Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Indy]

How fiscal policy does and doesn't work

It's remarkable that the politicians of Europe and America are making things much worse for themselves and their people because they've unlearnt the economic lessons of the past 70 years.... Exercise enough discipline and patience and eventually the budget problem will fix itself.All this had been well understood by economists and politicians for many years. It was how governments responded to the global financial crisis in 2008. But governments in Britain and the euro zone, and the US Congress, are now doing pretty much the opposite.Their economies are still quite weak but they want to increase taxes or - more commonly - slash government spending to get their big budget deficits down in a hurry. In consequence of this policy of "austerity", the European economies are heading back into recession and their deficits getting worse.Why are they doing something so counter-productive? Because their stock of government debt is so unsustainably high. Whereas sensible policy involves running surpluses and reducing debt during the good years, they kept running deficits and piling it up in the noughties.When the global financial crisis struck in 2008, many had to borrow heavily to rescue their banks and then borrow even more to kick-start their economies. Their debt is now so high the financial markets have started wondering whether they'll be able to repay it.But the flighty financial markets are an unreliable guide to good policy: though they seemed to approve when governments announced their austerity programs, they started disapproving when they saw those programs were causing economies to weaken.Of course, when a country's sovereign debt gets so high that markets will soon refuse to lend more to it at any price, it has no choice but austerity. You can renege on your debts, but you can't run a deficit if no one will finance it.Even if some international institution bails you out, it will punish you for your profligacy by insisting on austerity. Will this make things worse long before it makes them better? Inevitably.That's the case of Greece. But most of the European countries aren't in those dire straits, so why are they slashing spending?What they should be doing is promising and laying plans to reduce their spending down the track, as their economies recover and can take it in their stride.Why don't they? Because, after decades of fiscal indiscipline, they don't have much credibility when making promises to be good tomorrow.But that doesn't change economic reality: cut when the economy's weak and you make it weaker. The answer is to find ways of making their promises more credible.As for the Americans, they too have years of fiscal indiscipline and a way-too-high level of debt. But though it suits President Obama's critics to claim the US has a "debt crisis", it doesn't. The world is still so anxious to lend to the US government that the yield (effective interest rate) on its long-term debt is down to 2 per cent.It has plenty of time to get its budgetary house in order but, at present, a hostile Congress has the budget set up to crunch the US economy next year. These guys have learnt nothing.

[dekss]

"Gasoline and petroleum demand recently has plunged more than at any time in the recession. When you see petroleum usage back to numbers in the 1990's, you know there is serious economic trouble no matter what the talking heads say."...Rather, the huge dropoff in gasoline and petroleum usage in the US, coupled with falling shipping rates, a drop in Japanese Exports Three Consecutive Months, and a European Recession poised to get much worse, makes a strong case that a collapse in global trade is underway.

klikda li se to sprema nešto krupno ove godine?

[Yoyogi]

klikda li se to sprema nešto krupno ove godine?

Deksse, to pricamo godinama. Nije bilo porasta potraznje, cak i opadanje, posebno primetno bas kada je 2008. bilo 168$ za barel nafte.Nije potraznja nego stampedo, iracionalan.To isto, iracionalno, moze opet da se desi. Znas kako to trziste radi - kao stoka koja se nagna i pojuri ne znajuci ni zasto ni gde da ide i trazi spas.

[dekss]

Deksse, to pricamo godinama. Nije bilo porasta potraznje, cak i opadanje, posebno primetno bas kada je 2008. bilo 168$ za barel nafte.Nije potraznja nego stampedo, iracionalan.To isto, iracionalno, moze opet da se desi. Znas kako to trziste radi - kao stoka koja se nagna i pojuri ne znajuci ni zasto ni gde da ide i trazi spas.

Pa nisam ja napisao ništa u vezi sa cenom. Zapravo nisam napisao ništa osim što sam citirao po mom mišljenju zanimljiv članak i postavio pitanje. A ni u članku se ne raspravlja o ceni. Zapravo se kaže baš to što i ti tvrdiš: da je potražnja pala i to zajedno sa drugim činjenicama uzima kao indikator da smo na pragu novog udara krize. I meni se to čini logično. A što se tiče tvoje tvrdnje, mogu se ja složiti s njom. Znam, šta hoćeš da kažeš: cenu nafte su odredili špekulanti. Ima istine u tome, ali mislim ne 100%-tno. Ograničenje u proizvodnji definitivno postoji i nećemo dugočekati da se ono pokaže nedvosmisleno.

[Gandalf]

Valentinovo

[Eraserhead]

I opet nikako da objasni kako bi, na primer Italija, finansirala deficit iz bankrota. Prosto neverovatno ignorisanje stanja na terenu.

