Grčka - enormni dug, protesti oko mera štednje

[Budja]

Superiska.

 

 

 

Support from those aged 18-44 - once the backbone of SYRIZA's support according to pollsters - has plummeted. The most popular party for 18-24-year-olds now is the far right Golden Dawn, while SYRIZA languishes in fourth place, data by the pollster Alco show.

 

http://www.ekathimerini.com/201193/article/ekathimerini/comment/ahead-of-greek-election-syrizas-lost-generation-deserts-tsipras

[MancMellow]

Superiska.

 

 

http://www.ekathimerini.com/201193/article/ekathimerini/comment/ahead-of-greek-election-syrizas-lost-generation-deserts-tsipras

 

Jbg, to je rezultat politike koju je EZ imala prema Syrizi tokom prve polovine godine i svi iole pametniji su govorili da će to biti rezultat

[vememah]

Voleo bih da vidim tačne podatke, vrlo sumnjam u to da Zlatna zora i približno ima onoliku podršku među mladima kao Siriza u januaru.

 

Neki navodno pametni su tvrdili da Sirizu treba držati kao malo vode na dlanu jerbo posle nje može da dođe samo Zlatna zora (ZZ), pa vidimo da to ni u ludilu nije slučaj, posle Sirize će Siriza u koaliciji s nekim većim od Anela ili opet Nova demokratija.

 

To plašenje Zlatnom zorom je inače veliki pucanj u prazno, možda se neki klinci napale, ali kad skontaju da tako samo bacaju glas pošto niko s njima neće u koaliciju na sledećim izborima će dobar deo tih otići negde drugde, tako da ZZ može unedogled da hvata napaljene klince i gubi ih kao glasače za koju godinu.

 

Lider ZZ Mihaloliakos je bez premca najomraženiji političar u Grčkoj (pretposlednji na slici), tako da ko njih uzme u koaliciju nema čemu da se nada na sledećim izborima, a da sa takvom podrškom sam napravi vladu može samo da sanja. Uz to, minimalne su šanse da mu značajno poraste rejting, on vodi stranku od osnivanja, jebene 22 godine, i Grci ga znaju kao zlu paru.

 

Edited September 5, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Nobelovac Felps za Project Syndicate:

 

Edmund S. Phelps

Edmund S. Phelps, the 2006 Nobel laureate in economics, is Director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University and author of Mass Flourishing.

The Foundations of Greece’s Failed Economy

NEW YORK – Too many politicians and economists blame austerity – urged by Greece’s creditors – for the collapse of the Greek economy. But the data show neither marked austerity by historical standards nor government cutbacks severe enough to explain the huge job losses. What the data do show are economic ills rooted in the values and beliefs of Greek society.

Greece’s public sector is rife with clientelism (to gain votes) and cronyism (to gain favors) – far more so than in other parts of Europe. Maximum pensions for public employees relative to wages are nearly twice as high as in Spain; the government favors business elites with tax-free status; and some state employees draw their salaries without actually turning up for work.

There are serious ills in the private sector, too – notably, the pervasive influence of vested interests and the country’s business and political elites. Profits as a share of business income in Greece are a whopping 46%, according to the latest available data. Italy came in second at 42%, with France third, at 41%. (Germany’s share is 39%; the United States’, 35%; and the United Kingdom’s, 32%.) Insiders receive subsidies and contracts, and outsiders find it hard to break in.
 
Astoundingly, young Greek entrepreneurs reportedly fear to incorporate their firms in Greece, lest others use false documents to take away their companies. According to the World Bank, Greece is one of the hardest places in Europe to start a business. The result is that competition for market share is weak and there are few firms with new ideas.

This stunted system springs from Greece’s corporatist values, which emphasize social protection, solidarity instead of competition, and discomfort with uncontrolled change. These values may well be beneficial for family life; but, even with the best of intentions, they are a recipe for a static economy and stultified careers.

