Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Gandalf]

Shopper-on-Shopper Violence the Best Indicator Our Economy is Alive and WellI'm very relieved to hear of the various incidents of violence brought on by the "doorbusters" and other Black Friday-related narco-shopping come-ons. This mad rush to buy garbage is the single best indication we have that America's consumers (and the economy that belongs to their appetites) are alive and well.A Black Friday where no one dies or is sent to the hospital is a major red flag for those who watch the health of the economy anecdotally as I do.So far we have a pepper spraying at a California Wal-Mart and an actual shooting in South Carolina (also at Wal-Mart). No crushings or tramplings just yet, but you know - fingers crossed.

[aram]

Pa da, to je i Berluskoni pricao za Italiju - restorani prepuni, avioni prebukirani... <_<

[Gandalf]

nije knjiga, vec poduzi esej. 15K reci.The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Betteropis: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/01/growth_2

Americans enjoyed low-hanging land fruit for much of their country's history. Immigrants poured into the American continent and hoovered up cheap land for high-yielding farms, high-yielding mines, and high-yielding cities while Europeans had to go through the slow process of shifting land uses. But these days, those low-hanging land dividends are also gone.But the big setback for society, according to Mr Cowen, is the end of the exploitation of the major innovations of the last two centuries. The 1700s and 1800s yielded revolutionary innovations in industry, chemistry, and electricity. Rich countries spent the 1800s and 1900s figuring out how to exploit those innovations to their fullest, and as recently as the 1950s and 1960s, these experiments were producing products that utterly changed the way people lived. During the lifetime of those born in the 1930s and 1940s, household technology changed fantastically: refrigerators, laundry machines, dishwashers, radios, televisions, electric light, air conditioning, cheap automobiles, and so on. But with a few exceptions (among them computers, on which more later) today's households don't look that much different from their 1970s counterparts. Products have improved, but the development of revolutionary new technologies has slowed substantially. The progress of technology has plateaued.

Edited December 1, 2011 by Gandalf

[Budja]

Krugman potpuno prolupao. Inflacija kao resenje krize u EU i SAD. Ekspanzivna fiskalna i monetarna politika.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/opinion/krugman-killing-the-euro.html?_r=1

[Budja]

nije knjiga, vec poduzi esej. 15K reci.The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Betteropis: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/01/growth_2

U jednom od proslih Economista ima i kriticki osvrt druge strane: da tehnoloski proboj u informacionim tehnologijma nije pratio proboj produktivnosti koji bi se ocekivao i da tu postoji neiskorisceni jaz.

[Gandalf]

U jednom od proslih Economista ima i kriticki osvrt druge strane: da tehnoloski proboj u informacionim tehnologijma nije pratio proboj produktivnosti koji bi se ocekivao i da tu postoji neiskorisceni jaz.

esej je busan na vise mesta, tako da je u sustini laka meta za kritiku. ali su startna teza, i par implikacija koje Cowen naglasava, jako interesantni. posebno imajuci na umu dugacku stagnaciju pre 19-tog veka, i hiljade godina upotrebe istih tehnologija od Troje do Dzejmsa Vata.

[Prospero]

Krugman potpuno prolupao. Inflacija kao resenje krize u EU i SAD. Ekspanzivna fiskalna i monetarna politika.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/opinion/krugman-killing-the-euro.html?_r=1

Sem inflacije nista drugo i ne preostaje. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/12/ecbs-3-year-funding-operation

THE European Central Bank has come under criticism for its failure to act as lender of last resort to embattled sovereigns. Yet when it comes to banks, the traditional recipients of central bank support, the ECB is lender of last resort on steroids. Today, it lent €489 billion to 523 banks at 1%, at its first three-year refinancing operation. It was its largest refinancing ever.Banks used some of that to pay off shorter term loans from the ECB. Even so, net lending of €235 billion brought the ECB’s total loans to banks to almost €1 trillion. Mario Draghi, the ECB president has repeatedly insisted the ECB’s purchases of government bonds were neither “eternal nor infinite”, but that clearly doesn’t apply to its lending to banks. As banks’ private sector funding dries up, the ECB has supplied not just all the short-term funds they need, but all the dollar funds they need (via the revamped swap lines from the Federal Reserve) and now long-term funds as well.

