Svetska Kriza 2008-....

[Anduril]

A sta da rade, podignu revoluciju, pobiju bankare ?Doduse ova prva ideja mi je sve simpaticnija.

Pa nisi daleko od istine. Dobro je poznato da radikalnih reformi tesko da moze biti bez neke forme nasilja. Politicari uglavnom gledaju da sacuvaju status kvo do trenutka kad shvate da bi nasilje moglo ugroziti njihovu vlast i tek tada obicno krecu u radikalne/ideoloske reforme.Zato bi moj predlog recimo bio nesto kao occupy wallstreet ali u pravom smislu te recenice. Dakle, fizicki napad i zaposedanje centralne banke i velikih poslovnih banaka povezanih sa njom. Cinjenica je da ta gospoda zive i grade od monopola kreacije novca koji su im gradjani preko politicara dali a oni su to debelo zloupotrebili. Isti ti gradjani treba i oduzmu taj monopol - ako treba i fizickom silom. Vreme diskusija i javnih rasprava je bilo pa proslo bez nekih sustinskih promena. Ocigledno su potrebni neki drugi metodi. Edited October 28, 2011 by Anduril

[Sirius]

Kko sam ja shvatio ovo nije stampanje para (francuzi su to predlagali ali Njemci niu htjeli da cuju za to).

Trenutno ne, sada pokusavaju da nadju kreditore da bi izbegli stampanje. Sa druge strane to nosi druge rizike.Obama, pa ni Fed, ne smeju pred izbore da ulaze u bailout EU jer ce ih GOP pojesti. EU se okrece Kinezima i Rusima. Rusi tu nece ulaziti, Kinezi imaju zahteve: da se vise ne govori o njihovoj manipulaciji Juanom(veci izvoz) i da se skinu carinske barijere. Ako se to prihvati u zamenu za kreditiranje dugova EU onda ce patiti Nemci posto njihov izvoz u zemlje EU iznosi 2/3 njihovo ukupnog izvoza(sjajna je stvar taj evro i EMU za Nemce, odlicno su odradili celu stvar kada se pogleda rast izvoza Nemacke od uvodjenja evra).Uglavnom, neko ce patiti. Ako se prihvate Kinezi to ce pogoditi i Amere jer ce Kinezi prodavati US T bonds(doduse, to se vec desava) i nemacki izvoz sto ce usporiti celu Evropu, a svakako ce biti slab rast i bez toga mozda i recesija.Ako ne nadju kreditorai/delimicno nadju bice print, print, print, sto je po meni izvesnije. Uostalom, 1 trilion nije dovoljan. Bice stampanja a evro nije king of the world-$, a inflacija ce divljati Evropom u kombinaciji sa slabim rastom, hm zanimljivo ;)

[Sirius]

Prihvatljivost velicine paketa kroz vreme: :P

[brusli]

Zato bi moj predlog recimo bio nesto kao occupy wallstreet ali u pravom smislu te recenice. Dakle, fizicki napad i zaposedanje centralne banke i velikih poslovnih banaka povezanih sa njom.

Ovde bi bilo krvi do kolena, jer je ovo napad na sam centar interesnih grupa, kao u komunizmu da neko napadne zgradu centralnog komiteta :).Moje je misljenje da ce se sistem urusiti sam od sebe, jednostavno kad vise ne bude ni tolikog profita od stampanja love (kada zveknu E i $), pa finansijskoj mafiji ne bude vise ni u interesu da se sukobljava sa sirotinjom rajom, jer su u medjuvremenu iscedili sve sto se iscediti moze.Vreme velikih revolucija je proslo, suvise je liberalni kapitalizam usavrsio ispiranje mozga... Edited October 28, 2011 by brusli

[Daytrader]

Kad i bradata beba potegne sl QE ima da bude veselo. (cool mu ovaj Burberry stil )Evropa odlozila problem do sl god, to je totalna besmislica. Angeli ce trebati onaj zidarski metar sl put, tesko ce to samo rukama moci da pokaze. (kad se Wolfgang ekipa leshinara obrushi na Toto Cutugno-a, zdruzeno, Unite, Unite...)Peace.

[Budja]

Zapravo, meni nije jasno zasto se anglosaksonski mediji toliko obrusavaju na Nemacku koja jedino brani ekonomsku logiku.Nemacka logicno brani sebe, nije blesava da preuzme rizike i dug koji bi na dugi rok poklopili i njenu ekonomiju. Zato, iako ponizavajuce, jeste logicno da se mole Kinezi umesto da se stampaju pare.