Indeed, Greece’s labor productivity (GDP per worker) is only 72% of the level in the UK and Italy, and a mere 57.7% of that in Germany. And surveys indicate that mean life satisfaction in Greece is far below that found in the wealthiest EU countries (the EU15). Contrary to claims by the Greek government, corporatism impoverishes the less advantaged. EU data on poverty rates in 2010 put Greece at 21.4% – far higher than the mean EU15 rate of 16.7%.

To be sure, Greece saw productivity gains after World War II – but mostly from increases in education and capital per worker, which can go only so far. Two important sources of broad prosperity are blocked by Greece’s system. One is an abundance of entrepreneurs engaged in detecting and exploiting new economic opportunities. Without them, Greece does a poor job of adjusting to changing circumstances (an imperative emphasized by Friedrich Hayek). Greece’s much-lauded shipowners, for example, were too slow to adapt to containerization, and thus lost their market share.

The other source of broad prosperity is an abundance of business people engaged in conceiving and creating new products and processes – often termed “indigenous innovation.” Here, Greece lacks the necessary dynamism: venture capital investment flows are smaller, relative to GDP, in Greece than in any other EU country. So Greece’s economy has scant ability to create sustained productivity growth and high human satisfaction.

Some economists believe that these structural considerations have nothing to do with Greece’s current crisis. In fact, a structuralist perspective illuminates what went wrong – and why.

For several years, Greece drew on the EU’s aptly named “structural funds” and on loans from German and French banks to finance a wide array of highly labor-intensive projects. Employment and incomes soared, and savings piled up.

 

When that capital inflow stopped, asset prices in Greece fell, and so did demand for labor in the capital-goods sector. Moreover, with household wealth having far outstripped wage rates, the supply of labor diminished. Thus, Greece went from boom to outright slump.
 
The structuralist perspective also explains why recovery has been slow. With competition weak, entrepreneurs did not rush to hire the unemployed. When recovery began, political unrest last fall nipped confidence in the bud.

The truth is that Greece needs more than just debt restructuring or even debt relief. If young Greeks are to have a future in their own country, they and their elders need to develop the attitudes and institutions that constitute an inclusive modern economy – which means shedding their corporatist values.

Europe, for its part, must think beyond the necessary reforms of Greece’s pension system, tax regime, and collective-bargaining arrangements. While Greece has reached the heights of corporatism, Italy and France are not far behind – and not far behind them is Germany. All of Europe, not just Greece, must rethink its economic philosophy.
 
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/foundation-of-greeces-failed-economy-by-edmund-s--phelps-2015-09

[Anduril]

Jbg, to je rezultat politike koju je EZ imala prema Syrizi tokom prve polovine godine i svi iole pametniji su govorili da će to biti rezultat

 

Da li su utilitaristicka predskazanja logika koju treba slediti i recimo ovde - ne treba prihvatati izbeglice jer iole "pametnij govore" da je rezultat povecana ksenofobija, podela u drustvu i uspon desnice.

[MancMellow]

Da li su utilitaristicka predskazanja logika koju treba slediti i recimo ovde - ne treba prihvatati izbeglice jer iole "pametnij govore" da je rezultat povecana ksenofobija, podela u drustvu i uspon desnice.

 

Apsolutno mi izmiče logika ovog poređenja. Molim te proširi malo. 

[vememah]

Izašla je anketa agencije PAMAK, koja je pred prošle izbore imala najbolju prognozu (obe vodeće stranke promašene za manje od 1%, a njihova razlika za tačno 1%) i po njoj su Siriza i Nova demokratija poravnate.

 

 

Opcije redom: Siriza, Nova demokratija, Zlatna zora, Potami, Komunisti, ANEL, Pasok, Narodno jedinstvo, Unija centrista, Drugo, Ne znam/ne želim da kažem.

 

U odnosu na anketu iste agencije od prošle nedelje, Siriza je porasla za 2, a Nova demokratija za čak 5 procentnih poena (rezultati na dnu).

