Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Yonkers United]

Kao sto je vecina vas cula Njujorski Wall street je u ponedeljak osvanuo bez dva velika imena Lehman Brothers i Merrill Lynch.Blizu kraha je i AIG kako sada stvari stoje samo cudo moze da ga spasi.http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080916/earns_goldman_sachs.html?.v=9http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080916/aig.html?.v=8http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080916/fed_interest_rates.htmlLehman BrothersLehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various financial services to corporations, governments and municipalities, institutions, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Capital Markets, Investment Banking, and Investment Management. The Capital Markets segment represents institutional customer flow activities, including secondary trading, financing, mortgage origination and securitization, prime brokerage, and research activities in fixed income and equity products. These products include a range of cash, derivative, secured financing, and structured instruments and investments. It also offers equity and fixed income products, including U.S., European, and Asian equities; government and agency securities; money market products; corporate high grade securities; high yield and emerging market securities; mortgage- and asset-backed securities; preferred stock; municipal securities; bank loans; foreign exchange; and financing and derivative products. In addition, this segment invests in real estate, private equity, and other long-term investments. The Investment Banking segment provides advice to corporate, institutional, and government clients on mergers, acquisitions, and other financial matters. It also raises capital for clients by underwriting public and private offerings of debt and equity instruments. The Investment Management segment consists of private investment management, which provides investment, wealth advisory, and capital markets execution services to high net worth and middle market institutional clients; and asset management that provide customized investment management services for high net worth clients, mutual funds, and other small and middle market institutional investors. Lehman Brothers Holdings was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York with regional headquarters in London, the United Kingdom and Tokyo, Japan.Merrill LynchMerrill Lynch & Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment, financing, insurance, and related services to individuals and institutions worldwide. Its Global Markets and Investment Banking segment offers various global market services, which facilitate client transactions and markets in securities, derivatives, currencies, commodities, and other financial instruments for clients; provides financing, securities clearing, settlement, and custody services; and engages in principal and private equity investing and proprietary trading activities. This segment also provides a range of investment banking services, such as securities origination services for issuer clients, including underwriting and placement of public and private equity, debt, and related securities, as well as lending and other financing activities; and advises clients on strategic issues, valuation, mergers, acquisitions, and restructurings. It primarily serves corporations, financial institutions, institutional investors, and governments. The company?s Global Wealth Management segment offers global private client services primarily delivered by its financial advisors; commission and fee-based investment accounts; and banking, cash management, and credit services, including consumer and small business lending and visa cards. This segment also provides trust and generational planning, retirement services, and insurance products. In addition, it offers global investment management services, which creates and manages hedge funds and other alternative investment products for various clients. This segment serves clients, such as individuals, small- to mid-size businesses, and employee benefit plans. Further, Merrill Lynch & Co. provides research services focusing on fundamental equity research, fixed income and equity-linked research, economics and foreign exchange research, and investment strategy research. The company was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in New York, New York.AIG(American International Group)American International Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: General Insurance, Life Insurance and Retirement Services, Financial Services, and Asset Management. The General Insurance segment underwrites various business insurance products, including large commercial or industrial property insurance, excess liability, inland marine, environmental, workers compensation, and excess and umbrella coverages. This segment also offers various specialized forms of insurance, such as aviation, accident and health, equipment breakdown, directors and officers liability, difference-in-conditions, kidnap-ransom, export credit and political risk, and professional errors and omissions coverages. In addition, it provides property and casualty reinsurance products to insurers; automobile insurance products; residential mortgage guaranty insurance products; and second-lien and private student loan guaranty insurance products. The Life Insurance and Retirement Services segment offers individual and group life, payout annuities, endowment, and accident and health policies, as well as retirement savings products consisting of fixed and variable annuities. The Financial Services segment provides aircraft and equipment leasing, capital market transactions, consumer finance, and insurance premium financing. The Asset Management segment operations comprise investment-related services and investment products, including institutional and retail asset management, broker-dealer services, and spread-based investment products. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in New York, New York.

Edited September 16, 2008 by Yonkers United

[Lurker]

ft kaze da blizu dna kreditne krize... tj. vreme je za kupovinu.

[Budja]

ft kaze da blizu dna kreditne krize... tj. vreme je za kupovinu.

"Blizu" moze da znaci "ima jos do dna". Prodaj.