[TBoneSteak]

$100.00 iz 2008 vredi kao $105.08 danassem cekanja na inflaciju nista drugo i ne preostaje

[Indy]

Factors contributing to the ongoing crisis include:

• Derivatives trading (secondary betting trough swaps, futures, options, forwards, employment of financial instruments and practices including Mortgage Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations, Credit Default Swap, etc.)
• Deregulation (leveraged speculative investment / margin lending practices, over-indebtedness, the conversion of financial markets into gambling casinos / casino capitalism, corrupt financial practices, etc.)
• Ponzi-like practices (the conversion of financial and real estate markets into Ponzi-like speculative investment structures / overvalued bubbles resulting from investor demand)
• Privatisations (transferring public wealth to private interests, the conversion of essential public services and assets from serving the public interest to exploiting the public for private profit)
• Predatory lending (honeymoon rates, low documentation loans, etc.)
• Tax minimisation structures and inadequate taxation of the wealthy contributing to diminishing government revenue (humanitarian support is necessary, obscene wealth is not).
• Diminishing credit supply (Banks struggling with funding, Over-indebtedness)
• Accumulation of toxic assets / bad bank debts (the derivatives market is approx $600 trillion)
• Diminishing consumerism (a result of over-indebtedness, limits of Ponzi-like practices being reached, escalating cost of living restricting consumerism, etc.)
• Common currency for different economies
• Escalating sovereign debts (resulting from inadequate taxation of high income earners and corporations diminishing government revenue, not expenditure on necessary humanitarian services)
• Interconnectivity of global financial institutions (resulting in the international contagion of bad debt / potential domino effect)
• Growing wealth disparity (the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich resulting in a diminishing consumer base.)

What we are witnessing is the gradual global transfer of public wealth to private interests (usury capitalism). Tweaking a corrupt financial system will not remove these parasitic and cancerous practices. Until we repudiate (write off) this bad debt, adequately tax the wealthy, restructure our financial practices (adequate regulation, prevent financial markets being used as gambling casinos, prevent Ponzi-like investment practices, expand public ownership of credit facilities) and cease the transfer of public wealth to private banks and institutions, no significant improvement to the situation can occur.The current crisis is arguably likely to be eventually far worse than the great depression recognising the greater magnitude of imbalances including high level of leveraged speculative investment, global Ponzi-like bubbles, over-indebtedness, outstanding derivatives, vast toxic assets (the derivatives market alone is approx. $600 trillion), a diminishing credit supply and level of national debts, being factors that significantly exceed those preceding the Great Depression. No amount of positive thinking (market optimism or confidence building measures) is going to change this situation. Usury practices of profiting through expanding the debt of others are exploitive and predatory while casino capitalism (the conversion of financial markets into gambling casinos) is largely based on leveraged speculative investment practices (Ponzi-like structures) and all Ponzi schemes have their limits.Without the perpetual expansion of debt, our economic model collapses. But perpetual growth is also not possible in a biosphere with finite and depleting resources and with population and pollution limitations. Usury capitalism is an unsustainable model that has short term benefits for some but long term consequences for all. Austerity measures will lead to social unrest and only further restrict economic activity but as the IMF, World Bank and other financial institutions are committed to the ideology of neo-liberalism (and profit through usury capitalism and the expansion of debt), we can only expect business as usual (the transfer wealth from the public to these very same interests) and a gradual economic collapse (with all the social consequences that will go with it) when debt expansion in this finite equation reaches its mathematical limit. In the meantime this situation can be temporarily deferred as the level of debt goes from unpayable to ludicrously unpayable. As we continue to throw vast sums of money into the economic locomotive engine to prevent it stalling, we are starting to realise that the debt fuelled gravy train requires far more fuel than we have and that it is fast approaching an economic abyss with a change of direction being extremely unlikely.

[Sirius]

US Closes 2011 With Record $15.22 Trillion In Debt, Officially At 100.3% Debt/GDPThe Debt to the Penny and Who Holds ItMedju ostalim vestima:

Greece: Clinch bailout or face euro exit(Reuters) - Greece will have to leave the euro zone if it fails to clinch a deal on a second, 130 billion euro bailout with its international lenders, a government spokesman said on Tuesday.

Tesko da ce se desiti ali treba posmatrati.

