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Jolly Roger

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Juraj Špiler, policajac, Hrvat.

 

DR_JURAJ_SPILER_BRANISLAV_MAKSIMOV_slika

 

Pre rata progonio komuniste i ustaše. U sukobu sa ustašama prvi put ranjen.

U Aprilskom ratu služba ga zadesila u Novom Sadu. Mađari ga hapse, kao visoki policijski službenik predodređen za streljanje, ranjen. Stari drugovi ustaše ga takođe traže, on brže-bolje postaje član Kulturbunda, imenom Georg i prelazi u Banat.

Krvoločni sadista sa dosta uspeha proganja komuniste i njihove simpatizere u Banatu. Lično učestvuje u akcijama, prilkom hapšenja Žarka Turinskog ovaj ga je dva puta ranio pre nego što je poginuo.

1944. beži u Nemačku, sada više nije popularno biti Nemac tako da je ponovo Juraj. Amerikanci ga izručuju i 1949. je obešen u Zrenjaninu, gradu koji nosi ime čoveka čije je ubistvo organizovao i u njemu učestvovao. 

Za potrebe filma postao Šicer.

sicer_620x350.jpg

Edited by čekmeže
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Poslastica, konacni dokaz  -_-:

 

Emma_zpsynwpjvcg.jpg

Slikarka od zanata, Emma Löwenstramm, koja je kako se veruje jedno vreme u carskom gradu Becu poducavala slikarstvu jednog aspiranta za likovnu akademiju imenom Adolf Hitler, autorka je dela koje se na aukciji 2009. vodilo pod imenom:

 

A Chess Game: Lenin with Hitler — Vienna 1909

 

H_L_Chess_zpsdslmcjwh.jpg

 

Dakle, Adolf i Володя u slobodnom vremenu igraju sah, Bec, 1909.

Prodato.

 

Za poznavaoce, stanje posle 22 poteza, reprodukcija zahvaljujuci naporima 1 uglednog sahovskog kluba i navodno sacuvanom spisu jednog kibicera:

 

Situacija_22_zpstfycg9nr.jpg

Edited by namenski
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https://medium.com/@nntaleb/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.9ucy2l804

 

 


Syria and the Statistics of War

Trust none of what you hear, some of what you read, half of what you see
 
When Pasquale Cirillo and I examined the historical accounts of wars for our statistical analysis of violence, we discovered huge holes –people take numbers for gospel, yet many accounts were fabrications. Many historians, political “scientists”, and others for fall for them, then get to write books. For instance we saw that the scientific entertainer Steven Pinker based his analysis of the severity of the An Lushan rebellion on a shoddy overestimation –the real numbers of casualties could to be lower by an order of magnitude. Much of Pinker’s thesis of drop in violence depends on the past being more violent; it thus gets further discredited (the thesis is shaky anyway as Pinker’s general assertions conflict with the statistical data he provides). Peter Frankopan, in his magesterial The Silk Roads, seem to get the point: estimations of casualties from the Mongol invasions were inflated as their accounts exaggerated the devastation they caused in order to intimidate opponents (war is not so much about killing as it is about bringing submission). 

 

But it is not just the bullshitting of Steven Pinker: numbers for many wars seem to have been pulled out of a hat. Some journalist cites some person at a conference; it finds it way to Le Monde or the New York Times, and that number becomes fixed for future generations. For our attempt to build a rigorous method of quantitative historiography, we devised statistical robustness techniques: they consist in bootstraping “histories” from the past, considering the past a realization between the lowest and the highest estimate available, producing tens of thousands of such “historical paths” and evaluate how “robust” an estimator to changes in the aggregate. More depressingly, we found that no historian had bothered to do similar cleaning up work or robustness check – yet the statistical apparatus is there to help.

 

Ceo rad od 24 strane koji ce biti objavljen na Nobel simpozijumu u junu (The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do The Data Really Say?, P. Cirillo & N. Taleb) je ovde, kapiram da ce biti interesantan nasim resident istoricarima (Dr. Arslanagicu, Mancu i Prosperu), ja jos nisam imao vremena da procitam

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