Coronavirus Covid-19 - opšta tema

[Caligula]

 

btw. cemu smeh kaCam pogodio

 

ne mora da se umre od gripa iskljucivo u krevetu ali svakako zarazen covek lezi makar par sati pre nego sto umre (na poljani ili krevetu, kako god)

[vememah]

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

Wuhan medic: 'Many more infections than official numbers show'

 

In Wuhan, patients are being transferred to a new 1,000-bed hospital that officials hope will help to isolate the virus's spread. But one medical technician says they are overwhelmed and cannot handle all the cases.
    
DW: Do you trust the official numbers of infections and deaths? 

Jiesi Luo*: I think there are many more infections and deaths from coronavirus than have been officially reported. When preliminary tests determine that a patient has a lung sickness, the nucleic acid test (NAT), which detects viruses, cannot always be carried out because the waiting list is too long. The patient is therefore not diagnosed. 

Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus. 

What is the current risk of infection in Wuhan? 

Patients showing symptoms often have to wait for hours before they receive treatment. They are prescribed medicine and sent home to self-isolate. The waiting rooms are full of people coughing. Healthy people who have to wait in these conditions risk infection. 

It takes a long time to get to another hospital. If someone doesn't own a car, they depend on taxis, but only two taxis are officially assigned to each housing block. 

Only a few volunteers take people to the hospital. The emergency number 120 is totally overwhelmed and no longer works. People have been forced to walk to the hospital.

Is there enough protective clothing, like masks?

Protective masks and disinfectant are sold out. Hospitals also have a very limited supply. In the meantime, a lot of donations have arrived in Wuhan. However, regulations for doctors to change masks and protective clothing every four to six hours cannot be maintained. 

The first of two new hospitals has been opened in Wuhan, is that good news? 

The 2,000 extra beds in the newly built hospitals are not enough, because there are not enough medical personnel. Doctors and nurses are completely overwhelmed and the system organizing shifts is collapsing. Long-term treatment is necessary to recover from a lung sickness. Authorities are currently mobilizing capacity in smaller clinics. 

 

*Jiesi Luo (pseudonym) is a medical technician at a hospital in Wuhan. He declined to give his name due to security concerns.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/wuhan-medic-many-more-infections-than-official-numbers-show/a-52252563

[banecare1]

nova moda kasirki u mom komsiluku

izgleda da je bila odusevljena sto je fotografisem

 

 

[Caligula]

Pa valjda i ti nosis neku zastitu majkumu

 

 

[banecare1]

55 minutes ago, Caligula said:

Pa valjda i ti nosis neku zastitu majkumu

 

 

nosim, moram jbg. slabo te maske pomazu, vaznije je da se peru ruke, ali svi nose

 

bio do ofisa da obavim jedan razgovor - na ulazu ti mere temp (36.6).

vratia se doma, na ulazu u kompleks opet mere (35.7 jer sam se smrzod u hladnoj kanc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[precog]

za zaludne statisticare:

 

Mapa

[Jumanji]

[Redoran]

Ljudi, ovo je koliko-toliko ozbiljan forum. A ozbiljna je i situacija sa ovim virusom. Preklinjem vas onako čovečanski da ne prenosite baš sve na šta naletite na tviteru. Nije svako ko se sruši na ulici u desetomilionskom gradu umro od virusa na licu mesta a da pre toga nije pokazao nijedan simptom. Nije svaki video klip sa tvitera autentičan. Nije svaki anonimni izvor koji tvrdi da zli komunistički krematorijumi rade 24/7 pouzdan izvor. Hajde da ne pratimo ovo kao tabloidi nego kao ozbiljan svet.

 

 

Edit: ne odnosi se na Jumanji nego na ŠOKANTNE snimke i izjave sa poslednjih par strana (VIDEO).

[banecare1]

+1

u kini je to kaznjivo, posto stvara paniku i neracionalno ponasanje. 

 

odlicno su se organizovali po tom pitanju ovde. upravo sam dobio info koja ilustrujje kako rade. 

