako long and distinguished.

Edited August 24, 2012 by buffalo bill

[Sirius]

Sitsko-sunitski rat koji se sve vise zahuhtava:Saudi Struggle vs. Iran Looks Likely to Get Worse

Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests. Its involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long conflict that will know no frontiers nor limits.Ongoing disorders in the island kingdom of Bahrain since February 2011 have set off alarm bells in Riyadh. The Saudis are convinced that Iran is directing the protests and fear that the problems will spill over the 25-kilometer long COSWAY into oil rich Al-Qatif, where the bulk of the Saudi Arabia's Shia are concentrated. So far, the Saudis have not had to deal with demonstrations as serious as those in Bahrain, but success there could encourage the protestors to become more violent.Protecting the oil is the first concern of the Saudi government. Oil is the sole source of the national wealth and is managed by state-owned Saudi Aramco. The monopoly on political power held by the members of the Saud family means that all of the wealth of the kingdom is their personal property. Saudi Arabia is a company country with 28 million citizens the responsibility of the Saud rulers.The customary manner of dealing with a problem by the patriarchal regime is to bury it in money. King Abdullah announced at the height of the Arab Spring that he was increasing the national budget by $130 billion to be spent over the coming five years. Government salaries and the minimum wage were raised. New housing and other benefits are to be provided. At the same time, he plans to expand the security forces by 60,000 men.While the Saudi king seeks to soothe unrest among the general population by adding more government benefits, he will not grant any concessions to the eight percent of the population that is Shia. He takes seriously the warning by King Abdullah of Jordan back in 2004 of the danger of a Shia Crescent that would extend from the coast of Lebanon to Afghanistan. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, and the Shia controlled government of Iraq form the links in the chain.When the Arab Spring reached Syria, the leaders in Riyadh were given the weapon to break the chain. Appeals from tribal leaders under attack in Syria to kinsmen in the Gulf States for assistance could not be ignored. The various blinks between the Gulf States in several Syrian tribes means that Saudi Arabia and its close ally Qatar have connections that include at least 3 million people out of the Syrian populations of 23 million. To show how deep the bonds go, the leader of the Nijris Tribe in Syria is married to a woman from the Saud Family.It is no wonder that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said in February that arming the Syrian rebels was an “excellent idea." He was supported by Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani who said, "We should do whatever necessary to help [the Syrian opposition], including giving them weapons to defend themselves." The intervention has the nature of a tribal issue, one that the prominent Saudi cleric Aidh al-Qarni has turned into a Sunni-Shia War by promoting Assad’s death.The Saudis and their Qatar and United Arab Emirate allies have pledged one hundred million dollars to pay wages to the fighters. Many of the officers of the Free Syrian Army are from tribes connected to the Gulf. In effect, the payment of wages is paying members of associated tribes.Here, the United States is not a welcomed partner, except as a supplier of arms. Saudi Arabia sees the role of the United States limited to being a wall of steel to protect the oil wealth of the Kingdom and the Gulf States from Iranian aggression. In February of 1945, President Roosevelt