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BrExit?

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Budja

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed that if a Westminster general election were called, Labour would reap the largest share of the vote with 27%; the Brexit party would garner 20% ahead of the Conservatives on 19%. The Liberal Democrats would win 14%, followed by ChangeUK (7%) and the Greens (5%) with Ukip trailing on 2%.

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Anduril

Odicno - no deal is the way to go. Mozda im zaista treba jedan pozamasan ekonomski sok da malo pospreme medijsko-politicki svinjac. A ako ne pospreme, onda ionako nije bilo vajde.

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hazard

Britain divides, but does not rule

 

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PARIS — Britain has finally managed to split France and Germany over Brexit after nearly three years in which the two continental powers marched in lockstep. The trouble for the U.K. is that it is too busy fighting itself over the future it wants with the European Union to take advantage of the rift.

 

Cracks between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared last month, after British Prime Minister Theresa May requested a delay in the U.K.’s departure to break an impasse in parliament. At a special EU summit in Brussels, the French leader insisted any extension to the negotiating period be brief. The German chancellor, meanwhile, advocated giving Britain as long a breathing space as possible.

 

Behind the official positions, some German politicians are still fervently hoping the British will change their minds and stay, whether via a second referendum, a general election or some longer-term delay. Some say privately a no-deal Brexit could have as severe economic consequences as the 2008 financial crisis. So they want to give London enough time to organize another vote.

 

Amélie de Montchalin, Macron’s new secretary of state for European affairs, points to France’s own experience of a ballot being ignored after voters rejected the EU’s draft constitution in a 2005 referendum only to see the same provisions enacted in the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon. That fueled support for Euroskeptic populists. She said: “2005 created a deep democratic rupture ... The whole U.K. elite, the whole of the City [of London financial center], are hoping we’ll find a way to help them stay. But that’s not democracy."

 

From the outset of the negotiations, British diplomats tried to drive a wedge between Berlin and Paris to extract more favorable trade terms from the EU.

 

That strategy misread the priority all EU leaders gave to keeping the 27 remaining member states united, preserving the integrity of the European single market and avoiding an à la carte precedent that could undermine the value of membership.

 

The nature of the Franco-German split makes it particularly difficult for London to exploit.

 

The Germans want the U.K. to stay, which neither major British political party officially supports. The French want the U.K. to go quickly, but is not prepared to offer concessions on the Irish border issue that has divided the Conservative Party and its Democratic Unionist Party allies.

 

Both France and Germany would welcome a British request to remain in a permanent customs union with the EU, which would largely remove the need for border controls between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. But that is the opposition Labour Party’s policy, and is unacceptable to many Conservative MPs. May has made an independent trade policy one of her red lines.

 

Many Conservatives cling to a vision of negotiating ambitious free-trade agreements with the world’s major economies as one of the great prizes of Brexit. That's despite evidence that the much larger EU market offers larger benefits, and that the potential plunge in trade with continental Europe dwarfs potential gains with partners such as the United States, China or India.

 

“Brexit with a customs union would be largely political and not change much economically,” De Montchalin said, arguing that even if the U.K. were to crash out without a deal, it would be back 10 days later begging for an agreement because of the immediate economic disruption.

 

The view in Paris is that keeping the U.K. in the EU against the wishes of the British electorate would be worse than a hard Brexit.

 

On one thing, France and Germany do seem to agree. The fate of Brexit is out of their hands, and they are not ready to offer big concessions to help the British come to a decision.

 

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Marvin (Paranoid Android)

Dosta dobar rezime.

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jms_uk

I to je to za cross-party dogovore...


86efdfc9c605ecf34b0facd4835df4c9.jpg


Sent from my iTelephone using Tapatalk

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hazard

I to je to i za Terezu Mej

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Roger Sanchez
Posted (edited)

:jerry::heart::happy:

Spoiler

D7Hx8Q1W0AAl6BN.jpg

 

Edited by Roger Sanchez

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hazard

 

 

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Budja

Nisam siguran kako moze da intepretira rezultate kako ih intepretira, ja ne mogu da uocim neki jassan pattern.

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hazard

Rezultati (VB samo, bez NI):

 

Jasno Remain (LD + GRN + SNP* + CHUK + Plaid): 40,4%

Jasno Leave (BRX + CON* + UKIP): 44%

 

Ne zna se raspodela (LAB): 14,1%

 

* - moguće je da se među SNPovcima krije poneki Leaver, a među CONovcima po neki Remainer

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hazard

Doduše, BBC to prenosi ovako

 

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Budja
Posted (edited)

A ako stavimo LAB i CON, onda je otprilike 55: 45.

 

Sad, medju tih 23% combinovanih LAB i CON lezi zec.

 

Bolji rezultati za Remain od ocekivanog, ali, uzevsi takodje u obzir da iako je izlaznost bila ok ona nije na nivou ni parlamentarnih izbora a daleko od referenduma 2016, sve je pata karte.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/remain-hard-brexit-what-uk-european-election-results-tell-us

 

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2. A narrow pro-remain lead is confirmed when Conservative and Labour votes are factored in

 
 
 
Read more

The merit of the first two approaches is that neither tries to take into account the dwindling numbers of Conservative and Labour voters, where it can be argued that both parties retain some support across the Brexit divide. But even so, remain comes out ahead.

Various pollsters have come up with their own formula for how to account for those who stubbornly stuck to the traditional two main parties. Over the weekend Deborah Mattinson of Britain Thinks suggested Tory voters were 80% pro-leave and that a majority of Labour voters – 60% – supported remain.

That yields 2.1 million more for leave composed of 1.2 million Conservativesand 938,000 Labour voters and 1.7 million more for remain made up from 302,000 Tories and 1.4 million for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. Applying that to the totals so far would produce 8m votes for leave and 8.4m to remain.

Or to put that another way: 48% for leave and 51% for remain (the exclusion of minor parties is why the figures don’t add up to 100%): a narrow remain win by 478,000 votes.

 

Edited by Budja

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Budja

Kakve su konsekvence?

Konsekvence su da je soft brexit off the table.

No Deal vs. Remain.

 

Posto su CON MPs manje hard brexit od baze, a No Deal ne moze da prodje Parlament, vidimo se na izborima sa BoJo ili Raab vs. Neko iz Lab (moze da ne bude Korbin).

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Budja
Posted (edited)

Sto se generalnih izbora tice, obratiti paznju:

 

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In the North East, Yorkshire and East of England constituencies, the Brexit party was dominant, winning in Newcastle, Sunderland, Hull, Leeds, Bradford and Sheffield.

 

 

Ako su izbori Brexit izbori, s obzirom da London, cenim. nosi manje poslanika od ostatka (ne znam da li su izborne jedinice striktno proporcionalne), izborna mapa favorizuje Brexitase.

 

Takodje, REM glasovi nisu dobro rasporedjeni, ako se gleda regionalna mapa izbora, Remainersi su rasturili u Londonu i Skotskoj, docim Brexitasi imaju prednost u ostatku. Rasturanje je dobro za referendum, ali bi za izbore korisnija bila bolja regionalna zastupljenost.

Edited by Budja

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