 

 

 

[dùda]

3 hours ago, Redoran said:

Hajde da ne pratimo ovo kao tabloidi nego kao ozbiljan svet.

apsolutno podržavam

ja sam eto jedna koja sam nasela , ali naprosto zato što mi ne ulazi u glavu da u ovakvoj situaciji može tako da se podvaljuje. 

 

[Dzudi]

3 hours ago, Redoran said:

Hajde da ne pratimo ovo kao tabloidi nego kao ozbiljan svet.

 

 

+1 

 

Podržavam. 

[vememah]

 

[vememah]

Predsednik Kineske akademije medicinskih nauka bio na TV-u, evo glavnih momenata nastupa koje je zapisao neki lik na Redditu (modovi su sklonili isprva postavljenu oznaku da je u pitanju nepotvrđena vest, što verovatno znači da je još neko ko zna kineski potvrdio da tekst odgovara sadržaju linkovanog videa) - nit' su u stanju da sve sumnjive testiraju zbog čega zvanična statistika nije tačna, nit' da sve stave u bolnice ili druge objekte (dvorane i slično) u kakav-takav karantin, nit' su u stanju da procene kad će doći do tačke preokreta tj. jenjavanja epidemije.

 

Ukratko, nije uopšte neverovatno da su u pravu oni skeptični glasovi koji govore da ovo možda uopšte neće prestati već da će ovaj vuhanski koronavirus kružiti godinama svetom, tim pre što se stanje potpuno ugašene ekonomije ne može održavati večno, ljudi moraju da imaju od nečega da kupe hranu o čemu svedoče ove navodne ispovesti običnih Kineza sa društvenih mreža prevedene na engleski, a objavljene na istom podreditu.

Quote

A 'turning point' can't be predicted yet as we don't know the number of actual cases - Chinese Scholar Wang Chen on state media - Feb 5, 2020

 

source: http://live.weibo.com/show?id=1042152:0f9b4eb526268514435989a397af60fe

News 1+1 show is one of the daily major broadcasting about the situation on nCoV outbreak in China, hosted by Bai Yansong. This is the main source for people in China on the coronavirus outbreak. He usually interviews officials and scholars in the show, from the gov leaders of Wuhan to important scholars. (And the leaders of Wuhan did terribly on the show a few days ago) Here is a summary of today's show(summarizing as I am listening, so it's only a slap-dash job).

In the opening, Bai Yansong introduces the new numbers, in and out of Hubei, then in and out of Wuhan

Outside of Hubei, the growth is steady, but the Hubei Wuhan number is very worrying.

There are lack of beds and all kinds of supplies in Wuhan which is obvious. (He shows a chart showing the availability of Wuhan hospital beds as of Feb 4. Most hospitals have zero empty beds.)

From now on, the designated hospitals will be only taking confirmed & serious/critical cases, and suspected & critical cases.

The makeshift coronavirus hospitals will be in use immediately, taking confirmed mild cases.

Interview with the head of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Wang Chen:

Q: How's the situation right now? We see that the pressure on Wuhan is enormous.

A: The situation is very serious. A large number of patients are not admitted into hospitals in time, which is a huge problem. Their activities will cause more infections at home and in the community. This is the most important reason of the worsen situation.

Q: You just mentioned group infection at home. But this is conflicting. People are following guidance and staying at home, but then if one of them gets infected, everyone is infected.

A: They key is to admit the patient into the hospital in time and put them in quarantine. There are a lot of mild cases not admitted because the hospitals are taking mostly serious and critical cases. But people with mild symptoms have greater mobility and therefore more likely to spread the virus.

Q: After coming to Wuhan and evaluate the situation, you suggest makeshift hospitals. Why, and how much do you expect it to improve the situation?

A: We are solving the problem of not having the ability of take in more patients. We have tried methods like expanding the designated hospitals but we still have limited spaces. Even though those makeshift hospitals don't have ideal medical condition, they can immediately provide thousands of beds. They can be used for confirmed mild cases who need medical help and be quarantined. This is the key method to stop further infections.