[noskich]

Factors contributing to the ongoing crisis include:

• Derivatives trading (secondary betting trough swaps, futures, options, forwards, employment of financial instruments and practices including Mortgage Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations, Credit Default Swap, etc.)
• Deregulation (leveraged speculative investment / margin lending practices, over-indebtedness, the conversion of financial markets into gambling casinos / casino capitalism, corrupt financial practices, etc.)
• Ponzi-like practices (the conversion of financial and real estate markets into Ponzi-like speculative investment structures / overvalued bubbles resulting from investor demand)
• Privatisations (transferring public wealth to private interests, the conversion of essential public services and assets from serving the public interest to exploiting the public for private profit)
• Predatory lending (honeymoon rates, low documentation loans, etc.)
• Tax minimisation structures and inadequate taxation of the wealthy contributing to diminishing government revenue (humanitarian support is necessary, obscene wealth is not).
• Diminishing credit supply (Banks struggling with funding, Over-indebtedness)
• Accumulation of toxic assets / bad bank debts (the derivatives market is approx $600 trillion)
• Diminishing consumerism (a result of over-indebtedness, limits of Ponzi-like practices being reached, escalating cost of living restricting consumerism, etc.)
• Common currency for different economies
• Escalating sovereign debts (resulting from inadequate taxation of high income earners and corporations diminishing government revenue, not expenditure on necessary humanitarian services)
• Interconnectivity of global financial institutions (resulting in the international contagion of bad debt / potential domino effect)
• Growing wealth disparity (the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich resulting in a diminishing consumer base.)

What we are witnessing is the gradual global transfer of public wealth to private interests (usury capitalism). Tweaking a corrupt financial system will not remove these parasitic and cancerous practices. Until we repudiate (write off) this bad debt, adequately tax the wealthy, restructure our financial practices (adequate regulation, prevent financial markets being used as gambling casinos, prevent Ponzi-like investment practices, expand public ownership of credit facilities) and cease the transfer of public wealth to private banks and institutions, no significant improvement to the situation can occur.The current crisis is arguably likely to be eventually far worse than the great depression recognising the greater magnitude of imbalances including high level of leveraged speculative investment, global Ponzi-like bubbles, over-indebtedness, outstanding derivatives, vast toxic assets (the derivatives market alone is approx. $600 trillion), a diminishing credit supply and level of national debts, being factors that significantly exceed those preceding the Great Depression. No amount of positive thinking (market optimism or confidence building measures) is going to change this situation. Usury practices of profiting through expanding the debt of others are exploitive and predatory while casino capitalism (the conversion of financial markets into gambling casinos) is largely based on leveraged speculative investment practices (Ponzi-like structures) and all Ponzi schemes have their limits.Without the perpetual expansion of debt, our economic model collapses. But perpetual growth is also not possible in a biosphere with finite and depleting resources and with population and pollution limitations. Usury capitalism is an unsustainable model that has short term benefits for some but long term consequences for all. Austerity measures will lead to social unrest and only further restrict economic activity but as the IMF, World Bank and other financial institutions are committed to the ideology of neo-liberalism (and profit through usury capitalism and the expansion of debt), we can only expect business as usual (the transfer wealth from the public to these very same interests) and a gradual economic collapse (with all the social consequences that will go with it) when debt expansion in this finite equation reaches its mathematical limit. In the meantime this situation can be temporarily deferred as the level of debt goes from unpayable to ludicrously unpayable. As we continue to throw vast sums of money into the economic locomotive engine to prevent it stalling, we are starting to realise that the debt fuelled gravy train requires far more fuel than we have and that it is fast approaching an economic abyss with a change of direction being extremely unlikely.

Sta je bre ovo Indi, odusto si od liberalizma a?

[Indy]

Da, postao sam marksista.

[noskich]

Da, postao sam marksista.

I vreme je bilo da ukapiras neke stvari.

[Indy]

Pa sta da ti kazem, citam ja tvoje postove. Valjda nesto i udje u ovu tikvu.

[Sirius]

Sta imamo u par dana nove godine:-Nemacka ima negativni GDP u Q4-UPDATE 2-German economy shrank in Q4 as crisis weighs-Spanija promasila budzetski deficit na gore. Ocekivano 6%, sigurno na 8% a mozda ce biti i gore. Drugim recima, mere stednje nisu dale razultat.-Grcka promasila budzetski deficit na gore, za sada za 0.5%(9.6%) verujem da ce u stavrnosti biti 10%.-Grcka ne moze da se dogovori sa privatnim investitorima oko otpisivanja 50% duga. Hedz fondovi ulelteli u obveznice i sada ucenjuju EU debile iz Brisela jer su mnogo lajali. Gazda, gazda duso, bio sam i ostacu , mislis da za tobom suzu jednu pusticu... -U SAD se i dalje igraju sa statistikom pa posle kazu izvninte, slucajnosti:Housing Crisis Much Worse Than Thought

As it turns out the NAR has been Cooking their books, err, I mean counted the homes sales wrong.Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

Malo su lagali ;) . Sada malo stimaju nezaposlenost,pre izbora, mora se. :)