at a meeting in Egypt with Abdel Aziz bin Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, pledged to defend the kingdom in exchange for a steady flow of oil.Since those long ago days when the U.S. was establishing Pax Americana, the Saudis have lost their trust in the wisdom or the reliability of American policy makers. The Saudis urged the U.S. not to invade Iraq in 2003 only to have them ignore Saudi interests in maintaining an Iraqi buffer zone against Iran. The Saudis had asked the U.S. not to leave a Shia dominated government in Baghdad that would threaten the Northern frontier of the Kingdom, only to have the last American soldiers depart in December 2011. With revolution sweeping across the Middle East, Washington abandoned President Mubarak of Egypt, Saudi Arabia’s favorite non-royal leader in the region.Worried by the possibility of Iranian-sponsored insurrections among Shia in the Gulf States, the Saudis are asserting their power in the region while they have the advantage. For 30 years, they have been engaged in a proxy war with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Syria is to be the next battlefield, but here, there is a critical difference from what were minor skirmishes in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere. The Saudis, with the aid of Qatar and the UAE, are striking at the core interests of Tehran; and they have through their tribal networks anadvantage over an isolated Islamic Republic.Tribal and kinship relations are being augmented by the infusion of the Salafi vision of Islam that is growing in the Gulf States. Money from the Gulf States has gone into the development of religious centers to spread the fundamentalist belief. A critical part of the ideology is to be anti-Shia.Salafism in Saudi Arabia is promulgated by the Wahhabi School of Islam. The Wahhabi movement began in the eighteenth century and promoted a return to the fundamentalism of the early followers of the Faith.The Sauds incorporated the religious movement into their leadership of the tribes. When the modern state of Saudi Arabia was formed, they were granted control of the educational system and much else in the society in exchange for the endorsement of the authoritarian rule.When the Kingdom used its growing wealth in the 1970s to extend its interests far from the traditional territory in the battle against the atheistic Soviet Union, the Wahhabi clergy became missionaries in advancing their ideology through religious institutions to oppose the Soviets. More than two hundred thousand jihadists were sent into Afghanistan to fight the Soviet forces and succeeded in driving them out.There is no longer a Soviet Union to confront. Today, the enemy is the Islamic Republic of Iran with what is described by the Wahhabis as a heretical form of Islam and its involvement in the Shia communities across the region. For 13 centuries, the Shia have been kept under control. With the hand of Iran in the form of the Qud Force reaching into restless communities that number as many as 106 million people in what is the heart of the Middle East, the Saudis see a desperate need to crush the foe before it has the means to pull down the privileged position of the Saud Family and the families of the other Gulf State rulers.The war begins in Syria, where we can expect that a successor government to Assad will be declared in the Saudi-controlled tribal areas even before Assad is defeated. The territory is likely to adopt the more fundamentalist principals of the Salafists as it serves as a stepping stone to Iran Itself. It promises to be a bloody, protracted war that will recognize no frontier and will know no limits by any of the participants.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Sirius