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

Iako o ekonomiji znam vrlo malo, pre nekoliko meseci sam hteo da startujem topik "Hronika nadolazeće recesije", kada su već počele da masovno kruže priče o njoj. Mislim da je tadašnji okidač bila propast britanske banke Northern Rock, do tada smatrane vrlo prosperitetnom, a koja je, uveliko poljuljana krizom stambenih kredita u USA, poklekla toliko da je Banka Engleska morala da je spasava, a da su ljudi stajali u redovima ispred banke da podignu svoj novac. Ideja je bila da se od tada na tom topiku skupljaju (loše) vesti iz svetske ekonomije, kako vreme ide. Sada mi je baš žao što to nisam uradio, do sada bi imali lepu hronologiju događaja. Moglo bi i na ovom topiku da se nastavi, mada, sad je kriza već duboko zagrizla. U međuvremenu smo imali padove velikih džinova, samo u prošloj nedelji Alitalia i Lehman Brothers juče, kažu da je AIG na izdisaju, a svaki dan se govori o ceni hrane koja je u protekloj godini nenormalno šibnula na gore.Iako će centralna banka Amerike izgleda uleteti da spase AIG, kreditna banka HBOS u Britaniji je izgubila oko 40% vrednosti akcija samo od juče.

[Yonkers United]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rate steady on Tuesday, opting to soothe rattled financial markets with central bank lending and saying it was worried both about economic weakness and price pressures.ADVERTISEMENT The U.S. central bank's unanimous decision leaves the interbank overnight federal funds rate at 2 percent, where it has been since April. It said "downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern," surprising many in financial markets who had expected the Fed to signal greater worries on growth.Investors had begun to speculate this week that the central bank would lower rates in the wake of the bankruptcy of 158-year-old Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE:LEH - News), the sale of investment bank Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - News) to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC - News), and a scramble for cash by insurer American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG - News).U.S. stocks dropped and the value of the dollar rose, while prices for U.S. government bonds held steady after the central bank's decision."Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further," the Fed said in a statement announcing its decision. "Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters," it added.However, the central bank said already low benchmark interest rates and steps it has taken to ease funding strains in credit markets should help to promote economic growth over time.Swift-moving financial developments have rattled global markets and threaten to exacerbate a credit crunch that has already helped push the U.S. economy toward recession.On Sunday, the Fed said it would accept a wider range of collateral, including equities, from investment banks seeking central bank loans in an effort to help keep markets functioning.As Fed officials met, talks aimed at helping AIG through its cash crunch entered a second day at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Officials from the Fed, U.S. Treasury and New York state and financial firms were involved.On Monday, the holding company for Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Bank of America announced it was buying Merrill Lynch. Rival investment bank Bear Stearns narrowly avoided default in March through a cut-rate sale to JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) that the Fed helped facilitate with a $29 billion guarantee on some of Bear's troubled assets.The sharply shifting financial landscape had pulled the rug out from under markets on Monday, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^SPX - News) posting its biggest one-day percentage loss since reopening after the September 11 attacks in 2001.Other markets were also sent reeling and the Fed and other central banks around the globe pumped cash into interbank markets to try to keep them from seizing up.The Fed's emergency weekend action came just a week after the government announced a federal takeover of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and a pledge to inject up to $200 billion in the companies to help keep mortgage markets functioning.A weakening economy hit hard by a housing bust and credit crisis had led the Fed to lower rates by 3.25 percentage points in seven steps from mid-September 2007 to the end of April.But surging energy and commodity prices pushed officials to the sidelines as worries grew on inflation.A government economic stimulus package and demand for U.S. products abroad helped the economy grow at a relatively robust 3.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter. However, growth is expected to flag in the second half of the year as consumer spending dries up and demand for U.S. exports wanes.U.S. employers have shed jobs for eight months in a row, and the unemployment rate hit a five-year high of 6.1 percent in August. Although the dismal jobs picture signals headwinds for the economy, it suggests price pressures could ease.In a sign that the recent bout of energy-led inflation pressures may have peaked, the government said on Tuesday that the consumer price index fell 0.1 percent in August, the first decline in almost two years.As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Fed has tried to distinguish between malfunctioning credit markets and weakening economic growth in charting its policy course. It has taken a range of steps to make credit more broadly available.(Additional reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Tim Ahmann)

[hazard]

AIG nacionalizovan. Fed dao 85 milijardi zajma a zauzvrat dzrava uzima 79.9% firme pod svoje vlasnistvo. Dakle, slicna situacija kao sa Freddie & Fannie. S tim sto F&F poceli kao drzavne firme pa su kasnije privatizovani.Bear Stearns je drzava izvukla, tj. izfinansirala takeover pre nego sto je doslo do bankrota jer je Bear bio firma sa uglavnom americkim klijentima i americkim kreditorima. Da su propali, mnoge americke firme bi to zestoko osetile. S druge strane, Lehman je imao vise inostranih musterija i kreditora (Japanci i sl.) - zato su ih pustili niz vodu. Bankrot AIG-a bi takodje izazvao haos, jer su oni osiguravali ulaganja i zajmove mnogih. Treba dalje imati u vidu da je ovo "upumpavanje" para od strane Fed-a nista drugo nego primarna emisija. Nije bas stampanje para, ali je tu negde.