 

Da su dve stranke trenutno poravnate kaže i sveža anketa agencije MRB. Druge nove ankete daju tesnu prednost jednoj ili drugoj strani, pa tako po Metronu ND vodi sa 0,8%, a po VoiceNewsu Siriza sa 1,2%. Od ovoga odstupa jedino anketa Bridging Europe koja Sirizi daje prednost od neverovatnih 8,6%. Međutim, oni nisu sertifikovana agencija za ispitivanje javnog mnjenja, već think-tank blizak Sirizi i nisu se bavili anketama pred prošle izbore.

 

Evo još nekih slajdova iz PAMAK-ove ankete, među kojima i onaj po kome 88% građana vidi eventualnu vladu Zlatne zore kao negativan razvoj događaja.

 

 

 

Koja vlada bi vam dala najveće poverenje u budućnost: vlada sa Sirizom kao okosnicom i premijerom Ciprasom, vlada sa ND-om kao okosnicom i premijerom Meimarakisom, vlada nacionalnog jedinstva sa premijerom određenog konsenzusom, drugo, ne znam/ne želim da odgovorim.

 

Šta mislite o mogućnosti da vladu napravi (opcije: Siriza, Nova demokratija, Zlatna zora, Potami, Komunisti, ANEL, Pasok, Narodno jedinstvo):

 

 

 

Poverenje u političare (redom: Cipras (Siriza), Meimarakis (ND), Mihaloliakos (Zlatna zora), Teodorakis (Potami), Kucumbas (Komunisti), Kamenos (ANEL), Genimata (Pasok), Lafazanis (od Sirize otcepljeno Narodno jedinstvo).

 

I za kraj, kako su glasali u januaru oni koji sada najavljuju apstinenciju (Siriza, Nova demokratija, Zlatna zora, Potami, Komunisti, Anel, Pasok, Drugo, Poništili/ubacili prazan listić, Nisu glasali):

 

 

 

 

Cela anketa na grčkom:

http://www.skai.gr/files/1/maira/pamak_1-3_septemvriou.pdf

[Anduril]

Apsolutno mi izmiče logika ovog poređenja. Molim te proširi malo. 

 

Nije poredjenje nego logika utilitarizma koja menja pravila u hodu kao oko Grcke.

 

A ista logika oko izbeglica rezultira onda recimo i ovim:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/escaping-europe-refugee-crisis-by-peter-singer-2015-09

[BlackGeorge]

Valjda je sasvim logično pitanje "koji će nam kurac Siriza ako smo progutali 3. bejlaut i osteriti? Daj bolje originalne primenjivače™ mera trojke, tj. ND".

To je to.

[Prospero]

September 17, 2015 8:16 pm

 

Greek far right party rides wave of xenophobia

By Henry Foy in Athens

 

 

 

Nikolaos Michaloliakos, Golden Dawn leader, salutes the crowd at Wednesday's far-right rally in Athens

 

As blood-red flares blaze from behind the chanting, baying crowd, sending clouds of smoke swirling into the warm Athens evening, Nikolaos Michaloliakos strides on to a stage that bears a swastika-like logo and raises his fist to the crowd.

 

“Close the borders! Make the army and the navy seal our borders and not let people enter illegally,” bellows Mr Michaloliakos, stabbing a finger in the air. “When it gets dark, the Greeks live in fear. . . Golden Dawn will fight this fear.”

 

Golden Dawn, Greece’s far-right neo-fascist political party, is riding a wave of xenophobia and euroscepticism among a population battered by years of recession, unemployment and austerity. As Greeks prepare to go to the polls in Sunday’s general election, its popularity is on the rise.

 

“A vote for Golden Dawn means a no to the memoranda,” party leader Mr Michaloliakos told the Athens rally on Wednesday, referring to the harsh reform programme demanded by Greece’s international creditors for its most recent €86bn bailout. “It means no to allowing illegal immigration; no to suppression.”

Amid a polarisation of often angry and tired voters — who are being asked to vote for a fifth time in sixth years and in the third national ballot in nine months — many Greeks are turning to parties on the extreme left and right.

