Luka said:

Kuc, kuc, ima li koga?Nema Bojana, a ja sam baš htela da mu kažem da i američki NIC (National Intelligence Council) u izveštaju „Global Trends 2025“ razmatra i Youth Bulges. S tim što NIC to radi u okviru 1 sveobuhvatne, sistemske analize raznih faktora koji će uticati na globalne trendove u budućnosti. I što se, za razliku od Heinsohna, u ovom izveštaju ne očitava demografski determinizam, nego se o YB populacijama govori kao o potencijalnom izvoru nestabilnosti, a kaže se da to može da bude i demografski bonus – kad se youth bulges pretvore u “worker bulges” (kad se obrazuje radna snaga i kad postoji povoljno okruženje za investicije, uslovi zapošljavanja, itd)Evo tog malog odlomka o YB:

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Persistent Youth BulgesCountries with youthful age structures and rapidly growing populations form a crescent stretching from the Andean region of Latin America across Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and the Caucasus, and then through the northern parts of South Asia. By 2025, the number of countries in this “arc of instability” will have decreased by 35 to 40 percent owing to declining fertility and maturing populations. Three quarters of the three dozen “youth bulge countries” projected to linger beyond 2025 will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa. The remainder will be located in the Middle East and scattered across Asia and among the Pacific Islands.The emergence of new economic tigers by 2025 could occur where youth bulges mature into “worker bulges.” Experts argue that this demographic bonus is most advantageous when the country provides an educated work force and a businessfriendly environment for investment. Potential beneficiaries include Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, and the Maghreb states of North Africa (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The current youth bulges in the Maghreb states, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iran will diminish rapidly but those in the West Bank/Gaza, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and adjacent Afghanistan and Pakistan will persist through 2025. Unless employment conditions change dramatically, youth in weak states will continue to go elsewhere—externalizing volatility and violence. The populations of already parlous youthbulge states—such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—are projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan’s and Nigeria’s populations are each projected to grow by about 55 million people. Ethiopia and DROC will likely add about 40 million each, while the populations of Afghanistan and Yemen are projected to grow more than 50 percent larger than today’s. All will retain age structures with large proportions of young adults, a demographic feature that is associated with the emergence of political violence and civil conflict.www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Evo me. Pozdrav. Tek povremeno obidjem forum. Nekako mi je i zao sto nema vise diskusije o filozofskim, pa i socioloskim temama, jer mi deluje da je dobar kvalitet diskusija. Ova domaca istorija me ne privlaci mnogo.Ono letos kada smo diskutovali na ovu temu bio sam potrazio i knjigu Keneta Volca. S obzirom da nisu imali, umalo tada da uzmem Zivorada Kovacevica (nista ironicno - mislim da je on jedan dobar diplomata, koji zna da sagleda stvari).Pa izgleda da Zapad razmatra YB rizik i da pomno prati dogadjaje. Sada je pitanje i kakav ce biti odgovor na to? Mislim da i oni smatraju da je nekakva eskalacija nasilja moguca, ako ne i neizbezna. Njihove sluzbe sigurno imaju odredjeni stav, ali se kao i uvek razmatraju i druge opcije.Taj workers bulge, je potencijalno dobro resenje. Jer ukoliko te nerazvijene zemlje sa velikim udelom mladog stanovnistva ekonomski ojacaju, mozda ce mlad narastaj biti zadovoljan polozajem koji bi u buducnosti zauzeo. Sa druge strane postoji korelacija izmedju prirodnog prirastaja i nivoa standarda. Tamo gde je veci standard manji je prirastaj. Znaci kada se zaposle i poraste im standard imace i oni porodice sa dvoje dece. Tako nesto se upravo i dogodilo u pojedinim zemljama. Da li je to i izvodljivo to je druga stvar.

Gde si Bojane.

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Nekako mi je i zao sto nema vise diskusije o filozofskim, pa i socioloskim temama, jer mi deluje da je dobar kvalitet diskusija.

Postavi ti neku temu..Imam ja i elektronsku verziju Volca, daću ti ako hoćeš. Pošalji mi svoj mail.

  Luka said:

Gde si Bojane.Postavi ti neku temu..Imam ja i elektronsku verziju Volca, daću ti ako hoćeš. Pošalji mi svoj mail.

Hvala. Poslao sam ti mejl u poruci.Videcu ovih dana da uoblicim neka razmisljanja i postavim temu. Bez obzira sto nije toliko ziva diskusija vidim da se ovde ipak ocekuje neki kvalitet od onoga koji postavi temu.