U međuvremenu smo imali padove velikih džinova, samo u prošloj nedelji Alitalia i Lehman Brothers juče

Alitalia nema mnogo veze sa celom pricom. To je firma koja je vec godinama na izdisaju - i konacno su je visoke cene aviogoriva dotukle. Cela stvar ima vise veze sa samom neefikasnoscu firme i nefleksibilnosti njenih sindikata nego sa trenutnom finansijskom krizom.

[borris_]

Eto sta ti je neoliberalizam. Protive se ucescu drzave u regulisanju trzista, a kad dodje kriza mole drzavu da im pomogne. Igraju se parama bez ikakvoga rizika. Ovdje prvenstveno mislim na direktore tih banaka i brokere koji su najveci krivci ove krize a oni su se osigurali do kraja zivota.Nastave li ovako unistice kapitalizam. To nije moj kapitalizam <_<

Edited September 17, 2008 by borris_

[Indy]

Ima li Fed nesto sa tim? Nikad to nije ni bilo neregulisano, zar ne?

[borris_]

Famozni Greenspan koji je hranio sistem.Kada prodajes vjetar (kako bi rekli francuzi "vendre du vent") automatski dodjes na ovo (u srbiji su to bile piramidalnbe banke ili kako se to vec zove).Problem je sto su bas sve banke prodavale taj vjetar i kada bi po receptu liberalizma (sto u principu i podrzavam) pustio sve niz vodu ne bi ostalo nista. Cisti divlji zapad.

[Budja]

Famozni Greenspan koji je hranio sistem.Kada prodajes vjetar (kako bi rekli francuzi "vendre du vent") automatski dodjes na ovo (u srbiji su to bile piramidalnbe banke ili kako se to vec zove).Problem je sto su bas sve banke prodavale taj vjetar i kada bi po receptu liberalizma (sto u principu i podrzavam) pustio sve niz vodu ne bi ostalo nista. Cisti divlji zapad.

Da, inace samo kapitalisticki sistemi prave vetar i stampaju pare po potrebi. Kakva nebuloza!

[borris_]

Mislim da me nisi razumio.Ja nisam kritikovao kapitalizam koji je po meni najbolji sistem. Kritikujem neoliberalizam koji ce ako ovako nastavi nazalost unistiti kapitalizam.

[Yonkers United]

Za 1,5 sat se otvara NYSE.Videcemo kakva je reakcija na uletanje drzave.Juce je AIG vredeo $3,75 po seru.Ovde bi moglo da se dobro zaradi?Barclays,kupuje Lehman Brothers koji je juce skocio za $0,09 po seru i sada vredi citavih $0,30 ser.Iteresantno za ulaganje isto moze na brzinu da se uzmu pare na malo ulozene.NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers, which a year ago had a market capitalization of more than $33 billion, is now unloading its once-prized businesses for what passes as pocket change on Wall Street.Barclays PLC, the third-largest British bank, took advantage of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy reorganization Tuesday to reach a deal for Lehman's North American investment banking and trading operations for just $250 million.ADVERTISEMENT Barclays also picked up Lehman's New York headquarters and two data centers in New Jersey for $1.5 billion.It marks a major coup for the U.K. bank, which agreed to buy the assets just days after walking away from a deal to purchase all of Lehman.

[djvaske]

Ajde malo da poucite i nas neuke.Koliko vidim svuda padaju banke (i osiguravajuce kompanije) kao Dafiment. Da li me utisak vara, ali cini se da velikiproizvodjaci novca kao sto su petrohemije i slicni giganti nemaju nikakav problem sa "globalnom krizom".Kao da je u stvari pukao balon koji je namerno naduvavan kako bi se poreskim obveznicima uzele parebez povecanja poreza.Nekako mi deluje i da ce cene nafte da se prilicno strovale nazad, sto u sustini nece predstavljati neki veci udarac zazapadne kompanije, koliko za Rusku ekonomiju. Cini se da drzavni aparat USofA "pegla" svoje velike troskove i deficitpreko tudje grbace.Kao sto rekoh nisam nikakav znalac, pa ko voli da pojasni nama sto pitamo i skitamo dobro dosao.