[Sirius]

Old IRA poentira:

"Why is it acceptable to write down Greek debt, when the Irish pay private bankers' debts?" Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, said in parliament on Oct. 25.

I, sta da mu odgovore kada je u pravu? Uzgred, M1(money supply) u Portugalu pao 21% u poslednjih sest meseci a Spanija 8.4%. Nemam para druze a nemam ni srece... :(

[bergasa19]

Paul Krugman

[Anduril]

Paul Krugman

Kakva je ovo budala. Zalosno je sto neko tamo gore slusa ovakve stetocine.

[brusli]

Paul Krugman

Ovaj koliko vidim predlaze stampanje love i davanje njegovim kompanjonima bankarima.Simpatican cova... jos i dobitnik Nobelove nagrade... dobro se svet i drzi kakvi ga vode...Imam ja predlog za takve prevarante, ako vec treba da se stampa lova, onda lepo nek izracunaju potrebnu sumu, podele sa brojem drzavljana doticne zemlje (EU, USA svejedno) i svima uplata na racun.Ko Dinkiceve besplatne akcije :)

[Gandalf]

How cognitive illusions blind us to reason

I had been invited to speak to a group of investment advisers in a firm that provided financial advice and other services to very wealthy clients. I asked for some data to prepare my presentation and was granted a small treasure: a spreadsheet summarising the investment outcomes of some 25 anonymous wealth advisers, for each of eight consecutive years. Each adviser's score for each year was his (most of them were men) main determinant of his year-end bonus. It was a simple matter to rank the advisers by their performance in each year and to determine whether there were persistent differences in skill among them and whether the same advisers consistently achieved better returns for their clients year after year.To answer the question, I computed correlation coefficients between the rankings in each pair of years: year 1 with year 2, year 1 with year 3, and so on up through year 7 with year 8. That yielded 28 correlation coefficients, one for each pair of years. I knew the theory and was prepared to find weak evidence of persistence of skill. Still, I was surprised to find that the average of the 28 correlations was 0.01. In other words, zero. The consistent correlations that would indicate differences in skill were not to be found. The results resembled what you would expect from a dice-rolling contest, not a game of skill.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Gandalf

[rajka]

How cognitive illusions blind us to reason

takodje sam svojevremeno nasla na sajtu iShares-a:

Black Rock has done a 10 year study on actively managed mutual funds to check the persistency of outperformers. They made a selection of managers who had outperformed the market on a one year basis and compared it with their performance over the following two years.Study shows that although between 20 and 35 percent of managers manage to beat the market in any one year, only a few percent (between 3% and 4% on average) can do it for 3 years in a row.

[bigvlada]

Logično, trgovanje je ultramaraton, ne trka na 100 metara.

[Tribun_Populi]

Hausman: Srbiju čeka ubrzani razvojIZVOR: POLITIKABeograd -- Profesor Rikardo Hausman, tvorac mapa ekonomskih klastera, predviđa izuzetno ubrzani razvoj srpske ekonomije u sledećih 10 godina.

Believe it or not. Ceo atlas sa objašnjenjima i prikazom ovde.

[Gandalf]

Logično, trgovanje je ultramaraton, ne trka na 100 metara.

Statistics lessons from The Drunkard’s WalkBill Miller was that fund manager. The probability that his long term success was simply down to luck was widely quoted as 1 in 372,529 (or 0.00026%). But this is the chance that if we had singled him out at the start of his 15 year streak, then followed his performance, and his only, for 15 years, that luck alone explained his success. In fact this is a startling example of silent evidence. At the beginning of his 15 year ‘winning’ streak there were literally thousands of fund managers in the race to beat the market. It is only in retrospect that we praised Miller and forgot the rest. So the question then becomes what are the chances that one of these thousands of starters will beat the market for 15 consecutive years.Since he was praised as the only fund manager in the past 40 years to beat the market for so long, Mlodinow then calculates that if 1000 fund managers (a huge underestimate) are in the race, that one of them will beat the market for a 15 year period by chance alone is around 75%. Conservatively, that means that it is 75% likely that Miller’s success was simply random chance, and only a 25% chance his skill contributed at all. Edited November 9, 2011 by Gandalf