Imam utisak da Krugman cesto zivi u svom svetu i da jednostavno odbija razumne argumente ako mu se ne uklapaju u pricu koju je zamislio. Pored toga on nesumnjivo cesto zaista ubada vazne tacke ali ih po meni pogresno povezuje.Evo jednog zanimljivog teksta na temu Austerityja od strane Daniela Grosa, direktora CEPS, u kome po meni dobro objasnjava prednosti sece budzetskih deficita:Austerity under attack

[Budja]

Imam utisak da Krugman cesto zivi u svom svetu i da jednostavno odbija razumne argumente ako mu se ne uklapaju u pricu koju je zamislio. Pored toga on nesumnjivo cesto zaista ubada vazne tacke ali ih po meni pogresno povezuje.

Razume Krugman argumente. Nije u tome stvar.Problem je sto je posao profesora zamenio takmicenjem sa raznoraznim kolumnistima, te tako simplifikuje argumente i precutkuje one koji mi ne idu u prilog.

[Dagmar]

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/tema.php?id=132&nav_id=583489

Investicije u Kini i dalje padajuInostrane investicije iz Evrope u Kini opale su za 42,49 odsto u odnosu na prethodnu godinu na 452 miliona dolara, dok su američke investicije porasle za 29,05 odsto na 342 miliona dolara.Investicije iz zemalja azijsko-pacifičkog regiona porasle su za 0,77 odsto na 8,59 milijardi dolara.

Ako je ovo tačno, kako se može objasniti razlika između Evrope i USA, pošto ih ja uvek nekako doživljavam kao da su u sličnom položaju. Da li je možda u pitanju da se u USA Kina percipira kao sigurna investicija, pa "sele" novac tamo, a Evropljani recimo generalno stežu kaiš (ili šalju novac negde drugde)?

[Yoyogi]

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/tema.php?id=132&nav_id=583489Ako je ovo tačno, kako se može objasniti razlika između Evrope i USA, pošto ih ja uvek nekako doživljavam kao da su u sličnom položaju. Da li je možda u pitanju da se u USA Kina percipira kao sigurna investicija, pa "sele" novac tamo, a Evropljani recimo generalno stežu kaiš (ili šalju novac negde drugde)?

Te su brojke male, mnostvo toga je vec preseljeno.Kineska Nova godina, tada firme kojima treba, na primer, 1000 radnika, raspisuju oglase za 2000 radnika. Jer ce od vec prisutne radne snage 1000 otici negde drugde da rade.Kini ne trebaju nove strane investicije nego lokalne, to sami kontrolishu.Edit: glupaci u clanku kazu da je kineska Nova godina upala "neuobicajeno rano". Pa to je lunarna Nova godina, to zavisi od planeta i Meseca. Nikad nije ni rano ni kasno, to Kinezi znaju pa i ne- Kinezi u Azija Pacifiku.Novinari nisu nista sposobniji ili obavesteniji od prosecnih postera po Forumima.Kraj novinarstva? Edited February 19, 2012 by Yoyogi

[Dark Wader]

Pozajmljeno sa drugog foruma, ali prilicno ilustrativno...Iliti what public debt have to do with it at all?What really caused the eurozone crisis?

[bigvlada]

Credit ratings: how Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each countryhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/apr/30/credit-ratings-country-fitch-moodys-standardMi smo stabilni BB- odnosno BB. Moody's nas ne zarezuje.

[Yoyogi]

Credit ratings: how Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each countryMi smo stabilni BB- odnosno BB. Moody's nas ne zarezuje.

Ako uzmemo ne sto sada proricu nego ono sto znamo iz 2008., ti kriminalci nemaju pojma. Vidi kako su pogodili 2008.

[korindjar]

klikda li se to sprema nešto krupno ove godine?

Deksse, to pricamo godinama. Nije bilo porasta potraznje, cak i opadanje, posebno primetno bas kada je 2008. bilo 168$ za barel nafte.Nije potraznja nego stampedo, iracionalan.To isto, iracionalno, moze opet da se desi. Znas kako to trziste radi - kao stoka koja se nagna i pojuri ne znajuci ni zasto ni gde da ide i trazi spas.

what kind of bullshittery is this?ti brojevi mi deluju jako čudno, al videćemo kada izađu zvanične statistike o potrošnji. mislim da ih niko ozbiljan još nije izbacio Edited March 11, 2012 by korindjar

[dekss]

Has the Global Economy Become Less Vulnerable to Oil Price Shocks?...ConclusionThis paper examines the impact of oil price changes on global economic growth. Unlike some of the recent studies, this paper finds that oil price rises have had significant negative impact on world economic growth rates.A time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in real oil price by one dollar is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.04 and 0.1 percent in the following year. Therefore, an increase in real oil price by 10 dollars would be associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.4 and 1% in the following year. For a global economy that in average grows at about 3.5% a year, a reduction of this size is very significant.Moreover, the regressions seem to have suggested that the impact of oil price on economic growth may have increased over the last one or two decades. This is in contradiction with the widely held belief that the global economy has become less vulnerable to oil price shocks.These findings suggest that if the world oil production does peak and start to decline in the near future, it may impose a serious and possibly an insurmountable speed limit on the pace of global economic expansion.

[mandingo]