[nautilus]

Nevidljivi forumaski broker je ipak trebao prodati akcije. Dow Jones je pao za skoro 450 poena. U ponedjeljak je pad bio 504 poena.Interesantne za pratiti su akcije Bank of America, naime, iako su kao i sve banke pogodjeni krizom kupili su Merrill Lynch i pitanje je koliko ce pasti.Druga interesantna prica je najavljeno merdzovanje jos dva velika gubitnika ove krize, Wachovia korporacije (banka) i Morgan Stanley. Mozda je u pitanju izvjesna ucjena. Bank of America je sada najveca finansijska institucija u SADu i njihov bankrot bi dotukao ekonomiju. Da bi se to izbjeglo drzava ce intervenisati. Mozda se istom nadaju Wachovia i MS.1 haos.

Edited September 17, 2008 by nautilus

[hazard]

Ajde malo da poucite i nas neuke.Koliko vidim svuda padaju banke (i osiguravajuce kompanije) kao Dafiment. Da li me utisak vara, ali cini se da velikiproizvodjaci novca kao sto su petrohemije i slicni giganti nemaju nikakav problem sa "globalnom krizom".Kao da je u stvari pukao balon koji je namerno naduvavan kako bi se poreskim obveznicima uzele parebez povecanja poreza.Nekako mi deluje i da ce cene nafte da se prilicno strovale nazad, sto u sustini nece predstavljati neki veci udarac zazapadne kompanije, koliko za Rusku ekonomiju. Cini se da drzavni aparat USofA "pegla" svoje velike troskove i deficitpreko tudje grbace.Kao sto rekoh nisam nikakav znalac, pa ko voli da pojasni nama sto pitamo i skitamo dobro dosao.

Ovako. Trenutna kriza rezultat je nekih vrlo losih investicija u kuce, tj. nekretnine tj. real estate market. Da skratimo pricu, u Americi su raznorazni ljudi dobijali zajmove za kupovinu kuca, i ako u sustini nisu bili kreditno sposobni (tzv. sub-prime mortgages i "NINJA" loans - no income, no job, no assets). Nakon sto je pukao tech bubble pocetkom veka, Fed je pogurao ovu kreditnu ekspanziju niskim kamatama nadajuci se da ce kroz rastuci real estate market da spreci recesiju i da kroz kreditnu ekspanziju odrzi potrosnju. Ljudi su npr. uzimali ogromne hipotekarne zajmove na vrednost kuce jer je vrednost nekretnina vrtoglavo rasla (home equity loans). E sad, naravno, dosao je naravno trenutak kada ljudi vise nisu mogli da otplacuju svoje dugove. Krenuli su defaults, kuce su preuzimane od strane banaka (foreclosures). Naravno i samo trziste nekretnina je doslo do tacke zasicenjenja pa su cene pocele da padaju, a narocito kada su se na trzistu nasle gomile oduzetih kuca koje niko nije hteo ili mogao da kupi - neke se prodaju za jedan dolar.E sad, sve to ne bi bilo toliko strasno da ti vrlo rizicni i nisko-kvalitetni dugovi nisu prepakovani u druge finansijske instrumente (derivatives, CDOs) i preprodavani drugim finansijskim institucijama - bankama, investicionim fondovima i sl. Jednostavno receno, dug 1 nezaposlenog americkog crnca (siromasne manjine su se dosta navatale na sub-prime zajmove kao nacin da napokon dodju do kuce u svom vlasnistvu) nasao se u investicionom portfoliju 1 svajcarske banke (npr. UBS). Kada su ljudi prestali da otplacuju dugove, a vrednost kuca pala ispod kolicine dugova, onda su pocele da pucaju sve te investicije. Svi ti finansijski instrumenti, derivatives, postali su manje-vise bezvredni. Nema tu nikakve zavere americke vlade, mislis li ti da americkoj vladi odgovara bankrot 3 od 5 najvecih investicionih banaka u SAD, ili propast najvece osiguravajuce kompanije, ili pumpanje stotina milijardi u Fannie Mae i Freddie Mac bez kojih bi trziste zajmova za kuce u Americi prakticno propalo? Edited September 18, 2008 by hazard