[Sirius]

Blizzard cuts off Iranian access to World of WarcraftUS trade sanctions have led game maker Blizzard to cut off access to World of Warcraft (Wow) in Iran.Blizzard posted a statement to its player-forum site after hundreds of Iranian players said they had lost access to the game.Access was lost recently, it said, because it had "tightened up its procedures" to comply with sanctions.This also meant, said Blizzard, that it could not give refunds to players or transfer their accounts.

[bigvlada]

Who’s Sabotaging Iran’s Nukes?By Eli Lake | The Daily Beast – 13 hrs agoThe chief of Iran’s nuclear program says the power lines to his nuclear facilities were sabotaged. U.S. Special Forces have trained for operations inside Iran for years. Do these latest disclosures suggest they are already on the ground?On Monday, Fereydoun Abbasi, Iran’s vice president and the chief of its nuclear-energy agency, disclosed that power lines between the holy city of Qom and the underground Fordow nuclear centrifuge facility were blown up with explosives on Aug. 17. He also said the power lines leading to Iran’s Natanz facilities were blown up as well. On the day after the power was cut off at Fordow, an inspector from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) asked to visit the facility.“It should be recalled that power cut off is one of the ways to break down centrifuge machines,” Abbasi said, according to a copy of his prepared remarks to the IAEA on Monday. “Then during the early hours of next morning an agency inspector requested to conduct an unannounced inspection. Does this visit have any connection to that detonation?”In recent years, the West’s stealth war on Iran’s nuclear program has been waged through sabotage, industrial explosions, cyberviruses, and targeted killings. But until recently elements of the country’s civilian infrastructure were off limits in this not-so-secret shadow war.The disclosure is significant. To start, it is the first piece of evidence to suggest opponents of the Iranian program are targeting the country’s electrical grid and doing so on the ground. The U.S. military has studied Iran’s infrastructure closely. In 2009, a research lab attached to the U.S. joint staff and combatant commands known as the Joint Warfare Analysis Center discovered a weakness in Iran’s electrical grids that at the time would make it vulnerable to a cyberattack.The attack described by Abbasi suggests, however, a physical explosion as opposed to a cyberattack. He specifically said the power lines from Qom to the Shahid Ali Mohammadi complex at Fordow “were cut using explosives.” In this case, special-operations forces on the ground in Iran would carry out such an attack, as opposed to cyberwarriors half a world away.A retired U.S. intelligence officer who still works as a contractor with the U.S. military on operations with regard to Iran told The Daily Beast that U.S. Special Forces have trained for sabotage missions inside Iran for years. “From the first reports, this attack looks like something from our guys,” this source said. This former official also said U.S. Special Forces conducted a series of targeted attacks on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in late 2011 as the U.S. military was exiting Iraq. That stealth offensive is widely credited with stopping Iran from attacking U.S. forces as they left Iraq.If the United States conducted the sabotage of Iran’s power lines, it may help ease concerns from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Last week a private disagreement between Netanyahu and President Obama went public when the Israeli leader chastised Western countries for failing to set red lines for Iran, beyond which there would be a military strike. While at times Israel and the United States have disagreed on Iran policy, the intelligence services of the two countries continue to cooperate on efforts to sabotage the program.Patrick Clawson, the director of research for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said, “Covert American operations against the Iranian program is a good way to persuade the Israelis that the United States will back up its words with deeds.” Spokesmen for the National Security Council, the CIA, and the IAEA all declined to comment on Abbasi’s disclosure.Overall the shadow war against Iran’s nuclear program is one reason some top national-security officials in Israel have said they have more time. Meir Dagan, the chief of Israel’s Mossad between 2002 and 2010, said in an interview aired by CBS’s 60 Minutes in March that bombing Iran would be the “stupidest idea” he’d ever heard. Dagan said other measures conducted by Israel and the United States, which he did not elaborate on, had done enough to delay Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon.But it’s unclear whether the sabotage by Western spies is still working. Abbasi in his speech, for example, said Iran was now taking countermeasures to protect its scientists. He said Iran’s nuclear facilities have become better at spotting cyberattacks.Whether a cutoff in the power supply is successful depends on whether the nuclear facility has a backup power supply. Robert Avagyan, a research analyst at the Institute for Science and International Security, said, “If a cutoff of power is aimed at the centrifuges, it would be aimed at slowing down the centrifuge. Sudden changes of spinning speed can cause severe damage to the centrifuge. But this kind of attack would not be effective if there was a backup power source that prevents such a power cutoff.”The latest IAEA reports paints a mixed picture on the success of Iran’s nuclear program. On the one hand, Iran has yet to install the advanced centrifuges it has been developing for at least 10 years. The latest report says the centrifuges it has installed at the Fordow facility are still based on the 1970s-era model first stolen by Pakistani nuclear scientist, A.Q. Khan.At least in his presentation to the IAEA, Abbasi said Iran’s program was resilient in the face of sabotage. He said, “Plotters of attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities have realized, through the IAEA published reports, that they have not gained any success in this regard.”Related from The Daily Beasthttp://news.yahoo.com/sabotaging-iran-nukes-084500157--politics.htmlCall Of Duty Modern Warfare 3: Captain Price vs Sepah

[Gandalf]

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se32hATeIvw[/media]

http://walt.foreignp...rotest_too_muchWINEP, as noted, is a key organization in the Israel lobby. It was founded in 1985 by three individuals: Larry and Barbi Weinberg, who had formerly been the president and vice-president of AIPAC; and Martin Indyk, who was previously deputy director for research there. These founders understood that AIPAC's efforts would be enhanced if there was a separate, seemingly "objective" research organization to provide consistently "pro-Israel" analysis and commentary, while AIPAC concentrated on more direct lobbying activities. Although WINEP claims that it provides a "balanced and realistic perspective" on Middle East issue, anyone who spends a few hours examining its website and reading its publications will realize this is not the case.