Some discussion about the names of the makeshift hospitals, and that they are only for basic medical care for mild cases, also for them to be monitored and transferred to proper hospitals when needed. The goal is to use the least resource and time to increase the capacity for patients. It is not the best but a practical solution.

Q: People are worried about cross infection in those hospitals, are the worries justifiable?

A: To some extent. But they are infected with the same virus. The mild cases can mostly take care of themselves but 1. they need some none-intensive medical caring and 2. most importantly, be separated from family and community. It's the urgent method in a big outbreak like this.

Q: We heard that 90% of cases are mild but as for who will go into these hospitals, the accuracy becomes critical as people not actually infected with nCoV will likely catch it in such hospitals. How can we make fast and accurate judgement here?

A: We will only take those tested positive and we will not take the elderly, or those with pre-existing conditions as they are more vulnerable. It's a community for mild cases, with limited medical care. Again I repeat this is not the ideal solution but only an optimal, practical one at current situation.

Q: Is there mature, fast and accurate testing methods yet?

A: Our ability for testing is improving but not enough. Different tests produced by different companies vary in accuracy. However, one important note about the virus: not every case will come out positive. There are a large number of cases where people who have been in close contact with confirmed cases, and show similar symptoms, but we are unable to test them positive and they have become suspected cases. In Wuhan we suggest these cases be "clinically confirmed" in order for better management. Looking back at the confirmed cases, we only get about at most 30%~50% chance of positive in strep tests, even for confirmed patients.

Q: Are those hospitals dangerous for the medical workers?

A: It's the same for them there or in other hospitals. It's more dangerous for the patients, but for example, we will do a flu test and make sure they are not just having a flu. The quarantine level won't be as good as specialized hospital but it's the only practical solution now. We have to focus on the most significant problem which is the availability.

Q: In the past we have the problem of mild and serious cases mixing together in the hospital with no enough beds. Will the 11 new makeshift hospitals, possibly adding 10k+ beds, completely solve the current problem in Wuhan, if the outbreak doesn't make a dramatic turn?

A: Frankly we can't make sure of how many patients are there in Wuhan at the moment. We hope that the number won't exceed our current number of 10k-20k designed for these hospital. However, if the cross infection in the community are not stopped, that number is up in the air, which is exactly the purpose of our special makeshift hospitals. This is special method under extreme conditions. Otherwise there is no way the hospitals take in that many patients. We have to quarantined the infected and control it. This has to be done. We hope that the society will be understanding of this.

Q: "Admit all that should be admitted, treat all that should be treated" is what the Wuhan leaders mentioned. Are we working towards that goal now?

A: The makeshift hospitals are a step towards that goal, and we also need to increase the testing ability to meet the diagnosing need. I have to remind everyone that the current reported number for new confirmed cases are not an accurate number for actual new cases. They are the number of tested positive. Not all new cases are tested. Therefore there is a difference between the reported number of confirmed cases and actual new cases. Please note the different concepts.

Q: Which means we have a backlog?

A: Very likely. And this has to be emphasized. We need to be practical and realistic and be decisive.

Q: So, for the backlog problem we now face the question of suspected cases. We solve the mild/serious cases problem with makeshift hospitals. Are there good solutions for suspected cases?

A: For suspected cases, it's clear they should be quarantined in single rooms. Our hope is that they will be tested as soon as possible to determine if they should be taken into the makeshift hospitals, or hospitals if they are very sick. We also have 'clinically confirmed' cases among suspected cases who are not tested but highly likely to have it based on the symptoms, and they should be taken into hospital immediately too.

Q: Do we have good news for medicines for nCoV?

A: Remdesivir in clinical test today; studying other medicines too. The curing of single cases ≠ scientifically proven effective.

Q: When will scientific research be of use for this outbreak?