 

Opinion polls suggest that Golden Dawn will come third in Sunday’s election, called in August following the collapse of the leftwing Syriza government. It could be the only established party to increase its share of the vote.

 

As Syriza and its conservative opposition New Democracy vie for first place, a rising anti-politics movement, combined with fears over increasing immigration and anger at what many Greeks view as bullying and intimidation from the EU, is a boon for the far-right nationalists. 

 

“It’s the only party that actually cares about Greek people,” said Ewa, a 23-year-old unemployed graduate from Piraeus who was among those attending the Athens rally. “They are pure people; pure Greeks.”

 

The country's economy has shrunk by a quarter since 2010, 40 per cent of Greeks under the age of 25 are without work and almost a third of the population live below the poverty line. It is a climate that Golden Dawn and other extremist parties have sought to exploit.

 

The party is on track to win seven per cent of the vote, though many supporters think 10 per cent is within reach. Either scenario would make it the third-largest party in the parliament and, under some coalition possibilities being discussed by political analysts, the de facto opposition.

 

“We want to be the national opposition. We are here for the good of our country, our nation, our heritage,” said Ilias Panagiotareas, who is standing for election.

 

Mr Panagiotareas, who is set to enter parliament as the party’s second MP from Athens, admits that immigration initially drove people to the party.

 

“Eighty per cent of Greeks do not like immigrants. But we have 3m immigrants,” he said. “We do not want them in Greece. . . We can’t have ordinary Greeks unemployed and then have millions of illegal immigrants here.”

 

But rising euroscepticism and a view that the main parties have failed to defend Greece’s interests in Brussels is now bringing in new supporters, as the party looks to present a broader set of policies.

 

Mr Panagiotareas advocates leaving the eurozone and adopting a new national currency. He also claims Greece is owed €500bn from Germany for reparations after the second world war.

 

Although most of the party organisers at the Athens rally were burly men in their thirties in the typical party outfit of black T-shirt and jeans, the crowd was a snapshot of Greek society.

 

Elderly men gave the Roman salute used by the Nazis, while young girls waved flags, as chants of “Out with the foreigners!” and “Greece belongs to the Greeks!” rang out from a crowd of more than 500 supporters.

 

The party hit the headlines two years ago when 19 members, including Mr Michaloliakos, were arrested in connection with the murder of Pavlos Fyssas, an anti-fascist rap artist. A trial of the Golden Dawn leader and 68 others, accused of crimes including money laundering and extortion, began this year.

 

Speaking to Greek radio on Thursday Mr Michaloliakos stoked the controversy, saying: “Golden Dawn takes political responsibility for the murder . . . of rapper Pavlos Fyssas,” and adding: “There is no criminal responsibility involved.” The defendants deny all charges.

 

Mr Panagiotareas has insisted the case is politically motivated, designed by the establishment powers to crush the party, which was a fringe movement only a few years ago. But despite running an election campaign with many of its members behind bars, it won almost 7 per cent in the general election in January.

Since then, the surge in refugees and migrants from the Middle East arriving on Greek islands or sleeping rough in central Athens has boosted the party’s popularity.

 

"We should not underestimate them,” said George Koumoutsakos, a senior New Democracy MP. “The cocktail at the moment is very helpful for them . . . the poor economy, unemployment, immigration, the refugee crisis. . . This is fertile ground for Golden Dawn.”

 

 

[vememah]

SYRIZA takes 2.5% lead in latest polls before elections

 

19.09.2015 10:33

 

SYRIZA, the party of former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, is leading by 2.5 per cent against New Democracy (ND) in two polls conducted by GPO and the University of Macedonia (UoM), Greek TV stations Mega and SKAI reported.

 

According to the GPO survey, SYRIZA received 28.5 per cent, ND 26 per cent, Golden Dawn 6.1 per cent, PASOK 6 per cent, Communist Party 5.7 per cent, Potami 4.8 per cent, Popular Unity (PU) 3.9 per cent, ANEL 3 per cent and Union of Centrists 2.8 per cent. The undefined vote is 12 per cent.