Edited September 29, 2012 by Gandalf

[zorglub]

Jel' ovo for real? Šta se desilo pa se o ovakvim stvarima opušteno priča pred kamerama? I koliko ti ljudi uopšte imaju uticaj na bilo šta?

[Čutura]

:)

[urkozamanje]

A Chinese shipyard has delivered the first of 12 supertankers to Iran, giving Tehran extra capacity to transport its oil to Asia as it struggles against Western sanctions"..but it is unclear if the ship has the permits necessary to call at global ports" ;)

[Prospero]

Defecting Iranian cameraman brings CIA priceless film of secret nuclear sitesDEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 5, 2012, 1:01 AM (GMT+02:00)Tags: Iranian defector CIA Ahmadinejad Intelligence Iran nuclear Hassan Golbankhan and Rev Guards chiefsdebkafile reveals one of the CIA’s most dramatic scoops in many years, and epic disaster for Iran. Our most exclusive Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s personal cameraman, Hassan Golkhanban, who defected from his UN entourage in New York on Oct. 1, brought with him an intelligence treasure trove of up-to-date photographs and videos of top Iranian leaders visiting their most sensitive and secret nuclear and missile sites. The cameraman, who is in his 40s, is staying at an undisclosed address, presumably a CIA safe house under close guard.He stayed behind when Ahmadinejad, after his UN speech, departed New York with his 140-strong entourage. For some years, Golkhanban worked not just as a news cameraman but personally recorded visits by the Iranian president and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of top-secret nuclear facilities and Revolutionary Guards installations.When he left Tehran in the president’s party, his luggage was not searched and so he was able to bring out two suitcases packed with precious film and deliver it safely into waiting hands in New York.The Iranian cameraman has given US intelligence the most complete and updated footage it has ever obtained of the interiors of Iran’s top secret military facilities and various nuclear installations, including some never revealed to nuclear watchdog inspectors. Among them are exclusive interior shots of the Natanz nuclear complex, the Fordo underground enrichment plant, the Parchin military complex and the small Amir-Abad research reactor in Tehran.Some of the film depicts Revolutionary Guards and military industry chiefs explaining in detail to the president or supreme leader the working of secret equipment on view. Golkhanban recorded their voices.Our sources also disclose that, in late September, he took the precaution of sending his wife and two children out of Iran on the pretext of a family visit to Turkey. They are most likely on their way to the United States by now.From his years as a member of the loyal Bassij militia, the cameraman earned the complete trust of Iran’s security services and was able to reach his professional pinnacle as personal photographer for the two most eminent figures in the country, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, with the task of recording their most confidential pursuits.This was his second visit to New York. The first time, a year ago, US intelligence was able to make contact and persuade him to defect with his stock of priceless photos and film.Although Golkhanban’s defection to the United States and request for asylum was disclosed to the media some days ago, Tehran has not made any comment.

[Muwan]

Prestižni trofej "Pljeskavica decenije" zasluženo odlazi tupsonima koji snimaju takve posete i povrh toga ne čuvaju snimke u najstrože obezbeđenom sefu državne bezbednosti nego ih ostavljaju snimatelju na slobodno raspolaganje :Hail:Potkategoriju "Bezbednosna pljeskavica" takođe ubedljivo odnose tupsoni čiji bezbednjaci ne primećuju ništa vredno provere u tome što nedelju dana pred putovanje glavnog režimskog kamermana u Hameriku njegova porodica odlazi da poseti tetku u zemlji članici NATO

[zorglub]

Isto pomislio... možda im Persijanci smeštaju igru? :-) Sve ostalo bi značilo da su neopevani dunsteri.