A: The more urgent need is the medicines which we mentioned before. Vaccines for coronavirus are difficult to produce and we hope it will be invented in the future.

Q: How much do we know about this virus now, after battling with it for this long?

A: Very limited. We have good foundations and hope in the near future we will have useful results. (I am leaving out a lot of info here and in the last two Q because they are less time-sensitive. Basically, scientific research takes time.)

Q: I have been asking when will we see the 'turning point' of the outbreak everyday, to the point I feel as if I am forcing you scholars to do fortunetelling. Today you say that, there are no grounds for the prediction of a 'turning point' or 'peak' yet. Can you elaborate on that?

A: 'Turning point' means when we see the number stabilizes and eventually reduce, but the problems are 1. we don't know the 'base' for our judgement, which is the current number of infection; 2. many patients are still out there not quarantined, the infection in the community and at home is still a serious problem. If no decisive measures are taken, it is unpredictable. Plus there is the problem of possible future variation. Also there is the problem of people travelling and going back to school/work. I am so glad the gov decides to extend the CNY break. We need to track those come out of Wuhan in the 14 day incubation period and then the possible local carriers, before people start working. Lastly, the weather might be contribute to the situation, too.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/ezdspv/a_turning_point_cant_be_predicted_yet_as_we_dont/

Edited February 6, 2020 by vememah

[gone fishing]

2 hours ago, vememah said:

 

na tom brodu ima i 14 naših državljana, 12 pečalbara i 2 buržuja, juče su izveštavali o 10 inficiranih, danas je to skočilo na 20, u svakom slučaju odličan karantin/bolnica za praćenje širenja ovog virusa u opštoj populaciji i za eventualno isprobavanje experimentalnih terapija

 

edit

- onaj text samo u opširnoj formi potvrđuje sve kraće vesti u prethodnih par dana, ko je pratio topić može da preskoči

- jedina zanimljivost je da su one montažno-demontažne bolnice predviđene za blaže potvrđene slučajeve, kako bi se normalne bolnice rasteretile za ozbiljne slučajeve...

-u toj provinciji hubej već ima 20k potvrđenih slučajeva, šta bi se tek desilo da vlasti nisu stavile wuhan u izolaciju pre 14 dana, da su zakasnile samo za koji dan, kada su wuhanci i ovako stigli da zaraze do sada još 8k kineza

Edited February 6, 2020 by gone fishing

[Redoran]

8 hours ago, dùda said:

apsolutno podržavam

ja sam eto jedna koja sam nasela , ali naprosto zato što mi ne ulazi u glavu da u ovakvoj situaciji može tako da se podvaljuje. 

 

 

Dudo, malo je jedan život da ti makar izbliza opišem šta čitave armije što umobolnika što plaćenika rade po društvenim mrežama. Taj rat narativima je normalnom ljudskom umu potpuno nepojmljiv. Jedno vreme sam mislio da su Indijci i Pakistanci šampioni tog ludila ali otkako je krenulo ovo u Kini osovina Hong Kong - Muslimansko Bratstvo drži prvo mesto i ne pušta ga. Na to dodaš standardnu anglosaksonsku mešavinu geopolitike i bele supremacije i dobijaš sve te ŠOKANTNE snimke, insajderske ispovesti anonimnih doktora i priče o komunističkim krematorijumima, leševima koji trunu po hodnicima bolnica, vojsci koja ubija zaražene po ulicama, i lekarima-uzbunjivačima koje je progutao mrak. Rekao sam skoro ali nije naodmet da ponovim: ako jednog dana bude izbio ono baš pravi vojni sukob ili neka društvena arhikriza svetskih razmera, više ljudi će da izgine i nastrada od lažnih vesti i snimaka nego od realnih borbenih dejstava, zaraza ili prirodnih nepogoda. 

 

I da ne misliš da su to samo neki anonimni botovi, evo kako ugledni^tm mediji koriste priliku koja im se ukazala (WSJ od pre tri dana):

 

China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

Its financial markets may be even more dangerous than its wildlife markets.