 

In the UoM poll, SYRIZA had 31 per cent, ND 28.5 per cent, Golden Dawn 6.5 per cent, Potami 4.5 per cent, Communist Party 5 per cent, ANEL 2 per cent, PASOK-DIMAR 5 per cent, Popular Unity 3 per cent, Union of Centrists 3 per cent and Other 3 per cent. Another 8.5 per cent answered ‘Don’t know, don’t answer’.

 

Source: ANA-MPA

 

http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/greece/135325/syriza-takes-25-lead-in-latest-polls-before-elections

[vememah]

Resursi za današnje izbore (glasačka mesta se zatvaraju u 1800 CET, tada će biti exit pollova ili barem telefonskih anketa obavljenih danas, a prvi rezultati stižu oko 20-21):

 

Katimerinijev blog na engleskom sa automatskim ažuriranjem

http://www.ekathimerini.com/201628/article/ekathimerini/news/election-blog

 

ERT1 uživo

http://webtv.ert.gr/ert1-live/

 

Skai uživo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh9XIVWyZSo (moguće vraćanje 4 h unazad)

 

FT o Ciprasu i znacima njegovog bahaćenja:

 

As Sunday’s ballot approaches, Greece’s fifth general election in six years, Mr Tsipras finds himself struggling to rally fatigued and disenchanted supporters who are questioning his leadership as never before.

Some senior party members now describe him as a “lone wolf” who prefers to govern with a small cadre in his executive office and who is detached from the rump of the parliamentary party and at a distance from the grass roots support base.

“We have had five years’ worth of politics in nine months,” said Nassos Iliopoulos, a member of Syriza’s political secretariat and former leader of the party’s youth wing. “And he has been at the centre of all that.”

Even his own supporters now see him as an egotist and a politician first, and a radical revolutionary second.

He may not have helped matters this week when he posted on his Twitter page a cartoon of himself as the messiah, complete with a halo. “Nobody can save a country without its people. Abstaining from voting reinforces corruption,” he wrote below the cartoon, which was captioned: “There will not be any miracles if you abstain.”

And it is not just his political choices that have opened him up to allegations of betraying his principles. Mr Tsipras caused a media storm this month when his eldest son enrolled at one of Greece’s most prestigious and expensive private schools. Meanwhile, he spent the summer at a villa owned by a wealthy Greek shipowner, commuting to his office by helicopter.

“Coming to power changed everything,” said a former Syriza MP. “The prime minister and his team stepped aside from the party. They stopped the collective processes.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca6582ec-5e02-11e5-97e9-7f0bf5e7177b.html

Edited September 20, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Po exit pollovima Siriza očekivano uzima bonus, ANEL i Unija centrista ušli u parlament, za Narodno jedinstvo neizvesno. Zlatna zora treća partija po jačini.

 

 

Ovo gore je zajednički exit poll agencija MRB, Alco, GPO, Marc i Metron Analysis.

 

Za razliku od njih, Univerzitet Makedonija je radio anketu i dobio vrlo slične rezultate.

 

Edited September 20, 2015 by vememah

[vememah]

Ima još jedan exit poll, agencije Kapa za To Vima, i on daje gotovo iste rezultate uz malo veću verovatnoću da će otcepljeno antimemorandumsko Sirizino krilo Narodno jedinstvo ući u skupštinu. Po njima je najkritičnija partija za cenzus Unija centrista.

 

Sleva nadesno:

Siriza, Nova demokratija, Zlatna zora (neofašisti), Pasok, Komunistička partija Grčke, To Potami, ANEL (dosadašnji manji partner u vladi), Narodno jedinstvo, Unija centrista, Antarsija, drugo.

Edited September 20, 2015 by vememah

[Jozef K.]

Koliko se razumem u račun, ovo nije dovoljno Sirizi za vladu? Kako im stoji koalicioni partner? Ona desničarska partija.

 

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