[Prospero]

hm...

US-Iranian nuclear talks fail. Iran has plutonium for 24 Nagasaki-type bombsPosted December 15, 2012 by josephwoukDEBKAfile Special Report December 15, 2012, 12:03 PM (GMT+02:00)The secret, one-on-one nuclear negotiations President Barack Obama launched with Iran have run into a blank wall. A senior Iranian team member, Mostafa Dolatyar, said Friday, Dec. 14 in New Delhi that the diplomatic process for solving the nuclear issue with Iran was in effect going nowhere, because the demand that Tehran halt its 20-percent enrichment of uranium “doesn’t make sense.”He went on to say: “They [the world powers] have made certain connections with purely technical issues and something purely political. In so far as this is the mentality and this is the approach from 5 + 1 (the Six World Powers) – or whatever else you call it – definitely there is no end for this game.”debkafile: The phrase “or whatever else you call it” may be taken as Iran’s first veiled reference to the direct talks with Washington that were launched Dec. 1 in the Swiss town of Lausanne.Mostafa Dolatyar is not just a faceless official. He is head of the Iranian foreign ministry’s think tank, the Institute for Political and International Studies, as well as a senior member of the Iranian team facing US negotiators in Lausanne. His remarks were undoubtedly authorized by the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who, through him, posted a message to Washington: If the enrichment suspension demand stands, the game’s over.After more than 15 years of on-and-off, largely aimless, nuclear diplomacy with world powers and evasive tactics with the UN nuclear agency, Tehran is for the first time showing signs of impatience and not just is usual disdain. This is because two things have changed:1. For all those years, Tehran availed itself of every diplomatic opening for protracted bargaining about its nuclear program for the sake of buying time, free of pressure, to push that program forward. Now, the Iranians are telling the US and Europe that they have arrived at their destination. For them, time is no longer of essence, as it may be for the West.2. The second development was revealed on Dec. 5 by The Wall Street Journal in a short leader captioned “From Bushehr to the Bomb.” This revelation was not picked up by any other Western – or even Israeli – publication despite its sensational nature.Drawing on US intelligence sources, the paper suggested that the withdrawal of 136 fuel rods from Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr in mid-October – on the pretext of wandering metal bolts – and the rods’ return in the last week of November “could have been a test run for the Iranians should they decide to reprocess those rods into weapons-grade plutonium.”American, Russian and Israeli nuclear experts have always maintained that the technology for extracting plutonium from fuel rods was too expensive and complicated to be practical – and certainly beyond Iran’s capacity.The Wall Street Journal begs to differ: “…experts tell us that the rapid extraction of weapons-usable plutonium from spent fuel rods is a straightforward process that can be preformed in a fairly small (and easily secreted) space.”This means that Tehran can easily manufacture plutonium bombs without building a large plutonium reactor like the one under construction at Arak.The paper goes on to reveal that, by this method, Iran could extract 220 pounds (just under 100 kilos) of plutonium, enough to produce as many as “24 Nagasaki-type bombs” – a reference to the World War II bombing of the Japanese city on Aug. 9, 1945.One of those bombs – nicknamed “Fat Man” (after Winston Churchill) – is equal to 20 kilotons.debkafile’s military and intelligence sources note that if this disclosure represents the true state of Iran’s nuclear program, the game really is over. The diplomacy-cum-sanctions policy pursued by the West to force Iran to abandon enrichment and shut down its underground facility in Fordo has become irrelevant. So, too, have the red lines Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu drew so graphically before the UN Assembly on September 27.What Mostafa Dolatyar was saying in effect is that Iran has outplayed its adversaries up to the game’s finishing line.

[MancMellow]

Nema trika da znamo sta se tu tacno desava. Mozda su outplayed, a mozda su i hteli da budu outplayed, koliko god daleko od pameti, nije mi nemoguce da zamislim...